Carmarthen to Aberystwyth Reopening?

[deltic]

Vimeo historic video of route
https://vimeo.com/103641050?ref=fb-share

fascinating video- can you spot the passenger!

 

[Gareth Marston]

Apart from competing rail projects with better qualifications, I think Welsh voters have to take on board their environmental and social aims, as well as economic ones. I visited west Wales because it is beautiful. It's a rural area (few people is what rural means) and thus it is important for west and north west Wales that it stays that way. Its economy is purely based on that fact, and thus if you carry on a business there (tourism) then you don't want easy access, because it's counter-productive. It's bad enough already, that some South Wales people have disfigured parts of their coastal landscape with their tatty caravan sites.

Welsh people have to make their mind up, what sort of country they want.

Because urban Britain and its fringes are so overpopulated there is tendency of people who live there to see any rural area as an under populated desert however the bulk of rural UK with exception of parts of the Scottish Highlands and Islands is no where near Wilderness status and is in fact quite highly populated by International standards.

 

[Gareth Marston]

As Amlwch didn't wash it's face, how could Carmarthen to Aberystwyth?

As I've said before, if it hadn't been closed it probably wouldn't be now. But it was and this is one of those routes where buses can cater for demand quite adequately.

As an enthusiast of railways, I'd like nothing better than to see lines reopened. I'm also a realist, though, and I have to recognise that as things stand, it's a pretty hopeless ambition in this case.

Maybe we'll look at things differently in a decade or two. Or maybe it will take a century. Never say never and all that, but definitely not now.

We will continue to have these debates because the Beeeching era closures were fundamentally flawed the assumption that everyone woudl live happily ever after driving cars completely ignored the huge downsides to that mode of transport pollution,congestion, health problems, land usage etc

The closures themselves are widely seen as part of a stitch up perpetrated by those who wanted a roads future. Closing "branch lines" was not a solution to the railways financial problems in the early 1960's caused by other factors.

The reality is the most economically prosperous part of the UK is the part of it with the best public transport and lowest rates of car usage whilst those most dependent on road remain way behind. It may not be cause and effect but there's a very strong correlation yet we saw the Welsh Government spinning the line at yesterdays M4 Inquiry that building more road capacity will bring economic development....

 

[najaB]

Because urban Britain and its fringes are so overpopulated there is tendency of people who live there to see any rural area as an under populated desert however the bulk of rural UK with exception of parts of the Scottish Highlands and Islands is no where near Wilderness status and is in fact quite highly populated by International standards.

This is true (and also quite a long sentence ) but passenger railways need passengers to make money, and they work best when they link densely populated areas. It's hard to see Carmarthen (13K people) and Aberystwyth (13K) generating enough traffic to justify the massive cost of reopening the line.

The money would be much better spent on other transport projects in Wales.

 

[Gareth Marston]

This is true (and also quite a long sentence ) but passenger railways need passengers to make money, and they work best when they link densely populated areas. It's hard to see Carmarthen (13K people) and Aberystwyth (13K) generating enough traffic to justify the massive cost of reopening the line.

The money would be much better spent on other transport projects in Wales.

The automatic assumption "no one is there so they don't need anything" does hack me off as apart from at University I've lived in the country since childhood and know different.

Alas with Carmarthen to Aberystwyth because Government is not interested in reversing Beeching in any holistic lets look at the whole of Wales approach and have a genuine National Transport plan (that does not involve long lists of road schemes that have been around since Welsh Office days) we end up with local campaigners who happen to be slap bang in the middle of Plaid voting territory banging their drum with political help.

Agree there are more and higher priority schemes.

 

[Taunton]

We will continue to have these debates because the Beeeching era closures were fundamentally flawed the assumption that everyone woudl live happily ever after driving cars completely ignored the huge downsides to that mode of transport pollution,congestion, health problems, land usage etc

Actually not, the key issue was (and is) that the railway did not serve the transport desires. Initial part is that stations were commonly not located at any point convenient - in rural areas especially they could be far removed from any objective, even that which they are ostensibly named after. The same applies to major areas - compare the rail daily commuting levels into say Leeds, station in the centre, with Bristol, which has one of the worst major city station locations relative to the commercial/retail centre. The stations on the various branch lines from Taunton which got closed in the 1960s were often the most remote buildings of their village area, which always had just half a dozen trains a day, where the Taunton bus went down the village high street every 30 minutes - and even those are gone now.

Rail advocates do excessively think that just because a station is called, say, Fishguard, that makes it somehow convenient for Fishguard.

 

[Llanigraham]

Actually not, the key issue was (and is) that the railway did not serve the transport desires. Initial part is that stations were commonly not located at any point convenient - in rural areas especially they could be far removed from any objective, even that which they are ostensibly named after. The same applies to major areas - compare the rail daily commuting levels into say Leeds, station in the centre, with Bristol, which has one of the worst major city station locations relative to the commercial/retail centre. The stations on the various branch lines from Taunton which got closed in the 1960s were often the most remote buildings of their village area, which always had just half a dozen trains a day, where the Taunton bus went down the village high street every 30 minutes - and even those are gone now.

Rail advocates do excessively think that just because a station is called, say, Fishguard, that makes it somehow convenient for Fishguard.

An excellent example, since neither stations are anywhere near the actual town!

Looking at the line in question the and it's centres of population at some of it's stations:
Pontrhydfendigaid/Strata Florida station, station over a mile from Pontrhydfg.
Tregaron, just out of main town.
Llangybi, small halt about half mile from village.
Lampeter, outskirts.
Llanbyther, outskirts.
New Quay Road, nowhere near New Quay!
Pencader, central.
Llanpumpsaint, about a mile from village.
Bronwydd Arms, nothing near.

 

[Pyreneenguy]

It never ceases to amaze me that a project such as this- that will never happen- has generated, so far, 816 replies and so much detail !

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

It never ceases to amaze me that a project such as this- that will never happen- has generated, so far, 816 replies and so much detail !

I am amazed that this thread has not been the vehicle for "going the whole hog" and proposing the full and final completion of the Manchester and Milford Railway...

 

[Gareth Marston]

Actually not, the key issue was (and is) that the railway did not serve the transport desires. Initial part is that stations were commonly not located at any point convenient - in rural areas especially they could be far removed from any objective, even that which they are ostensibly named after. The same applies to major areas - compare the rail daily commuting levels into say Leeds, station in the centre, with Bristol, which has one of the worst major city station locations relative to the commercial/retail centre. The stations on the various branch lines from Taunton which got closed in the 1960s were often the most remote buildings of their village area, which always had just half a dozen trains a day, where the Taunton bus went down the village high street every 30 minutes - and even those are gone now.

Rail advocates do excessively think that just because a station is called, say, Fishguard, that makes it somehow convenient for Fishguard.

A very selective approach one size does not fit all I'm afraid however look at the old Mid Wales line which did have stations convenient for the centers of the towns it served. Builth Wells was probably the furthest but that's only a 5 minute walk form the Barclays bank in the center of town.

 

[Llanigraham]

I am amazed that this thread has not been the vehicle for "going the whole hog" and proposing the full and final completion of the Manchester and Milford Railway...

I will object strongly to that proposal.......................my house is in the way!!

 

[Rhydgaled]

Rail advocates do excessively think that just because a station is called, say, Fishguard, that makes it somehow convenient for Fishguard.

An excellent example, since neither stations are anywhere near the actual town!

Fishguard's stations are actually reasonably suituated compared to some stations, but they're not well suituated for Fishguard. Fishguard Harbour is much praised for being a good example of rail-ship integration and Fishguard & Goodwick is in Goodwick (the only problem being that Goodwick is on a steep hill, making it a trek if you live at the top). The next stop along the line (at the junction with the Milford Haven line), Clarbeston Road is obviously (from the name) poorly sited for Clarbeston but these days I think Clarbeston Road is a bigger village than Clarbeston itself.

Looking at the line in question the and it's centres of population at some of it's stations:
Pontrhydfendigaid/Strata Florida station, station over a mile from Pontrhydfg.
Tregaron, just out of main town.
Llangybi, small halt about half mile from village.
Lampeter, outskirts.
Llanbyther, outskirts.
New Quay Road, nowhere near New Quay!
Pencader, central.
Llanpumpsaint, about a mile from village.
Bronwydd Arms, nothing near.

If the new line was actually built, I would envisage at most the following intermediate stations:

• Llanfarian (park & ride for Aberystwyth, on school/college mornings there is a tailback from here to Aberystwyth),
• Llanilar (maybe, it is a small place and the station would be on the edge; but I think I read somewhere there is quite a bit of commuting from there into Aberystwyth; maybe peak-only calls?),
• Tregaron,
• Lampeter (with bus link to Aberaeron and New Quay),
• Llanybydder,
• Pencader,
• Llanpumpsaint,
• Bronwydd Arms (actually only about 80 meters as the crow flies from the nearest house (which is part of a group of about 20) according to Google Earth)

I don't think I ever knew there was a New Quay Road station.

I am amazed that this thread has not been the vehicle for "going the whole hog" and proposing the full and final completion of the Manchester and Milford Railway...

If you want to link Manchester and Milford Haven with quick through trains, I would have thought the best thing to do would be rebuild the Carmarthen-Llandeilo link and try to speed up the HOWL north of there. It doesn't start getting particularly twisty until around just before Cynghordy; from there to Sugar Loaf it might be a bit tricky to get any sort of speed up but then it doesn't look too serious until the Llanbister Road to Knucklas section; a bit faster after that perhaps. Could you get from Carmarthen to Shrewsbury in three and a quarter hours? Faster than the current mammoth detour via Swansea and Cardiff anyway.

 

[Envoy]

I agree, a Carmarthen to Llandeilo re-opened link would provide the fastest route between Shrewsbury and Carmarthen even if you did nothing to speed up the HoW line.

Out of interest, I just did a check on prices for tomorrow for a journey from Llanelli to Shrewsbury & back. Going via the HoW, it takes 3 hours 38 minutes and via Cardiff & Hereford, around 3 hours 20 minutes. But, what is amazing is that if you go N via the HoW it will cost you £27.10 return - and that is any train return including using the Marches route. If you go via the Marches route, it will cost you a whopping £74.20 return! So, why would anybody pay £47.10 extra just to save about 25 minutes on this journey? If everybody knew this, they would at least go one way via the HoW between SW Wales and Shrewsbury. The Heart of Wales Day Rover covering the aforementioned routes is £39.

If you wanted to start in Cardiff, do the HoW and back from Craven Arms, it would appear that the cheapest way to do it is to buy a return to Llandrindod Wells for £29.20. The trouble with that is that you can’t leave until 13.13 and you won’t get back until 9.03pm! If you choose a more convenient schedule, it will cost you a whopping £62.70 return. So, more crazy pricing from ATW who are trying to win the franchise from the Welsh Government. Do any of the civil servants check out such things?

Presumably, if you were going from SW Wales to places beyond Shrewsbury, you would go via the HoW and then purchase another ticket for places beyond Shrewsbury? If you are not returning on the same day, it works out more expensive as you must buy Advance singles - the HoW trains work out far cheaper than going via Hereford.

PS. Anybody going from south Wales via the Marches to places beyond Crewe on the WCML should split the ticket at Crewe. Try CDF > EDB and you will see what I mean!

 

[najaB]

It never ceases to amaze me that a project such as this- that will never happen- has generated, so far, 816 replies and so much detail !

The Stranraer - Dumfries thread managed 375 and that's much less likely to happen. I think it has this thread beat on the posts to pointlessness ratio.

 

[Taunton]

I think it has this thread beat on the posts to pointlessness ratio.

Well it seems to have moved on to Carmarthen to Llandeilo now. Which even the old GWR regarded as redundant.

Taunton to Barnstaple next?

 

[Envoy]

Well it seems to have moved on to Carmarthen to Llandeilo now. Which even the old GWR regarded as redundant.

Taunton to Barnstaple next?

It is the fact that the *Welsh Government are going to spend £300,000 on consultants looking into re-building the Carmarthen to Aberystwyth Railway which has sparked all of this debate. (They could read what people are saying on this forum and save a load of taxpayers money)!

* It should be noted that it is Plaid Cymru who pushed the Labour run WG to spend this £300,000 on a feasibility study. It should also be noted that PC are against the building of a new 3 lane each way motorway S of Newport to solve the bootlneck at the tunnels.

Plaid Cymru quote:>

“We’ve put the Carmarthen to Aberystwyth rail link on the agenda, securing a £300,000 feasibility study and bringing it closer to reality. When completed, Plaid Cymru will have secured the most significant railway in Wales since the Beeching cuts of the 1960s.”

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-mid-wales-37703727

A feasibility study into reopening a railway line between Aberystwyth and Carmarthen has been allocated £300,000 in the Welsh Government's budget.
The original line stopped at more than 20 stations, but was closed in 1965.
Campaigners hope to re-establish a 90-minute service between Aberystwyth, Lampeter and Carmarthen and while many stretches could be reused, some new routes would be needed.
The cost has been estimated at about £500m.
A train journey without the proposed route takes about six hours, via Shropshire, Newport and Cardiff - and only about 90 minutes by car.

 

[Llanigraham]

It is the fact that the Welsh Government are going to spend £300,000 on consultants looking into re-building the Carmarthen to Aberystwyth Railway which has sparked all of this debate. (They could read what people are saying on this forum and save a load of taxpayers money)!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-mid-wales-37703727

A few ex-railwaymen from this area have been in discussion with some of the hierarchy of Plaid Cymru recently and have given their views over this proposal and how unrealistic it is.

 

[Gareth Marston]

A few ex-railwaymen from this area have been in discussion with some of the hierarchy of Plaid Cymru recently and have given their views over this proposal and how unrealistic it is.

Politics will always trump professional advice....

 

[Gareth Marston]

It is the fact that the *Welsh Government are going to spend £300,000 on consultants looking into re-building the Carmarthen to Aberystwyth Railway which has sparked all of this debate. (They could read what people are saying on this forum and save a load of taxpayers money)!

* It should be noted that it is Plaid Cymru who pushed the Labour run WG to spend this £300,000 on a feasibility study. It should also be noted that PC are against the building of a new 3 lane each way motorway S of Newport to solve the bootlneck at the tunnels.

Plaid Cymru quote:>

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-mid-wales-37703727

You have to remember theirs massive disquiet and distrust in the rest of Wales about the Welsh Governments spending priorities as Labour have been in power since 1999 with mainly votes from the ex Industrial areas of the South Wales valleys. There's a widespread perception they spend to "reward" their core vote and neglect the rest of Wales.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Surely a £30,000 study on passenger demand would answer the questions properly as opposed to rushing off with an infrastructure delivery plan or a call for even more work on the latter. IE - identify if there is a genuine gap in the "market" as opposed to getting excited about drawing lines on the Welsh landscape.

Note the BML2 aspirations have been kicked into touch by this business led approach - as opposed to "we have a great idea" let us rush off and plan a route rebuilding.

If (to quote a real life example - Aylesbury to Milton Keynes cannot drum up enough traffic for a class 153 , what hope this one ?)

 

[Greenback]

The perception will always be there no matter which party is in control in Cardiff. Weren't Plaid seen as being responsible for the air link to Valley and the introduction of Gerald? Political parties and governments always keep one eye on being re-elected, and the rhetoric of 'we are being ignored' is a powerful one to rally opposition at grass roots level.

Her ein Llanelli, the over riding feeling amongst the people that I know and socialise with, is that everything goes to Cardiff and nothing goes anywhere else. I often wonder how much truth there is in that in reality, and how much is just the perspective of being in a run down town that compares badly with a grwoing city area which is attracting a lot of inward investement.

As far as I can see, reopening the railway line between Carmarthen and Aberystwyth is not going to be a magical cure all for the economic ills of West Wales.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

The perception will always be there no matter which party is in control in Cardiff. Weren't Plaid seen as being responsible for the air link to Valley and the introduction of Gerald? Political parties and governments always keep one eye on being re-elected, and the rhetoric of 'we are being ignored' is a powerful one to rally opposition at grass roots level.

Her ein Llanelli, the over riding feeling amongst the people that I know and socialise with, is that everything goes to Cardiff and nothing goes anywhere else. I often wonder how much truth there is in that in reality, and how much is just the perspective of being in a run down town that compares badly with a grwoing city area which is attracting a lot of inward investement.

As far as I can see, reopening the railway line between Carmarthen and Aberystwyth is not going to be a magical cure all for the economic ills of West Wales.

I suppose Llanelli looks at Swansea , which in turn looks at Cardiff - and everyone assumes that the South East of Great Britain is over favoured over everywhere else.


In any case - where is the hard cash for this scheme - you would need a revenue of over £8 million per annum to get even basic payback on this scheme - so a ticket price or subsidy which is stratospherically unaffordable. Unless they find a gold seam on the way.

 

[Gareth Marston]

The perception will always be there no matter which party is in control in Cardiff. Weren't Plaid seen as being responsible for the air link to Valley and the introduction of Gerald? Political parties and governments always keep one eye on being re-elected, and the rhetoric of 'we are being ignored' is a powerful one to rally opposition at grass roots level.

Her ein Llanelli, the over riding feeling amongst the people that I know and socialise with, is that everything goes to Cardiff and nothing goes anywhere else. I often wonder how much truth there is in that in reality, and how much is just the perspective of being in a run down town that compares badly with a grwoing city area which is attracting a lot of inward investement.

As far as I can see, reopening the railway line between Carmarthen and Aberystwyth is not going to be a magical cure all for the economic ills of West Wales.

Statistically there is a identifiable skew towards Govt expenditure in Wales concentrating on Labour voting areas - its not at "they spend everything in Cardiff" levels perceived but the imbalance is there.

 

[CardiffKid]

Statistically there is a identifiable skew towards Govt expenditure in Wales concentrating on Labour voting areas - its not at "they spend everything in Cardiff" levels perceived but the imbalance is there.

You mean the places with the people in?

Cardiff has 10% of the Welsh population in less that 1% of the landmass.

 

[Gareth Marston]

You mean the places with the people in?

Cardiff has 10% of the Welsh population in less that 1% of the landmass.

Your suggesting that Government expenditure is evenly spent on a pro rata basis per head of population? Its not.

 

[CardiffKid]

Your suggesting that Government expenditure is evenly spent on a pro rata basis per head of population? Its not.

No not quite, but I think people often forget about the population imbalance we have in Wales and the spend that naturally goes with it.

I'm conscious that I'm saying this whilst living in Cardiff, but I did spend three years in Aberystwyth University followed by almost two years living and working in/around Newtown (2003-2008)

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Worth pointing out that Wales has abut 4.8% of the UK population , yet produces about 3% of the tax revenue , the economy is clearly less robust than many other parts of the UK , and this has to be taken into account on a realistic basis (one could also point out that Wales gets a smaller slice of "subsidy" than say Scotland).

Ergo - what gets spent in Wales clearly needs to be spent where it can do most good.- though realising that there are clear issues in the less populated parts of Wales , which could probably be addressed in more cost effective ways.

I wonder , if the GWR had by some miracle survived into the 21stC , what they would have done , - I suspect the route would have been long gone.?

 

[Gareth Marston]

No not quite, but I think people often forget about the population imbalance we have in Wales and the spend that naturally goes with it.

I'm conscious that I'm saying this whilst living in Cardiff, but I did spend three years in Aberystwyth University followed by almost two years living and working in/around Newtown (2003-2008)

50% of Wales population is in the old counties of Gwent and Glamorgan but the amount of regeneration money and Objective One European money that has gone into parts of them is what has skewed the figures.

 

[Rhydgaled]

Her ein Llanelli, the over riding feeling amongst the people that I know and socialise with, is that everything goes to Cardiff and nothing goes anywhere else. I often wonder how much truth there is in that in reality, and how much is just the perspective of being in a run down town that compares badly with a grwoing city area which is attracting a lot of inward investement.

As far as I can see, reopening the railway line between Carmarthen and Aberystwyth is not going to be a magical cure all for the economic ills of West Wales.

I suppose Llanelli looks at Swansea , which in turn looks at Cardiff - and everyone assumes that the South East of Great Britain is over favoured over everywhere else.

There's no magic cure for most things; whether there is for economic ills I've no idea. But regarding rail services, that 'Llanelli looks at Swansea, which in turn looks at Cardiff' I think is a big problem. Llanelli (and points west) should have good links to both Swansea and Cardiff in my opinion, and to acheive the latter means not going via Swansea. The TrawsLinkCymru group saw that, I think; since their proposed service was to Cardiff and not Swansea. Such a shame, I think, that they are focusing on the astronomically expensive project rather than a smaller part of the whole which would nonetheless provide some very real benifits.

In any case - where is the hard cash for this scheme - you would need a revenue of over £8 million per annum to get even basic payback on this scheme - so a ticket price or subsidy which is stratospherically unaffordable. Unless they find a gold seam on the way.

I take it you're talking payback on the capital cost there. In terms of operating cost it would be a shorter route than the Cambrian and perhaps take only slightly fewer passengers out of Aberystwyth (and the Cambrian services load quite well there in my experience).

 

[Gareth Marston]

Worth pointing out that Wales has abut 4.8% of the UK population , yet produces about 3% of the tax revenue , the economy is clearly less robust than many other parts of the UK , and this has to be taken into account on a realistic basis (one could also point out that Wales gets a smaller slice of "subsidy" than say Scotland).

Ergo - what gets spent in Wales clearly needs to be spent where it can do most good.- though realising that there are clear issues in the less populated parts of Wales , which could probably be addressed in more cost effective ways.

I wonder , if the GWR had by some miracle survived into the 21stC , what they would have done , - I suspect the route would have been long gone.?

If the GWR had survived I suspect the scenario were talking about is Chamberlains Govt accepts the Square Deal in the 30's and Govt pays adequate recompense for War use? No Govt control holding prices down and insisting on steam locomotives to be built so as not pay for imported oil and buying crap British private sector built diesels?

Then the financial landscape would look very very different to that of what it did in the early 60's!

Freight would have moved to less than train load facilities only being available in towns with railway lorry's delivering onward. Rationalization of secondary and branch lines ie fewer staff, signal boxes, passing loops etc would have been a lot easier to achieve gradually. Some lines would have been better placed as running with railway owned bus feeders and smaller station on main lines might have had bus replacements to speed up Express services. Steam woudl gradually be phased out.

There would be no compunction for a mass closure programme.