Northern - How to fix it's possible capacity and Rolling Stock issue

[LOL The Irony]

Looking everyting over, it looks to most that Northern has buggered up big time with the ordering of 2&3 car 195's and due to circumstances beyond their control, may not have sufficent Rolling Stock. How would the problems be fixed?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Two options:

1. Buy more DMUs
2. Electrify and use some second hand EMUs which will be going for scrap price

Or there's always

3. Let it get overcrowded and do nothing again

Which do we think it will be?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Or potentially (won't happen though).

4. Electrify the Snow Hill Lines and use 350/2s, send the 172s to Northern.

 

[sd0733]

Depending how much stock is taken on by the EMT and ATW franchises Northern may have a get out of jail card in the form of ex-GA 156s and 170s and ex-LM 170s. Its probably too late and may not solve all the problems but with the way other franchises have gone its a shame the 331 order cant be turned into 195s and Northern take on the LM 350/2 fleet to totally replace the 319s and the 4 car 331 order and use refurbished 323s to replace the 3 cars.

 

[Elecman]

All well and good but DaFT/ Treasury won't pay for it

 

[Domh245]

Two options:

1. Buy more DMUs
2. Electrify and use some second hand EMUs which will be going for scrap price

Or there's always

3. Let it get overcrowded and do nothing again

Which do we think it will be?

Or potentially (won't happen though).

4. Electrify the Snow Hill Lines and use 350/2s, send the 172s to Northern.

Option 5. Bung some diesel generators under some homeless EMUs fot cheaper than new DMUs

 

[Polarbear]

I think a lot will depend on how near to a general election we are before the pips start squeaking!

The logical answer would be to do some strategic in-fill electrification to use some of the many electric units that are due to come off lease in the next few years. The latest issue of Modern Railways has an article about NR revising it's design for OHLE which may help future projects come in at a lower price.

The most likely outcome is that Northern will be expected to make do & mend. If the public perception of Northern Rail goes down as a result, and the government announces a big ticket project elsewhere in the UK (London being a prime example), I can see some potential for a backlash against the government.

 

[Elecman]

That won't bother one T May and her cronies unless several conservative MPs are in serious danger of becoming unseated. Even then no one in the North will believe thier promises of improvements having been bitten once already by thier underhanded treatment of cancelling Electrification/ Northern powerhouse projects.

 

[LOL The Irony]

Option 5. Bung some diesel generators under some homeless EMUs fot cheaper than new DMUs

Flexify the 458's and 707's?

 

[LOL The Irony]

That won't bother one T May and her cronies unless several conservative MPs are in serious danger of becoming unseated. Even then no one in the North will believe thier promises of improvements having been bitten once already by thier underhanded treatment of cancelling Electrification/ Northern powerhouse projects.

We could campaign to make Andy Burnham Labour leader...

 

[a_c_skinner]

Option 5. Bung some diesel generators under

I am rather hoping for that, the Class 769 turns out really well and get enough of them to make a decent hike in capacity. Alas the electoral gain of crowded new trains is much better than comfortably loaded refurbs. By my own observations there are huge areas of rail in the north where ridership is patently limited by crowding. TPE's new fleet is going to prove too small too I fear.

 

[LOL The Irony]

Also, keeping the 323's and getting all of LM's. Refurb them and operate them as 9 car trains during peak times across the north west. and keep the 321's & 322's.

 

[D365]

Also, keeping the 323's and getting all of LM's. Refurb them and operate them as 9 car trains during peak times across the north west. and keep the 321's & 322's.

I don't think there's enough electricity (or platform) to do all that...

 

[lejog]

Looking everyting over, it looks to most that Northern has buggered up big time with the ordering of 2&3 car 195's and due to circumstances beyond their control, may not have sufficent Rolling Stock. How would the problems be fixed?

Do you have any sensible quantitive evidence for this? Northern's capacity obligations are for 40% more passenger seats in peak hours into Manchester, Leeds, Liverpool, Sheffield and Newcastle by December 2019 (see capacity train service requirements). Do you think this is insufficient?

In order to deliver this there are going to be extensive train lengthening programmes:
- 6*23m Leeds to York, Selby, Skipton and Manchester Victoria via Brighouse and Bradford
- 5*23m Manchester to Southport, Clitheroe, Kirby and Huddersfield
- 4*23/20m. Manchester to Buxton, Chester (via Northwich), Sheffield, Liverpool (CLC) and Glossop
- 3*20m Leeds to Knottingley and Huddersfield to Sheffield.

Apart from the Leeds to Manchester Victoria services, none of these need 195s (the Blackpool/York service is going to be running fast between Leeds and York).

I think the real risk at the moment is Network Rail not completing the platform lengthening programme. The CP5 Enhancements Plan is only showing Grip 3 complete by December 2019.

 

[lejog]

I don't think there's enough electricity (or platform) to do all that...

You beat me to it, a complete fantasy. There are problems getting 100/140m platforms, let alone 180m.

 

[AndrewE]

Do you have any sensible quantitive evidence for this? Northern's capacity obligations are for 40% more passenger seats in peak hours into Manchester, Leeds, Liverpool, Sheffield and Newcastle by December 2019 (see capacity train service requirements). Do you think this is insufficient?

How do you measure suppressed demand?
I would guess that the 40% capacity enhancement could be swallowed up within months of an upgrade if it happened today - and don't forget it's still more than 2 years away, by when traffic congestion will be worse, young people will probably be poorer still (and therefore more likely to be car-less) etc. etc... So as far as I am concerned, yes, I do think it is probably insufficient.

 

[AndrewE]

I don't think there's enough electricity (or platform) to do all that...

Both things that can be fixed, then. In the short term, longer trains could be semi-fast between bigger stations leaving the shorter ones to serve the smaller stops.

 

[a_c_skinner]

40% more passenger seats in peak hours into Manchester... [snip] Do you think this is insufficient?

Yes. Peak times around Manchester could easily fill twice as many seats on some services I've been on and more likelihood of a seat, or even comfortable standing space, would almost certainly mean increased ridership and better revenue protection and ticket sales.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Do you have any sensible quantitive evidence for this? Northern's capacity obligations are for 40% more passenger seats in peak hours into Manchester, Leeds, Liverpool, Sheffield and Newcastle by December 2019 (see capacity train service requirements). Do you think this is insufficient?

In order to deliver this there are going to be extensive train lengthening programmes:
- 6*23m Leeds to York, Selby, Skipton and Manchester Victoria via Brighouse and Bradford
- 5*23m Manchester to Southport, Clitheroe, Kirby and Huddersfield
- 4*23/20m. Manchester to Buxton, Chester (via Northwich), Sheffield, Liverpool (CLC) and Glossop
- 3*20m Leeds to Knottingley and Huddersfield to Sheffield.

Apart from the Leeds to Manchester Victoria services, none of these need 195s (the Blackpool/York service is going to be running fast between Leeds and York).

I think the real risk at the moment is Network Rail not completing the platform lengthening programme. The CP5 Enhancements Plan is only showing Grip 3 complete by December 2019.

5x23m Manchester to Huddersfield sticks out like a sore thumb in that list... firstly, outwith the peak extras Northern won't be operating it, and secondly the TPE services which will run will be formed of 185s:- a single one will be woefully under capacity and a double will be too long for the 5-car platforms. Even with a revision of TPE allocations there's nothing that IS the right length - it's 5x22m plus loco, or 5x26m, or nothing!

 

[Old Hill Bank]

Have all the 170s coming spare in 2020 and pay for them. If Manchester had spent less money on converting heavy rail routes to tramways.....

 

[Starmill]

If we specifically mean capacity, rather than taking quality or speed into account too, the issues there are at present will be broadly fixed, but it's likely they will be replaced with different ones. Hopefully they will just be the less serious ones that are faced today but who knows what the next three years will bring.

Also there really needs to be a more quantitative analysis. Saying 'on there are some 2 and 3 car units' by itself is pointless, it takes no account of things like 4 car sprinter working or peak services that are likely to be formed of 5 or 6 car 195s.

 

[Starmill]

5x23m Manchester to Huddersfield sticks out like a sore thumb in that list... firstly, outwith the peak extras Northern won't be operating it, and secondly the TPE services which will run will be formed of 185s:- a single one will be woefully under capacity and a double will be too long for the 5-car platforms. Even with a revision of TPE allocations there's nothing that IS the right length - it's 5x22m plus loco, or 5x26m, or nothing!

It doesn't really matter though, as services at 3*23m will be accomodated, and 5 of the 6 coaches in 6*23m will be sufficient for the numbers of people using those stations.

 

[Starmill]

3. Let it get overcrowded and do nothing again

You haven't even seen any of the enhancements yet, and yet people are going crazy as if they're a pre-ordaned failure.

Due to the desire for high utilisation of rolling stock, overcrowding is almost a fact of life. Not the same as Northern due to reaching more of a critical mass, but the new SWR franchise does not have any targets to reduce overcrowding, the targets are merely to add very significantly to capacity and keep overcrowding roughly the same as it is now.

As long as overcrowding affects the fewest number of services possible, is managed and not so bad that people can't get on, that's the best anyone can hope for.

 

[Old Hill Bank]

What a sad thing that this thread started with the word Pacer. You have been told they are going and are being replaced with new build DMUs.

 

[D365]

Both things that can be fixed, then.

With the right money...

 

[Chester1]

How have things changed since the franchise was granted? I thought the GWR cascade will be late but will still happen prior to 2020. The 769 units will make a big difference. If the GWR units are not transfered then perhaps the 185s could be leased instead. They have high running costs but they currently go off lease on 31/12/2019 with limited cascade options. Over crowding on electric services would very straightforward to resolve!

 

[AndrewE]

With the right money...

Maybe a good place to start repairing the discrepancy between London & the SE and the rest of us then...

 

[Old Hill Bank]

Maybe a good place to start repairing the discrepancy between London & the SE and the rest of us then...

Yeh, the Northern Whinge House and the South East. Those of us in the Midlands are sick of it.

 

[lejog]

How do you measure suppressed demand?
I would guess that the 40% capacity enhancement could be swallowed up within months of an upgrade if it happened today - and don't forget it's still more than 2 years away, by when traffic congestion will be worse, young people will probably be poorer still (and therefore more likely to be car-less) etc. etc... So as far as I am concerned, yes, I do think it is probably insufficient.

I asked if you had quantitive evidence, not what you guess. I've not seen actual passenger figures into the major cities for a few years now, but Northern's total passenger figures have only been rising at 3-4% per annum since 2011 (with a blip last year as they took over services from TPE) according to the ORR, using totals from the LENNON database. A 40% rise in a few years would be incredible.

 

[AndrewE]

Yeh, the Northern Whinge House and the South East. Those of us in the Midlands are sick of it.

You are lucky to be living in one of the few places outside greater London that has had planned, sensible and most importantly sustained investment on public transport over the last 4 or 5 decades, especially heavy rail. You clearly don't know what the daily travel situation is like outside your own bubble...