New South Western franchise: Awarded to First/MTR

[Matt Taylor]

You cannot start adding even one stop at Surbiton or Clapham in the morning peak without losing at least one train path, unless you run a linear service with all trains calling at the same stations it simply won't work without sacrificing capacity beyond Woking.

 

[infobleep]

Not unless the infrastructure interventions (discussed quite a few times already) happen, namely the 5th tracking inbound from Surbiton OR the building of Crossrail 2, one or other is required to get those outer suburban services you mention off the fast lines.

So I'd say a definite NO in the timescales of this franchise, and especially in the 2018 timetable.

You cannot start adding even one stop at Surbiton or Clapham in the morning peak without losing at least one train path, unless you run a linear service with all trains calling at the same stations it simply won't work without sacrificing capacity beyond Woking.

I was under the impression that three metro paths were used by other trains in the morning because they were stables elsewhere the night before. Could these be released to Woking given there is to be additional rolling stock and a timetable recast.

Capcity increases are great elsewhere but they really do in my opinion need to fix the issues surrounding Clapham Junction.

 

[Suraggu]

So lets look at the possibilities for these trains to replace SWT's existing fleet being introduced in 2019.

Bombardier Aventra (unlikely due to Crossrail/TfL order)
CAF Civity (unlikely due to factory order full with TPE/Northern order).
Hitachi AT100 (Will any European factory have availability?)
Stadler Flirt UK (Busy delivering Greater Anglia fleet.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

So much for competition and letting the market decide then.

We are going back to the days when the SRA micromanaged franchises.
Part of the scenario was the SRA was short of money after railway finances went out of control because of Railtrack's collapse, WCRM, and all the safety work needed (TPWS etc).
So several franchise deals were cut back, including the "no growth" franchises of Northern, ATW etc.
SWT's share of this was to have its upgrade plans cancelled (infrastructure as well as new trains).
That allowed the SRA to divert the last batch of 450s for SWT to Silverlink/LM (as 350s), to avoid having to buy another fleet of new trains for the WCML.

The DfT was severely criticised by the CMA for "fixing" the rolling stock market, so they have decided to let the TOCs get on with it, except for mega-procurements like IEP, Thameslink and HS2 stock to come.

Meanwhile TfL (LO, Crossrail) and Transport Scotland, also Merseyrail, still do their own procurement separate from the local TOC, who simply run the trains.

 

[godfreycomplex]

So lets look at the possibilities for these trains to replace SWT's existing fleet being introduced in 2019.

Bombardier Aventra (unlikely due to Crossrail/TfL order)
CAF Civity (unlikely due to factory order full with TPE/Northern order).
Hitachi AT100 (Will any European factoty have availability?)

My money's on Stadler

 

[greaterwest]

Guildford - Farnham is a waste of time.

You have a 4 minute wait at Aldershot for a train and when you come back you have a 4 minute connection again.

Also there's the issue of platforming at Farnham, unless they completely rewrite the Guildford - Ascot timetable so that there's a decent gap between the Up/Down London's & Guildford - Farnham/Ascot trains.

You're going to need to have extra time to do the shunt move down the reception road, change ends and then back out again and still have a decent gap between the London's.

Headways under the new signalling is approx 3', but it's pointless running them too close as there won't be enough passengers to convey and make it worthwhile.

It has to be asked if one of the trains will miss out Wanborough or not, as most of the time you stop there no one boards or alights.

Indeed, and also if they keep the current 2tph Ascot - Guildford and they don't significantly change the timetable, they'll be trying to shoehorn seven trains an hour via Ash, and if something goes wrong, it's going to cause massive disruption.

7tph via Ash would be;

3 x GWR, one of which will stop at Ash
2 x Ascot-Guildford
2 x Farnham-Guildford

 

[Bletchleyite]

My money's on Stadler

Well, if they've already designed it for Merseyrail and just need to make a load of the same but longer...

 

[Townsend Hook]

So lets look at the possibilities for these trains to replace SWT's existing fleet being introduced in 2019.

Bombardier Aventra (unlikely due to Crossrail/TfL order)
CAF Civity (unlikely due to factory order full with TPE/Northern order).
Hitachi AT100 (Will any European factoty have availability?)

I would include Stadler in the runners and riders as well, as they are now producing trains for the UK market.

 

[swt_passenger]

...but they really do in my opinion need to fix the issues surrounding Clapham Junction.

Not the job of a TOC to do that though, so not relevant to a change of franchisee. Additional Clapham Junction stops are prevented by the headway requirement of the mainline trains. Nothing changes that with a First takeover.

 

[Deepgreen]

There seems to be a large gulf between the new franchisee's promises about frequency increases and journey time reductions, and the reality of what can be achieved with the current and approved infrastructure improvements. Given this, how have they been permitted to make such seemingly undeliverable claims and win the franchise?

Am I being too simplistic, or is this essentially a scandalous mess?

 

[3141]

My money's on Stadler

One of the requirements of the ITT was about dwell times at Clapham Junction. The 455s were said to be unable to achieve the target. I'd be surprised if the Stadler trains we've seen pictures of so far, with a single door per coach, could do that.

 

[Bungle965]

One of the requirements of the ITT was about dwell times at Clapham Junction. The 455s were said to be unable to achieve the target. I'd be surprised if the Stadler trains we've seen pictures of so far, with a single door per coach, could do that.

I'm sure that Neil Williams will be here in a minute to say that Stadler are highly flexible and will most likely be able to change the design of the train to suit the operator.
Sam

 

[HarleyDavidson]

Not the job of a TOC to do that though, so not relevant to a change of franchisee. Additional Clapham Junction stops are prevented by the headway requirement of the mainline trains. Nothing changes that with a First takeover.

What doesn't help at Clapham is the slow access to the up loop there, it's 15 mph in & out of it and with a 9,10 or 12 car train it takes ages to clear it, also the poor pathing of the current timetable doesn't help either.

You get the up Exeter (1Lxx) which calls at Clapham Jn, followed by a 1Wxx which doesn't & a 1Pxx that doesn't, a 1Axx that doesn't.

The result is you have an often late running 1L delay several other non stop services and a queue of trains approaching Clapham and a deterioration in the punctuality of services.

It only took me a short while to work out what my maximum "point to point" speed I needed to stop me coming to a stand between Earlsfield & Clapham.

 

[Townsend Hook]

One of the requirements of the ITT was about dwell times at Clapham Junction. The 455s were said to be unable to achieve the target. I'd be surprised if the Stadler trains we've seen pictures of so far, with a single door per coach, could do that.

The new Merseyrail units appear to have two doors per side in each of the centre carriages.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'm sure that Neil Williams will be here in a minute to say that Stadler are highly flexible and will most likely be able to change the design of the train to suit the operator.
Sam

Stadler fan club here as requested. The Merseyrail units are to have two doors per "coach" in the middle coaches. Some of the SBB ones have two doors per "coach" in the end vehicles too.

 

[3141]

There seems to be a large gulf between the new franchisee's promises about frequency increases and journey time reductions, and the reality of what can be achieved with the current and approved infrastructure improvements. Given this, how have they been permitted to make such seemingly undeliverable claims and win the franchise?

Am I being too simplistic, or is this essentially a scandalous mess?

My particular interest is in the service from Overton, where I live. The new franchise refers to a reduction in journey times from Salisbury. That may be achievable for the fast service, which doesn't stop at Overton. But I don't see any prospect of improvements in speed or capacity on the services I use.

Some of the other promised reductions are probably also achievable, provided that the timetable works well. As the franchisee is supposed to work very closely with Network Rail the improvements may be related to a lot of good intentions on the part of both of them. There will be more platforms available at Waterloo, and the proposed new stock will contribute as well on some routes.

So I doubt that it's as bad as "undeliverable", but I'll be pleasantly surprised if it all works out as proposed.

 

[The Ham]

Indeed, and also if they keep the current 2tph Ascot - Guildford and they don't significantly change the timetable, they'll be trying to shoehorn seven trains an hour via Ash, and if something goes wrong, it's going to cause massive disruption.

7tph via Ash would be;

3 x GWR, one of which will stop at Ash
2 x Ascot-Guildford
2 x Farnham-Guildford

It is likely that there will only going to be 1 train per hour per direction running Farnham - Guildford.

However the the general consensus is that this will be at the expense of the Ascot Guildford services (possibly as simple as extending the service to run ...Frimley, Aldershot, Farnham, Aldershot, Ash... or by splitting the service so that it runs Asoct to Aldershot with the Farnham to Guildford service being run by a different unit), so even if 2tph each way there is unlikely to be any change in the frequency of services using the Ash level crossing.

By my maths that's still 5tph (4tph until the third GWR service starts).

However, even 10tph (at least in terms of rail capacity, as that is 6 minutes between trains and there are some current services which are only 4 minutes apart leaving Guildford) should at least in theory be possible, although long before you reach that point the amount of time the level crossing is closed for would be a problem.

 

[hassaanhc]

Personally I want to know what will happen to the peak timetables.

Will they be able to run a service from Woking to Clapham Junction during the morning high peak. Currently the paths used by stopping services are taken up by other metro services. This stopping services then use up paths north of Surbtion, that outside of the peak, the longer distance services only
use.

Will they be able to find away of running a semi fast or fast service that stops at Surbtion between 18.41 and 19.59. As they seem to be able to run fast services at 17.39, 18.09 and 18.40, it can be an infrastructure issue. Just rolling stock and staffing issue.

Harder may be still possible? Could they find away of being able to run a service to Alton that stops at Surbtion between 16.42 and 20.10. Every other hour south it has a service every 30 minutes.

Finally the hardest of all, is the possibility to run a semi fast service to Surbtion in the morning from anywhere. I'm aware the infrastructure plays a part here as there are less lines through Surbtion heading north than there are heading south.

I wonder if infrastructure upgardes will be announced as part of this franchise. We can do x but only if Network Rail do y. If Network Rail don't do y then x won't happen.

After all look at the North Downs Line, which was part of the Great Western Railway franchise award. Additional train per hour agree which currently can't happen due to level crossing issues that were already known about by some not but everyone it seems.

On a wider point, could more fast services stop at Wimbledon? They do so during the tennis, so could they do so at other times of the year or does the stopping for the tennis automatically delay the trains but due to numbers travelling them, it's worth delaying the trains?

Semi fast trains stop at Wimbledon on a Sunday. If they move to a Saturday frequency in the afternoon, which these cease?

Why not just use the stoppers and change elsewhere? Still quicker than waiting for a non-existant fast!

 

[fairysdad]

Don't even bother looking, they won't be combining the franchises operationally. There's no precedent for it, not even with similar neighbours such as Southern and Southeastern. The owning group can consolidate certain back office functions, that's all.

Weren't Virgin operationally ambiguous back in the days when they had the WC and XC franchises, particularly when the Voyagers were first thrust upon us?

Also, while not necessarily combined franchises, would this have the potential to add a bit of flexibility in some places? The potential for an Axminister - Barnstaple service (or, God forbid, Waterloo - Barnstaple!) have been mooted on these forums a few times, might this be a more realistic prospect now? (Although, I do realise that the main barrier to this is paths and stock rather than the TOCs involved!)

 

[hassaanhc]

Well why didn't South West Trains reduce the official connection time at Aldershot to 4 minutes then? Resolves the problem. Other stations less 5 minutes connection times. It's one of SWTs weaker points that's for sure, in that the most likely fastest most journey is never shown, so many people are unaware of it!

Same happens at Weybridge if coming from Chertsey and going towards Woking.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Weren't Virgin operationally ambiguous back in the days when they had the WC and XC franchises, particularly when the Voyagers were first thrust upon us?

They were but that was in the early days. The DfT have now realised the difficulty of unpicking such "mergers" and won't countenance them to the same extent now.

 

[Deepgreen]

Indeed, and also if they keep the current 2tph Ascot - Guildford and they don't significantly change the timetable, they'll be trying to shoehorn seven trains an hour via Ash, and if something goes wrong, it's going to cause massive disruption.

7tph via Ash would be;

3 x GWR, one of which will stop at Ash
2 x Ascot-Guildford
2 x Farnham-Guildford

Seemingly not going to happen in the foreseeable future owing to the level crossing risk issue on the NDL.

 

[Deepgreen]

My particular interest is in the service from Overton, where I live. The new franchise refers to a reduction in journey times from Salisbury. That may be achievable for the fast service, which doesn't stop at Overton. But I don't see any prospect of improvements in speed or capacity on the services I use.

Some of the other promised reductions are probably also achievable, provided that the timetable works well. As the franchisee is supposed to work very closely with Network Rail the improvements may be related to a lot of good intentions on the part of both of them. There will be more platforms available at Waterloo, and the proposed new stock will contribute as well on some routes.

So I doubt that it's as bad as "undeliverable", but I'll be pleasantly surprised if it all works out as proposed.

One wonders why SWT didn't offer these wonderful improvements in their bid (or did they?) if they are achievable. Extra/some longer platforms at Waterloo there may be, but the number and speed of paths isn't going to change much. Clapham Junction alone will continue to constrain the whole operation.

The much-vaunted SWT/NR partnership ended a while ago in what I have heard was some acrimony. I wonder if First Group has a different/better relationship with NR (GW electrification as a shining example)?

 

[swt_passenger]

What doesn't help at Clapham is the slow access to the up loop there, it's 15 mph in & out of it and with a 9,10 or 12 car train it takes ages to clear it, also the poor pathing of the current timetable doesn't help either.

Those of us who remember all the previous discussions know all that. The limitations preventing additional Clapham Junction calls have been explained to infobleep a number of times already...

 

[swt_passenger]

Indeed, and also if they keep the current 2tph Ascot - Guildford and they don't significantly change the timetable, they'll be trying to shoehorn seven trains an hour via Ash, and if something goes wrong, it's going to cause massive disruption.

7tph via Ash would be;

3 x GWR, one of which will stop at Ash
2 x Ascot-Guildford
2 x Farnham-Guildford

I'm voting for a service split of the sort put on the table in the ITT service specification spreadsheet.

 

[Kite159]

My particular interest is in the service from Overton, where I live. The new franchise refers to a reduction in journey times from Salisbury. That may be achievable for the fast service, which doesn't stop at Overton. But I don't see any prospect of improvements in speed or capacity on the services I use.

Some of the other promised reductions are probably also achievable, provided that the timetable works well. As the franchisee is supposed to work very closely with Network Rail the improvements may be related to a lot of good intentions on the part of both of them. There will be more platforms available at Waterloo, and the proposed new stock will contribute as well on some routes.

So I doubt that it's as bad as "undeliverable", but I'll be pleasantly surprised if it all works out as proposed.

But on the bright side, Overton is gaining an hourly Sunday service (so less sitting around at Basingstoke waiting for the clock face departure time) [if I'm reading the ITT Spec correctly]

I guess the devil will be in the detail, which I'm guessing will start coming out next week after the standstill period [although I can see the Clapham call getting swapped from the Exeter services to the Salisbury locals, at least in the Up direction]

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Weren't Virgin operationally ambiguous back in the days when they had the WC and XC franchises, particularly when the Voyagers were first thrust upon us?

Virgin indeed ran WC and XC as essentially one franchise with shared resources.
They were both long-term (15-year) franchises, but with slightly different terms.
XC had a break clause, which DfT exercised in 2006 to rebid the franchise, whereas WC did not.

The pooling of costs generally broke down when Chiltern were found to be using franchise funds to help open access WMSR out of a black hole (or possibly the other way round).
Anyway it was all about WSMR stops at Banbury.

 

[hwl]

So lets look at the possibilities for these trains to replace SWT's existing fleet being introduced in 2019.

Bombardier Aventra (unlikely due to Crossrail/TfL order)
CAF Civity (unlikely due to factory order full with TPE/Northern order).
Hitachi AT100 (Will any European factory have availability?)
Stadler Flirt UK (Busy delivering Greater Anglia fleet.

Siemens currently have little in the Krefeld order book publicly from late 2018 apart from German HS stock.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Siemens currently have little in the Krefeld order book publicly from late 2018 apart from German HS stock.

But why bin the 707s then order more 5-car Desiro Citys?

For losing the 707s to make sense they have to be planning something that isn't from Siemens.

 

[Class172]

Is there any possibility that Alstom could be in a position to offer a replacement for the 707s?