Carmarthen to Aberystwyth Reopening?

[ChiefPlanner]

There's no magic cure for most things; whether there is for economic ills I've no idea. But regarding rail services, that 'Llanelli looks at Swansea, which in turn looks at Cardiff' I think is a big problem. Llanelli (and points west) should have good links to both Swansea and Cardiff in my opinion, and to acheive the latter means not going via Swansea. The TrawsLinkCymru group saw that, I think; since their proposed service was to Cardiff and not Swansea. Such a shame, I think, that they are focusing on the astronomically expensive project rather than a smaller part of the whole which would nonetheless provide some very real benifits.

I take it you're talking payback on the capital cost there. In terms of operating cost it would be a shorter route than the Cambrian and perhaps take only slightly fewer passengers out of Aberystwyth (and the Cambrian services load quite well there in my experience).

In a simple and sensible world - West Wales would have some direct , targeted fast (semi-fast) services via the Swansea District line to Cardiff or beyond (Bristol - replacing the present Cardiff - Taunton) as well as say a 30 min Metro style operation into Swansea High St and with a reverse out to Port Talbot (maybe reversing at Margam Moors or even a new Pyle with a centre turnback) - "Swansea Bay connector" .....

Parkway on the Swansea District (with great bus links to the Swansea Valley) and Carmarthen as proper regional hub with great coach links to Lampeter and Aberystwyth , and probably Cardigan as well. Hourly services to Pembroke Dock and towards / to Fishguard. Selective re-openings like St Clears which would have a seasonal bus connection to Tenby via Pendine.

Largely OPEX and a few stations - say £50m investment and some operating subsidy , and yes - £8m per year for year for the Carmarthen - Aber route costs , exclusive of OPEX.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

If the GWR had survived I suspect the scenario were talking about is Chamberlains Govt accepts the Square Deal in the 30's and Govt pays adequate recompense for War use? No Govt control holding prices down and insisting on steam locomotives to be built so as not pay for imported oil and buying crap British private sector built diesels?

Then the financial landscape would look very very different to that of what it did in the early 60's!

Freight would have moved to less than train load facilities only being available in towns with railway lorry's delivering onward. Rationalization of secondary and branch lines ie fewer staff, signal boxes, passing loops etc would have been a lot easier to achieve gradually. Some lines would have been better placed as running with railway owned bus feeders and smaller station on main lines might have had bus replacements to speed up Express services. Steam woudl gradually be phased out.

There would be no compunction for a mass closure programme.

Quite credible - and some of this was done - parcels and C+D rationalisation in the 1960's for example with road vans replacing "station trucks" etc. I suspect the 1970's and structural changes in economy and industry would have seen severe (if not quite as bad as post Beeching) economies , especially as the life extended ex GWR AEC Railcars wore out.....would make a nice "alternative" history to explore some of this , I have a hunch it was ..

 

[Hwnt52]

Surely the issue here is connectivity - how do we get people from Aberystwyth to Carmarthen, Swansea and Cardiff and vice versa quickly and efficiently. I have to go from Cardiff to Aberystwyth regularly for meetings and I know what a tortuous and tiring experience it is, and as I get older driving home in the night in the winter can be a nightmare. It takes 2.5 hours each way by the A470 and about the same time via the M4 which is a good bit longer. Developing Carmarthen as a rail-head and upgrading the Swansea District Line should enable fast trains to reach Cardiff from Carmarthen in just over an hour - if the Fishguard 150 can do it in an hour and a half, then surely this can be easily improved. Going via Swansea adds another half an hour. A great deal of effort has gone in to improve the road between Llandysul and Synod Inn. Further work on this road between Llandysul and Carmarthen, and between Aberystwyth and Aberaeron, should bring the travel time from Aberystwyth to Carmarthen down to an hour. All this could be achieved at a fraction of the cost of rebuilding what was a tortuous and poorly engineered line in the first place. Spending an obscene amount of money to achieve an objective that could be realised in a different way for a fraction of the cost is clearly insane.

 

[Llanigraham]

Agreed.
To be honest they have to spend the money on the investigation of the viability of this line. They will be damned if they do and they would be damned if they didn't. No-one is a winner other than those doing the investigation.
Personally I suspect that the answer will be "Not Viable", the pro side will have a moan about it a bit and then it will be forgotten for another 20 years.

 

[Pyreneenguy]

It's no wonder that interesting projects such as the Borders electrification and improvement of services ( in any form) can't get off the ground when the idiots are wasting money studying schemes such as this !

 

[Llanigraham]

What has "the Borders electrification" got to do with Wales?

 

[Rhydgaled]

Developing Carmarthen as a rail-head and upgrading the Swansea District Line should enable fast trains to reach Cardiff from Carmarthen in just over an hour - if the Fishguard 150 can do it in an hour and a half, then surely this can be easily improved. Going via Swansea adds another half an hour.

I think the Fishguard boat train is booked for a 158 these days, but often a 150 despite that. Anyway, putting together the fastest times for 175/158 booked services it looks like you could do it in 1hr 23-25min from Carmarthen to Cardiff with two stops (which I think should be Llanelli and Port Talbot Parkway). Going via Swansea can take as little as 1hr 40min, so it only adds 15mins at the moment. To get services any faster however would require track upgrades; personally I think the target should be 70mins (driving takes around 75), which would never be possible without using the district line, but how much upgrading would you need to do to get that?

A great deal of effort has gone in to improve the road between Llandysul and Synod Inn. Further work on this road between Llandysul and Carmarthen, and between Aberystwyth and Aberaeron, should bring the travel time from Aberystwyth to Carmarthen down to an hour. All this could be achieved at a fraction of the cost of rebuilding what was a tortuous and poorly engineered line in the first place. Spending an obscene amount of money to achieve an objective that could be realised in a different way for a fraction of the cost is clearly insane.

Aberystwyth to Carmarthen in an hour by bus!??!?!? You would be hard pressed to build a railway that could do it that fast, the T1 bus takes over two and a quarter (and doesn't go via Llandysul and Synod Inn).

 

[krus_aragon]

I am amazed that this thread has not been the vehicle for "going the whole hog" and proposing the full and final completion of the Manchester and Milford Railway...

Baby steps, Paul, baby steps!

 

[Greenback]

I am sure that ther eis an imbalanc ein public spending in Wales, and in othe rparts of the UK. I think that this could be down to the former industrial areas where mining and steel making used to be such an important part of life receiving mor emoney to try and mitigate the effect sof the decline of those industries It could be more for economic reasons than political reasoins, and a mere coincindence (though not a surprising one) that there is correlation between Labour heartlands and the areas where unionised heavy industry used to be the biggest employers.

As I've agreed before, a lot of the money that was poured into the valleys was wasted, because there wa sno way to make newer industries go to areas which were geographically unsuited to having large centres of employment. Whether we like it or not, the M4 corridor, and the north east corner of Wales are best sited for communication and connectivity reasons.

Resintatement of a passenger railway between Carmarthen and Aberystwyth is not going to help the regeneration of the area, or stimulate the economy there. That is the bottom line. One of those projects could be improving the rail links between West Wales and the capital.

 

[Hwnt52]

I think the Fishguard boat train is booked for a 158 these days, but often a 150 despite that. Anyway, putting together the fastest times for 175/158 booked services it looks like you could do it in 1hr 23-25min from Carmarthen to Cardiff with two stops (which I think should be Llanelli and Port Talbot Parkway). Going via Swansea can take as little as 1hr 40min, so it only adds 15mins at the moment. To get services any faster however would require track upgrades; personally I think the target should be 70mins (driving takes around 75), which would never be possible without using the district line, but how much upgrading would you need to do to get that?

Aberystwyth to Carmarthen in an hour by bus!??!?!? You would be hard pressed to build a railway that could do it that fast, the T1 bus takes over two and a quarter (and doesn't go via Llandysul and Synod Inn).

The SDL is a well-graded, well-engineered double track main line easily capable of a reasonably high-speed service. Putting the track into a good enough state should not be difficult.
I was not thinking of Aberystwyth to Carmarthen in one hour by bus, more in terms of driving to a park-and-ride at Carmarthen. In reasonable traffic it takes about one and a quarter hours at present. The preferred route is via Llandysul and Synod Inn, far better than routes via Lampeter which the bus uses.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

The SDL is a well-graded, well-engineered double track main line easily capable of a reasonably high-speed service. Putting the track into a good enough state should not be difficult.
I was not thinking of Aberystwyth to Carmarthen in one hour by bus, more in terms of driving to a park-and-ride at Carmarthen. In reasonable traffic it takes about one and a quarter hours at present. The preferred route is via Llandysul and Synod Inn, far better than routes via Lampeter which the bus uses.

Most of the Swansea District line was relaid when NR had the High Output Track relayer as their new , shiny, toy - regrettably in so doing , they removed the W8 container clearance - however - they are bound by Network Change to restore that if any traffic materialises.

"Engineering excellence" again .....

 

[ChiefPlanner]

I think the Fishguard boat train is booked for a 158 these days, but often a 150 despite that. Anyway, putting together the fastest times for 175/158 booked services it looks like you could do it in 1hr 23-25min from Carmarthen to Cardiff with two stops (which I think should be Llanelli and Port Talbot Parkway). Going via Swansea can take as little as 1hr 40min, so it only adds 15mins at the moment. To get services any faster however would require track upgrades; personally I think the target should be 70mins (driving takes around 75), which would never be possible without using the district line, but how much upgrading would you need to do to get that?

It was a 150 on Wednesday ! (often is I am told) - no offence , but it is an "International Train service" ! - with a bit of effort it could be linked into a Manchester service - there is a 158 at Cardiff quite close to it. I did suggest it to ATW Train Planning in the past - but as ever ....(yes I know you would need to rebalance sets etc)

 

[Pyreneenguy]

What has "the Borders electrification" got to do with Wales?

Sorry, my bad, I should have said "Borderlands line".

 

[Llanigraham]

Sorry, my bad, I should have said "Borderlands line".

I presume you mean the Marches Line? I didn't know there were any plans to electrify it.

Please see previous comments on why the have to do the inquiry.
Damned if they, damned if they don't!

 

[snowball]

I presume you mean the Marches Line? I didn't know there were any plans to electrify it.

I think the Borderlands line is a name for Bidston-Wrexham.

 

[PHILIPE]

I think the Fishguard boat train is booked for a 158 these days, but often a 150 despite that. Anyway, putting together the fastest times for 175/158 booked services it looks like you could do it in 1hr 23-25min from Carmarthen to Cardiff with two stops (which I think should be Llanelli and Port Talbot Parkway). Going via Swansea can take as little as 1hr 40min, so it only adds 15mins at the moment. To get services any faster however would require track upgrades; personally I think the target should be 70mins (driving takes around 75), which would never be possible without using the district line, but how much upgrading would you need to do to get that?

It was a 150 on Wednesday ! (often is I am told) - no offence , but it is an "International Train service" ! - with a bit of effort it could be linked into a Manchester service - there is a 158 at Cardiff quite close to it. I did suggest it to ATW Train Planning in the past - but as ever ....(yes I know you would need to rebalance sets etc)

I doubt you would find many passengers going beyond Cardiff, if any. The Marches is more or less an hourly clockface Timetable starting Carmarthen or Milford Haven alternately. Glad you appreciate the point of rebalancing sets but as they are all 175s on the Manchesters during the day don't think a 158 would fit in.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Quite credible - and some of this was done - parcels and C+D rationalisation in the 1960's for example with road vans replacing "station trucks" etc. I suspect the 1970's and structural changes in economy and industry would have seen severe (if not quite as bad as post Beeching) economies , especially as the life extended ex GWR AEC Railcars wore out.....would make a nice "alternative" history to explore some of this , I have a hunch it was ..

The Golden opportunity was however the 1954 Modernization Plan, if the British Transport Commission had done its job properly we could have easily have had BRS Lorries and Integrated Bus's at a fraction of the cost of Marshaling Yards and Trip working Diesel's.

Marples woudl have arrived has Transport Minister to a rail network that was slashing costs already no need to bring Dr Beeching (or whoever else) in. Nor would he have had to pinch rail modernization money for his motorways as the railway would not be consuming so much £.

OK some closures would have happened but nothing near the scale that did.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

This thread, being what it is, is something to come straight out of a book on Welsh fairy tales. For those interested in the granting of wishes in the hope that this line will be reopened, many years ago on holiday in Brynteg on Ynys Mon, I bought a book on Welsh fairy tales and in one particular story called "The Fairy Harp" in which a group of Cader Idris fairies had the power to grant wishes, suddenly sprang to my mind.

Has anyone beside me ever read this story?

 

[Gareth Marston]

This thread, being what it is, is something to come straight out of a book on Welsh fairy tales. For those interested in the granting of wishes in the hope that this line will be reopened, many years ago on holiday in Brynteg on Ynys Mon, I bought a book on Welsh fairy tales and in one particular story called "The Fairy Harp" in which a group of Cader Idris fairies had the power to grant wishes, suddenly sprang to my mind.

Has anyone beside me ever read this story?

I'll let you in on a secret Paul reopening Carmarthen to Aberystwyth is part of a left wing plot to destabilise the establishment of the UK.it will frighten the horses in Cheshire and other posh places

 

[CardiffKid]

Regrettably there's no "Amazing Stupidity and Ignorance" thread on this forum, so I'm going to post this ridiculous comparison here:

https://twitter.com/ifanmj/status/856480901819138050

 

[Greenback]

I despair, I really do.

 

[AndrewE]

Marples would have arrived has Transport Minister to a rail network that was slashing costs already no need to bring Dr Beeching (or whoever else) in. Nor would he have had to pinch rail modernization money for his motorways as the railway would not be consuming so much £.

OK some closures would have happened but nothing near the scale that did.

You have obviously never suffered "Management by objectives"

"OK, so you achieved that impossible target, see how you cope with this one then!..."

Given Marples' agenda (and his road-building sideline) do you really think a successfully cost-cutting railway would have just been given a pat on the back? Anyway, lines and staff costs had already been being cut for decades.

 

[Bevan Price]

I doubt you would find many passengers going beyond Cardiff, if any. The Marches is more or less an hourly clockface Timetable starting Carmarthen or Milford Haven alternately. Glad you appreciate the point of rebalancing sets but as they are all 175s on the Manchesters during the day don't think a 158 would fit in.

That may be the theory but 158s, and even occasional 150s are by no means unknown on the Manchester services.

 

[PHILIPE]

That may be the theory but 158s, and even occasional 150s are by no means unknown on the Manchester services.

I was actually referring to diagrammed work, so 150s not mentioned as they only deputise except for Sundays when they do have booked work.

 

[Gareth Marston]

You have obviously never suffered "Management by objectives"

"OK, so you achieved that impossible target, see how you cope with this one then!..."

Given Marples' agenda (and his road-building sideline) do you really think a successfully cost-cutting railway would have just been given a pat on the back? Anyway, lines and staff costs had already been being cut for decades.

My point is if BTC had opted to use the resources at its disposal in a co-ordinated way then the railway would have been moving away from the burden of common carrier legislation facilities in every corner and the costs they incurred before Marples arrived The marshalling yards and the hundreds of trip diesel locomotives were only going to do one thing incur much cost without producing many savings (we never got to find out how much as they were cancelled before the program was complete). Rationalization of rural/secondary routes was going to produce cost savings.

It would have been harder for Marples to come in and order a complete change of direction with costs coming down instead of loses mounting. He would have tried of course no doubt but a "Beeching Map" with already lowered branch line and secondary line costs would have looked very different.

 

[glbotu]

Regrettably there's no "Amazing Stupidity and Ignorance" thread on this forum, so I'm going to post this ridiculous comparison here:

https://twitter.com/ifanmj/status/856480901819138050

To be fair to him, the American one is pretty accurate for rail.........

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Any more news on this exciting plan ...?

Soon there will be spare tunnel driving shields avaialble , secondhand from the London area when Crossrail and the Northern line extesnions are done , perfect for the Pendinas tunnel on the approaches to Aber.

 

[najaB]

Soon there will be spare tunnel driving shields avaialble , secondhand from the London area when Crossrail and the Northern line extesnions are done , perfect for the Pendinas tunnel on the approaches to Aber.

Oi! Hands off!

I want them next for my tunnel under Shap Summit. You can have them afterwards.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Oi! Hands off!

I want them next for my tunnel under Shap Summit. You can have them afterwards.

Actually have them in mind to complete another Welsh project - the Pontardawe to Gwaun Cae Gurwen line , stalled in 1914 , but there is a partially completed tunnel bore (only 103 metres) , but it really needs finishing off and building.

Hang on - no collieries for it to serve any more - but it really is an inclusive and economically neccessary build....

 

[Llanigraham]

Chief Planner, did you know they also started to dig the portals on the line beyond Llangurig?

And I knew I meant to ask the Plaid candidate a question about this today!