West Coast Franchise speculation

[gsnedders]

The other question is how much of the line could be easily upgraded to 125mph non-EPS; certainly I'd expect some of it could be?

 

[Domh245]

Surely going for a blanket 110mph maximum will make pathing and timetabling easier though?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Surely going for a blanket 110mph maximum will make pathing and timetabling easier though?

That was my thought. I could also see sense in two rather than three non-HS2 fleets - one with 4x20m and doors at thirds and 3+2 for south WCML stoppers and semifasts, and one with 5x24m (or articulated short-vehicle equivalent), end doors and gangways for the rest of the service which, as I mentioned, will probably rather resemble an electrified Chiltern line rather than the present InterCity service the WCML provides, as that will all have moved onto HS2.

If the current fad for scrapping newish but slightly unsuitable EMUs for more suitable brand new ones continues, doing this and binning the entire legacy fleet doesn't seem out of the question.

 

[pt_mad]

There is a very big difference between maintaining a line at 125mph, and upgrading the specification for it to get to 125mph in the first place.

Indeed the difference in maintenance regime for 125mph vs 110mph is marginal.

Although they didn't used to (1990s, not sure about today) maintain the GWR fast lines out of Paddington to 125 spec until at least 8 miles along the route. As it was deemed HSTs on the (down?) couldn't get up to the speed even they wanted to within that distance. It was said to be cheaper to maintain it to max 90 or 100 or whatever it was within those miles.

So presumably the cost benefits were deemed worth having a lower max speed there?

 

[The Planner]

Track category changes at 106mph from 2 to 1 which will change the maintenance regime.

 

[pt_mad]

Track category changes at 106mph from 2 to 1 which will change the maintenance regime.

Oh ok that makes sense with my example then. Thanks.

But does anyone think they will procure another fleet of tilting trains once the current Pendolinos reach end of life?

The time benefits between tilt and non tilt between Euston and Weaver may not be worth it if most classic line services become more inter regional skip stop x to London services via (4 T.V. stops) anyway.

 

[The Planner]

Surely going for a blanket 110mph maximum will make pathing and timetabling easier though?

Depends how many you are still planning to chuck along the fasts once HS2 opens, and no one knows that yet.

 

[pt_mad]

I know some posters say there will be no new WCML stock for the WCP and we all need to accept it.

But I think there's a good chance at least one bidder will bid some new stock in some way or another even if it's some token 225s or something new for the Holyhead and Chester or even potential loco hauling to Wales as some have suggested.

And hopefully DFT will judge the bids on the merits as they did with LNR who bid 350/2 replacement when it was an optional requirement and they didn't need to.


Some have said current Pendolinos can't be chopped and changed and a unit can't be broken down and cars used to lengthen another. I bet people thought that when EMT chopped and changed the meridian 222 lengths and made a load of 7 car units. They presumably have similar complex onboard systems. It would take a lot of work. But it may be an easy win and the only way to lengthen the remaining 9 car sets (by breaking down 3 or 4 sets and using the cars) and replacing the several 9 car sets lost with whatever may be bid for Voyager replacement if anything is.

 

[Domh245]

The difference being that 22x intermediate cars are essentially identical outside of the cabin which makes rejigging them significantly easier than pendolinos

 

[Bald Rick]

The difference being that 22x intermediate cars are essentially identical outside of the cabin which makes rejigging them significantly easier than pendolinos

Exactly. Pendolinos have awkward things like transformers, pantographs, and traction motors distributed around some coaches and not others. You need all 3 for the things to move.

 

[Bald Rick]

Although they didn't used to (1990s, not sure about today) maintain the GWR fast lines out of Paddington to 125 spec until at least 8 miles along the route. As it was deemed HSTs on the (down?) couldn't get up to the speed even they wanted to within that distance. It was said to be cheaper to maintain it to max 90 or 100 or whatever it was within those miles.

So presumably the cost benefits were deemed worth having a lower max speed there?

If the linespeed is 125, the line is maintained at 125, regardless of whether it is achievable or not.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Exactly. Pendolinos have awkward things like transformers, pantographs, and traction motors distributed around some coaches and not others. You need all 3 for the things to move.

If I recall correctly an 11 car set has an extra pantograph car without a pantograph, as an extra transformer is needed.

 

[The Ham]

If I recall correctly an 11 car set has an extra pantograph car without a pantograph, as an extra transformer is needed.

IIRC part of the reason that project Thor was going to be so costly we that there was a need for two pantographs for trains longer than 5 coaches.

If this follows that a transformer is needed for every 5 coaches, then this would appear to follow the same logic.

Of course it may just be a coincidence and follow no such logic.

 

[pt_mad]

If the linespeed is 125, the line is maintained at 125, regardless of whether it is achievable or not.

That's what I'm saying. The linespeed until about 7 or 8 miles out of Paddington was limited to a lower speed than 125. say max 105mph(approx may be slightly out). But HSTs could still accelerate on the most powerful notch out of Paddington. As there was no way the train could get above 105 within that number of miles. So there was no need for a linespeed of maximum 125 within that section. Even if the train was 125 capable and was accelerating at full notch. And thus is was cheaper to maintain the track within that mileage as the standards are less for less than max 106mph as stated by the planner.

This may have changed since but this was the case with the GWR out of Paddington in the 1990s.

 

[krus_aragon]

There are many that have though. The M25 took 13 years, the A55 the best part of 20 and it feels like the new Forth road bridge has been a long time in the making.

To my knowledge, the A55 (in its dual carriageway form) wasn't planned and designed as a single route, but rather as a succession of bypasses.

 

[pt_mad]

If I recall correctly an 11 car set has an extra pantograph car without a pantograph, as an extra transformer is needed.

Good point I think you're almost certainly right.

But using existing other cars imo will be the only way the remaining 9 car trains will ever get extended.

The fact that the 390 is now outdated and vehicles don't pass current standards for new builds I can only assume would prevent Alstom from manufacturing any new vehicles to the same specification in order to fit.

Does anyone know for sure the stance on this? Whether the standards can be waivered to add new one off coaches to an already existing train? I fear not. And I seem to remember reading an article which said there was a waiver for the last Pendo vehicle build but this was a one off and would not be allowed again after that one off. Someone else may be able provide further detail and verification into that.

And if this is the case, the only other way of extending all the trains to 11 cars would be to break up other 9 car units. No other option if new build coaches can't be added. Otherwise the trains are destined to remain 9 car until their life is over and potentially 2031. And I suspect the 9 car units won't be sufficient if HS2 ends up late and the current service runs only as it is until approaching 2030.

 

[SeanM1997]

Anyone know how Crewe will be affected by the new franchise? Will they still maintain their services to Manchester-London, Chester-London, Liverpool-London and Scotland-Birmingham-London?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Anyone know how Crewe will be affected by the new franchise? Will they still maintain their services to Manchester-London, Chester-London, Liverpool-London and Scotland-Birmingham-London?

No change seems to be the order of the day, until HS2 arrives.

 

[Chester1]

Good point I think you're almost certainly right.

But using existing other cars imo will be the only way the remaining 9 car trains will ever get extended.

The fact that the 390 is now outdated and vehicles don't pass current standards for new builds I can only assume would prevent Alstom from manufacturing any new vehicles to the same specification in order to fit.

Does anyone know for sure the stance on this? Whether the standards can be waivered to add new one off coaches to an already existing train? I fear not. And I seem to remember reading an article which said there was a waiver for the last Pendo vehicle build but this was a one off and would not be allowed again after that one off. Someone else may be able provide further detail and verification into that.

And if this is the case, the only other way of extending all the trains to 11 cars would be to break up other 9 car units. No other option if new build coaches can't be added. Otherwise the trains are destined to remain 9 car until their life is over and potentially 2031. And I suspect the 9 car units won't be sufficient if HS2 ends up late and the current service runs only as it is until approaching 2030.

There is no reason at this stage to base rolling stock plans around HS2 being late. UK rail upgrades are ussually late but not all new lines are e.g. Crossrail and HS1. 11 coach units will be harder to cascade. For instance by removing 1 coach from 9 coach units they would fit into Manchester Airport and would be 15 minutes faster to Scotland and have more capacity than 397s which could run North TP services once the route is eventually wired.

 

[DenmarkRail]

There is no reason at this stage to base rolling stock plans around HS2 being late. UK rail upgrades are ussually late but not all new lines are e.g. Crossrail and HS1. 11 coach units will be harder to cascade. For instance by removing 1 coach from 9 coach units they would fit into Manchester Airport and would be 15 minutes faster to Scotland and have more capacity than 397s which could run North TP services once the route is eventually wired.

I don't see any reason why ALL 390s couldn't continue to operate on the West Coast after HS2.

 

[pt_mad]

There is no reason at this stage to base rolling stock plans around HS2 being late. UK rail upgrades are ussually late but not all new lines are e.g. Crossrail and HS1. 11 coach units will be harder to cascade. For instance by removing 1 coach from 9 coach units they would fit into Manchester Airport and would be 15 minutes faster to Scotland and have more capacity than 397s which could run North TP services once the route is eventually wired.

Ok in that case will 9 car units even be sufficient until 2026 if HS2 is on time?


Some further thoughts re any bids which could potentially contain plans for additional stock.
What about rather than running Voyagers under the wires to Crewe, acquiring a new fleet of 5 or 6 car EMUs and coupling one onto a Voyager to run from Euston as far as Crewe? Run with only the EMU power and essentially drag the Voyager under the wires. The units uncouple at Crewe and the Voyager runs diesel to Chester or beyond, and the EMU continues on somewhere else? Obviously the voyager cab controls would need to be able to operate the EMU from the front if the Voyager was on the front. Like a DVT.

Or possibly a new diesel loco which is built to automatically couple to a Pendolino and can drag it to North Wales from Crewe?

Or, and this is real pie in the sky, an electric loco which can drag a voyager to Crewe at 125mph, and then uncouple at Crewe allowing the voyager continue towards Chester on its own power? I'm not sure the loco itself would need to tilt as tilt is just for ride comfort for passengers who can't see ahead I understand?

 

[DenmarkRail]

Ok in that case will 9 car units even be sufficient until 2026 if HS2 is on time?


Some further thoughts re any bids which could potentially contain plans for additional stock.
What about rather than running Voyagers under the wires to Crewe, acquiring a new fleet of 5 or 6 car EMUs and coupling one onto a Voyager to run from Euston as far as Crewe? Run with only the EMU power and essentially drag the Voyager under the wires. The units uncouple at Crewe and the Voyager runs diesel to Chester or beyond, and the EMU continues on somewhere else? Obviously the voyager cab controls would need to be able to operate the EMU from the front if the Voyager was on the front. Like a DVT.

Or possibly a new diesel loco which is built to automatically couple to a Pendolino and can drag it to North Wales from Crewe?

Or, and this is real pie in the sky, an electric loco which can drag a voyager to Crewe at 125mph, and then uncouple at Crewe allowing the voyager continue towards Chester on its own power? I'm not sure the loco itself would need to tilt as tilt is just for ride comfort for passengers who can't see ahead I understand?

But why? Why spend extra cash on something that isn't needed... Sure, I get that the voyagers are operating under wires, and that is an issue, but there is no point spending millions on a fleet procurement, to replace trains that have worked perfectly fine under wires for 15 years... Refurbishment... Yes. Replacement... No.

 

[BigVern]

No change seems to be the order of the day, until HS2 arrives.

And then the capacity problems start - Crewe will be a bottleneck until phase 2b.
Crewe will see 2 further London to Manchester trains. They won't stop, but they will take paths.
The changes to accommodate the extra through traffic are included in the phase 2a bill, but I think they will be needed for phase 1.
Also adding a passing loop is fine if you're on the passing service, but grim if you're sat on a local service waiting to be passed.
It will be interesting to see the WCP's plans for Crewe, and how the battle for paths between the WCP and other franchises will be mediated.

As it says on page 22 of the West Coast Partnership Stakeholder Briefing Document:
"The post-2026 specification will be developed from the Shadow Operator design work.
There will be opportunities during the life of the Partnership for passengers, businesses, local authorities and communities to have a say in shaping the future HS2 services.
Throughout all this work the Government retains the right to take the final decisions."

 

[The Planner]

Where are the extra 2 Manchesters coming from? They won't be additionals as you wont get them to Manchester.

 

[Mathew S]

By not selling any open tickets that are eligible for travel on West Coast franchise services i.e. by only selling LNWR only season tickets and anytime returns. If the aim of the franchise was to fill as many seats as possible while avoiding overcrowding then seat and service specific tickets only would be the best option. Its not an uncommon approach to long distance services globally. Having fully loaded trains and reasonably priced tickets at peak times could politically outweigh maximum revanue. It would be much easier to introduce for HS2 than WCML services though.

So what about Wigan-Warrington? A route where the only option is the hourly Virgin xx28 via Birmingham. Are you really proposing that customers should have to make a reservation for a 10 minute journey? Or even Wigan-Crewe, which is a 30 minute journey which, again, can only be made with Virgin?
Compulsory reservations on most services is a non-starter, plain and simple. Bring it in on some of the peak services to and from Euston by all means, where there's genuine overcrowding such as Friday evenings, but other than that it disadvantages way, way too many people to even be vaguely reasonable.

 

[mmh]

So what about Wigan-Warrington? A route where the only option is the hourly Virgin xx28 via Birmingham. Are you really proposing that customers should have to make a reservation for a 10 minute journey? Or even Wigan-Crewe, which is a 30 minute journey which, again, can only be made with Virgin?
Compulsory reservations on most services is a non-starter, plain and simple. Bring it in on some of the peak services to and from Euston by all means, where there's genuine overcrowding such as Friday evenings, but other than that it disadvantages way, way too many people to even be vaguely reasonable.

Exactly. There seems to be a suprising number of people on here who think our "inter-city" trains are only for taking people to and from London and don't realise that every single inter-city service also provides "local" service for passengers who couldn't care less if their train has come from or is going to London. Compulsory reservations just won't happen. BR experimented with "boarding passes", I'm old enough to remember one year being threatened we'd need them to leave Euston on Christmas Eve. It didn't work, and it won't happen again.

 

[Gerald Fiennes]

Compulsory reservations, even if only on peak trains, will only work if it's made much easier to get a seat reservation. Today, it involves queueing at a ticket office (and, sometimes, where this is at a non VT station persuading the retail staff that they can reserve seats on a 'foreign' train) or buying an ADV ticket. No other options. Repeat, no other options. So would need an app or additional machines at stations (reservations only) to make this work practically: ES have only ever sold what amount to ADV tickets with a variety of change conditions since the service began in 1994 so everyone has got used to it there, but would be much harder on WC.

 

[Senex]

Compulsory reservations, even if only on peak trains, will only work if it's made much easier to get a seat reservation. Today, it involves queueing at a ticket office (and, sometimes, where this is at a non VT station persuading the retail staff that they can reserve seats on a 'foreign' train) or buying an ADV ticket. No other options. Repeat, no other options. So would need an app or additional machines at stations (reservations only) to make this work practically: ES have only ever sold what amount to ADV tickets with a variety of change conditions since the service began in 1994 so everyone has got used to it there, but would be much harder on WC.

You've forgotten the bit about getting to the ticket-office in order to queue first, before you even do the queuing (and then getting back again afterwards).

 

[driver_m]

So what about Wigan-Warrington? A route where the only option is the hourly Virgin xx28 via Birmingham. Are you really proposing that customers should have to make a reservation for a 10 minute journey? Or even Wigan-Crewe, which is a 30 minute journey which, again, can only be made with Virgin?
Compulsory reservations on most services is a non-starter, plain and simple. Bring it in on some of the peak services to and from Euston by all means, where there's genuine overcrowding such as Friday evenings, but other than that it disadvantages way, way too many people to even be vaguely reasonable.

Then you have the hordes that use the train between Brum and Coventry. People are guilty of assuming that the West Coast is purely a London service. Sure, it's ultimately the selling point, but it serves many other short routes. Prestatyn/Rhyl - Llandudno, Runcorn-Liverpool, Macc-Manchester.

 

[BigVern]

Where are the extra 2 Manchesters coming from? They won't be additionals as you wont get them to Manchester.

They are NOT additionals.
You have advised us that classic compatibles cannot venture north of Macclesfield to Cheadle Hulme.
Hence the 3 trains per hour Manchester to London will route via Crewe - unless I'm missing something.