Brexit - Deal or No Deal?

[najaB]

So you've found one thing out of many that could hurt us, and you're acting like it all depends on it. This is one of many factors, and when all are added up, the EU will be hurt more.

You're the one who said "Basically if we get hurt, they get hurt more", are you going back on that?

Okay then, using Euratom as an example - how, precisely, does the UK leaving without a deal hurt the EU more than the UK?

 

[Barn]

I think there is too much focus on who would be hurt more, not just in this thread but in the media generally. That's over-analysis caused by bad-tempered arguments and isn't how real negotiations work in my experience.

The point is that both parties would be hurt sufficiently to make a deal eminently worth doing.

 

[najaB]

The point is that both parties would be hurt sufficiently to make a deal eminently worth doing.

Indeed. Both parties stand to lose if a deal isn't reached, but many of the strongest pro-Brexit voices act as if the UK is negotiating from a position of power and can dictate terms.

 

[D841 Roebuck]

An excellent post - what is common sense doing in this thread??

 

[fowler9]

Yes actually, and I try not to dismiss people's arguments as being ridiculous, but do you really think Britain is going to have no flights for 5 years? Let that sink in.

With all due respect you really don't know what you are talking about. It is the same old Brexit "Everything is going to be fine, why wouldn't it be" with absolutely nothing concrete in place to replace what is already there. I'm sorry but without something in place you cannot assume that flights and business will carry on as normal without agreements in place and your opinion is ridiculous. We are rapidly running out of time to agree a great many things. Take the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. As time marches on do you reckon the EU are suddenly going to let us have a porous border there and lock out EU nationals everywhere else? You live in a fantasy realm where Britannia rules the waves. I'm sorry if you take that as an insult as it isn't meant as one but you really don't live in the real world.

 

[Mvann]

Yes but the problem EU can't get there heads around is that to a certain extent is that Britain and Ireland had boarder agreements in place before the EU existed.

 

[furnessvale]

For example, cancer patients who can't get radiotherapy (EURATOM)?

Ah yes, the latest repeated threat from our EU "friends" the other day.
Of course, if we dare to mention EUs reliance on our intelligence services and a possible lack of co-operation from us, we are shouted down as playing with people's lives.

 

[fowler9]

Yes but the problem EU can't get there heads around is that to a certain extent is that Britain and Ireland had boarder agreements in place before the EU existed.

Irrelevant. EU law requires the Republic of Ireland to have customs checks. Unless an agreement is reached this will have to happen. We can agree to let anyone in, the Republic of Ireland can't.

 

[furnessvale]

However, while we are their 3rd largest market, we only account for this much of their exports:View media item 25
Would they miss it if it all disappeared? Yes. Would it be the end of their world? No.

The thing that is being mixed up in this debate is the difference between the political desire of the EU to punish the UK for having the temerity to leave their corrupt organisation, even if that punishment results in economic damage to individual EU countries, and the economic desire of large German companies to make profits.

Only time will tell which of those two quite different groups will win the argument, but given the economic clout of Germany, I wouldn't be putting a big bet on the Eurocrats winning.

 

[furnessvale]

Irrelevant. EU law requires the Republic of Ireland to have customs checks. Unless an agreement is reached this will have to happen. We can agree to let anyone in, the Republic of Ireland can't.

Thank you for confirming that if/when we leave with no deal, it will be the EU erecting border fences not the UK.

 

[Mvann]

But EU has to find some way of plugging an £8.5 billion hole in their budget

 

[najaB]

Ah yes, the latest repeated threat from our EU "friends" the other day.

If there's no deal, where will we get our radioisotopes from?

 

[Mvann]

America won't be happy as that would scupper part of the good Friday agreement

 

[fowler9]

Thank you for confirming that if/when we leave with no deal, it will be the EU erecting border fences not the UK.

Correct me if I am wrong, part of the whole leaving the EU thing was preventing freedom of movement? Am I wrong? If you were quite happy with freedom of movement across the EU and had some other reason for wanting to leave the EU feel free to correct me. The EU are quite happy with freedom of movement within their own economic bloc, it makes sense. With all due respect why would you think they would do otherwise? We want to leave, they are saying "See you later". Why the hell would they want to give a financial or physical incentive for people to leave something they feel is beneficial.

 

[fowler9]

America won't be happy as that would scupper part of the good Friday agreement

America are too busy building walls to stop all the drugs they use getting over the border. What makes you think America cares about the Good Friday Agreement? They spent years sending money to Noraid funding terrorists.

 

[Mvann]

The reason I voted leave was more to do with the the unconditional free movement of people. I.E there are times when you have to control it for what ever reason. I have no problem with people from Eire and northern island freely crossing their boarders for work. I also don't like the way the EU commission is going. A vote to stay was not a vote for a status quo.

 

[fowler9]

The reason I voted leave was more to do with the the unconditional free movement of people. I.E there are times when you have to control it for what ever reason. I have no problem with people from Eire and northern island freely crossing their boarders for work. I also don't like the way the EU commission is going. A vote to stay was not a vote for a status quo.

So you wanted freedom of movement for people from the Republic of Ireland but nowhere else? Any other countries you don't mind having freedom of movement with? As I recall the vote wasn't "Which countries do you mind having freedom of movement with?". Did you miss read it as being lets keep the Poles out?

 

[Mvann]

No. I have no qualms about who comes from where. My qualm is about the number of people coming here. Ireland is a different kettle of fish though. The Irish going from one part of Ireland to another has always happened and always should. The arrangements in place before the EU were fine.

As you misread earlier, my main gripe is about the way the EU is going. A vote to stay was no a vote for a status quo.

 

[najaB]

The reason I voted leave was more to do with the the unconditional free movement of people. I.E there are times when you have to control it for what ever reason.

I've never understood this obsession with free movement of labour. Surely having a larger talent pool to pull from can only be a good thing as it makes it more likely that jobs are filled by someone who is best-qualified for them? Or do people think that nationality is more important than capability?

 

[Barn]

Just to be clear, if there is any change to the border in NI, it'll be to do with customs checks, not immigration checks.

 

[Mvann]

In times of staff shortages, this country has always allowed immigrants in to this country. The problem is at the moment is that we still have loads of people coming to this country and don't have the infrastructure to cope

 

[najaB]

In times of staff shortages, this country has always allowed immigrants in to this country. The problem is at the moment is that we still have loads of people coming to this country and don't have the infrastructure to cope

That is entirely our own fault. We have way too many unoccupied premises and haven't built enough new homes. If the UK birth rate was higher and the jobs currently being filled by immigrants were being filled by nationals we would be in exactly the same situation.

But, naturally, it's easier to blame the foreigners.

 

[Mvann]

No. That's the governments fault. All governments that have been in power for the last 20 years. The problem with governments is that they don't do planning for any longer than they are expecting to stay in office for.

 

[najaB]

No. That's the governments fault. All governments that have been in power for the last 20 years. The problem with governments is that they don't do planning for any longer than they are expecting to stay in office for.

Since we're a democracy it is, in theory at least, all of our fault for not electing a government that would do what was needed. But in any case, whether you want to say it's the Government's fault or the electorate's, it certainly isn't the EU's fault.

 

[Mvann]

Which is why I said that although full unconditional free movement of people with no controls what so ever was a reason to leave, it's the way the EU is going was the main reason.

 

[Barn]

I have to say that immigration has never really been something that particularly bothers me.

It's definitely a positive to have ready access to genuinely highly skilled people going into genuinely highly skilled jobs. I hope we retain that in the future.

On lower skilled jobs, I would quite like to understand the fiscal impact a bit better. I know that, on a very simplistic measure, EU migrants as a whole bring in more in tax then they take out in welfare benefits. It would be good to really understand how the figures work when you look at the amount 'taken out' in services and (in particular) the amount required to be spent on capital infrastructure like primary schools, housing and GP surgeries, together with the wider effects on the economy of house price pressure. One has to earn a surprising amount to be a true net contributor to the economy. Whilst many EU migrants will, I do slightly struggle to understand how, in London, Pret à Mangers on every corner full of degree-educated EU migrants on tax credits can be doing any part of the EU economy much good.

I'm willing to be convinced either way if there is decent data.

 

[Mvann]

Probably about the same as the uk degree educated workers that are shelf stackers

 

[furnessvale]

If there's no deal, where will we get our radioisotopes from?

The same place the EU will get its security intelligence from I should image!
Seriously, where does the rest of the world get its isotopes from, or does the EU have a world monopoly on such supplies?

 

[highspeed990]

The same place the EU will get its security intelligence from I should image!
Seriously, where does the rest of the world get its isotopes from, or does the EU have a world monopoly on such supplies?

Exactly what I was going to say, I hope you are joking, NajaB.

NajaB, in response to your previous statement, let's say there are 10 factors. 2 of those factors cause a greater loss to The UK, and 8 causes more loss to the EU. Who is going to better off overall? This is for arguments sake.

As the topic has moved onto immigration, let's say it makes my blood boil that some somalian with 8 kids turns up and gets a free house while homeless soldiers starve on the streets. They should all go to the Kingdom of Belgium. If you have 7 babies of the same gender in a row, the seventh gets the king/queen as godmother/father and they get showered with royal gifts. I expect that's what they'll try for when we leave.

 

[jon0844]

Most Brexit voters seem very unable to make good arguments for leaving but invariably end up at immigration, whereby they can talk forever as their 'true colours' are revealed.

And here it seems it has finally happened.

I'm particularly impressed given Somalia isn't in the EU and we aren't part of Schengen so weren't letting them in (and if we were, it wasn't because the EU made us).

Anyone would think that it has only ever been about immigration, and not of EU nationals either.