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HS2 future northern extensions

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edwin_m

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I think the rank unfairness of theses last election results will ensure a very quick break up of the Union which then raises the questions;
what responsibility does one country have for building connecting rail links. (The French very kindly built one on the other side of the Channel tunnel but did they have to?) and
would there be an economic incentive for England to build a link up to the border? Personally I think not.

Certainly we need to see how things pan out and particularly what the attitude of the new government to Scotland will be.

I think each national government has been responsible for funding its own section of the few international high speed lines that have been built. The Channel Tunnel link also carries French domestic traffic, and most of it also trains to and from Benelux, so it probably had as good a business case as most of the other French domestic high speed lines without even considering Eurostar.

However if Scotland does become independent I can't really see residual UK being willing to pay for a high speed route all the way to the border, particularly as if this happened "English Nationalism" would probably be a strong feature of the government of the day and there would be protests at spending on something that would be perceived to benefit only the Scots. This is arguably fallacious, because England would also benefit from better links with Scotland, but I don't see that argument carrying much weight. The rUK might pick up some share of the very expensive hilly section north of Preston to reflect the benefits to Carlisle, but probably wouldn't be prepared to pay for anything on the east side north of Newcastle.

Any northern route would would need several years of design and consultation and a Hybrid Bill, as Phase 1 and Phase 2 are currently undergoing. Between them these would last longer than a Parliament, so it's possible the development of a "shovel ready" route could be offered as a bargaining chip without any commitment to the much greater cost of actually building it.
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Featured very highly, Salmond in March suggested HS2 starting in Scotland (yeah no idea how that could physically work) would be one of the concessions he would demand. SNP are very very pro HS2.

Thanks for the info. I guess starting in Scotland would probably mean building the Edinburgh-Glasgow route and then working southwards.
 
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Tobbes

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I see HS2 Ph 3 to the central belt of Scotland as a key element to build support for a future federal UK. As such, it is a political priority for UK unionists as well as the SNP. However, as others have noted, this will take time.

The key point (and one that I got sick of reiterating during the IndyRef and the current election) is that HS2 benefits Scotland from the day Ph 1 opens, with CC sets using the new line providing modest but useful time savings, and more important, much greater reliability south of Birmingham. Clearly these benefits increase as Ph2 opens, and it would be great to start Ph3 planning now to begin construction as soon as possible.
 

edwin_m

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The key point (and one that I got sick of reiterating during the IndyRef and the current election) is that HS2 benefits Scotland from the day Ph 1 opens, with CC sets using the new line providing modest but useful time savings, and more important, much greater reliability south of Birmingham. Clearly these benefits increase as Ph2 opens, and it would be great to start Ph3 planning now to begin construction as soon as possible.

True for London journeys, but some WCML journeys between Scotland and northern England will actually get slower. The classic compatibles don't tilt so can't use enhanced permissible speeds, so some of the time benefit south of Birmingham/Golborne is lost further north. Cascading some Pendolinos to Manchester-Scotland (probably in shorter formations) would help in this respect.
 

Noddy

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I see HS2 Ph 3 to the central belt of Scotland as a key element to build support for a future federal UK. As such, it is a political priority for UK unionists as well as the SNP. However, as others have noted, this will take time.

The key point (and one that I got sick of reiterating during the IndyRef and the current election) is that HS2 benefits Scotland from the day Ph 1 opens, with CC sets using the new line providing modest but useful time savings, and more important, much greater reliability south of Birmingham. Clearly these benefits increase as Ph2 opens, and it would be great to start Ph3 planning now to begin construction as soon as possible.

Agreed. If the union survives until the 2021 Scottish Elections (which I think will be hung) I think everyone in the 2020s will be making it a priority. Until then it's going to be a real struggle. With the rise of Nationalist agendas on both side of the border, I really can't see how the SNP and Tories are going to work together to develop it. Despite the obvious benefits to people on both sides of the border.

If there is to be another referendum (2019?), called after a massive SNP win after next year's Scottish elections, there's zero chance of anything happening before that.
 
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LNW-GW Joint

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I think the rank unfairness of theses last election results

What unfairness? The people have spoken. Tories and SNP won, the rest lost.

Featured very highly, Salmond in March suggested HS2 starting in Scotland (yeah no idea how that could physically work) would be one of the concessions he would demand. SNP are very very pro HS2.

It's actually one of the positive negotiating points for the devolution settlement.
The UK Gov is currently responsible for cross-border transport and would have to fund all of it except the domestic Scottish element.
I don't say it will be "HSL in exchange for keeping Trident", but the horse trading might get to that level.
If HSL keeps Scotland in the Union it will be worth it.

I think each national government has been responsible for funding its own section of the few international high speed lines that have been built. The Channel Tunnel link also carries French domestic traffic, and most of it also trains to and from Benelux, so it probably had as good a business case as most of the other French domestic high speed lines without even considering Eurostar.

The French position was that they were planning to build LGV Nord as their 2nd HSL, before LGV Atlantique and the rest, because with Channel Tunnel traffic it had a better business case.
When we axed the 1975 scheme they put the Nord line back until the 1987 Tunnel scheme was approved.
So I'd say LGV Nord did depend on Eurostar for its business case.
There's also the French prestige thing, reflected in the Tunnel ownership, Alstom Eurostar trains and the design of HS1.
That also will have been part of the wider business case.
 

route:oxford

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HS1 (Scotland) & HS2 (England) is going to be an absolute priority during this parliament.

They don't even need to go for the full High Speed rolling stock yet! I'm sure the Pendolinos would happily run at 140mph on dedicated, HS track between Carlisle and Stirling/Perth via Glasgow.

It would knock around 20-25 minutes off the current fastest Carlisle-Glasgow journey time and allow new stations to be opened on the heritage route.

Did anyone else notice who The Sturgeon looked like this morning on Marr?

_82892645_marrsturgeon.jpg
 

Ironside

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The Tories will take their 24.9% of the electorate and treat it as a carte-blanche mandate. By 2020 the Lib Dems will be redeemed.

Where do you get that number from are you including people that didn't vote?
 

The Ham

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The Tories will take their 24.9% of the electorate and treat it as a carte-blanche mandate. By 2020 the Lib Dems will be redeemed.

How would you make elections fairer?

AV? That didn't get a good result in the 2011 referendum with about 2/3 of people voting for the status quo.

PR? How would that work? Would it be national, meaning that everyone could vote for parties such as Shin Fain, Plaid Cymru and the SNP? Alternatively, would it be regional, meaning that SNP would still get a very high number of MP's in Scotland whilst the Tories would still get lots in England potentially giving a similar headline result to the 2015 election (beaing in mind under PR Scotland would have something like 10 Tory MP's)? Wouldn't also mean the loss of local MP's with groups of say between 3 and 10 MP's serving a large area? If the areas are too small (say 3) then it would still be possible for a party in second place to get 18% of the vote and the major party get 55% and the major party still get all the MP's for that area. Make the areas too big and the MP's will chase votes in the more urban areas as they will be easier to contact, this could see Devon split 3 ways with the voting and MP's centred around Exeter, Plymouth and Torbay with most of the rest of the people not really knowing much about or being able to easily meet with their MP(s). It also wouldn't stop tactical voting, as people who would otherwise vote for one minor party (let's say Green) may vote for one of the larger parties to stop another minor party (let's say UKIP) getting any MP's.
 
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HSTEd

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How would you make elections fairer?

AV? That didn't get a good result in the 2011 referendum with about 2/3 of people voting for the status quo.
AV won't make elections fairer - it would just go from ignoring minor party votes to forcing voters to chose which one of the two major ones they dislike the least. Which in almost all seats will be the one that wins anyway.

It changes the result in a handful of marginals, that's about it.

PR? How would that work? Would it be national, meaning that everyone could vote for parties such as Shin Fain, Plaid Cymru and the SNP?
Alternatively, would it be regional, meaning that SNP would still get a very high number of MP's in Scotland whilst the Tories would still get lots in England potentially giving a similar headline result to the 2015 election (beaing in mind under PR Scotland would have something like 10 Tory MP's)?

List based PR systems are not necessarily the way forward, because of the problems with regionalist parties.
Any PR top up arrangement would involve four-nation level seats in all likelyhood - because there are no real regionalist parties in England and the larger the regions the more proportional the result would be - Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland would be run seperately for the same reason.

The SNP would get the same number of seats in Scotland under a list-based PR if the seats had been distributed properly.
50% of the vote in 10% of the seats is the same as 5% of the vote in 100% of the seats. They should (in theory) get approximately the same number either way.

Wouldn't also mean the loss of local MP's with groups of say between 3 and 10 MP's serving a large area? If the areas are too small (say 3) then it would still be possible for a party in second place to get 18% of the vote and the major party get 55% and the major party still get all the MP's for that area.

The Additional Member System, you elect a certain number of members using constituencies as you do now, you then award "top up seats" using the D'hondt method to parties that in a true proportional relationship should have more seats than they won in constituencies. You continue making it more proportional until you run out of "top-up" seats.

You don't even need a party list in most cases, since you can take the "highest scoring loser" candidates (in percentage terms, obviously) for the parties to make up the top up list. You would however need a list of extra candidates just in case the total number of seats won by each party were more than the number of (local) constituencies, but that would be very rarely used for obvious reasons.

This system has the advantage that you can keep the current constituency boundaries, avoiding a recounting of the boundaries and allowing it to be implemented almost immediately, by merging adjacent constituencies to form the new larger ones.
For example, Scotland would be merged from its current 59 to 30, with the remaining 29 seats being used for top-up. (All but three constituencies formed out of two antecedents, one out of three and two individuals - as the Western Isles and Orkney/Shetland have big cultural differences from the mainland).

In this case, the SNP would have won 29 of the 30 constituencies (Orkney and Shetland would have still gone Lib Dem) - but they would have been unlikely to win any of the top up seats (what was the total SNP share of the vote in Scotland?) which would have mostly have been won by Labour and Conservative candidates who would have been unseated.

This way we still have constituency MPs but Parliament looks a lot more proportional because ~50% of its members are chosen by proportional schemes. By first using failed constituency candidates instead of a party-HQ decided list you also weaken the ability of HQ to pack the house with political cronies - since you would only allow a list if they had 100% constituency coverage across the voting area (which in England would be huge).
 
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Busaholic

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My solution, which I admit to not having thought out in great detail, would be to retain the single-member constituency with the FPTP system, abolish the House of Lords in its entirety and replace it with a second chamber reflecting the national vote for each political party, so it would almost never be able to be dominated by one party. Legislation would have to go through both 'houses' (though I'd prefer the 2nd chamber not to have House in the title) and could be initiated by either chamber. The other house could then delay, but not block entirely, legislation passed in the first house.
I'd welcome any thoughts beyond the 'nah, rubbish' variety.
 

edwin_m

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My solution, which I admit to not having thought out in great detail, would be to retain the single-member constituency with the FPTP system, abolish the House of Lords in its entirety and replace it with a second chamber reflecting the national vote for each political party, so it would almost never be able to be dominated by one party. Legislation would have to go through both 'houses' (though I'd prefer the 2nd chamber not to have House in the title) and could be initiated by either chamber. The other house could then delay, but not block entirely, legislation passed in the first house.
I'd welcome any thoughts beyond the 'nah, rubbish' variety.

Of the two I have to say I prefer the one presented by HSTEd. This is simply because the top-up MPs are chosen from those who came closest to winning rather than from a list nominated by the party, which encourages people to have a genunine relationship with their electors instead of being parachuted in. Indeed there is no need for a prospective MP to be affiliated to a party at all.

However I would split England into regions with similar populations to that of Scotland (the nine used already would do as well as any - I think the EU elections use these too) and apply the top-up process separately in each one. This means the top-up MPs would still have an association with their own region, and somebody who wanted to raise an issue but didn't want to go through their local constituency MP could probably find someone more sympathetic and reasonably local among the top-ups.
 

Noddy

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It changes the result in a handful of marginals, that's about it.

Possibly in the past but not in the 2015 election. As someone in favour of preserving the union and voting in Scotland I would have voted in preference for all three main unionist parties but not the SNP, Greens, UKIP or the SSP. Even in Gordon Alex Salmond only got 47.7% of the vote, unionist parties won 52.3% of the vote. He probably still would have got in but in some other constituencies the SNP definitely wouldn't have done. Likewise many more people might have voted UKIP with a second choice of conservative, or in the north possibly labour, knowing they weren't throwing away their vote resulting in UKIP winning a few more seats.

Personally I would prefer PR over AV but I think the whole complexion of the 2015 election would have changed with AV - parties would have been trying to get your second and even third too.

List based PR systems are not necessarily the way forward, because of the problems with regionalist parties.
Any PR top up arrangement would involve four-nation level seats in all likelyhood - because there are no real regionalist parties in England and the larger the regions the more proportional the result would be - Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland would be run seperately for the same reason.

I seriously don't understand this? In Britain (inc Gibraltar but not N. Ireland) we have a list based system for Euro elections and the SNP and Plaid both win a representative number of MEPs. OK a really small UK regionalist parties (eg Mebyon Kernow) might struggle at Euro level but if a similar system was introduced at UK elections the lists would probably be at something like county level and it would probably actually improve Mebyon Kernow's chances of getting a MP.

The SNP would get the same number of seats in Scotland under a list-based PR if the seats had been distributed properly.

Not if they'd been using a sensible PR system like D'Hondt:
 

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po8crg

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I'm a Lib Dem parliamentary candidate, and by the standards of such, I'm regarded as a serious electoral systems nerd.

I'm really having to hold back on this, but it's waaaaaaaay off-topic. Can we please stop?
 

HSTEd

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Not if they'd been using a sensible PR system like D'Hondt:

I mean, a list system with one 650 seat "constituency" and ten 65 seat "constituencies" would give the same result for the SNP if all the votes were in one of the 65 seat constituencies.

Not that the result would be the same as under FPTP, which it obviously wouldn't be.

As to being off-topic - find me a topic around here that isn't :P
But yes, perhaps it should be stopped or split.
 
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Haydn1971

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I don't buy into the "what if" scenarios based upon the current "share" of the vote, simply because of strategic voting and voter apathy - both of these factors have the potential to significantly change the outcome of the election results - one thing is clear though, any sort of PR system would most likely end with a coalition type government.
 

HSTEd

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You would anticipate that it would certainly be coalitions all round because the parties would splinter into far smaller parties with far more 'focussed' agendas.
 

Haydn1971

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The suggestion of coming in via the west to Edinburgh appears to indicate a WC based route rather than an EC route picking up Newcastle
 

clc

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How many miles of new high speed track would need to be built near Glasgow and Edinburgh to generate enough benefits for the business case to stack up?
 

Haydn1971

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How many miles of new high speed track would need to be built near Glasgow and Edinburgh to generate enough benefits for the business case to stack up?


How longs a piece of string ! The key in my opinion is make sure that the proposed HS link between Glasgow and Edinburgh is maximised as part of a larger HS scheme between The North West & the Central Belt - that would suggest a Glasgow-Edinburgh HS route via Carstairs, although it's longer than a direct route, it will help improve the BCR for HS to the south.
 

NotATrainspott

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As always, I'll be very interested indeed to see what sort of combination of upgrades and new tracks could deliver the 3 hour timing to Scotland. There isn't any new information in the report, but there are going to have to be some very major decisions made about how any improvements could be expanded upon in future.

The idealised end result is that you have TSI-standard captive platforms and captive tracks separated from the classic ones at both Glasgow Central and Edinburgh Waverley. That will be expensive to realise, and not entirely necessary when trains will split to be 200m long and will have to be classic-compatible anyway. If the rough outline of the Glasgow-Edinburgh section is that it tries to follow the M8, possibly a few kilometres to the south, then a Whifflet line approach to Glasgow could temporarily tie back into the classic tracks at Rutherglen, while at the eastern end the tracks could temporarily connect back to the E&G or the WCML where they cross the Edinburgh City Bypass. Further south, a relatively quick win of reduced journey times per track kilometre would be to bypass the curvy valley between Abingdon and Moffat, again connecting back into the WCML as it straightens up again. It would probably be necessary to build the new track between the new E&G line and Abingdon as well, so the first complete captive section could stretch from Rutherglen to Hermiston Gait to Moffat. Another small section to bypass would be the sinuous bit between Lockerbie and the Border, after which the tracks are relatively straight all the way through Carlisle. Similar new sections could be built to bypass Lune Gorge and other sinuous areas of the WCML in Cumbria and Lancashire. Temporary connections need not be grade-separated, as is the case on the LGV Rhin-Rhone, and the remaining classic sections would be available for use as enormous freight loops. So long as they are built with the intention that the other classic sections may be bypassed in future without resulting in a sub-optimal high speed route, then there is no long-term problem. High speed routes mean fewer track kilometres, as the track has to be straighter and thus shorter, as well as increased speeds, so the intention here would be to reduce the number track kilometres more than to increase average speed to reduce journey time. ETCS signalling will be rolled out across the northern WCML around the same time as HS2 classic-compatibles will start running so in some places, there may be some scope for running at >200km/h speeds.
 

clc

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... that would suggest a Glasgow-Edinburgh HS route via Carstairs...

If the rough outline of the Glasgow-Edinburgh section is that it tries to follow the M8, possibly a few kilometres to the south...

The E2G route could be a compromise between those two options where it follows the new HS line south towards Carstairs for 10 miles or so before cutting across country. That would reduce the cost to the Scottish Govt significantly assuming the sections from Carstairs to Glasgow and Edinburgh were funded by Westminster.
 

Altnabreac

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I wouldn't read this article as suggesting new TSI compliant City Centre stations are part of the plan.

Basically it suggests that a new E-G line with a South facing spur tied into existing stations is the plan.

It also confirms the business case isn't there for a full TSI compliant route from Wigan to Glasgow and Edinburgh but I don't think anyone really thought it was at this stage.

So the question is how much new track do you need to get the journey time under 3 hours? My best guess is 2 longish sections, one somewhere between Lancaster and Carlisle, one somewhere between Carlisle and Carstairs.

Interesting to see how much info gets released and when. Big Greengauge 21 conference coming up in Glasgow in September. Could we see an announcement there?
 

clc

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Basically it suggests that a new E-G line with a South facing spur tied into existing stations is the plan.

Would'nt that mean the southern spur could only happen if the Edinburgh-Glasgow line went ahead?
 

Altnabreac

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Would'nt that mean the southern spur could only happen if the Edinburgh-Glasgow line went ahead?

Indeed. The business cases are almost certainly highly interlinked.

The 3 hour journey times would be difficult to achieve without E-G being built. Equally E-G may not generate enough BCR without the extra cross border traffic that sub 3 hour journey times would create.
 

HSTEd

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I assume you would simply continue north from Wigan to save thirty minutes.
Reconstruction of the spur to be 200mph instead of 140 would save a few minutes.
 
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