Is there any way out of this strike action?
RMT want to continue as currently
Northern are forced by their franchise agreement not to continue as currently.
Doesn't seem to me that either party will ever be able to resolve the issue. We could still be here in three years time.
Saying that the RMT want to continue as currently might be correct , however in an initial meeting with Ariva Rail Northern they did offer a compromise of a scot-rail type deal with drivers releasing doors and guards closing them to alleviate issues over platform dwell times because guards cannot release straight away in some instances . This was rejected .
I do think this is going to be a long dispute .Aslef wont get involved until plans are put forward to them which effect their membership . If they do go into dispute as well the dispute will worsen especially as the impact of ASLEF strikes will be far more disruptive .
What will happen is that the unions will lose, just like on Southern. Northern's hands are, as you say, tied. It's not a case of a TOC wanting DOO and possibly able to be convinced otherwise, it's a case of a TOC required to implement DOO.
ASLEF have not agreed a deal on Southern yet ...
I reckon long term the RMT could make it worse. If Arriva can come to an agreement with ASLEF they can start running DCO services. If the RMT make it difficult for them to operate non-DCO services then Arriva could look at options for moving towards 100% DCO, opposed to staying at 50% DCO. Some people might argue that's the plan anyway but it could happen during this franchise if the dispute goes unresolved rather than post-2025.
What do you think the chances are of Arriva reaching such an agreement with ASLEF ? If the terms of that agreement are put to referendum like the southern agreement has been I think it is perfectly reasonable to be optimistic that it will be rejected .Up here there is no DOO-P at all and drivers have seen very local examples with Christopher McGee and Martin Zee of what world of responsibilities they are letting themselves in for by operating the doors . Not to mention that many drivers dont want to be on a train on their own with a load of passengers and all of the issues they can bring
Of course Arriva could impose a new method of work , but even then ASLEF could still probe very disruptive to that process by withdrawing rest day work and striking .
Arriva looking at options to move to 100% DOO would be a fruitless exercise because many of the considerations stopping them are limitations with infrastructure on a lot of routes . The more and more money network rail looses from budget cuts the harder it comes for them to upgrade the infrastructure up north to allow for 100% DOO . If it was feasible it would have been in the franchise spec so that Arriva was saddled with the whole job of breaking the unions rather than just half the battle . Any agreement for DCO is only going to be specific to route and traction . So at some point in the future it seems plausible to suggest that we are going to have the same dispute with regards to total extension to the whole network like is currently going on with Southern . Arriva are not required to do that as part of this franchise so I suspect that they wont even attempt any more than is necessary .
As far as I'm aware Northern drivers don't currently have any DOO/DCO door releasing duties, I think it will be extremely difficult for Northern and Aslef to agree a deal on this as I can't see any deal being voted in by the majority of members.
I agree with this 110% .
Of course a new method of work could be implemented without agreement , but ASLEF could still disrupt its introduction significantly . And imposing a new method of work and terms and conditions would significantly degrade the relationship between Arriva and Aslef drivers which would probably not then recover before the end of the franchise . Given many of the plans for service improvements , new traction and new routes are going to rely on driver goodwill and maintaining a rest day working agreement this would be incredibly stupid .So that will probably be what happens .