Has the North been given a raw deal

[Andyh82]

So when it was announced Northern were finally getting new rolling stock and the pacers were being withdrawn, it was seen as a fairly decent deal.

But now we've had the Greater Anglia new franchise announced, and now the new Wales & Borders franchise announced with almost entirely new fleets as part of their deals. Including for the latter they've some how justified replacing the class 175s

So on the face of it Northern have now got a poor deal, and we've gone from it being an embarrassment as being the place that operates the vast majority of pacers to in a few years, the only operator to still run the vast majority of class 150s, which are not much better.

Surely Northern should be receiving all available soon to be spare modern DMUs and replacing the 150s, but will the franchise spec allow it?

 

[DarloRich]

what is wrong with a 150?

 

[Bertie the bus]

Your entire question is wrong. The TOC, when bidding, makes the proposal. So what Northern have got/will get is exactly what Arriva said in the bid.

The question is has the north of England been given a raw deal.

 

[superalbs]

Northern have gotten plenty of stock from other operators, more on the way, including from those who still needed it.

So I'm going to say no, maybe not.

 

[njamescouk]

i dream of a 150

 

[Andyh82]

Your entire question is wrong. The TOC, when bidding, makes the proposal. So what Northern have got/will get is exactly what Arriva said in the bid.

The question is has the north of England been given a raw deal.

What’s to say that other bidders may have proposed more though, and it was thrown out for being too expensive, or that nobody did because they knew they would lose if they proposed lots.

I’m sure commuter services into Manchester, Leeds, Sheffield are just as busy if not busier than those into Cardiff, yet the former will still be mostly operated by class 150s which even when refurbished still Feel like an ancient BR era train just with a lick of paint.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

In 2014, the DfT Permanent Secretary had to be told in writing (and in public) by the SoS to allow new trains to figure in the Northern ITT (and removal of the Pacers), because there was "no business case".
Nobody questions that now, I think mainly because new build is seen as more economical than maintaining old trains till they fall apart (the BR and SRA model).
GA (WMT is similar) is slightly different because it is a healthier franchise than Northern financially, and getting a consistent fleet benefitted the rural DMU lines.
W&B was considered a basket case like Northern in 2003 when the ATW franchise was awarded, so got no new stock either (bar TPE's cast-off 175s).
I personally doubt it would have got as good a deal as it has today if the DfT had still been in charge of it.
Devolution politics has worked in this case.
However, the economics of W&B is still very shaky, with (probably) lower growth and prospects than Northern.
But the WG is more prepared to subsidise the operation than DfT is for Northern.
Also remember the spend "in the north" covers TPE as well, who are getting a nearly new "intercity" fleet across many northern routes.

 

[Darandio]

Also remember the spend "in the north" covers TPE as well, who are getting a nearly new "intercity" fleet across many northern routes.

I wondered how long it would take. Given the thread was specifically about 'Northern' and not the 'North' i'd have said this was completely irrelevant, but then the thread title was changed.

Credit where credit is due this time though, last time those in 'Northernland' were told to be thankful because we had both Voyagers and Class 185's and they were nearly new. Completely ignoring the delapidated/dirty/unreliable Northern fleet, the fleet that many of us rely on and have no need to go near the Crosscountry and TPE fleet in order to commute. The Northern fleet is the issue here.

 

[TRAX]

Is there a way of satisfying anyone and everyone ?

 

[Darandio]

Is there a way of satisfying anyone and everyone ?

Not really, someone always loses out in some way.

What I take issue with is when people see the replacement of a 30+ year old DMU with a 30+ year old DMU and call it progress.

 

[underbank]

Not really, someone always loses out in some way.

What I take issue with is when people see the replacement of a 30+ year old DMU with a 30+ year old DMU and call it progress.

Should be thankful there are fewer crammed single carriage sprinters around - I've not seen one for over a week! Don't know whether we've seen the last of them or whether they're just being replaced by spare 2 carriage DMUs from cancelled services temporarily. Let's hope the former and not the latter. It's been nice to get a seat when a train has actually run!

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I wondered how long it would take. Given the thread was specifically about 'Northern' and not the 'North' i'd have said this was completely irrelevant, but then the thread title was changed.
Credit where credit is due this time though, last time those in 'Northernland' were told to be thankful because we had both Voyagers and Class 185's and they were nearly new. Completely ignoring the delapidated/dirty/unreliable Northern fleet, the fleet that many of us rely on and have no need to go near the Crosscountry and TPE fleet in order to commute. The Northern fleet is the issue here.

The Northern and TPE franchises were specified, bid and let together under one DfT initiative (and funding package).
You can't take one without the other. Some routes were swapped as well.
I endured a 40-mile Northern Pacer ride today, so I know what people have to put up with at the moment.
But you obviously forgot these are heading for the dustbin within 18 months and everything else will be refurbished (if not new).

 

[Andyh82]

Surely Northern must be now able to take on all the 158s, 175s from ATW and the spare 185s from TPE, as there aren’t many other places left.

Of course the only other regional TOC in a poor position stock wise is the regional part of EMT. I await the news that they will get a completely new fleet as well soon!

 

[driver_m]

Maybe Nexus could fund replacing the stock up there with the redundant 175's which could placate them a bit seeing as they aren't happy with getting 158's.

 

[Darandio]

But you obviously forgot these are heading for the dustbin within 18 months and everything else will be refurbished (if not new).

There will be little new to see over this side. If you believe replacing my old Class 142 with an equally ancient Class 150 should fill me with joy then i'm sorry to disappoint.

 

[DanNCL]

Maybe Nexus could fund replacing the stock up there with the redundant 175's which could placate them a bit seeing as they aren't happy with getting 158's.

It would be nice if that did happen!

IIRC there are just the right number of 175s to operate every service in the North East as well, allowing the 156s to move to the North West providing desperately needed extra capacity.

Unfortunately I can't see it being likely to happen but it would be nice if it did!

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Surely Northern must be now able to take on all the 158s, 175s from ATW and the spare 185s from TPE, as there aren’t many other places left.
Of course the only other regional TOC in a poor position stock wise is the regional part of EMT. I await the news that they will get a completely new fleet as well soon!

Only if Northern can pay for them.
They might be able to swap older for newer/better, but a fleet increase (number of vehicles) is unlikely without a new business case.
The ROSCOs will lease to the TOCs with the readies.
If the replaced stock has just been refurbished that makes it even more unlikely, unless another TOC wants to take them.
It's just how franchising/leasing deals work.

 

[Domh245]

Of course the only other regional TOC in a poor position stock wise is the regional part of EMT. I await the news that they will get a completely new fleet as well soon!

And GWR's devon & cornwall services!

 

[47802]

I think the short answer is no, Northern is getting rid of Railbuses and a reasonable amount of new stock, the key point is the Northern franchise is up for renewal in the mid 2020's where you expect the BR generation Sprinters to be replaced in the next franchise, the Welsh franchise is for 15 years and you would expect all the BR generation Sprinters to be replaced during the course of that franchise, and of course for all the Welsh Franchise is getting plenty of new trains at least Northern isn't getting any D trains

 

[Chester1]

The Northern franchise runs until 2025 and the W&B until 2033. Its not comparing like with like. The 150/155/156 will be life expired early in the next Northern franchise making their replacement very likely. I am not sure about the 158s or 319/769s though. I also think Northern will lease the 2 car 175s to meet part of their 2022 requirement of 18 x 2 coach units equivalent to 170s. W&B is not getting all brand new either, they are receiving cascaded 230s, 170s and Mark IVs.

 

[tbtc]

It would be nice if that did happen!

IIRC there are just the right number of 175s to operate every service in the North East as well, allowing the 156s to move to the North West providing desperately needed extra capacity.

Unfortunately I can't see it being likely to happen but it would be nice if it did!

Nice idea!

As I said on the Welsh thread, I'm not sure about Northern taking on 175s, given that they'll have...

• two coach 90mph DMUs (158s)
• three coach 90mph DMUs (158s)
• three coach 100mph DMUs (170s)
• two coach 100mph DMUs (195s)
• three coach 100mph DMUs (195s)
• plus possibly some three coach 100mph DMUs (185s)

Whether you want to add two coach 100mph DMUs (175s) and three coach 100mph DMUs (175s) into that collection may divide people on here, but Northern's real problem is with the large number of "local" train services, where there's no running above 75mph - there are a handful of "flagship" routes that require something like a 195 (Bradford to Nottingham, Sheffield to Hull, Barrow to Manchester Airport) but most of the longer distance higher speed services in these parts are run by other TOCs (or EMUs).

The Northern franchise runs until 2025 and the W&B until 2033. Its not comparing like with like. The 150/155/156 will be life expired early in the next Northern franchise making their replacement very likely. I am not sure about the 158s or 319/769s though. I also think Northern will lease the 2 car 175s to meet part of their 2022 requirement of 18 x 2 coach units equivalent to 170s. W&B is not getting all brand new either, they are receiving cascaded 230s, 170s and Mark IVs.

Fair points - I can imagine the wailing/ gnashing on here if Northern had got 230s - thankfully the Welsh have ordered just enough new stock for the arrival of the D-trains to have gone under the radar.

 

[DanNCL]

Nice idea!

As I said on the Welsh thread, I'm not sure about Northern taking on 175s, given that they'll have...

• two coach 90mph DMUs (158s)
• three coach 90mph DMUs (158s)
• three coach 100mph DMUs (170s)
• two coach 100mph DMUs (195s)
• three coach 100mph DMUs (195s)
• plus possibly some three coach 100mph DMUs (185s)

Whether you want to add two coach 100mph DMUs (175s) and three coach 100mph DMUs (175s) into that collection may divide people on here, but Northern's real problem is with the large number of "local" train services, where there's no running above 75mph - there are a handful of "flagship" routes that require something like a 195 (Bradford to Nottingham, Sheffield to Hull, Barrow to Manchester Airport) but most of the longer distance higher speed services in these parts are run by other TOCs (or EMUs).

I think the negatives of introducing an additional unit type to the fleet (175) would be outweighed by the benefits of having just one unit type based at Heaton (175) as opposed to the current two (142 and 156), and the benefits of having all of the 156s at Newton Heath. Coradia units were until recently maintained at Heaton (GC's 180s), so there's already a good amount of maintenance knowledge there that could be applied to maintaining the 175s. From a maintenance point of view I think introducing the 175s in the North East and moving the 156s to the North West in turn would actually be more efficient than keeping the current arrangements.

Agreed that it's unlikely to happen, but I personally think it would be quite practical.

 

[Chester1]

One thing I think is possible but very unlikely to result from this could be ETMS in the Castlefield corridor. There are 24 x 2 coach ETMS 158s with maybe 10 years left in them now available for Northern to lease. There would be problems obtaining enough ETMS EMUs but those would be enough DMUs. TPE won't be running 185s through Piccadilly 13-14 and Oxford Road and the new units can be installed with ETMS.

 

[Rail Blues]

The Northern and TPE franchises were specified, bid and let together under one DfT initiative (and funding package).
You can't take one without the other. Some routes were swapped as well.
I endured a 40-mile Northern Pacer ride today, so I know what people have to put up with at the moment.
But you obviously forgot these are heading for the dustbin within 18 months and everything else will be refurbished (if not new).

But the argument that Northern should make do with near life expired cast offs is that the franchise as a whole requires a large subsidy, which is true enough. But when the more profitable inter regional services in that region are hived off into a seperate company (TPE) then it shouldn't be a surprise that this is the case. The argument that GA and WMR warrant substantial quantaties of new stock across their local and commuter services and regional services, as they cost the tax payer less, is based on a flawed and artificial comparison. If WMR lost the LNWR services and GA the Norwich to London, they'd be more dependent on the taxpayer. Yet their local services already have on the whole, better quality rolling stock than Northern and when they get their new fleets, the disparity will be even more stark.

 

[modernrail]

I think my biggest problems are as follows:

1. Northern is being forced to operate one of the most mixed fleets on the network and that mixed fleet is old. Surely that is more expensive to do - and that translates to the subsidy required to run the franchise.

2. I would love to see a breakdown of the subsidy per route for northern. For instance, are any of the electric routes from Leeds profitable? There is obviously an argument that there is pent up demand in the north as people chose to use their cars. Would better quality rolling stock mixed with congestion charging bring about a true modal shift.

3. Northern are botching the refurbishment. A uniform approach to seating etc would produce a better product.

4. The main problem with the 15x is actually engine noise for me. I am currently in my hotel next to Piccadilly and I can tell whenever a 15x pulls in to platform 13/14 without looking out of the window. People don't want to get out of their cars into a 15x.

15x's are clearly old. Their equivalent electrics, which should last longer, are all being withdrawn before we will see the end of the 15x's. However I would also acknowledge the fact that there are lots of EMU's coming off lease and new traction possibilities on the horizon. Therefore, I could live with the 15x for a few more years if there was the possibility of sending lots of otherwise redundant EMU's retractioned and refurbished to the north IF AND ONLY IF that is a substantially cheaper way of increasing capacity further on northern at a SIGNIFICANTLY lower cost than new stock. The problem with the current rolling stock market is that we are not allowed to have a transparent discussion about all this because of all the confidentiality, and so we are all say here thinking is the north being shafted yet again or not.

 

[rich r]

Also the Northern franchise covers a large area with different requirements - around Manchester there are plentiful wired routes and lots of stations close together, into Cumbria the distances between stations is much bigger and the electricity disappears. Even looking at just the Leeds area there's a big difference between west of Leeds (electricity available, stations close, with tunnels and hills) and east of Leeds (no wires, stations further apart, dead flat).

Where I commute each day (Selby to Leeds) on Northern it's invariably a 142, 150 or 153, occasionally 144 or 158. Usually two carriages, sometimes three and very rarey one (which just doesn't work at all). The TPE 185 runs about 10 minutes later than the Northern and gets to Leeds/Selby just before the Northern. So I'm lucky in that I do have a choice.

 

[underbank]

Would better quality rolling stock mixed with congestion charging bring about a true modal shift.

Not just better rolling stock but a better timetable could improve passenger numbers massively. Take the Carnforth to Leeds line - not only very slow but also a sparse timetable. Given the congestion across the Pennine corridor, this would be an ideal "relief" route for inter-city between Lancaster/Preston and Leeds to reduce passenger numbers around the congested Manchester - a faster train and fewer stops would massively reduce the time and make the line far more popular.

I live in Carnforth and travel to Yorkshire a lot for work. A lot of the time, the rail journey planner gives routes via the Pennines (changing at Manchester) rather than the far more direct route on the Carnforth<>Leeds line, simply due to timings/timetable. I compare car against train whenever I have to go to a different place and 9 times out of 10, the car is a far quicker option - not just by a few minutes, the latest route I checked was going to take 4 hours by train and only 2 by car!

Just because existing routes/lines are "quiet" doesn't mean that there isn't a demand and that they wouldn't be more viable given better trains/timings/timetables etc.

 

[Chester1]

If Northern suddenly decided to replace the sprinters then what would they be replaced with? Dozens of extra 195s? We need to see whats happening with electrification, Alstom's hydrogen train prototype and see how battery technology develops because it is not quite ready yet. Stipulating sprinter replacement for a 2025-2033 franchise sounds about right timing.

 

[Bletchleyite]

If Northern suddenly decided to replace the sprinters then what would they be replaced with? Dozens of extra 195s?

I still think a small fleet of Stadler bi-modes for the Lakes and Cumbrian services would make a lot of sense, given how much running under the wires they do.

 

[Bornin1980s]

Exactly, I've always felt that new diesels should be bi-modes, or at least have electric transmission. I understand Stadler was the losing bidder for the new trains. That said, I suspect Spain and Wales need the jobs more than Switzerland.

My real problem with the order is that they did not order a new diesel for every pacer. Instead, they seem to have planned on a net loss of diesels while trying to expand services. You cannot rely entirely on electrification and cascades of 1980something technology.

I just didn't expect the folly to hit them so soon.