I can't see the effect of HS2 on North West Crosscountry services being that catastrophic. As mentioned above there'll still be intermediate markets to serve that are not covered by HS2, many passengers prefer direct trains and assuming that there is little to no chance of the Crosscountry franchise being disbanded entirely post-HS2 then the operator is still going to want to attract revenue from key end-to-end markets such as Manchester to Bristol.
HS2 will not call at stations between Manchester and Birmingham, so there will be a need for services between those stations.
If we assume that HS2 between Manchester and Birmingham in 2033 that's 18 years of growth 56% to 140% more passengers based on 2.5% to 5% growth poet year).
If we assume that passenger numbers fall by 50% upon opening that gets us to 77% and 120% of where we are now. If it falls by 70% them we could be looking at 47% and 66% of where we are now. Either way it would mean that the existing trains would probably be a reasonable capacity for most of those options.
I doubt that it would fall by much more than 70%, as although there wouldn't be the long distance journeys there would be a number of people using XC services to get to HS2 services which would inflate numbers a bit.
That assumes 2.5 to 5% growth can be accommodated in the first place given the crowding levels of some of their trains I consider that unlikely - which means there is likely to be pent up demand. However I do agree demand is unlikely to be significantly affected by HS2 opening assuming, as was noted above, serving intermediate stations. This will not chnage with HS2 - indeed it may grow if some demand between major cities is diverted to HS2.
In my experience, 5 cars is normally fine for the Bournemouth end of the route, but these really get busy from Reading or sometimes Basingstoke.
In the long term, running 2 x 5 units together in the core section of the route, such as Birmingham to Reading would be great, and perhaps splitting the service somewhere so only one of the 5 car units goes on to serve Bournemouth.
This would allow you to use more units in the intense core, and possibly serve more destinations too.
Splitting trains is unlikely enmasse as it causes a performance risk if one portion doesn't arrive on time, however much I like the idea of serving different destinations beyond the core route with one train. As I said above I would like to see a third path per hour between Birmingham and Leeds / York.
The return of:
-Through trains from Scotland, down the West coast to the South East and South West England
- Sleeper services
- Services via Brum to London Paddington
- Hull, Liverpool, Blackpool, Swansea, Portsmouth, Poole etc to the long distance network
- Proper trains!
Agree with West Coast being served by Cross Country once again - all the way to Glasgow and Edinburgh but sadly probably a pipe dream.
Sleeper services very unlikely bordering on no chance due to high costs - another pipe dream unless Serco could run it without subsidy.
Paddington - no, however Heathrow via Western access maybe. I would prefer to see Gatwick Airport on the XC network ahead of Paddington.
Swansea might happen if the Welsh Assembly gets its way with a Welsh only franchise. Divert Cheltenham - Maestag services to Swansea and extend from Cheltenham to New Street and perhaps join to either New Street Nottingham (maybe Lincoln) or New Street to Leicester (maybe Cambridge) service.
Poole yes if they can be viably extended from Bournemouth.
Hull maybe as part of a 3rd path though the core routes (see above).
I cannot see any other destinations being viable (but see below)
Hourly service via Crewe rather than twice per hour via Macclesfield
Hmm - in my experience, changing in London for going from Bournemouth to the NE is not easy, as it means a trek across London between termini It's easier to change at Birmingham New Street.
Perhaps when East - West rail is open, this could be used to run through trains from Bournemouth to the NE.
Surprised you consider New Street an easy place to change.
This might warrant a 3rd Path from Reading to Stafford via East West Rail and Nuneaton so as not to reduce XC capacity at New Street. Perhaps this service (or a re-organisation of XC Reading services) could serve Blackpool / Liverpool and Portsmouth.
Are you sure there is much spare capacity on the SWT services south of Basingstoke???????????
I think that terminating all Cross Country services at Reading would be a non-starter since it would require people to make two additional train changes.
It costs far less for SWT to operate additional EMUs south of Basingstoke than for Cross Country to operate Voyagers beyond Basingstoke.
But now I've thought about the LSWML to West London or Wokingham etc. passengers.

This seems like a strong argument for Cross Country to continue to serve Bournemouth hourly so that it's still a single change a Reading.
Terminating all XC services at Reading or Basingstoke would probably not be viable because you would need extra terminating capacity at Reading and / or Basingstoke. It would require additional changes for certain journeys and it is likely a train service would still be needed between Basingstoke and Bournemouth that could could not then operate through to London as that route is near to or at capacity at certain times of the day.
It might not be what was intended but I assumed that's what SpacePhoenix meant, running them, as Kettledrum says, in pairs and splitting somewhere en route.
If the London-centric operators, with focused peak periods into the capital, are going for 9-car trains, then I can't see Crosscountry warranting longer than 7-car AT-300 units.
I know that some XC services operate in pairs are these pairs 2x 221s, 2x 220s or one of each? I would certainly order a train capable of being extended in future or operating in pairs like the 220s with new trains being ordered to cover gaps in diagrams eg two single Voyager diagrams beome a pair with a new train covering the other diagram.
I posted that idea a couple of years ago with the services continuing to Paddington to connect with HS2 at Old Oak Common. I didn't get any positive responses from this forum back then. The recent route studies suggest the service running in addition to the Cross Country services rather than instead of and also route the service via Heathrow. That service pattern requires a grade seperated junction at Basingstoke.
I can see a grade separated junction happening at both Basingstoke and Woking (as discussed in the recent SW RUS), but I can't see XC serving Paddington never mind Old Oak Common. Any demand between Basingstoke and Old Oak Common for HS2 destinations is more likely to be covered by Great Western providing capacity into Paddington. Oxford northwards I would say its quicker to reach HS2 at Birmingham than at Old Oak Common via Reading.
That's not an issue in the slightest. The issue is that catering isn't seen by train companies these days as adding value, and increasing the staff presence, customer service etc, it's seen as a way to try and make money (or at least recoup losses) and therefore only the most "profitable" bits of the network get catering services.
XC might do it if they could guarantee to make money and take money off station outlets - remember XC don't run any stations but I very much doubt the numbers stack up.