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Hull station - low passenger growth

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Tetchytyke

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Unfortunately I think this is very out of touch. It is slightly further than most people think it is but I don't have any geographical misconceptions about the area, I know that Manchester to Leeds is a shorter journey and I'm still confident that charging £19.80 for that is reducing the opportunities for growth.

Well of course you'd have more growth if you charged 2p a ticket between Leeds and Hull, but that's not the same thing as arguing that the tickets are "overpriced" for the length of journey. FWIW the Hull-Leeds CDR could do with being a couple of quid cheaper, but that'd be about it really, and I'm not convinced that £2 is going to be enough to get people out of their cars.
 
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IanXC

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Is that a relatively new phenomena (in which case the overcrowded services should have been reflected in increased passenger numbers) or a long term thing (which the TOC hasn’t addressed, despite the overall increase in DMU carriages at Northern)?

Hull has seemed to get a fairly good quality allocation of units from Northern (for all the “grass is always greener in PTEs” stuff that we see on here, Hull has had 158s on the kind of routes that would be Pacer dominated elsewhere under Northern), but it may be that they’ve not increased the quantity of resources to cope with the crowding that you refer to (?). We’ve certainly seen more DMUs thrown at Manchester/ Leeds to cope with increased demand there (but I don’t know about Hull).

So these are the figures I was referring to

Approximately
75% of seats are taken on the Hull-Scarborough line throughout the peak period and loadings
can be up to 145% on the busiest services between Beverley, Cottingham and Hull in the peak
period (see table 20.1, figures from the yorkshire and Humber regional planning assessment for
the railway, 2007).
Table 20.1: Train loadings in the morning peak, by line
Line Peak train loading % Number of trains
in peak period
Harrogate to Leeds 213 5
Calder Valley Line to Leeds 168 6
Scarborough to Hull 145 6
Airedale to Leeds 142 6
york to Leeds
(stopper not via Harrogate) 140 3
Wharfedale line to Leeds 139 6
Five towns to Leeds 133 3
Sheffield to Leeds
(Northern via Barnsley) 131 4

(Apologies for the poor formatting!)

I think my key observation is that most of those listed above have received extra capacity. One of the key problems is that the current timetable has the most attractive peak arrival being from Scarborough, meaning any extra capacity provided would not be required for most of its journey.

I agree, but I think Hull's relative isolation is as relevant for showing the low base in 2004 as it is for showing little growth in the 12 years since then.

I think, additionally, the issue for Hull is that the city's main commuter belt- North East Lincolnshire- is effectively not connected to it by rail, and hasn't been since the New Holland ferry closed in the 70s.

I'm not sure you could say Hull's "main" commuter belt is in Lincolnshire. Surely it's the East Riding?!

Interesting comparison to be made in population:

Beverley 29,000
Driffield 13,000
Bridlington 35,000

Skipton 14,000
Ilkley 14,000

Noe clearly Leeds is always going to be a bigger draw than Hull, the potential market is significant given that the journey time to Bridlington is almost identical as Skipton at 40 minutes.
 

Tetchytyke

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I'm not sure you could say Hull's "main" commuter belt is in Lincolnshire. Surely it's the East Riding?!

Interesting comparison to be made in population:

Beverley 29,000
Driffield 13,000
Bridlington 35,000

According to wikipedia Grimsby has a population of 88,000, Cleethorpes 39,000 and Scunthorpe 65,000, by way of comparison.

How many of those commute to Hull I obviously don't know, but that market not being open to rail will have an effect.
 

Greenback

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that market not being open to rail will have an effect.

Indeed it will. It's one of the geographical factors that work against Hull. The other main one being that it's never going to benefit from people wishing to connect there for other destinations, which is usually reflected in the usage stats in some way. Not that I'm a big fan of station usage figures at the best of times.
 

westv

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According to the Humber Data Observatory website the 2011 census shows that 0.90% of workers in the East Riding used the train to travel to work. This compares with 1.46% for Yorkshire and the Humber and 3.54% for the England.
 

IanXC

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According to wikipedia Grimsby has a population of 88,000, Cleethorpes 39,000 and Scunthorpe 65,000, by way of comparison.

Probably should have made.myself clearer that those were two separate comparisons I was making.

Since we seem to be having a North Bank vs South Bank discussion I'll raise you these... :P

East Riding of Yorkshire 337,000
North Lincolnshire 169,000
North East Lincolnshire 159,000
 
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