Hull station - low passenger growth

[HMS Ark Royal]

What is the price of car parking like in Hull centre?

Free if you want to park up outside my place

Is that last attempted inspection or last successful inspection?

Last attempted one

FTFY.

We are now enemies

 

[deltic]

I looked at the web site but failed to find the table. Do you have the link please?

see http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-c.../Cities-Outlook-2015-Change-in-jobs-04-13.pdf

 

[westv]

Leeds hasn't experienced a 96% increase and Penistone hasn't had a 50% increase. A few years ago, about 5 if I recall correctly, PTE issued tickets were included for the first time. All stations within PTE areas had a huge increae in official passenger numbers, just as London stations did when they started to include PAYG Oyster.

So the official figures for Leeds and Penistone are 96% and 50% higher respectively but the number of passengers aren't.

So what would be the real figure then?

 

[Tetchytyke]

At cheapest return from Hull to Leeds of £21.30 I don't think there's any doubt that it's been overpriced by TransPennine.

I disagree; I think that is good value for a journey which is 51 miles in each direction.

But I think your point brings up a wider issue: Hull is a long way from anywhere. It's 51 miles to Leeds, 48 miles to York, 40 miles to Doncaster. It doesn't really have the short-distance commuting that you'd see from Leeds or Sheffield. It's no wonder demand isn't that high for the trains, Hull is far more self-contained than most cities because of how isolated it is.

I think people forget that Leeds is marginally closer to Manchester than it is to Hull.

 

[Bertie the bus]

So what would be the real figure then?

Are you expecting an answer? I don’t know and I doubt anybody, including the ORR and DfT, does. All I know is that you can’t take the official figure today, compare it with one in the past and say passenger numbers have grown by x%. Additional ticket types have been added and the methodology has changed several times since these figures were first published.

 

[northwichcat]

I definitely feel Hull would benefit from the sparks effect.

Hull Trains are planning to replace the 180s with a greater number of bi-modes. If that goes ahead and then at a later date the line to Hull is wired I can't see passengers flocking to use the Hull to London service simply because the pantograph is up for the entire journey!

(Bi-mode is also planned for TPE services to Middlesbrough and Scarborough.)

 

[quantinghome]

Are you expecting an answer? I don’t know and I doubt anybody, including the ORR and DfT, does. All I know is that you can’t take the official figure today, compare it with one in the past and say passenger numbers have grown by x%. Additional ticket types have been added and the methodology has changed several times since these figures were first published.

Sure you can. If you look at the time series spreadsheet here http://orr.gov.uk/statistics/published-stats/station-usage-estimates you will see the growth has been consistent year-on-year for a long time. There may have been occasional steps in growth indicative of changes in methodology, but that doesn't explain the overall trend.

 

[Bertie the bus]

Did you even bother reading my post before replying to it? I didn't state or imply passenger numbers haven't increased I stated, correctly, that you can't state by exactly how much they have increased and the documents you have linked to actually state that caution is needed when comparing passenger numbers.

 

[northwichcat]

Leeds hasn't experienced a 96% increase and Penistone hasn't had a 50% increase. A few years ago, about 5 if I recall correctly, PTE issued tickets were included for the first time. All stations within PTE areas had a huge increae in official passenger numbers, just as London stations did when they started to include PAYG Oyster.

So the official figures for Leeds and Penistone are 96% and 50% higher respectively but the number of passengers aren't.

Yes PTE tickets are recorded differently but figures of over 96% growth since 2004/05 have been recorded outside PTE areas - look at Warrington Central*, Knutsford, Hartford, Widnes, etc.

* Some growth may have been passengers being recorded as using Central instead of Bank Quay but Bank Quay's latest figure is still higher than 04/05.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Yes PTE tickets are recorded differently but figures of over 96% growth since 2004/05 have been recorded outside PTE areas

I'm sure they have, especially at stations with a lower starting count, but that isn't the point. The point is that PTE tickets weren't counted before, but now they are, and that will obviously dramatically increase usage. Bear in mind that a lot of people in West Yorkshire will travel on Metrocards rather than point-to-point seasons; counting them is going to see huge changes on the numbers, to the extent that you can't compare like for like.

Leeds has definitely seen growth, but I would be very surprised if it was 96% (i.e. pretty much doubled).

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Yes PTE tickets are recorded differently but figures of over 96% growth since 2004/05 have been recorded outside PTE areas - look at Warrington Central*, Knutsford, Hartford, Widnes, etc.

* Some growth may have been passengers being recorded as using Central instead of Bank Quay but Bank Quay's latest figure is still higher than 04/05.

All that Bertie was saying was that the figures don't tell the whole story. Fare evasion has been cited as a factor of course, but I'd have thought that might be more of an issue at Penistone than it is at Hull- PNS has an hourly service to Sheffield and Huddersfield but those two are the only stations with barriers, any travel to Barnsley or Meadowhall is reliant on vigilant guards or infrequent revenue checks at the exits. Additionally Penistone is far more reliant on the railway than a lot of similar sized market towns- there's buses to Barnsley but these are slow and unreliable. There's also a lot of school traffic in both directions at Penistone, and schoolkids are notorious for fare dodging. The relative isolation of Hull is significant in explaining the relatively poor growth: like Norwich the city is cut off on three sides by the North Sea and on the fourth side by British Rail!

 

[Bertie the bus]

Yes PTE tickets are recorded differently but figures of over 96% growth since 2004/05 have been recorded outside PTE areas - look at Warrington Central*, Knutsford, Hartford, Widnes, etc.

* Some growth may have been passengers being recorded as using Central instead of Bank Quay but Bank Quay's latest figure is still higher than 04/05.

I’m sorry but you look at 2 figures for stations in the same town and one has a growth of 2.5% in 10 years and the other has a growth of over 300% and you don’t see anything suspicious at all and think that you can trust the figure's accuracy completely?

 

[northwichcat]

I’m sorry but you look at 2 figures for stations in the same town and one has a growth of 2.5% in 10 years and the other has a growth of over 300% and you don’t see anything suspicious at all and think that you can trust the figure's accuracy completely?

The note I added related to some people wrongly being recorded as Bank Quay passengers in the past now being recorded as Central passengers.

Although, slower growth at Bank Quay is expected due to Warrington being a loser of Virgin VHF (pre-VHF there were 2tph between Warrington and Crewe and post-VHF there was only 1tph.)

 

[westv]

Siemens in town
City of Culture 2017
In the Rough Guides top 10 of cities to visit in 2016
At 34.1% in the top 4 cities for job growth in 2015
Things are looking up

 

[quantinghome]

Did you even bother reading my post before replying to it? I didn't state or imply passenger numbers haven't increased I stated, correctly, that you can't state by exactly how much they have increased and the documents you have linked to actually state that caution is needed when comparing passenger numbers.

Hi Bertie, assuming this is a reply to my post, sorry if my response came across in the wrong way.

Clearly the statistics aren't going to be exact if there has been a change in methodology. Nevertheless, useful conclusions can still be drawn - there has clearly been strong year-on-year growth in Leeds, but there hasn't in Hull. I think this was the point the OP was trying to get across, and that's still a valid point even if the step in growth between 2007/08 - 2008/09 is excluded.

 

[tbtc]

There’s arguments for why passenger numbers in Hull have been low (historically) – given the geography/ social background etc – but some reasons why Hull could be a busier place for rail.

The train station is relatively close to the central shopping/ business area. It’s a pretty flat city, so easily accessible from the station.

There’s a fairly big/ modern shopping centre right next to the station, there’s buses there too – it’s only a short walk to a main hospital – there’s a lot on the station’s “doorstep”.

It’s not had the same degree of shift in demographics that some other coastal places have had (either becoming retirement towns or Benefits Street On Sea) – it’s still a fairly vibrant city – something that it possibly doesn’t get enough credit for. Whilst you can explain the decline of some isolated places on changing tourist patterns, this was never a big factor in Hull.

There’s three sports teams, thousands of students... you could argue that Hull’s “low base” in 2004 should make it easier to increase passenger numbers from. Yet it doesn’t seem to be working.

Other places have seen minimal increase in frequencies/ destinations yet passenger numbers that continue to rise – why not Hull? We can’t blame Beeching for the reason for the lack of growth since 2004 – the cuts to Hornsea were just as true in 2004. I’m sceptical about using fare evasion to justify low passenger numbers – surely it existed in 2004 too.

I think in the last 20 years or so rail has become more of a sensible choice for commuter/shopping/leisure flows into many of the major cities outside London. There are several reasons including increased traffic congestion, the regeneration of city centres which are most easily accessed by public transport, and the seeming inability of the deregulated bus system to increase its passenger numbers significantly. It can result in significant percentage increases in rail travel, although sometimes the base is low so the actual numbers may not be so impressive.

Traffic congestion is an important factor that I don’t think (?) anyone else has mentioned.

Rail seems to have done better-than-average at cities/ towns with congested roads (I wouldn’t even think of driving into central York/ Cambridge/ Oxford/ Chester), so I suppose the reverse is true and Hull (with its relatively fast dual carriageway from east to west) hasn’t had enough traffic jams to encourage/ force drivers onto trains?

if anyone wants to relive the good and the bad of what rail travel was like 10-20 years ago, I recommend a visit to Hull. The trains are infrequent, but also quiet and Hull station feels very spacious with none of the passenger scrums that you get at places like Leeds and Manchester Piccadilly.

Agreed.

I’m not knocking the place but the station does feel quite ‘90s – given the relative size of the station compared to the number of services – back in the days when you could have platforms at main stations unused for long periods – back in the days when everyone wasn’t so rushed.

However I would also point to a deterrent effect. Commuting into Hull from the Coast is, and has been for some years, capacity constrained, with a service having been in the Yorkshire and Humber top 10 (last figures I saw were something in excess of 140% to capacity, and continues to operate as 2 cars. Clearly you're not going to attract more passengers when they can see what their (expensive) experience is going to be like!

Is that a relatively new phenomena (in which case the overcrowded services should have been reflected in increased passenger numbers) or a long term thing (which the TOC hasn’t addressed, despite the overall increase in DMU carriages at Northern)?

Hull has seemed to get a fairly good quality allocation of units from Northern (for all the “grass is always greener in PTEs” stuff that we see on here, Hull has had 158s on the kind of routes that would be Pacer dominated elsewhere under Northern), but it may be that they’ve not increased the quantity of resources to cope with the crowding that you refer to (?). We’ve certainly seen more DMUs thrown at Manchester/ Leeds to cope with increased demand there (but I don’t know about Hull).

Besides the reasons quoted above Hull's economic performance is also a factor - out of the 64 cities tracked by the think tank Centre for Cities, Hull is 60th in job creation over the last ten years - Blackpool which is 62nd has also seen very poor rail performance

I think that this is a valid point – whilst Hull was never a “hotspot” it seems to have fallen further behind.

I notice that a day return between Hull and Cottingham (the next stop along) is over five pounds which is probably pricing them out of the local market.

As others have stated, the fare structure dosnt encourage people from places like Cottingham to use the train:

Anytime return = £5.80 for a 4 mile x 2 journey = 72p per mile

Compare that with:

Bridlington - Hull anytime return £14.80 31 mile x 2 = 23p mile
Leeds - Garforth anytime return £4.60 7.25 mile x 2 = 32p mile

Hull Megarider 7 day bus ticket = £10.50

So train travel doesnt offer good value for money in the Hull area

Have these Hull fares increased significantly above other tickets over the past decade though?

Or have they always appeared high (to those of use used to subsidised PTE fares), in which case they applied in 2004 too?

As jcollins points out, some non-PTE stations have punched above their weight in recent years.

Fares to and from Hull are quite high. Hull is in many ways at the end of a long branch line off the ECML from Doncaster and at approx £20 for a return on what many would see as a local journey from Doncaster to Hull. For almost the same price you can travel from Doncaster right across the Pennines to Manchester.

At cheapest return from Hull to Leeds of £21.30 I don't think there's any doubt that it's been overpriced by TransPennine.

I disagree; I think that is good value for a journey which is 51 miles in each direction.

I’m with Arctic Troll here - I think that the fares I’ve seen look reasonable enough given the distances involved. Whilst Doncaster to Hull may feel “a local journey”, it is almost as far as Doncaster to Manchester (in the forty five/ fifty mile bracket – depending on whether you are counting crow/ road/ rail routes), so the fares seem to reflect that.

Yes PTE tickets are recorded differently but figures of over 96% growth since 2004/05 have been recorded outside PTE areas - look at Warrington Central*, Knutsford, Hartford, Widnes, etc.

* Some growth may have been passengers being recorded as using Central instead of Bank Quay but Bank Quay's latest figure is still higher than 04/05.

Quibbling about Warrington Central/ Bank Quay aside, I think that this is a very important point.

Hull has never been in a PTE, so I don’t think that we can use the excuse that it’s not in one today for why it hasn’t had a 1%pa growth over the past decade. As you rightly say, some non-PTE stations have seen much better growth in that time.

Hull is a long way from anywhere. It's 51 miles to Leeds, 48 miles to York, 40 miles to Doncaster. It doesn't really have the short-distance commuting that you'd see from Leeds or Sheffield. It's no wonder demand isn't that high for the trains, Hull is far more self-contained than most cities because of how isolated it is

As noted Hull doesn't have a suburban rail network and probably isn't much of a destination for inward commuting anyway. The nearest major centre is Leeds, but Hull is probably too far away with the train service being infrequent and slow relative to driving, so outward commuting is probably not a huge number either. Because Hull is a city centre in its own right rather than just a suburb, there is likely to be less need to travel to somewhere like Leeds for shopping and leisure.

These factors probably explain (what in the absence of any figures I assume to be...) a fairly low rail trip rate in Hull relative to the population. And because the types of rail flow that have tended to increase in other cities aren't really significant in Hull they may also explaing the low rate of growth.

No disrespect to Hull and its people, but I think it suffers from having to compete with tourist attractions like York, and the shopping facilities are not able to compete with the likes of Leeds or Meadowhall / Sheffield when people choose to make shopping trips out of their home towns. Plus, the eastern suburbs lost all their stations when Marples/Beeching closed the lines to Withernsea & Hornsea

The relative isolation of Hull is significant in explaining the relatively poor growth: like Norwich the city is cut off on three sides by the North Sea and on the fourth side by British Rail!

Whilst I don’t disagree with your points, these were also true in 2004.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Whilst I don’t disagree with your points, these were also true in 2004.

I agree, but I think Hull's relative isolation is as relevant for showing the low base in 2004 as it is for showing little growth in the 12 years since then.

I think, additionally, the issue for Hull is that the city's main commuter belt- North East Lincolnshire- is effectively not connected to it by rail, and hasn't been since the New Holland ferry closed in the 70s.

 

[HMS Ark Royal]

The real reason Hull is isolated is because it keeps you lot safe from me

 

[DeeGee]

I agree, but I think Hull's relative isolation is as relevant for showing the low base in 2004 as it is for showing little growth in the 12 years since then.

I think, additionally, the issue for Hull is that the city's main commuter belt- North East Lincolnshire- is effectively not connected to it by rail, and hasn't been since the New Holland ferry closed in the 70s.

I would tend to agree. There's an employment triangle Scunthorpe - Hull - Greater Grimsby linked by road across the Humber. There is neither a compelling time nor cost argument in favour of rail travel between the North and South banks of the Humber. The international airport is faffy by rail, there's no link to the refineries at Killingholme or the container port at Immingham.

The Humber Flyer and Fastcat provide a more useful service between the two banks than rail. Shopping from Grimsby by rail? Meadowhall is closer in terms of time.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

I would tend to agree. There's an employment triangle Scunthorpe - Hull - Greater Grimsby linked by road across the Humber. There is neither a compelling time nor cost argument in favour of rail travel between the North and South banks of the Humber. The international airport is faffy by rail, there's no link to the refineries at Killingholme or the container port at Immingham.

The Humber Flyer and Fastcat provide a more useful service between the two banks than rail. Shopping from Grimsby by rail? Meadowhall is closer in terms of time.

Much like at Dornoch, it's a shame a rail deck wasn't insisted on for the Humber Bridge!

 

[Starmill]

I’m with Arctic Troll here - I think that the fares I’ve seen look reasonable enough given the distances involved. Whilst Doncaster to Hull may feel “a local journey”, it is almost as far as Doncaster to Manchester (in the forty five/ fifty mile bracket – depending on whether you are counting crow/ road/ rail routes), so the fares seem to reflect that.

Unfortunately I think this is very out of touch. It is slightly further than most people think it is but I don't have any geographical misconceptions about the area, I know that Manchester to Leeds is a shorter journey and I'm still confident that charging £19.80 for that is reducing the opportunities for growth.

It might be a little bit of a longer way but there are loads of fares where the price is less for a similar distance. I'm trying to think of a city-related comparison in an area where inter-city fares aren't charged for inter-regional links. Edinburgh to Perth is about 5 miles longer by rail and a very similar distance as the crow flies. Cheapest return is £16.90 - 20% less than Leeds to Hull. And before you say "there isn't enough capacity to reduce the Leeds <> Hull CDR" well if that's true, why are there so many £7-8 Advances? And for that matter why is there no Off-Peak Day Single, only an Anytime Day Single at 10 pence less than the return? This fares structure is inequitable and I don't think we can argue that's not the true. I think it's much past time we had a Super Off-Peak (Day) ticket trial for TransPennine's overpriced flows, but I digress.

The trouble is that there's nowhere in between and not really a cheaper alternative. Charging so much to link Hull with it's nearest economic companion (and then using a slightly longer distance than some people think it is to justify it) is one of the things that's holding it back. Additionally the service is currently pretty poor; 1 disappointingly slow train per hour which is almost never formed of more than 3 coaches. It's not worth £22 and I think most people know it.

I'm confident that we could help promote economic growth in Hull City using rail with:

-More frequency and much more capacity
-Better revenue protection
-Lower fares

I'm hopeful that the first two of those are on their way.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Hull Trains are planning to replace the 180s with a greater number of bi-modes. If that goes ahead and then at a later date the line to Hull is wired I can't see passengers flocking to use the Hull to London service simply because the pantograph is up for the entire journey!

I was not actually talking about just Hull to London. Sorry

Whilst Doncaster to Hull may feel “a local journey”, it is almost as far as Doncaster to Manchester (in the forty five/ fifty mile bracket – depending on whether you are counting crow/ road/ rail routes), so the fares seem to reflect that.

Additionally the service is currently pretty poor; 1 disappointingly slow train per hour which is almost never formed of more than 3 coaches. It's not worth £22 and I think most people know it.

I'm confident that we could help promote economic growth in Hull City using rail with:

-More frequency and much more capacity
-Better revenue protection
-Lower fares

So if Hull gets the sparks, then all these considerations would improve. A faster electric service with modern EMUs (not just London Bi-modes etc) would in the longer term improve prospects surely. (I know stop calling me Shirley )

 

[HowardGWR]

It was noticeable too, in the link kindly provided by Deltic (thanks BTW) that negative job growth was also experienced by Hull's nearest, albeit fairly distant, neighbours, such as Doncaster and Grimsby, so not much hope of any 'Eastern Powerhouse' effect on commuting in that area.

Here's the link again:
http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-c.../Cities-Outlook-2015-Change-in-jobs-04-13.pdf

 

[northwichcat]

I was not actually talking about just Hull to London. Sorry

So if Hull gets the sparks, then all these considerations would improve. A faster electric service with modern EMUs (not just London Bi-modes etc) would in the longer term improve prospects surely. (I know stop calling me Shirley )

Some people seem to think electric will automatically mean a big increase of passenger numbers which would have happened otherwise, which is why I said just putting up a pantograph for longer wouldn't attract extra passengers.

Surely switching the stoppers to Sheffield and Bridlington to electric would provide more benefits to Hull, given they are slow and serve a number of places local to Hull but the plan isn't to electrify to Sheffield/Bridlington, just to Selby.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Surely switching the stoppers to Sheffield and Bridlington to electric would provide more benefits to Hull, given they are slow and serve a number of places local to Hull but the plan isn't to electrify to Sheffield/Bridlington, just to Selby.

Sadly - after 2030 I feel/guess.

 

[Greenback]

Where large increases have been recorded, I am pretty sure that this has been influenced by such things as PTE tickets, split tickets, and geography, none of which work in Hull's favour compared to certain other cities.

 

[northwichcat]

Where large increases have been recorded, I am pretty sure that this has been influenced by such things as PTE tickets, split tickets, and geography, none of which work in Hull's favour compared to certain other cities.

In the case of my town:
1. Job creation and no affordable housing for the new employees meaning they have to travel to the town on a daily basis.
2. Withdrawal of subsided school/college bus services meaning the train is used as an alternative.

Number 1 also probably doesn't apply in Hull's case currently, not sure about number 2.

In terms of population Hull has slightly less residents than Milton Keynes and slightly more than Wolverhampton. Milton Keynes and Wolverhampton obviously have advantages over Hull for attracting rail usage.

 

[Greenback]

There are many more factors than I mentioned. I imagine that most them work against Hull.

 

[thewiltog]

You make a good point in referring to Brough, which I would expect to have grown, along with Howden.

Howden figures

2004/05 49,564
2014/15 99,484

 

[westv]

Brough numbers seem to have gone up around 28%.