West Coast Franchise speculation

[Bletchleyite]

Thirdly, I very much doubt or even desire that fares be fully integrated as time has value so a fare via HS2 is likely to be higher than one via the WCML (south of Crewe).

Fares certainly need to be *integrated* in my book. That would mean an interavailable fare set for travel on HS2, and a cheaper "not HS2" fare if felt appropriate.

Finally, I am also not against compulsory reservations on one of the operators provided they can be made up to say 4 hours before departure or passage of the train. I am concerned by unregulated standing which I think should stop/be regulated with specific pricing.

Concerned by it in what way?

4 hours, though, is to me totally unacceptable. If compulsory reservations are to be used, in my view it needs to be possible to make one right up to departure from your start station (certainly no less than 5 minutes before departure as a cut-off if you want to use the fares system as a means of stopping people legging it across stations last minute) and there needs to be a seat selector. This needs to be possible from all sales channels - ticket office, TVM and online/mobile.

Removing genuine walk-up travel is to me completely unacceptable in any form, even if you do stop selling tickets when the train has all seats taken.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The WCP bid will be won before there is any clarity about HS2 rolling stock, which will be a separate procurement by HS2/DfT.
If Hitachi was seemingly a shoe-in previously, they have something to worry about now with how the IEP and class 385 programmes are turning out.
So while it's easy to relate to an SNCF/Alstom AGV combination for HS2, it might not turn out that way.
Another "national" combination would be Trenitalia and the Bombardier/Hitachi Zefiro family (now built by Hitachi in the ex-Ansaldo plant in Italy).
It's more likely we will end up with a mismatch in terms of national high speed experience and preferences.
By the time the bid is awarded we will probably have a merged Siemens/Alstom manufacturer, and they are hardly going to offer both current designs.

If the idea is to tap the bidders' retail experience with high speed, you have a very mixed bag.
Neither the SNCF or Trenitalia web sites are anything to shout about, and yet I see Trenitalia is bringing their booking engine to c2c.
I've tried to fathom the Guangshen web site, but the important bits are in Chinese. I can't believe they have anything to offer.
And we'd better gloss over the way SNCF tests the integration of new lines and high-speed stock after the Alsace derailment.

 

[pt_mad]

Quite possibly, but even assuming these arrived in 2021, that would still be only 5 years of use before HS2 opens on that precise stretch. So (I would guess) it would be unlikely to be sanctioned by the ORR/a ROSCO unless there was a clear use for them afterwards.

Yes, but in theory intercity 225 sets will be becoming available from the ECML. Is there any reason these couldn't be part of a bid? They're 125mph capable EMUs and tilt isn't mentioned in the spec. And they could presumably be up and running fairly quickly and it makes economic sense putting that stock to good use here.

As said above such stock could be used on Birmingham terminators freeing up Pendolinos for some of the other electric work which currently runs voyager under the wires for the whole route.

Alternatively or as well as:

Someone said it's not worth a small order for tilting trains. But as I suggested, if they use four of the current 9 car Pendolinos to lengthen every other current 9 car set to 11, they could then replace the whole voyager fleet + the four 9 car sets lost + say up to 5 new sets with a brand new bi mode tilting fleet. And I think this would be worth it. For efficiency and environmental and ethical reasons if nothing else.

 

[DenmarkRail]

I am all for compulsery reservations on the fast services. To be fair, I wouldn't mind if they banned standing on WCP services, and moved the none reservations to WMT/LNWR. I'd still like to see a priority boarding system at the terminus stations... It is HELL in Euston when a train is announced, and if you were allowed on 15 mins before departure for an extra fee (or even for first class) I'd be fine, although I usually use RMT... I once ended up on a train to Glasgow

Yes, but in theory intercity 225 sets will be becoming available from the ECML. Is there any reason these couldn't be part of a bid? They're 125mph capable EMUs and tilt isn't mentioned in the spec.

I once suggested this, and the gods above didn't appreciate it

 

[mmh]

I am all for compulsery reservations on the fast services. To be fair, I wouldn't mind if they banned standing on WCP services, and moved the none reservations to WMT/LNWR. I'd still like to see a priority boarding system at the terminus stations... It is HELL in Euston when a train is announced, and if you were allowed on 15 mins before departure for an extra fee (or even for first class) I'd be fine, although I usually use RMT... I once ended up on a train to Glasgow



I once suggested this, and the gods above didn't appreciate it

Why is it OK to stand for 3 hours on a train from London to, say, Crewe, but not one from London to Carlisle? WCP couldn't be compulsory reservations / no-standing anyway, the franchise isn't just London to the other terminal cities, it provides local service between many places in multiple areas.

 

[pt_mad]

I am all for compulsery reservations on the fast services. To be fair, I wouldn't mind if they banned standing on WCP services, and moved the none reservations to WMT/LNWR. I'd still like to see a priority boarding system at the terminus stations... It is HELL in Euston when a train is announced, and if you were allowed on 15 mins before departure for an extra fee (or even for first class) I'd be fine, although I usually use RMT... I once ended up on a train to Glasgow



I once suggested this, and the gods above didn't appreciate it

Just thought. Would it be possible to do Euston to Birmingham in 90 mins at 110mph with the current stops?

If not that's out. As the spec requires 30 odd trains a day in each direction between the two which do it in max 90 mins.

I suspect that may throw out 225 sets unless it is used on just one of the three Euston to Birminghams in the hour.

As long as you can get your (34 or 36 can't remember) trains a day Euston to Brum in under 90 mins then the rest could take longer and use 225 sets.

 

[pt_mad]

What I fear is a push towards non-clockface operation, non-integration of fares and compulsory reservations, as feature in all the Romance and Slavic railway operations (and Chinese I think) but not the Germanic ones which promote consistent timetabling, quality connections and walk-up fares.

A non clock face won't happen. The spec is so particular that it's got to be at a minimum what we have now + whatever other options bidders can bolt on.

You HAVE to have your 1 hourly off peak Liverpool, Chester, 3 Manc, 1 fast Glasgow, and the Birmingham services and Birmingham to Scotland. As well as the minimum number of Holyheads Shrewsbury's 3 Blackpool in each direction and minimum number of calls in the Trent between very strict times which basically forces the bidder to stop the exact same trains they do now in the peak.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I am all for compulsery reservations on the fast services. To be fair, I wouldn't mind if they banned standing on WCP services, and moved the none reservations to WMT/LNWR. I'd still like to see a priority boarding system at the terminus stations... It is HELL in Euston when a train is announced

That is because they don't call the platforms until the last minute, a practice that doesn't even occur at most of the same TOC's other termini. Stop doing that and it will be fine.

Get the train in, unload, lock the doors with the cleaners on board, then call the train. That would be far enough in advance in most cases that the scrum would reduce to dribs and drabs and people would queue by the doors in a reasonably orderly fashion.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The ITT actually mentions improving the boarding process at Euston, as a hint of where bidders might get bonus points.
But nothing mandatory.

 

[pt_mad]

Longer trains would help. At a minimum the whole electric fleet should be 11 Cars. Are 9 car sets really going to handle capacity until potentially 2031 (if HS2 is late)?

Also apparently Alstom have hinted they could be in a position to open a production line at their new facility in Widnes should there be a need for it.

 

[ForTheLoveOf]

if they use four of the current 9 car Pendolinos to lengthen every other current 9 car set to 11

As others have said, Pendolinos can't simply be chopped and changed. You can add additional carriages, but you can't remove carriages without making suitable modifications to these. It's probably quicker and easier to do another order for to make up the remaining 20-odd 9-coachers to full 11-coachers. Perhaps a few extra to replace the under-the-wires Voyager operations so that the only Voyager operations are for North Wales and Shrewsbury. Then the Voyagers freed up could go to CrossCountry, who are really desperate for more, longer trains.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Then the Voyagers freed up could go to CrossCountry, who are really desperate for more, longer trains.

Or keep them and either (a) end 5-car running south of Chester, or (b) increase the full North Wales service to hourly (or both). The latter would be of significant benefit.

 

[driver_m]

Non-tilt 125mph EMUs would probably be fine used on the Euston-Birmingham services not extending to Scotland, to be honest. They wouldn't lose *that* much time.

No they wouldn't be fine at all. Consider this. A Manchester train at xx00 catches the Crewe LNWR service up at Rugby assuming everything runs on time .What do you think it would do if a 110mph xx03 Birmingham ran in front of the xx07 Liverpool and the xx10 Chester as a consequence? And likewise with the xx30 off Birmingham which would hold up the Liverpool and a Manchester via Crewe that tail it?

It would balls the service up.

 

[driver_m]

As others have said, Pendolinos can't simply be chopped and changed. You can add additional carriages, but you can't remove carriages without making suitable modifications to these. It's probably quicker and easier to do another order for to make up the remaining 20-odd 9-coachers to full 11-coachers. Perhaps a few extra to replace the under-the-wires Voyager operations so that the only Voyager operations are for North Wales and Shrewsbury. Then the Voyagers freed up could go to CrossCountry, who are really desperate for more, longer trains.

You can't do it as you would seriously imbalance the fleet for one thing, as the two extra coaches are a power car and an unpowered car with all the gubbins required. You'd have a fleet of rockets constantly catching up a fleet of overloaded fiat Puntos .

 

[absolutelymilk]

Yes, but in theory intercity 225 sets will be becoming available from the ECML. Is there any reason these couldn't be part of a bid? They're 125mph capable EMUs and tilt isn't mentioned in the spec. And they could presumably be up and running fairly quickly and it makes economic sense putting that stock to good use here.

As said above such stock could be used on Birmingham terminators freeing up Pendolinos for some of the other electric work which currently runs voyager under the wires for the whole route.

Yes that could work, certainly could take the pressure off the Pendolinos.

 

[Chester1]

The West Coast franchise does not need more services. TPE will accommodate growth north of Preston and LNWR + Chiltern can handle more London to Birmingham traffic. I would scrap anytime tickets for the West Coast opperator and only have "advance" tickets that are sold upto 10 minutes before departure. That would allowing pricing that would fill but not overload peak time services. This would hit revanue so no ToC would propose it though.

 

[SeanM1997]

I can't see the specification for specific stations. Crewe just says 0 throughout most of the day. Will Crewe still be served by hourly Chester-London, Liverpool-London, Manchester-London and Scotland-Birmingham-London?

 

[ForTheLoveOf]

The West Coast franchise does not need more services. TPE will accommodate growth north of Preston and LNWR + Chiltern can handle more London to Birmingham traffic. I would scrap anytime tickets for the West Coast opperator and only have "advance" tickets that are sold upto 10 minutes before departure. That would allowing pricing that would fill but not overload peak time services. This would hit revanue so no ToC would propose it though.

The DfT also wouldn't (if they are sensible*) accept any bid that proposed it, because of the resultant reduction in franchise premium paid - and hence larger overall rail defecit.

*Who knows just how sensible the DfT are, given their history of making mistakes with the franchising e.g. of the ICEC and ICWC.

 

[ForTheLoveOf]

LNWR + Chiltern can handle more London to Birmingham traffic

Can't comment on Chiltern, but LNR/WMT/ex-LM really can't handle much more London to Birmingham traffic, and it's not very attractive to business people - which are the people who really pay the true cost of rail - due to the time and low 'quality'.

HS2, when it finally starts, will definitely help, with no less than 4 options, each at a different price and speed, between London and Birmingham. Not to mention the huge increase in capacity. But alas that is at the very least 8 years away (likely more), and I don't think LNR/WMT/ex-LM can handle 8 years of further traffic growth as things stand.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Will there *be* much further traffic growth? Brexit will undoubtedly damage the economy, and business travel for me is reducing, certainly, as remote meetings and remote working become increasingly viable and that viability spreads to more industries.

 

[ForTheLoveOf]

Will there *be* much further traffic growth? Brexit will undoubtedly damage the economy, and business travel for me is reducing, certainly, as remote meetings and remote working become increasingly viable and that viability spreads to more industries.

I agree that business growth - the kind that really pays the railway's cost - is likely to be low or negative. But I can't help but notice the continuing growth in commuting. Whilst that doesn't pay the bills anywhere near as much, it certainly does mean that peak time capacity is very stretched.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I agree that business growth - the kind that really pays the railway's cost - is likely to be low or negative. But I can't help but notice the continuing growth in commuting. Whilst that doesn't pay the bills anywhere near as much, it certainly does mean that peak time capacity is very stretched.

That is caused by the housing market issues - the BBC were reporting earlier in the week that people have basically "stopped moving house".

 

[ag51ruk]

The West Coast franchise does not need more services. TPE will accommodate growth north of Preston and LNWR + Chiltern can handle more London to Birmingham traffic. I would scrap anytime tickets for the West Coast opperator and only have "advance" tickets that are sold upto 10 minutes before departure. That would allowing pricing that would fill but not overload peak time services. This would hit revanue so no ToC would propose it though.

And how would you accommodate commuters in the West Midlands and North West making short journeys using season tickets?

 

[aylesbury]

I am glad that Virgin have retained the WCML for another two years as they provide excellent service with brilliant staff perhaps the penderlinos need a refurb as I noticed on my last journey the seat cover were looking tatty and dirty.What will happen after HS2 starts is going to be interesting as there are many passengers who use the existing services who wont be able to use the high speed

 

[Chester1]

And how would you accommodate commuters in the West Midlands and North West making short journeys using season tickets?

By not selling any open tickets that are eligible for travel on West Coast franchise services i.e. by only selling LNWR only season tickets and anytime returns. If the aim of the franchise was to fill as many seats as possible while avoiding overcrowding then seat and service specific tickets only would be the best option. Its not an uncommon approach to long distance services globally. Having fully loaded trains and reasonably priced tickets at peak times could politically outweigh maximum revanue. It would be much easier to introduce for HS2 than WCML services though.

 

[All Line Rover]

Try to avoid the flaming arrows the next time you visit Stoke-on-Trent.

And you are aware that LNWR-only tickets ignore ATW, CrossCountry, Northern, etc, aren't you?

 

[ForTheLoveOf]

That is caused by the housing market issues - the BBC were reporting earlier in the week that people have basically "stopped moving house".

If that is the case, I have not noticed it on my travels.

 

[Chester1]

Try to avoid the flaming arrows the next time you visit Stoke-on-Trent.

And you are aware that LNWR-only tickets ignore ATW, CrossCountry, Northern, etc, aren't you?

For London to Birmingham those opperators are not relevant and even for the rest of the route your missing my point that however its done anytime and season tickets could be not valid for West Coast franchise peak services, only tickets sold for each specific service. Commuters in places like Stoke-on-Trent should have enough other alternatives to intercity services, e.g. CrossCountry trains should be much longer.

 

[Bletchleyite]

For London to Birmingham those opperators are not relevant and even for the rest of the route your missing my point that however its done anytime and season tickets could be not valid for West Coast franchise peak services, only tickets sold for each specific service. Commuters in places like Stoke-on-Trent should have enough other alternatives to intercity services, e.g. CrossCountry trains should be much longer.

Arguably XC has a much stronger case for compulsory reservations than WC, being mostly laid on top of existing services and running short MUs.

 

[Chester1]

Arguably XC has a much stronger case for compulsory reservations than WC, being mostly laid on top of existing services and running short MUs.

XC is generally used for shorter journeys and the rolling stock shortage is a choice of the government and ToC not due to infrastructure limitations. I am not sure why the UK is so attached to open returns for Intercity tickets. Manchester to London is £338 anytime, if it was advance only then the price could be capped at a much cheaper level and then no more tickets sold once all seats have gone.