Expansions for Scotland's rail network proposed

[backontrack]

I'm interested in exploring cheaper options which utilise only part of the line. Let's focus on the Glasgow market for the moment.

The business case will be dependant on commuters, so how far could you extend Glasgow-Alloa services before that market would tail off?

The Glasgow to Alloa journey time will drop from 55 mins to 45 mins post electrification. Alloa to Kincardine is 6 miles which would take, say, 10 mins including dwell time at Alloa, giving a Glasgow to Kincardine journey time of 55 mins, which is quite reasonable.

Kincardine to Valleyfield is 6 miles so thats another 10 mins onto the journey time giving a 65 minute commute to Glasgow, which is stretching the limit.

Any stops east of Valleyfield are going to be too far for regular commuting to Glasgow.

Glasgow-Kincardine:
6 miles of upgraded and electrified track.
1 new station.
Population served by new station - 3000
Journey time - 55 mins
Cost - £20-30m?

Glasgow-Valleyfield:
12 miles of upgraded and electrified track.
2 new stations.
Population served by new stations - 6000
Journey time - 65 mins
Cost - £50-60m?

Glasgow-Kincardine ticks the boxes in terms of journey time, would cost relatively little and would deliver good political capital. Its the sort of thing you could see as a good news announcement in the lead up to the next Holyrood election.

That was exactly my thinking! The SNP could announce that they're investing in Clackmannanshire with a 'new' line to Kincardine with stations at Cambus and Clackmannan. The line would also be wired relatively easily due to its short length. I'm just astounded that the SNP don't have any plans for Levenmouth!

 

[matchmaker]

I'm interested in exploring cheaper options which utilise only part of the line. Let's focus on the Glasgow market for the moment.

The business case will be dependant on commuters, so how far could you extend Glasgow-Alloa services before that market would tail off?

The Glasgow to Alloa journey time will drop from 55 mins to 45 mins post electrification. Alloa to Kincardine is 6 miles which would take, say, 10 mins including dwell time at Alloa, giving a Glasgow to Kincardine journey time of 55 mins, which is quite reasonable.

Kincardine to Valleyfield is 6 miles so thats another 10 mins onto the journey time giving a 65 minute commute to Glasgow, which is stretching the limit.

Any stops east of Valleyfield are going to be too far for regular commuting to Glasgow.

Glasgow-Kincardine:
6 miles of upgraded and electrified track.
1 new station.
Population served by new station - 3000
Journey time - 55 mins
Cost - £20-30m?

Glasgow-Valleyfield:
12 miles of upgraded and electrified track.
2 new stations.
Population served by new stations - 6000
Journey time - 65 mins
Cost - £50-60m?

Glasgow-Kincardine ticks the boxes in terms of journey time, would cost relatively little and would deliver good political capital. Its the sort of thing you could see as a good news announcement in the lead up to the next Holyrood election.

One problem is that the X24 coach does Glasgow - Kincardine in 43 minutes only stopping at Cumbernauld.

 

[clc]

One problem is that the X24 coach does Glasgow - Kincardine in 43 minutes only stopping at Cumbernauld.

Is that journey time reliable during the rush hour though? Plus the train takes you closer to the cbd and you have easy interchange to the north electric low level and subway lines at Queen St.

 

[Altnabreac]

Just a quick point to remember in your discussions - Longannet has a high voltage National Grid interconnector, making it ideally suited for an auto transformer feeder site (ATFS) with which to feed Fife Circle electrification and provide additional cover for an isolated supply on the Stirling-Alloa-Dunblane side of the existing scheme.

For my money, I think I'd run a DMU service from Stirling to Leven (yes, I'm assuming the Levenmouth project happens too) as if you're going to reverse at Dunfermline, why not go a little further and add in a lot more regional connectivity, which is pretty poor at the moment - if you're not going to Dundee or Edinburgh, rail in Fife isn't really all that good.

Electrification in due course would allow a through service between Glasgow and Leven, yes, that's a little bit odd, but it would give Glenrothes and Dunfermline a direct Glasgow service, and it gets the unit operating such a service out of the way of services operating on the Fife Circle or between Edinburgh and Dundee.

Leven is really in a sweet spot - the branch is useful for the railway, where it can be a glorified siding, and if it's used like that, the train services that can be provided to Leven could be extremely useful in regenerating a terribly deprived part of Britain.

Levenmouth really does have a much better business case than any other line in Scotland. Ticks every box for population, journey time, regeneration.

Fife Council and Scottish Government really need to get their acts together and agree a funding package for it.

 

[clc]

Levenmouth really does have a much better business case than any other line in Scotland. Ticks every box for population, journey time, regeneration.

Fife Council and Scottish Government really need to get their acts together and agree a funding package for it.

It wasn't mentioned in the SNP manifesto (which did mention possibility of Borders extension and Alloa-Dunfermline) so if it's to make progress in the next 5 years it looks like it'll have to be driven by the council, presumably using City Deal money.

 

[gsnedders]

Is that journey time reliable during the rush hour though? Plus the train takes you closer to the cbd and you have easy interchange to the north electric low level and subway lines at Queen St.

It's been a long while since I've been on rush-hour X24 services, but they tend not to be too bad, timetable wise. This is especially helped by the M80's opening, and they haven't been re-timed since. (They were re-timed for the 40mph average speed camera enforced speed limit when the A80-to-M80-upgrade was underway, however.) As a result, they often actually end up sitting around at Cumbernauld and Kincardine off-peak.

It's also probably worthwhile to remind people who don't know the area as well that the big bottleneck is the Kingston Bridge—so only the X24 services *to* Glasgow are particularly affected at rush hour.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Electrification in due course would allow a through service between Glasgow and Leven, yes, that's a little bit odd, but it would give Glenrothes and Dunfermline a direct Glasgow service, and it gets the unit operating such a service out of the way of services operating on the Fife Circle or between Edinburgh and Dundee.

I've always wondered if there's a market for more direct rail connections from Fife to Glasgow—obviously you have the competition from the X24, X26, X27, etc. Obviously we're somewhat bounded by capacity from Queen Street High Level, but I can imagine running non-stop to Fife, then terminating in Dundee.

 

[backontrack]

I've always wondered if there's a market for more direct rail connections from Fife to Glasgow—obviously you have the competition from the X24, X26, X27, etc. Obviously we're somewhat bounded by capacity from Queen Street High Level, but I can imagine running non-stop to Fife, then terminating in Dundee.

I think that a new high-speed Edinburgh-Perth line via Kinross would help with that. Think about it. You'd have two or three stops:

Inverkeithing
Halbeath
Kinross
Perth

There are three more towns on the route - namely Kelty, Milnathort and Bridge of Earn - but I'm going to cast those aside for a moment.

If we're to get 1tp2h from Edinburgh to Inverness, then, once we have this line, they should quite clearly use it. I don't know what would happen to the Dundee/Aberdeen trains, but I'd be looking to divide them in two - send some via Kinross/Perth and some via Kirkcaldy. Then you have Levenmouth and possibly St Andrews to add to the mix. I would divert the hourly Dundee stopper into St Andrews - if possible, then it would run there, then reverse and continue to Dundee by some kind of routing easement, but I think that's unlikely. If Perth trains were to go via Kinross, then that would release much-needed paths on the Fife Coastal Line - paths perfect for the Levenmouth trains.

But then Dundee loses out on an hourly train to Edinburgh, doesn't it? Well, it doesn't really. That train could travel via Kinross - particularly easily if the Kinross line ended at a point between Perth and Dundee. By making Edinburgh to Dundee trains enter Dundee from Invergowrie, you can increase the amount of services to a station at Dundee West/Ninewells, or to Dundee Airport. These are stopping services, after all.

But Kirkcaldy, Markinch, Cupar and Leuchars lose a key service too, don't they? Well, not actually, because that's the St Andrews service. But these towns all lose half of their trains to Dundee, because those will travel via Kinross. There's not an easy problem to fix, unless you can somehow make Edinburgh-Ladybank-Perth trains divide at Ladybank. Which reminds me...

The line between Ladybank and Perth is the main problem here. You can probably find a few paths between Ladybank/Kirkcaldy and Inverkeithing, but at the Forth Bridge everything will go haywire. The only way to solve it is to move some other paths around to a different destination. Glasgow, perhaps?

Obviously the Dalmeny Curve is out of the question, since that's on the other side of the Forth Bridge. But why not use the Longannet Line? Of course, it would need electrification, but I daresay that enough people would travel from Cowdenbeath, Dunfermline, Kinross, Inverkeithing, Glenrothes, Leven, Methill, Buckhaven, St. Andrews, Leuchars, Cupar and Dundee to Glasgow.

So some paths would be diverted down the Longannet Line to Stirling and down that way. You could run 1tp2h from Levenmouth to Glasgow, 1tp2h from St Andrews to Glasgow, you could run from Dundee to Halbeath, then to Dunfermline and Glasgow, you might even be able to find a few paths from Kirkcaldy! It would be hard, but not impossible. This should free up an hourly Perth-Ladybank-Edinburgh train, and perhaps some through trains from Dundee as well as St. Andrews. And then you could reopen railway stations on the Ladybank line - Newburgh, Abernethy and Bridge of Earn would all see railways once again, and you'd be able to stop there because these would be stoppers, not Inverness trains.

The one problem identified by Altnabreac that Levenmouth has is the fact that there aren't any services that can easily be extended today to from the new service. But, by moving some Fife trains to Glasgow, a place of equal size and importance, paths for these services can be created.

The intermediate stops of my proposed Inverkeithing-Kinross-Perth line are important as well. I'd call all trains at Halbeath, and most at a Kinross Parkway station. Halbeath would be an important station; not only would it serve Dunfermline, the M90 and Cowdenbeath, and the Park & Ride facilities, but it would also be an important interchange station connecting the whole of Fife together. All trains down the Longannet Line would call here, so this would be the interchange point for Edinburgh from those services. Trains to Inverness/Aberdeen would run Edinburgh > Haymarket > Edinburgh Gateway > Inverkeithing > Halbeath > Kinross Parkway > Perth/Dundee and onwards from there; the stops at Inverkeithing and Kinross would alternate. 'Stopping' services, such as the Dundee terminators replaced by St. Andrews services, would call at all of these stops, and also Bridge of Earn or something; I'm not entirely sure where. These could even run via Dunfermline, giving Dunfermline Town a direct service to Dundee. If Rosyth ever got a passenger ferry again then that would serve it too. To be honest, I'm not entirely sure of this service's stopping pattern - or indeed any of this - but I'm sure it could be worked out. The Cowdenbeath terminators would be extended, via a new branch line, to terminate at Kelty.

Does any of that make any sense? I hope it does...

 

[47271]

All good interesting stuff, but of all of it, is it not the case that partial doubling and station reopening on the Ladybank-Hilton Jn line is already in the pipeline with Network Rail? Speaking as someone who spends a lot of time - and I mean a lot of time - trundling between Perth and Edinburgh, it can't come a moment too soon for me.

Reinstatement - high speed or otherwise - of the Glenfarg route was discussed extensively in this thread earlier in the year, hidden in what appeared to be a topic covering the schedule of the Highland Chieftain:

http://www.railforums.co.uk/showthread.php?t=124277

Personally I think any Glenfarg route to be a long way off, and it would need to serve Kelty at least. At the risk of being boring, I'll repeat my suggestion that they look at going to Kelty and Kinross first, the population and regeneration needs pretty much stack up, Borders project style, thus avoiding the horrors presented by the M90 - and topography - between Kinross and Bridge of Earn.

I like the idea upthread of combining services to Levenmouth with a Kincardine reopening. High speed it would not be, but with a slick interchange at Dunfermline it could open up all sorts of opportunities without overtaxing the Forth Bridge, or the need for awkward reversing manoeuvres.

 

[backontrack]

All good interesting stuff, but of all of it, is it not the case that partial doubling and station reopening on the Ladybank-Hilton Jn line is already in the pipeline with Network Rail? Speaking as someone who spends a lot of time - and I mean a lot of time - trundling between Perth and Edinburgh, it can't come a moment too soon for me.

Reinstatement - high speed or otherwise - of the Glenfarg route was discussed extensively in this thread earlier in the year, hidden in what appeared to be a topic covering the schedule of the Highland Chieftain:

http://www.railforums.co.uk/showthread.php?t=124277

Personally I think any Glenfarg route to be a long way off, and it would need to serve Kelty at least. At the risk of being boring, I'll repeat my suggestion that they look at going to Kelty and Kinross first, the population and regeneration needs pretty much stack up, Borders project style, thus avoiding the horrors presented by the M90 - and topography - between Kinross and Bridge of Earn.

I like the idea upthread of combining services to Levenmouth with a Kincardine reopening. High speed it would not be, but with a slick interchange at Dunfermline it could open up all sorts of opportunities without overtaxing the Forth Bridge, or the need for awkward reversing manoeuvres.

The combined services idea of mine would be enhanced by a good connection at Halbeath, like you say. I'm glad you like it. I think that these services themselves wouldn't be high speed, but they'd connect with a high speed route. I'll also repeat myself in saying that:

a). Most trains on the Glenfarg route would call at Kinross (as I've said, three-quarters of the Inverness trains and a quarter of the Aberdeen trains). I'll repeat that here. Most trains from Inverness to Edinburgh would call at Kinross; only a couple (i.e Highland Chieftain) would run non-stop from Perth to Halbeath. Half of the Aberdeen services would be rerouted via the Glenfarg line, and half of these would also call at Kinross, particularly in the peaks.
b). Kelty, Kinross, Milnathort and Bridge of Earn would be served by the rerouted stopping services to Dundee. They'd all be on the high speed line, but would only be served by certain services

It's all in my above post, you just have to look for it.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
I think it's a truism that, the more effort you put into a post, the fewer replies you get...

 

[Altnabreac]

I think it's a truism that, the more effort you put into a post, the fewer replies you get...

I'll give you my thoughts...

I think that a new high-speed Edinburgh-Perth line via Kinross would help with that. Think about it. You'd have two or three stops:

Inverkeithing
Halbeath
Kinross
Perth

There are three more towns on the route - namely Kelty, Milnathort and Bridge of Earn - but I'm going to cast those aside for a moment.

I agree that a new fast line to Perth would be very useful in reducing journey times north of the central belt. It would probably branch off north of Inverkeithing and the logical stop locations would be Halbeath, Kinross and possibly Kelty rejoining the current network just before Bridge of Earn.

My view would be that you would need a completely new alignment for virtually the whole route with a new tunneled route west of Glenfarg.

I also think that it would be worth extending across the Tay to the St Madoes area thus providing direct services to Dundee without going via Perth.

If we're to get 1tp2h from Edinburgh to Inverness, then, once we have this line, they should quite clearly use it. I don't know what would happen to the Dundee/Aberdeen trains, but I'd be looking to divide them in two - send some via Kinross/Perth and some via Kirkcaldy.

Clearly you'd want to send nearly all Aberdeen and Inverness to Edinburgh trains via the new route (cross border services might still go via Fife to pick up intermediate business, especially at Leuchars). Once an Edinburgh - Glasgow High Speed line opened I think it would also prove possible to send the Glasgow trains this way with a relatively small new connection SE of Edinburgh Airport.

Kirkcaldy and Stirling routes would become purely for Edinburgh / Glasgow - Dundee semi fast services.

Then you have Levenmouth and possibly St Andrews to add to the mix. I would divert the hourly Dundee stopper into St Andrews - if possible, then it would run there, then reverse and continue to Dundee by some kind of routing easement, but I think that's unlikely. If Perth trains were to go via Kinross, then that would release much-needed paths on the Fife Coastal Line - paths perfect for the Levenmouth trains.

But then Dundee loses out on an hourly train to Edinburgh, doesn't it? Well, it doesn't really. That train could travel via Kinross - particularly easily if the Kinross line ended at a point between Perth and Dundee. By making Edinburgh to Dundee trains enter Dundee from Invergowrie, you can increase the amount of services to a station at Dundee West/Ninewells, or to Dundee Airport. These are stopping services, after all.

But Kirkcaldy, Markinch, Cupar and Leuchars lose a key service too, don't they? Well, not actually, because that's the St Andrews service. But these towns all lose half of their trains to Dundee, because those will travel via Kinross. There's not an easy problem to fix, unless you can somehow make Edinburgh-Ladybank-Perth trains divide at Ladybank.

I'm entirely unconvinced by the business case for St Andrews reopening. I don't see it as a useful priority at all.

Which reminds me...

The line between Ladybank and Perth is the main problem here. You can probably find a few paths between Ladybank/Kirkcaldy and Inverkeithing, but at the Forth Bridge everything will go haywire. The only way to solve it is to move some other paths around to a different destination. Glasgow, perhaps?

Once a new Perth direct line opens what purpose does Ladybank - Perth serve?

A Perth - Edinburgh semi fast could provide stops at Bridge of Earn, Kinross (and even possibly Kelty) on top of the fast Aberdeen and Inverness services.

Ladybank would only be useful as a diversionary route or to serve a potential Newburgh station. I'd maybe keep it open for freight / diversions but not schedule any regular services over it.

You probably would want to divert the Perth semi fast back from Ladybank to Dundee to provide the current level of semi fast Edinburgh - Markinch services though. Would use the same path as Cross Country services use in the hours they don't run.
Alternatively if you could make a case for St Andrews the path of the existing Perth semi fast could be extended from Ladybank north to St Andrews instead.

Obviously the Dalmeny Curve is out of the question, since that's on the other side of the Forth Bridge. But why not use the Longannet Line? Of course, it would need electrification, but I daresay that enough people would travel from Cowdenbeath, Dunfermline, Kinross, Inverkeithing, Glenrothes, Leven, Methill, Buckhaven, St. Andrews, Leuchars, Cupar and Dundee to Glasgow.

So some paths would be diverted down the Longannet Line to Stirling and down that way. You could run 1tp2h from Levenmouth to Glasgow, 1tp2h from St Andrews to Glasgow, you could run from Dundee to Halbeath, then to Dunfermline and Glasgow, you might even be able to find a few paths from Kirkcaldy! It would be hard, but not impossible. This should free up an hourly Perth-Ladybank-Edinburgh train, and perhaps some through trains from Dundee as well as St. Andrews. And then you could reopen railway stations on the Ladybank line - Newburgh, Abernethy and Bridge of Earn would all see railways once again, and you'd be able to stop there because these would be stoppers, not Inverness trains.

The best business case for the Longannet line is likely to be with services to Edinburgh, either via a reversal in Dunfermline or a new Charlestown chord. Failing that if you decided to run it as a Glasgow - Fife service I'd expect a better business case would be to run via Thornton to Kirkcaldy.

The one problem identified by Altnabreac that Levenmouth has is the fact that there aren't any services that can easily be extended today to from the new service. But, by moving some Fife trains to Glasgow, a place of equal size and importance, paths for these services can be created.

My understanding is that it is relatively easy to serve Levenmouth by extending existing Fife Circle services. Preferably the Fife Coastal service to allow a Levenmouth - Kirkcaldy service as well as an Edinburgh service.

You could slightly speed these services up by dropping some of the Dalmeny / North Queensferry stops which could be picked up by a new Longannet service.

Whichever option you choose a direct service to Edinburgh will be essential to making a positive business case for Levenmouth reopening. A slow train to Glasgow via Alloa will not generate commuting demand and changing for Edinburgh will badly affect any business case.

The intermediate stops of my proposed Inverkeithing-Kinross-Perth line are important as well. I'd call all trains at Halbeath, and most at a Kinross Parkway station. Halbeath would be an important station; not only would it serve Dunfermline, the M90 and Cowdenbeath, and the Park & Ride facilities, but it would also be an important interchange station connecting the whole of Fife together. All trains down the Longannet Line would call here, so this would be the interchange point for Edinburgh from those services. Trains to Inverness/Aberdeen would run Edinburgh > Haymarket > Edinburgh Gateway > Inverkeithing > Halbeath > Kinross Parkway > Perth/Dundee and onwards from there; the stops at Inverkeithing and Kinross would alternate. 'Stopping' services, such as the Dundee terminators replaced by St. Andrews services, would call at all of these stops, and also Bridge of Earn or something; I'm not entirely sure where. These could even run via Dunfermline, giving Dunfermline Town a direct service to Dundee. If Rosyth ever got a passenger ferry again then that would serve it too. To be honest, I'm not entirely sure of this service's stopping pattern - or indeed any of this - but I'm sure it could be worked out. The Cowdenbeath terminators would be extended, via a new branch line, to terminate at Kelty.

Does any of that make any sense? I hope it does...

I think you'd probably want to avoid Inverness and Aberdeen services stopping anywhere between Dundee/Perth and Edinburgh Gateway.

An hourly semi fast Perth - Bridge of Earn - Kinross - (Kelty) - Halbeath - Inverkeithing - Edinburgh Gateway - Haymarket - Edinburgh Waverley service would pick up the intermediate stops.

You might have some occasional stops at Halbeath for the long distance services but mainly your business case would be made by trying to reduce Intercity journey times as much as possible.

At the end of all that the capacity pinch point is probably going to be Inverkeithing - Forth Bridge - Haymarket. You would be looking at something like 12tph crossing the Forth Bridge:

Perth Direct Line
1tph Inverness - Perth - Edinburgh/Glasgow.
1tph Aberdeen - Dundee - Edinburgh.
1tph Aberdeen - Dundee - Glasgow.
1tph Perth - Kinross - Halbeath - Edinburgh.

Fife Coastal
0-1tph Aberdeen - Dundee - Kirkcaldy - Edinburgh - Newcastle - (Cross Country)
1-2tph Dundee - Kirkcaldy - Edinburgh
2tph Levenmouth - Kirkcaldy - Edinburgh

Rosyth
2tph Kirkcaldy - Glenrothes with Thornton - Dunfermline - Edinburgh
2tph Stirling - Kincardine - (Dunfermline?) - Edinburgh

That's an increase on the 8tph off peak service currently but fairly similar to the current peak service so should be possible to make it work. Scotland Route Study also suggests 11tph over the Forth Bridge so it's not hugely different to that.

You might want a reinstated north facing bay at Kirkcaldy to enable the Dunfermline trains to terminate there without occupying a through platform.

 

[clc]

Labour manifesto supports reopening of Levenmouth: http://www.fifetoday.co.uk/news/loc...r-levenmouth-rail-link-in-manifesto-1-4114016

 

[Altnabreac]

Labour manifesto supports reopening of Levenmouth: http://www.fifetoday.co.uk/news/loc...r-levenmouth-rail-link-in-manifesto-1-4114016

Positive quotes in there from all 4 candidates. This is the sort of thing Levenmouth needs to move up the political agenda.

Now of course it's unlikely Scottish Labour are going to be in power but I'd now expect partial Scottish Government funding to be forthcoming if Fife Council take the project through a full STAG appraisal and it has a positive business case.

Two variables to watch are probably the ongoing City Deal process and the Council elections next year where it may become an issue.

Certainly looks positive news for the reopening. I'd say based on election manifestos the 4 rail reopenings that might emerge following this election are:
Levenmouth
Tweedbank - Hawick
Alloa - Dunfermline
Dyce - Ellon

Probably in that order of likelihood. None of the other schemes seem to have the requisite local government support or well developed business cases to proceed at present.

 

[clc]

So the Scottish Government spent £850m on a new mega-hospital in the Govan area of Glasgow. Services were transferred to the new QE Hospital (previously Southern General) from other hospitals in the city which had good public transport links including The Victoria which was close to a heavy rail station and The Western which had a subway station nearby.

The new hospital has 10,000 employees and 725,000 patients per year plus their visitors. However, unlike the hospitals which closed the new facility has no rail links despite being within spitting distance of a freight line which connects to the main Paisley-Glasgow line.

So, what would be the best realistic solution for connecting the hospital to the rail network?

The STPR Final Report suggested a light rail link could serve the hospital:
"A.247 A Metro/Light Rapid Transit system could include new stations, improved service frequencies and improved access to and across central Glasgow. The system would be rolled out on a phased basis. The operational concept for the system using proven technology could be expanded to include a new crossing of the Clyde to around the Southern General Hospital and other lines to link areas not currently served by the heavy rail network."
http://www.transport.gov.scot/report/j11260a-05.htm#a24

There was also a heavy rail option considered during the STPR:-

""New River Clyde Rail Crossing and Glasgow Outer-Suburban Circular Rail Service
This intervention would involve a number of new and upgraded rail links in Glasgow. A new crossing of the River Clyde would be provided, connecting the line to and from Paisley Gilmour Street with the line between Jordanhill and Yoker. A new chord would be provided at Anniesland to connect the North Electric Line with the branch from Maryhill. A number of lines and junctions would be upgraded, such as the City Union Line and Bellgrove Junction. Starting at Maryhill and working clockwise, a new outer-suburban service would use the existing Maryhill Branch to Cowlairs, the City Union to Shields and the new link under the Clyde to Jordanhill and onwards to Maryhill. Services would also operate from west or south of Paisley (e.g. Gourock or Ayr), across the river to communities such as Airdrie, Dalmuir and Milngavie."
Glasgow Intervention 175:
http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk...ports/uploaded_reports/j10194a/j10194a-01.pdf

I would have thought if a tunnel was to be built under the Clyde it would have a better business case if it was heavy rail gauge. You could then connect the hospital to Renfrewshire, Ayrshire, Inverclyde, PGS/airport in one direction and to one or both of the city centre termini and Edinburgh via Airdrie/Bathgate in the other direction. There is an aspiration to increase frequency on the A2B line to 6tph but demand on the western sections (City centre to Helensburgh/Milngavie) wouldn't warrant 6tph so running the extra 2tph fasts through the tunnel to Ayrshire or Inverclyde would be a logical move.

And there'd be nothing to prevent the tunnel being shared by tram-trains if a light rail route could be developed north of the river.

 

[och aye]

Positive quotes in there from all 4 candidates. This is the sort of thing Levenmouth needs to move up the political agenda.

Now of course it's unlikely Scottish Labour are going to be in power but I'd now expect partial Scottish Government funding to be forthcoming if Fife Council take the project through a full STAG appraisal and it has a positive business case.

Two variables to watch are probably the ongoing City Deal process and the Council elections next year where it may become an issue.

Certainly looks positive news for the reopening. I'd say based on election manifestos the 4 rail reopenings that might emerge following this election are:
Levenmouth
Tweedbank - Hawick
Alloa - Dunfermline
Dyce - Ellon

Probably in that order of likelihood. None of the other schemes seem to have the requisite local government support or well developed business cases to proceed at present.

I'd be amazed if Levenmouth doesn't get the go-ahead in the duration of the next parliament.

I think Hawick and Dunfermline will be studied.

Ellon I don't think will happen (although I'd love to be proved wrong!). It's a part of the country (much like the Borders) which should really never had it's rail links taken away!

 

[Altnabreac]

I'd be amazed if Levenmouth doesn't get the go-ahead in the duration of the next parliament.

I think Hawick and Dunfermline will be studied.

Ellon I don't think will happen (although I'd love to be proved wrong!). It's a part of the country (much like the Borders) which should really never had it's rail links taken away!

Levenmouth becoming part of a marginal constituency that is the seat of the Lib Dem leader (North East Fife) and the SNP being a minority government who may need to cut deals with smaller parties to pass future budgets have probably done the Levenmouth line's chances of progressing during this parliament no harm.

 

[clc]

Levenmouth becoming part of a marginal constituency that is the seat of the Lib Dem leader (North East Fife) and the SNP being a minority government who may need to cut deals with smaller parties to pass future budgets have probably done the Levenmouth line's chances of progressing during this parliament no harm.

It's also in the Greens' manifesto.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

It did cross my mind to wonder whether the SNP's failure to secure an overall majority might have benefits for rail generally (not just in Levenmouth), if it puts the SNP under more pressure to consider sustainable transport investment, as opposed to road-building?

(No idea how plausible that line of thought is, as I don't know enough about transport politics in Scotland, but the thought definitely crossed my mind).

 

[clc]

It did cross my mind to wonder whether the SNP's failure to secure an overall majority might have benefits for rail generally (not just in Levenmouth), if it puts the SNP under more pressure to consider sustainable transport investment, as opposed to road-building?

(No idea how plausible that line of thought is, as I don't know enough about transport politics in Scotland, but the thought definitely crossed my mind).

It's hard to see how the SNP could compromise on it's £3 billion A9 dualling programme. Shifting resources from roadbuilding to rail infrastructure seems unlikely.

 

[Altnabreac]

It did cross my mind to wonder whether the SNP's failure to secure an overall majority might have benefits for rail generally (not just in Levenmouth), if it puts the SNP under more pressure to consider sustainable transport investment, as opposed to road-building?

(No idea how plausible that line of thought is, as I don't know enough about transport politics in Scotland, but the thought definitely crossed my mind).

I think it doesn't do any harm to rail and on smaller scale projects like Levenmouth will actively help.

However the detailed results for the SNP show some weaknesses in their former heartlands of NE Scotland and Perthshire so I doubt they'll be willing to ditch major road schemes like the A96.

The other weakness it exposed for the SNP was the Borders and Dumfries areas. Whether this will lead to more investment in schemes like Hawick or to a view that these areas are never going to vote SNP so not worth spending lots of money there will be an interesting thing to watch. My view is they will continue spending in these areas so it could be good news for Hawick reopening.

 

[backontrack]

If the SNP want things to improve in Perthshire, then why not look at fully doubling the line to Inverness? Or looking to reopen the line to Banchory in order to reclaim that seat?

 

[NotATrainspott]

The electoral system in Scotland means that it's not politically worthwhile to concentrate spending in marginal constituencies. The small change in votes caused by such an intervention that could change a constituency isn't enough to affect the overall result due to the additional members.

If the SNP want things to improve in Perthshire, then why not look at fully doubling the line to Inverness? Or looking to reopen the line to Banchory in order to reclaim that seat?

A consistent 1tph alternating between Edinburgh and Glasgow, plus connections at Perth for the other city, should be perfectly enough for the long term. That can be achieved with relatively little doubling. At that point, it would be better to spend money dualling the A9, and this is pretty much what is already planned.

I don't think there will be any major changes in investment planning. We don't know what the dynamic will be when trying to get votes in Parliament but given that the SNP are only two votes short of a majority, the likelihood of specific deals being required is relatively small. In various areas the SNP policy platform is not too dissimilar to some other parties, so unless the others decide to become the Republicans and oppose all government policy regardless of merit, they will get votes for effectively all their manifesto. Remember, they did get the lion's share of the seats because they got the lion's share of the popular vote. The Tories might have doubled their number of seats but that wouldn't be hard given their low base to begin with.

 

[me123]

It's hard to see how the SNP could compromise on it's £3 billion A9 dualling programme. Shifting resources from roadbuilding to rail infrastructure seems unlikely.

The A9 dualling will go ahead, and rightly so. It's an essential piece of infrastructure, and it would be political suicide to axe this scheme. The SNP would risk losing a huge swathe of support in the Highlands. It is also a scheme that will deliver huge economic benefit to the North of the country.
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The electoral system in Scotland means that it's not politically worthwhile to concentrate spending in marginal constituencies. The small change in votes caused by such an intervention that could change a constituency isn't enough to affect the overall result due to the additional members.

It will however be a key SNP target at all levels which, whilst perhaps not a sole motivation for building to Levenmouth, will certainly swing the balance. The SNP will also be looking to the local council elections next year, and much further down the line to the Westminster and next Scottish Parliament elections, where they must see an opportunity to swing the seat. That all must cross their mind when they think of Levenmouth, aside from the obvious benefits of the scheme otherwise.

With the SNP having potential for marginal political gain, and with support from the Greens and Lib Dems (perhaps with a deal to support an SNP policy), there's certainly a good likelihood of this happening. The newly elected Glenrothes and Mid-Fife MSP Jenny Gilruth (SNP) also supported the scheme in her victory speech, so whilst it isn't an SNP manifesto commitment per se, I think it's very likely to happen.

 

[clc]

The A9 dualling will go ahead, and rightly so. It's an essential piece of infrastructure, and it would be political suicide to axe this scheme. The SNP would risk losing a huge swathe of support in the Highlands. It is also a scheme that will deliver huge economic benefit to the North of the country...
.

I agree it definitely should and will go ahead. I was just making the point that any additional resources for new rail lines are unlikely to come from the roadbuilding budget.

 

[Harbornite]

It would be nice to see the lines from Edinburgh to Peebles and Carstairs via Leadburn reopened, but it would be hard to make a decent business case. I'd say that Peebles would be the more viable option.

 

[backontrack]

It would be nice to see the lines from Edinburgh to Peebles and Carstairs via Leadburn reopened, but it would be hard to make a decent business case. I'd say that Peebles would be the more viable option.

Agreed. It looks like there's a healthy business case for serving Bonnyrigg and Penicuik, perhaps Peebles could be served too at some point, and perhaps even Innerleithen! It would likely be done in stages; Penicuik first, then the line south.

 

[Philip Phlopp]

Agreed. It looks like there's a healthy business case for serving Bonnyrigg and Penicuik, perhaps Peebles could be served too at some point, and perhaps even Innerleithen! It would likely be done in stages; Penicuik first, then the line south.

The problem is doing anything in stages on the railway is inherently more expensive, as it means modifying an operational signalling system, moving plant around an operational railway, and then modifying an existing timetable possibly with other requirements to enable that to happen.

There's also the cost involved in building a new team to undertake Phase 2, Phase 3 and so on, eliminating any synergies in building more route mileage at the same time and so on, plus all the legal costs involved in additional Acts of Parliament/Scottish Parliament and so on.

It probably works out for 50% more cost, you'll get 100% more route miles, if you can do everything at the same time.

 

[backontrack]

The problem is doing anything in stages on the railway is inherently more expensive, as it means modifying an operational signalling system, moving plant around an operational railway, and then modifying an existing timetable possibly with other requirements to enable that to happen.

There's also the cost involved in building a new team to undertake Phase 2, Phase 3 and so on, eliminating any synergies in building more route mileage at the same time and so on, plus all the legal costs involved in additional Acts of Parliament/Scottish Parliament and so on.

It probably works out for 50% more cost, you'll get 100% more route miles, if you can do everything at the same time.

Ah, I see. Thanks.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Speaking of extensions: Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire may be more in line for the Borders extension to Hawick given the new-found prominence of the Scottish conservatives. Likewise any extension to Carlisle, now that Dumfriesshire has gone Tory.

(Not that I think the latter is likely, but it's more than it was.)

That Carlisle is a Tory marginal would certainly help getting support on the English side...

 

[Altnabreac]

Speaking of extensions: Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire may be more in line for the Borders extension to Hawick given the new-found prominence of the Scottish conservatives. Likewise any extension to Carlisle, now that Dumfriesshire has gone Tory.

(Not that I think the latter is likely, but it's more than it was.)

That Carlisle is a Tory marginal would certainly help getting support on the English side...

There is only one problem with Hawick - Carlisle.

Lets assume that the potential swayed voters are those who might use the service. Given Hawick - Carlisle will be used by almost nobody then it will generate almost no political benefit as hardly anyone will use it.

Now this isn't quite true as voters like to see investment in "their area" even if they don't use said facilities. Research shows investment in schools in an area is popular even with those who don't have kids etc.

But investing in a railway that turns out to be virtually empty and loss making may actually be counterproductive. I suspect we'll see a STAG appraisal funded which will identify strong potential for Tweedbank - Hawick and point out the fundamental flaws with Hawick - Carlisle business case.

 

[Mordac]

There is only one problem with Hawick - Carlisle.

Lets assume that the potential swayed voters are those who might use the service. Given Hawick - Carlisle will be used by almost nobody then it will generate almost no political benefit as hardly anyone will use it.

Now this isn't quite true as voters like to see investment in "their area" even if they don't use said facilities. Research shows investment in schools in an area is popular even with those who don't have kids etc.

But investing in a railway that turns out to be virtually empty and loss making may actually be counterproductive. I suspect we'll see a STAG appraisal funded which will identify strong potential for Tweedbank - Hawick and point out the fundamental flaws with Hawick - Carlisle business case.

While of course this doesn't win any votes, the most important benefit to Hawick-Carlisle that I can see is taking freight out of the WCML and adding an alternate route to Edinburgh. Would have been very useful during #Lamington.