The Blue Route M4 would be just throwing more money away as it would only be 2 lanes each way - which is the problem at the tunnel choke point. In addition, the blue route would pass very near to residential areas thus bringing noise and pollution.
I repeat, the ONLY problem I can see that MIGHT require a road-building solution is the impact on the rest of the road network when the M4 is blocked at Brynglas. If so, it needs a solution which won't attract extra traffic, but will help the. Thus, the very fact that the blue route is only two lanes works in its favour; it is less likely to increase traffic but could still ease the problem of the M4 being blocked at Brynglas. In other words, I think traffic that currently uses the M4 should only use the Blue Route if the M4 is blocked.
Regarding Carmarthen to Aberystwyth; I cant help but think that given a choice of which line to close, most people would have chosen the Heart of Wales route over a route linking up the west side of Wales. Of course, I am sure that we would ideally have wished for both to remain open along with the link from Afon Wen (near Pwllheli) to Bangor via Caernarfon.
I don't think closing those two routes was necessarily a bad idea actually. Except perhaps the section from Bangor to Caernarfon, I don't think they look like they would meet modern requirements (too slow to compete with driving). The same could perhaps be said of the HOWL. Going back to the Caernarfon and Lampeter routes, to be fit for the modern world the southern half of both would need rerouting or tweaking in a number of places, as shown on
the rail Wales map on my website.
I am puzzled about debates on highway capacity. On one hand we are being told with completely straight face that the cars will all be automatically guided in a few years allowing the lanes to be made narrower and the cars spaced more closely - if this were the case we can already be looking at rationalising the highway network - yet as a society we go on setting aside more land for highways as if capacity will always be that established by prior experience. Which will it be?
If self-driving cars become a reality, I hope they don't end up being owned by individuals and frequently used on motorways; I think that would be very bad. It would bestow some of the features that attract pepole to public transport (using a laptop while travelling, for example) to private cars, making modal shift even harder to achieve.
The good version of self-driving cars would be as a rural on-demand 'last-mile' link in the public transport system (like Bwcabus*, only more-responsive, with the ability to make bookings closer to your departure time). You book the car, it comes and collects you then drives you to the nearest suitable bus stop / train station for your journey, perhaps picking somebody else up on the way. If the stop has no shelter, it waits with you until your train/bus arrives, they you get out of the car and onto the bus/train.
* I assume, I've not actually tried it.
I am in rural Wales - Heart of Wales Line territory - and can say everybody here has no money but nonetheless are able to beg borrow or steal a nice car. When the lack of EU farming subsidies happens and government cuts starting to bite even this option might be foreclosed. I think rural railways are going to become a real lifeline in our post-peak-oil world.
Does what you say above about rural Wales above now offer a brand new hope for the reinstatement of the Mid-Wales Railway?
Trains are expensive; if it is cost that drives pepole out of their cars, I think the solution is more likely to be a mass resurection of rural bus services (or the on-demand rural self-driving shared car system I mentioned above).
the Welsh Government maintain these main roads crossing Wales to a very high standard. Those of you entering Cardiff on the very busy A48 Eastern Avenue will notice all the bodging up repairs that Cardiff Council do on this major highway. I wish the WG would take control of all A roads.
I'm not so sure about that, one lane of the A487 was closed for months a few years back before they found the money to fix the subsidance issue causing the closure. Although I'm anti-bypass, I am pro-bus and buses need roads so I do think they should maintain the roads we have. Also, I accept that private cars cannot be completely eliminated and it is greener not to have them standing at a red light more than is necessary. Instead of building all these bypasses, it would be useful if a share of the budget currently used for building them was put aside as an emergency repair contingency fund (with the rest used for public transport / NHS / other good causes).
But building a railway through 40 odd miles of open countryside to serve practically no economic need or solve any reasonable transport objective is sustainable?
Maybe, maybe not; it depends how many cars you can take off the road compared to other options such as better bus services or increasing the tax on petrol/diesel for cars.
IGiven that within a decade or so the majority of cars sold in this country will have some form of electric propulsion, the environmental / sustainability argument of building new railways vs new roads pretty much disappears doesn't it?
Not really, no. Diesel cars are generally more polluting than diesel buses and (with the possible exception of Voyagers) diesel trains. Electric public transport (with the possible exception of HS2 at 200 odd mph) is still going to be more energy efficient than private transport, and even renewables have emissions associated with the construction of the generating equipment (so the less generation capacity you need, the better). And, of course:
Electric propulsion does nothing to solve congestion
How does that help the long distance traffic that uses the M4?
Since you weren't responding to one of my posts there, I will attempt to answer a slightly different question. "How could you help take long distance traffic off the M4?" Putting in capacity and linespeed improvements on the GWML, SDL and the Llanelli-Carmarthen line to allow Carmarthen-Cardiff fast services (calling at only Llanelli and Port Talbot and ideally taking 70 minutes or less) and possibly later extending them to Aberystwyth might help.
