To what extent does an incumbent operator have an advantage in a franchise award. I mean, I assume there's a degree of anonymity to it, but does someone have an "experience bonus", because they know the routes/staffing requirements etc. Just curious, given that a large number of franchises have been re-awarded to the same company.
In this case, would Abellio have the upper hand?
On a different topic, are there any rumours about what sort of plans are being put forward (rather than who will win - I'm not too fussed about the colour of the trains, mostly whether there'll finally be enough of them), or will everyone stick rigidly to the ITT just with variants on where to get the stock from.
Bidders who don't stick to the ITT will not win.
They can submit additional options, but these will only be considered once the baseline competition is decided.
Abellio obviously has inside knowledge as the incumbent, but Govia and Arriva are no mugs either, and have access to all the same operational data as Abellio, and all the same ROSCO bids for the stock.
Book fudging, effectively.
Originally, the North had two franchises, Arriva Trains Northern and First North Western. FNW ran most of the lines out of Manchester and Liverpool, and ATN ran everything else. Manchester - Scotland was run by Virgin (as part of Virgin XC I think).
In order to improve reliability, ATN and FNW were merged into Northern, the results of which can be seen in the exceptionally complex diagrams that Northern operate to make best use of their limited stock. (Follow a single 142 around for a day on RTT, it's insane).
Anyway, having done this, they realised that it was important to show that the privatised railway were profitable. As such, they extracted the more profitable inter-regional routes and made TPE, so that there could be a "profitable" Northern franchise, rather than just one large subsidy eater.
ATN + FNW would have made an unwieldy franchise trying to meet conflicting short and long distance needs.
The SRA wanted an intercity franchise and a local franchise with different management objectives, hence TPE and Northern.
They also wanted to clip the XC franchise.
All of these were heavily loss-making when they started, hence Manchester-Scotland being "downgraded".
All have now improved, although Northern is still the weakest.
I think it's evident that TPE and Northern franchises have improved significantly since 2004.
FTPE has always been well-regarded by DfT for turning the business round.
Remember also FTPE is actually a joint First/Keolis operation, and they are both bidding separately this time.