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Carmarthen to Aberystwyth Reopening?

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PHILIPE

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While they can't be done at the same time, I don't see how that affects the installation at Cardiff Central. The ValleyLines and Cardiff-Swansea projects both require electrification of the Cardiff-Bridgend section of the GWML (the Valleys need it because of the Maesteg-Cardiff service), and I would have thought (as a layman) that it is easier to do all the knitting for pointwork etc. for all platforms at Cardiff Central at once to avoid having to switch the OHLE on the main lines off in order to tie-in the wires for the ValleyLines platforms at a later date.

Getting a little confused here as to how this post refers to Carmarthen to Aberystwyth re-opening.
 
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Rhydgaled

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Getting a little confused here as to how this post refers to Carmarthen to Aberystwyth re-opening.
Sorry, bit of thread drift going on there (Gareth Marston and Envoy mentioned the Cardiff Metro a few posts back and I was replying to some of that).
 

70014IronDuke

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SHOCK HORROR! Journalist in quick 200 worder with no contrary or questioning opinion

EXCLUSIVE! MP supports economically bonkers, totally unviable, populist transport project in hope of getting votes story!!!!

And he can always say: I supported it, but the 'experts' vetoed it.

Why isn't there an emoticom for "Oh groan - head in hands .. not this thread AGAIN?" feeling?
 

Gareth Marston

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SHOCK HORROR! Journalist in quick 200 worder with no contrary or questioning opinion

EXCLUSIVE! MP supports economically bonkers, totally unviable, populist transport project in hope of getting votes story!!!!

And he can always say: I supported it, but the 'experts' vetoed it.

Why isn't there an emoticom for "Oh groan - head in hands .. not this thread AGAIN?" feeling?

Ken Skates is the Minister at the Welsh Government responsible for transport so with an extra £400 million from Hammond today perhaps he knows something we don't???:p
 

ChiefPlanner

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Ken Skates is the Minister at the Welsh Government responsible for transport so with an extra £400 million from Hammond today perhaps he knows something we don't???:p

I spotted the ever optimistic Cambrian News article and held back. I suppose the money to Wales would ideally go towards the Valleys wiring (£150m or so ?) - but will probably go to crank up the repressed road building tendancy - Heads of the Valleys and M4 Newport area ? (would love to be proven wrong on the latter ...)
 

Envoy

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I spotted the ever optimistic Cambrian News article and held back. I suppose the money to Wales would ideally go towards the Valleys wiring (£150m or so ?) - but will probably go to crank up the repressed road building tendancy - Heads of the Valleys and M4 Newport area ? (would love to be proven wrong on the latter ...)

The black route (3 lane each way) new M4 south of Newport is desperately needed. As things stand, south Wales > southern England traffic is often jammed for miles due to congestion caused by the Newport tunnel (2 lanes each way on a very busy section of the M4). A465 Heads of the Valleys road has been very dangerous and the new dualled sections are bound to have reduced road casualties. When the present Clydach Gorge section is completed in 2017, it will leave just the Dowlais to Hirwaun section to be dualled. This would then form an ideal alternative route linking Swansea & SW Wales with the Midlands as well as the heads of the valleys.

If Ken Skates were to look on Google Earth, he might like to zoom down on Aberystwyth and try to figure out how a re-built railway from Carmarthen is going to enter the town? Much of the Aberystwyth bit has been built upon. Pull down the yellow man for Streetview and you will see practically brand new houses built on the bed of the former railway. I wonder if the residents are aware that if the line were re-built that their homes might have to be demolished? The only alternative would surely be an expensive tunnel through the hill. So, the WG are going to spend £300,000 on consultants to figure this out?
 

Gareth Marston

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The black route (3 lane each way) new M4 south of Newport is desperately needed. As things stand, south Wales > southern England traffic is often jammed for miles due to congestion caused by the Newport tunnel (2 lanes each way on a very busy section of the M4). A465 Heads of the Valleys road has been very dangerous and the new dualled sections are bound to have reduced road casualties. When the present Clydach Gorge section is completed in 2017, it will leave just the Dowlais to Hirwaun section to be dualled. This would then form an ideal alternative route linking Swansea & SW Wales with the Midlands as well as the heads of the valleys.

If Ken Skates were to look on Google Earth, he might like to zoom down on Aberystwyth and try to figure out how a re-built railway from Carmarthen is going to enter the town? Much of the Aberystwyth bit has been built upon. Pull down the yellow man for Streetview and you will see practically brand new houses built on the bed of the former railway. I wonder if the residents are aware that if the line were re-built that their homes might have to be demolished? The only alternative would surely be an expensive tunnel through the hill. So, the WG are going to spend £300,000 on consultants to figure this out?

The road schemes you mention are not needed what nonsense. no country in the world has solved road congestion problems by building more road capacity, it induces traffic and it will only create bigger traffic jams somewhere else slowing the economy down further. You have to do something to take traffic off the roads and in South Wales its the Metro.
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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SHOCK HORROR! Journalist in quick 200 worder with no contrary or questioning opinion

EXCLUSIVE! MP supports economically bonkers, totally unviable, populist transport project in hope of getting votes story!!!!

And he can always say: I supported it, but the 'experts' vetoed it.

People could then say to both of them.."Your cynically opportunistic/journalistic view, based on little or no knowledge of the subject matter, quite rightly counted for naught in the grand manner of things"....:D
 
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jhy44

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A good start would be to first upgrade the existing Cardiff-Carmarthen line. It currently takes 2 hours by train, or 1 hour 20 by road.

Nobody I know from Aber goes up from Cardiff by rail via Shrewsbury - they either get the bus all the way, or get the train to Carmarthen and then get the bus from there

Cardiff - Aber by bus = 3 hours.
By car = 2.5 hour

Cardiff - Carmarthen by train = 2 hours
Carmarthen - Aber by train = around 2 hours minimum surely
Cardiff - Aberystwyth by train = 4-5 hours?

That is not a competitive journey time.

Upgrading the Carmarthen-Swansea-Cardiff line would therefore be absolutely essential to making an eventual Cardiff-Aber train even remotely competitive to the bus or car and therefore economically viable, and would deliver benefits much quicker and for less investment than the reopening of the line, if say Cardiff-Carmarthen could be brought down to 1.5 or even 1 hour.
In fact such an improvement would benefit the entire of West Wales.

Have any improvements even been muted? A more logical Swansea-Carmarthen route would be to follow the existing M4 inland, and it always seems a farce for Swansea-Port Talbot trains to go via Neath, why reopen the Swansea Town Tawe-Crossing and have a new coastal line?
 
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gareth950

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The road schemes you mention are not needed what nonsense. no country in the world has solved road congestion problems by building more road capacity, it induces traffic and it will only create bigger traffic jams somewhere else slowing the economy down further. You have to do something to take traffic off the roads and in South Wales its the Metro.

Completely agreed 150%. Not only that, but the proposed 'black route' will cause huge irreversible, catastrophic damage to the wildlife and environment of the Site of Special Scientific Interest Gwent levels. Species of wildlife will be completely wiped out and will lose their habitats forever. Naturalist and BBC wildlife presenter Iolo Williams has called the black route an 'environmental crime' and he is totally right.

Carwyn Jones said a few months ago that they won't build the 'blue route' - because Labour would lose the votes of people in the area for a generation as the route 'goes right next to people's homes' - but Labour are happy to wipe out several species of wildlife and destroy sensitive environmental habitats for a temporary solution to road congestion. We'll be back here again in 20 years when another 'relief road' type scheme would be needed.

I'm no eco-warrior environmentalist, but we're in 2016 now not 1960 and we know that road building doesn't solve the problem of traffic congestion - it just encourages more of it! The cheapest of most efficient way to move people on mass, and transport goods on mass, is by rail.
 
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Bald Rick

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The road schemes you mention are not needed what nonsense. no country in the world has solved road congestion problems by building more road capacity, it induces traffic and it will only create bigger traffic jams somewhere else slowing the economy down further. You have to do something to take traffic off the roads and in South Wales its the Metro.

I'm sorry that's nonsense. How many people stuck on the M4 around Newport would switch to travel by South Wales Metro? What Wales needs is the Metro and the M4 relief road.

There is no doubt that new roads induce traffic (as do new and improved railways) but that doesn't make them wrong. It's called economic growth.

It is also not correct to say that new roads always lead to bigger jams somewhere else. To use a relevant example, throughout the 70s and 80s, before the M4 was finished, our family holidays were in West Wales. In the 70s it took over 5 hours to get there from Surrey. There were jams for miles on the approach to the Severn Bridge, the Newport Tunnels, the A48 around Cardiff, the A48 around Bridgend, Briton Ferry, Pontarddulais, the A48 at Crosshands / Cwmgwilli, Camarthen, Banc y Felin and St Clears.

With the M4 being completed, the second Severn crossing, and improvements to the A48 and A40, all of that has gone, with the notable exceptions of the Newport tunnels, the end of the M4 at Pontarddulais and Camarthen. It now takes a little over 3 hours. Congestion on a long, long trip is much reduced. Local congestion is much reduced. And I can not see how it has led to bigger jams elsewhere.
 

Gareth Marston

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I'm sorry that's nonsense. How many people stuck on the M4 around Newport would switch to travel by South Wales Metro? What Wales needs is the Metro and the M4 relief road.

There is no doubt that new roads induce traffic (as do new and improved railways) but that doesn't make them wrong. It's called economic growth.

It is also not correct to say that new roads always lead to bigger jams somewhere else. To use a relevant example, throughout the 70s and 80s, before the M4 was finished, our family holidays were in West Wales. In the 70s it took over 5 hours to get there from Surrey. There were jams for miles on the approach to the Severn Bridge, the Newport Tunnels, the A48 around Cardiff, the A48 around Bridgend, Briton Ferry, Pontarddulais, the A48 at Crosshands / Cwmgwilli, Camarthen, Banc y Felin and St Clears.

With the M4 being completed, the second Severn crossing, and improvements to the A48 and A40, all of that has gone, with the notable exceptions of the Newport tunnels, the end of the M4 at Pontarddulais and Camarthen. It now takes a little over 3 hours. Congestion on a long, long trip is much reduced. Local congestion is much reduced. And I can not see how it has led to bigger jams elsewhere.

Fans of roads mean economic growth theory the evidence does not support you. WG commissioned a consultants report on what they thought was the benefits of their road building programme around 12 years ago, one of the things they said was they couldn't find any impact on GVA at a sub regional level. After a couple of weeks on their website it was taken down when people started to notice it.

In the 1990's the poorest region in the UK was Ynys Mon a magic answer to this was promised and delivered extending the A55 dual carriageway across the island. Opened with great fanfare in the early 2000's YNys Mon remains the poorest part of the UK today.

Decades ago when the road network was transformed by building dedicated road space it might have had some effect but in 2016 in a fully developed road based economy at a UK level the impact of any one scheme is so minimal against the big picture it makes no difference.

If the Duplicate motorway around Newport is ever built the Jams at the Cotyton interchange and Cardiff Gate will only get worse.
 
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DPWH

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A good start would be to first upgrade the existing Cardiff-Carmarthen line. It currently takes 2 hours by train, or 1 hour 20 by road.

Nobody I know from Aber goes up from Cardiff by rail via Shrewsbury - they either get the bus all the way, or get the train to Carmarthen and then get the bus from there

Cardiff - Aber by bus = 3 hours.
By car = 2.5 hour

Cardiff - Carmarthen by train = 2 hours
Carmarthen - Aber by train = around 2 hours minimum surely
Cardiff - Aberystwyth by train = 4-5 hours?

That is not a competitive journey time.

Upgrading the Carmarthen-Swansea-Cardiff line would therefore be absolutely essential to making an eventual Cardiff-Aber train even remotely competitive to the bus or car and therefore economically viable, and would deliver benefits much quicker and for less investment than the reopening of the line, if say Cardiff-Carmarthen could be brought down to 1.5 or even 1 hour.
In fact such an improvement would benefit the entire of West Wales.

Have any improvements even been muted? A more logical Swansea-Carmarthen route would be to follow the existing M4 inland, and it always seems a farce for Swansea-Port Talbot trains to go via Neath, why reopen the Swansea Town Tawe-Crossing and have a new coastal line?

This is what I was saying on the other thread. There are still many potential improvements to be made to the existing network which should be prioritised over reopening obscure bits of the network.

Most of the campaign for reopenings (e.g. railfuture) are rail enthusiasts who want to make join up the dots on maps with crayons but don't want to deal with issues arising such journey times, whether there's available capacity on existing routes to run a service from a new branch, etc.
 

D1009

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Why bother having a feasibility study then, if he knows the answer already? ;)
Well for some reason my current wifi connection doesn't allow me to open the article, but if all the Minister is saying is that the reopening can be delivered, given unlimited resources that is true. There is no commitment to deliver it, so like many ministerial pronouncements, it is effectively meaningless.
 

Bald Rick

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Fans of roads mean economic growth theory the evidence does not support you. WG commissioned a consultants report on what they thought was the benefits of their road building programme around 12 years ago, one of the things they said was they couldn't find any impact on GVA at a sub regional level. After a couple of weeks on their website it was taken down when people started to notice it.

In the 1990's the poorest region in the UK was Ynys Mon a magic answer to this was promised and delivered extending the A55 dual carriageway across the island. Opened with great fanfare in the early 2000's YNys Mon remains the poorest part of the UK today.

Decades ago when the road network was transformed by building dedicated road space it might have had some effect but in 2016 in a fully developed road based economy at a UK level the impact of any one scheme is so minimal against the big picture it makes no difference.

If the Duplicate motorway around Newport is ever built the Jams at the Cotyton interchange and Cardiff Gate will only get worse.

You've mentioned that study before. I'm not doubting it. However there are plenty of other studies out there that show how roads - and railways - contribute to economic growth. It is absolutely implausible to suggest that today's GB economy would be in the same position as it is now without the Motorway network.

The A55 may have been sold on the principle of delivering economic growth to Ynys Mon (I don't know what was said at the time), but in reality it was building the final part of a trains European route to connect Ireland. It has almost certainly helped the Irish economy. As an aside, it has helped me get to Snowdonia a few times, trips that I would not have considered without it.

Whilst the jams at Coryton and Cardiff Gate may well get worse, the congestion at Newport (which in my experience is whenever I go there, indeed there's over a mile of congestion there now at 11pm) will be practically eliminated.

Jams at Coryton and Cardiff Gate may well be reduced by South Wales Metro. Congestion at Newport wouldn't.

Hence the need for both.
 

moggie

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The M25 is a four lane superhighway for many sections of its length.......and still get jammed solid. Just imagine what use a ring railway linking with each mainline it bisects would get if the former NLL is anything to go by.

Translate to elsewhere. The M4 will just flow a little more freely until the next bottleneck. in other words they just move the problem as the distribution road network struggles to cope with extra traffic created by better trunk networks. An alternative and viable transport offering might achieve a similar benefit to the extra road capacity without just moving the problem (station car parking excepted).
 

Llanigraham

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A good start would be to first upgrade the existing Cardiff-Carmarthen line. It currently takes 2 hours by train, or 1 hour 20 by road.

Nobody I know from Aber goes up from Cardiff by rail via Shrewsbury - they either get the bus all the way, or get the train to Carmarthen and then get the bus from there
I KNOW PEOPLE WHO DO. IN FACT THERE WERE 3 LADIES ON THE TRAIN THIS EVENING FROM SHREWSBURY GOING HOME TO ABER HAVING BEEN SHOPPING IN CARDIFF. I HAD A NICE CHAT WITH THEM. I ALSO KNOW PEOPLE FROM MACHY AND HERE WHO DO THE SAME

Cardiff - Aber by bus = 3 hours.
By car = 2.5 hour IF YOU ARE VERY LUCKY!!

Cardiff - Carmarthen by train = 2 hours
Carmarthen - Aber by train = around 2 hours minimum surely DOUBT IT!
Cardiff - Aberystwyth by train = 4-5 hours? 4 HOURS

That is not a competitive journey time.

Upgrading the Carmarthen-Swansea-Cardiff line would therefore be absolutely essential to making an eventual Cardiff-Aber train even remotely competitive to the bus or car and therefore economically viable, and would deliver benefits much quicker and for less investment than the reopening of the line, if say Cardiff-Carmarthen could be brought down to 1.5 or even 1 hour.
In fact such an improvement would benefit the entire of West Wales.

Have any improvements even been muted? A more logical Swansea-Carmarthen route would be to follow the existing M4 inland, and it always seems a farce for Swansea-Port Talbot trains to go via Neath, why reopen the Swansea Town Tawe-Crossing and have a new coastal line?

Not relevant and a pipe dream!
 

Envoy

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I agree with the point raised that the slow journey time between Cardiff & Carmarthen by rail compared to road is a disincentive to travel be train. Surely, what is needed is an express service calling at Bridgend, Port Talbot and then via the Swansea District Line direct to Llanelli with the possibility of a new station (Park & Ride) near M4 J45 at Morriston with bus links to the hospital and Swansea City centre. From Llanelli, trains could go non stop to Carmarthen.
 

ChiefPlanner

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I agree with the point raised that the slow journey time between Cardiff & Carmarthen by rail compared to road is a disincentive to travel be train. Surely, what is needed is an express service calling at Bridgend, Port Talbot and then via the Swansea District Line direct to Llanelli with the possibility of a new station (Park & Ride) near M4 J45 at Morriston with bus links to the hospital and Swansea City centre. From Llanelli, trains could go non stop to Carmarthen.

Exactly - the Swansea District line parallels the western end of the M4 , and is hopelessly underused. (now there is vritually no freight) - an asset built by the Edwardians slumbering away.

Being from that part of the world , I find a surprising number of people from north of Morriston / towards Ammanford employed in Central Cardiff who make a miserable road journey every day along the M4.

Something like an hourly Carmarthen - Cardiff in the peaks (am to / pm from - 0630 - 0730 and 1700 -1800 routed "fast" to Port Talbot then key stations AND the M4 park and ride on the Valley road to Pontardawe would do far more economic and social benefit. Connecting of course to the Carmarthen - Abersytwyth bus / coach link.

All very well dreaming of Manors and milk trains around Pont Llanio - you can do that in the books ...
 

Envoy

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Exactly - the Swansea District line parallels the western end of the M4 , and is hopelessly underused. (now there is vritually no freight) - an asset built by the Edwardians slumbering away.

Being from that part of the world , I find a surprising number of people from north of Morriston / towards Ammanford employed in Central Cardiff who make a miserable road journey every day along the M4.

Something like an hourly Carmarthen - Cardiff in the peaks (am to / pm from - 0630 - 0730 and 1700 -1800 routed "fast" to Port Talbot then key stations AND the M4 park and ride on the Valley road to Pontardawe would do far more economic and social benefit. Connecting of course to the Carmarthen - Abersytwyth bus / coach link.

All very well dreaming of Manors and milk trains around Pont Llanio - you can do that in the books ...

I wonder if trains from the Heart of Wales Line could be sent east from Pontarddulais via the District Line to Port Talbot and onto Cardiff? Surely, that would be more useful than going to Swansea via Llanelli? It would also encourage more tourists to use the HoW for the circular trip around southern Wales via the Marches as it would cut about 40 minutes off what is a rather lengthy journey. (Passengers for Swansea could use a new bus link from a new station at Morriston). So, Ammanford and Llandeilo would have direct trains to Cardiff and as such, would be less inclined to use the car.
 
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Gareth Marston

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You've mentioned that study before. I'm not doubting it. However there are plenty of other studies out there that show how roads - and railways - contribute to economic growth. It is absolutely implausible to suggest that today's GB economy would be in the same position as it is now without the Motorway network.

The A55 may have been sold on the principle of delivering economic growth to Ynys Mon (I don't know what was said at the time), but in reality it was building the final part of a trains European route to connect Ireland. It has almost certainly helped the Irish economy. As an aside, it has helped me get to Snowdonia a few times, trips that I would not have considered without it.

Whilst the jams at Coryton and Cardiff Gate may well get worse, the congestion at Newport (which in my experience is whenever I go there, indeed there's over a mile of congestion there now at 11pm) will be practically eliminated.

Jams at Coryton and Cardiff Gate may well be reduced by South Wales Metro. Congestion at Newport wouldn't.

Hence the need for both.

Unfortunately here in Wales too many people shout economic development without understanding the subject. Its taken as perceived wisdom by many politicians that building roads is some form of economic magic bullet. There's been dual carriageways into the valleys for over 30 years yet it remains behind economically. The A470 was dualled up the Taff Valley to Merthyr in the late 70's for example. I lived in Swansea in the late 70's and can remember the excitement about the M4 being built. Swansea has qualified for the higher level of EU assistance due to its weak economy. A lot of other things effect economic development such as skills and agglomeration factors. Were quite delusional as a nation as the other things are harder than a Minister being photographed in a high viz vest.

Theirs also the nationalist agenda of the evil English under investing in our Country to factor in. Any sensible comparison of South Wales with areas of England will probably show more investment from government not less.

A parallel commitment for an M4 Relief Rd and the Metro will see the road sucking funds from the Metro leading to it being descoped. The Metro is about agglomeration economics and long term development. The road is about short term flag waving about some tunnels in Newport being less congested and the traffic jam moves elsewhere at great cost.

Carmarthan to Aberystwyth line reopening campaigners also shout economic development..............
 

ChiefPlanner

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Unfortunately here in Wales too many people shout economic development without understanding the subject. Its taken as perceived wisdom by many politicians that building roads is some form of economic magic bullet. There's been dual carriageways into the valleys for over 30 years yet it remains behind economically. The A470 was dualled up the Taff Valley to Merthyr in the late 70's for example. I lived in Swansea in the late 70's and can remember the excitement about the M4 being built. Swansea has qualified for the higher level of EU assistance due to its weak economy. A lot of other things effect economic development such as skills and agglomeration factors. Were quite delusional as a nation as the other things are harder than a Minister being photographed in a high viz vest.



Very well put ....I seem to recall about 10 years ago a fiendishly expensive proposal to finish off the last few miles into Holyhead which would have demolished the berthing sidings at Holyhead - and saved about 4 mins on the road journey to or from the port. Of very little economic benefit to the hinterland which has suffered even more economic problems since - (I don't think it happened)

Again - a favourite of the 1970's - building industrial units and approach roads - many of which seemed to have failed in their origin.

Relatively simple service changes - the extra Cambrian services and the line speed improvements / resignalling on the Aber - Salop corridor have arguably delivered more jobs and benefits than wanton , profligate road building. By all means - targetted improvements like some by-passes / grade seperation on roads to replace roundabouts (the A1 is an excellent example) , do add value.
 

Gareth Marston

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Improving the skills base will take a generation or more and a radical shift in education policy. Agglomeration economics and linking Cardiff to its hinterland so everyone can access jobs in Cardiff i.e South Wales Metro will take a decade and upset those in the Valleys that want the jobs to go there. Authorizing road construction is a bit more instant and looks like your doing something to the ill informed.....

Increasing the size of the Wales and Borders fleet by 100 carriages will be transformational across Wales however its hard for a Minister to open it and get a photo.
 

Llanigraham

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I wonder if trains from the Heart of Wales Line could be sent east from Pontarddulais via the District Line to Port Talbot and onto Cardiff? Surely, that would be more useful than going to Swansea via Llanelli? It would also encourage more tourists to use the HoW for the circular trip around southern Wales via the Marches as it would cut about 40 minutes off what is a rather lengthy journey. (Passengers for Swansea could use a new bus link from a new station at Morriston). So, Ammanford and Llandeilo would have direct trains to Cardiff and as such, would be less inclined to use the car.

From my experience the people who catch the HoW south of Llandovery want to go to Swansea, and not Cardiff, be that for college, shopping or anything else. Making them change onto a bus service defeats the object of going by train in the first place.
 

Envoy

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Increasing the size of the Wales and Borders fleet by 100 carriages will be transformational across Wales however its hard for a Minister to open it and get a photo.

Right now, Arriva Cross Country are planning to reduce from 3 coaches to 2 coaches some of the (mainly overloaded) class 170 trains on the Cardiff > Gloucester > Birmingham > Nottingham route. So, we are likely to be going backwards in terms of capacity on this route.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
From my experience the people who catch the HoW south of Llandovery want to go to Swansea, and not Cardiff, be that for college, shopping or anything else. Making them change onto a bus service defeats the object of going by train in the first place.

Could not two 153’s be used with them splitting/joining at Pontarddulais? I understand that GWR will be hiving off some 153’s in a year or so. You would not know how many wish to go to Cardiff (or the east) rather than Swansea because no such service exists.
 
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