Wales & Borders Franchise Consultation

[gareth950]

So do we think all will be revelaed within the next 4 weeks, or will another excuse be found to delay the announcment even longer?
Remember, it was orginally due last December, was then pushed back to March, and then again to 'the end of May'.
They must have chosen the winning bidder by now, there's only 2 to choose from!

 

[Gareth Marston]

So do we think all will be revelaed within the next 4 weeks, or will another excuse be found to delay the announcment even longer?
Remember, it was orginally due last December, was then pushed back to March, and then again to 'the end of May'.
They must have chosen the winning bidder by now, there's only 2 to choose from!

Unfortunately yes that's the intent my sources say they fear the political damage of not doing it. However the transfer of powers over the core valley lines is still not done.

 

[gareth950]

Unfortunately yes that's the intent my sources say they fear the political damage of not doing it. However the transfer of powers over the core valley lines is still not done.

They have 2 options: announce a winner and reveal all, or give ATW an extension and scrap the competition. Keeping pretense of "it will be world class, transformative etc but we're not telling you how, just trust us and stop the questioning" will not be politically or otherwise acceptable any longer.
Core Valley lines still not transferred? Maybe it never will be. I mean why would DfT and NR agree to hand over a network that they'd just spent hundreds of millions of £s renewing knowing WG want to mothball that investment straight away.

 

[IanXC]

They have 2 options: announce a winner and reveal all, or give ATW an extension and scrap the competition. Keeping pretense of "it will be world class, transformative etc but we're not telling you how, just trust us and stop the questioning" will not be politically or otherwise acceptable any longer.
Core Valley lines still not transferred? Maybe it never will be. I mean why would DfT and NR agree to hand over a network that they'd just spent hundreds of millions of £s renewing knowing WG want to mothball that investment straight away.

I have wondered whether the transfer is all gummed up in the finances.

Network Rail will hold the Core Valley lines assets in the Regulated Asset Base, and the DfT will have to account for the loss of these assets from Network Rail. I wonder if the DfT are telling the Welsh Government that the price of the transfer is the cost held in the accounts... which of course will include the very recent re-signalling project.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I have wondered whether the transfer is all gummed up in the finances.

Network Rail will hold the Core Valley lines assets in the Regulated Asset Base, and the DfT will have to account for the loss of these assets from Network Rail. I wonder if the DfT are telling the Welsh Government that the price of the transfer is the cost held in the accounts... which of course will include the very recent re-signalling project.

So it has a price tag?

 

[IanXC]

So it has a price tag?

Technically yes, the assets are part of the Regulated Asset Base so there will be a value assigned to it.

I don't know that it "has a price" as such, but I suspect it may look like that.

 

[Dai Corner]

Technically yes, the assets are part of the Regulated Asset Base so there will be a value assigned to it.

I don't know that it "has a price" as such, but I suspect it may look like that.

A possible parallel: Ken Skates said in a letter to my AM that the WG would not contribute towards the Severn Crossings unless they were transferred to them (presumably free of charge), together with the money to maintain them. This was before the last election after the Conservatives had pledged to end the tolls.

If Skates was expecting a similar deal with the core Valley Lines and Grayling was expecting some money for them I can see there might be more than a small disagreement to overcome.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Technically yes, the assets are part of the Regulated Asset Base so there will be a value assigned to it.

I don't know that it "has a price" as such, but I suspect it may look like that.

Well the Welsh Government will want it free of charge of course but some financial hockey pocky will be the Treasurys/ DFT' s position a reduction in the block grant to "pay for it" will have them in a twist down at the Bay.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

There's a piece in May Modern Railways by Rhodri Clark about the upgrade of the North Wales main line signalling (Connah's Quay to Colwyn Bay).
It wanders about a bit but asserts that Wales would get £1 billion more for rail if NR divided up the GB budget on a mileage basis.
ie NR chooses to spend more of its its money in England (round London really).
This seems like another Welsh chip-on-shoulder moan, but there's some truth in it.
It also says the western end of the line (Llandudno Jn-Holyhead) will remain semaphore-operated, because it just goes on indefinitely, while the newer signalling around Cardiff gets yet newer signalling because the "modern" 1960s installation is life expired.
I think that's also the logic which keeps Severn Bridge Jn box in business.
But most depressing is the repeated de-spec of the "upgrade", as NR capped the project budget and built down to it.
It is for ever "enabling" higher speeds, services and frequencies, but requires more investment to deliver anything concrete.
It says there are two communications links to Cardiff ROC, one via the Central Wales line, the other via the West Midlands.
How does that work? What work on the ground was necessary for it?
A winter Sunday service to Llandudno seems as far away as ever, as the branch was dropped from the resignalling project.

 

[gareth950]

I never, ever thought I'd be relying on Grayling & the DfT to dig in his heels deep enough to save Cardiff and the Valleys from one of the most ill conceived and ill thought out Welsh Govt transport projects ever. (I'm talking about the 'Core Valley lines' debacle, not the idea of a Metro itself)
If he does, we lost Arriva and specifically Abeillo from the contest for no good reason.

 

[Llandudno]

How many extra staff (excluding drivers and guards) are required to open the Llandudno branch on winter Sundays for say, 14 hours 0800-2200?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

How many extra staff (excluding drivers and guards) are required to open the Llandudno branch on winter Sundays for say, 14 hours 0800-2200?

Well you need 2 signal boxes open (Deganwy and Llandudno), as well as train crew and the station staff.

 

[Llandudno]

Not sure you would extra station staff, The beautifully refurbished Llandudno station is completely closed off after 3pm Monday to Saturday, so wouldn’t need staffing on a Sunday
Deganwy station is unstaffed obviously, and Llandudno Junction is staffed for mainline trains in any case.
Deganwy signal box has to open to operate the level crossing, but does Llandudno box need to open for a basic hourly service?

 

[HH]

It wanders about a bit but asserts that Wales would get £1 billion more for rail if NR divided up the GB budget on a mileage basis.
ie NR chooses to spend more of its its money in England (round London really).
This seems like another Welsh chip-on-shoulder moan, but there's some truth in it.

I'd be very surprised if this were not the case - what's the usage of Welsh track compared to that around London?

 

[Del1977]

I'd be very surprised if this were not the case - what's the usage of Welsh track compared to that around London?

Yes - I was very sceptical of that statement too.

 

[6Gman]

I'd be very surprised if this were not the case - what's the usage of Welsh track compared to that around London?

I'd be surprised, shocked, annoyed (etc) if spending on Bangor - Holyhead track was the same per mile as, say, Sandbach - Cheadle Hulme!

 

[Rhydgaled]

I never, ever thought I'd be relying on Grayling & the DfT to dig in his heels deep enough to save Cardiff and the Valleys from one of the most ill conceived and ill thought out Welsh Govt transport projects ever. (I'm talking about the 'Core Valley lines' debacle, not the idea of a Metro itself)
If he does, we lost Arriva and specifically Abeillo from the contest for no good reason.

Since the ITT has not been published and I don't work for the Welsh Government, any of the bidders or Transport For Wales, I remain totally ignorant of what the bidders have been asked to do. I therefore consider it perhaps a little unfair to criticise the Welsh Government's plans*; because we don't actually know what those plans are. IF they genuinely are planning to remove toilets from ValleyLines services and/or terminate everything that runs through Queen Street at Cardiff Central then 'debacle' is probably the right word. However, the current state of Network Rail enhancement projects could probably also be described as a debacle; when was the last major project completed on time and on budget? I would therefore understand a desire to take over and see if Network Rail's problems can be avoided. The first key thing is for the cross-Cardiff heavy-rail links between Barry/Bridgend/Penarth and Treherbert/Aberdare/Merthyr/Rhymney to be maintained, with the through-running helping with platform capacity at Cardiff Central. The second key thing is 25kv OHLE, on at least one complete route (eg. Rhymney-Penarth) to allow some true EMUs. Some IPEMUs or bi-modes are unavoidable though if the valleys aren't to be stuck with old DMUs for many years; even cutting out Network Rail will not magically make electrification possible in no-time.

* criticisim regarding the lack of transparency is however totally justified.

 

[gareth950]

Since the ITT has not been published and I don't work for the Welsh Government, any of the bidders or Transport For Wales, I remain totally ignorant of what the bidders have been asked to do. I therefore consider it perhaps a little unfair to criticise the Welsh Government's plans*; because we don't actually know what those plans are. IF they genuinely are planning to remove toilets from ValleyLines services and/or terminate everything that runs through Queen Street at Cardiff Central then 'debacle' is probably the right word. However, the current state of Network Rail enhancement projects could probably also be described as a debacle; when was the last major project completed on time and on budget? I would therefore understand a desire to take over and see if Network Rail's problems can be avoided. The first key thing is for the cross-Cardiff heavy-rail links between Barry/Bridgend/Penarth and Treherbert/Aberdare/Merthyr/Rhymney to be maintained, with the through-running helping with platform capacity at Cardiff Central. The second key thing is 25kv OHLE, on at least one complete route (eg. Rhymney-Penarth) to allow some true EMUs. Some IPEMUs or bi-modes are unavoidable though if the valleys aren't to be stuck with old DMUs for many years; even cutting out Network Rail will not magically make electrification possible in no-time.

* criticisim regarding the lack of transparency is however totally justified.

We are in grave danger of going off topic here, as these discussions really do belong in the South Wales Metro thread, which you obviously haven't been following.
None of what you mentioned is planned to become a reality. Every single article / news story about the Metro has indicated in the strongest possible terms that the entirety of the 'Core Valley lines' is planned to become light rail, with on-street termination in the city centre or Cardiff Bay. Everything else - Barry, VoG, Penarth, Central - Radyr via Ninian Park, Maesteg & Ebbw Vale will remain HR DMU oprated for the foreseeable future. Cross-city links are gone, everything will terminate in central Cardiff.
If TfW get their way, heavy rail operation on the Valleys will cease by 2023 indefinitely.

 

[berneyarms]

Well you need 2 signal boxes open (Deganwy and Llandudno), as well as train crew and the station staff.

Could that not be a new franchise requirement though? In other words NR gets paid extra to open the boxes all year round?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Could that not be a new franchise requirement though? In other words NR gets paid extra to open the boxes all year round?

Yes, we will soon find out.
Incidentally there is a second article about North Wales signalling (and a lot of history) in this week's Rail.

 

[berneyarms]

Yes, we will soon find out.
Incidentally there is a second article about North Wales signalling (and a lot of history) in this week's Rail.

Paying the extra to open the boxes is what I would expect to happen.

The option is there which is a lot different to saying it’s a long way off.

 

[craigybagel]

Not sure you would extra station staff, The beautifully refurbished Llandudno station is completely closed off after 3pm Monday to Saturday, so wouldn’t need staffing on a Sunday
Deganwy station is unstaffed obviously, and Llandudno Junction is staffed for mainline trains in any case.
Deganwy signal box has to open to operate the level crossing, but does Llandudno box need to open for a basic hourly service?

I can't see how you could avoid staffing Llandudno box - someone's got to pull the points and the signals so that trains arriving from the junction on the down line can return on the up.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Paying the extra to open the boxes is what I would expect to happen.
The option is there which is a lot different to saying it’s a long way off.

It's the resignalling that is a long way off (which would have eliminated the cost of opening the boxes).
The option to pay to keep them open has been there for decades, but hasn't happened yet.
The difference on the main line is that those costs between Chester and LLJ are now eliminated, but remain on the branches and towards Holyhead.

 

[berneyarms]

It's the resignalling that is a long way off (which would have eliminated the cost of opening the boxes).
The option to pay to keep them open has been there for decades, but hasn't happened yet.
The difference on the main line is that those costs between Chester and LLJ are now eliminated, but remain on the branches and towards Holyhead.

That’s fair enough but that’s not what you said originally!

 

[4-SUB 4732]

It is an immense shame that Llandudno Junction hasn't been sorted out along with Deganwy and up to Llandudno. Not only would some re-modelling help and some higher line speeds at the Junction but equally Llandudno getting an all-day, all-week service. It's amazing the main town is left out on a limb so much.

I'd suggest the frequencies that would make sense would be something like:

1tp2h Holyhead to Cardiff Central (Llanfairpwll, Bangor, Conwy, Llandudno Junction, Abergele & Pensarn, Rhyl, Prestatyn, Flint, Shotton, Chester etc)
1tp2h Holyhead to London Euston (Bangor, Conwy, Llandudno Junction, Colwyn Bay, Rhyl, Prestatyn, Shotton, Chester etc)
1tp2h Holyhead to Llandudno Junction (Valley, Rhosneigr, Ty Croes, Bodorgan, Llanfairpwll, Bangor, Llanfairfechan, Penmaenmawr, Conwy, Llandudno Junction)
1tp2h Llandudno to London Euston (Llandudno Junction, Rhyl, Prestatyn, Flint, Shotton, Chester etc)
1tph Llandudno to Manchester Airport (Llandudno Junction, Abergele & Pensarn, Rhyl, Prestatyn, Flint, Shotton, Chester etc)
1tp2h Llandudno to Blaenau Ffestiniog (Deganwy, Llandudno Junction and all stations)
1tp2h Flint starter to 'somewhere' beyond Chester

No reason, with the new West Coast franchise, not to procure some form of new electric stock to enable the 5 car Voyagers to run through to Llandudno and Holyhead.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I never, ever thought I'd be relying on Grayling & the DfT to dig in his heels deep enough to save Cardiff and the Valleys from one of the most ill conceived and ill thought out Welsh Govt transport projects ever. (I'm talking about the 'Core Valley lines' debacle, not the idea of a Metro itself)
If he does, we lost Arriva and specifically Abeillo from the contest for no good reason.

The RAB is in the region of £35 billion, on a pro rata by route mile basis core valley lines is at least quarter of a billion.

 

[krus_aragon]

It is an immense shame that Llandudno Junction hasn't been sorted out along with Deganwy and up to Llandudno. Not only would some re-modelling help and some higher line speeds at the Junction but equally Llandudno getting an all-day, all-week service. It's amazing the main town is left out on a limb so much.

Llandudno Junction is arguably fine for the time being without remodelling: It was converted to colour light signalling in the mid-80s as part of the A55 redoubling deal, and it controls the coast line between Penmaenmawr and Abergele. The current layout doesn't strike me as particularly limiting (two of its three platforms are bidirectional) and every passenger service stops there, so linespeed benefits would be limited. If its control had been extended north to Llandudno town as well then we wouldn't have the staffing problem that currently exists on the Llandudno branch.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Is the cost of manning the Llandudno branch on winter Sunday's even a footnote in NR's annual accounts?

 

[4-SUB 4732]

It ought to be.

 

[IanXC]

Is the cost of manning the Llandudno branch on winter Sunday's even a footnote in NR's annual accounts?

I suspect its rather the practicalities that cause more issues than the cost.