Cascading Rolling Stock 2016-2020?

[lfc2014uk]

Anybody have any updates on cascading rolling stock to Northern / TPE / Virgin ?

Rumours

TPE have been offered class 442 from May 2016 to replace Class 170s going to Chiltern?

More 319s heading to Northern after new franchise winners announced in April 2016?

If Stagecoach win TPE franchise April 2016 class 222 would be cascaded to TPE routes once midland mainline electrified in 2018/19?

Virgin East Coast Class 225 to be cascaded to Virgin West Coast and run new routes ?

Liverpool - Scotland via Newton-Le-Willows spur
Holyhead - Liverpool Lime Street via Halton Curve (2017/18)

Or has anybody have any other cascading rumours or fact info

 

[47802]

Good grief is this going to turn into another pointless thread on 101 things you can do with a 442.

For starters I doubt there will be any spare 222's for 2018/19 some suggestion that Midland electrification may be delayed. If it proceeds to current plan HST's will get the boot first so they don't have to be made 2020 compliant.

Until there is some clarification regarding electrification projects, and we see what the winning bidders of Northern and TPX propose a lot of this speculation is pointless and has already been discussed to death.

 

[Haydn1971]

Given the farce and delay over electrification - I predict a further fat order of DMU's and a fat order of Bi-mode commuter units for TPE with 1/3 doors

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Anybody have any updates on cascading rolling stock to Northern / TPE / Virgin ?
Rumours
TPE have been offered class 442 from May 2016 to replace Class 170s going to Chiltern?
More 319s heading to Northern after new franchise winners announced in April 2016?
If Stagecoach win TPE franchise April 2016 class 222 would be cascaded to TPE routes once midland mainline electrified in 2018/19?
Virgin East Coast Class 225 to be cascaded to Virgin West Coast and run new routes ?
Liverpool - Scotland via Newton-Le-Willows spur
Holyhead - Liverpool Lime Street via Halton Curve (2017/18)
Or has anybody have any other cascading rumours or fact info

More 319s to Northern is a given, but no use until Phase 4 is done (and not much use until 2017 with only Manchester-Preston wired).
MML won't be electrified to Sheffield before 2020 at least, so no 222 cascades till then (first trains released will be HSTs).
225 cascades depend on later IEP deliveries to VTEC (the first tranche releases the HSTs), so will also be 2020-ish.
An entire round of linked franchise bids has to happen over the next 2-3 years (West Mids, ICWC, W&B, East Mids) as well as TPE/Northern so who knows what they will throw up.

 

[The Planner]

Virgin East Coast Class 225 to be cascaded to Virgin West Coast and run new routes ?

Ummmm, why would they do that?

 

[WatcherZero]

Wait till around November and we will have the winning Northern/TPE bidders rolling stock plan.

 

[MCR247]

Anybody have any updates on cascading rolling stock to Northern / TPE / Virgin ?

Rumours

TPE have been offered class 442 from May 2016 to replace Class 170s going to Chiltern?

More 319s heading to Northern after new franchise winners announced in April 2016?

If Stagecoach win TPE franchise April 2016 class 222 would be cascaded to TPE routes once midland mainline electrified in 2018/19?

Virgin East Coast Class 225 to be cascaded to Virgin West Coast and run new routes ?

Liverpool - Scotland via Newton-Le-Willows spur
Holyhead - Liverpool Lime Street via Halton Curve (2017/18)

Or has anybody have any other cascading rumours or fact info

You seem to be reading too much into the relationship between TOCs and rolling stock.

If 222s were to move to TPE, whether or not stagecoach ran both franchises would be irrelevant.

 

[route:oxford]

For starters I doubt there will be any spare 222's for 2018/19 some suggestion that Midland electrification may be delayed. If it proceeds to current plan HST's will get the boot first so they don't have to be made 2020 compliant.

Although Ex-FGW HSTs will be made power-doored for use on Scotrail. Perhaps they could spend some time on the MML prior to heading North?

 

[47802]

Although Ex-FGW HSTs will be made power-doored for use on Scotrail. Perhaps they could spend some time on the MML prior to heading North?

Why would that happen Transport Scotland have an agreed franchise plan with Abellio for implementing HST's, and any cascade plan for 222's is likely to be dependent of how MML electrification progresses and the proposals of winning bidder of the next EMT franchise.

Remember also the ITT for TPX states they can only take existing rolling stock from other franchise that is no longer required, and even then certain potential rolling stock which might be used by Northern is ruled out.

 

[RobShipway]

I cannot see either 225's moving to WCML to do the routes below or Class 222's moving to TPE:

Liverpool - Scotland via Newton-Le-Willows spur
Holyhead - Liverpool Lime Street via Halton Curve (2017/18)

It is more likely, that whoever wins the new TPE franchise will order new trains to be used and those will probably be hybrid in some form.

The 225's will not move in my opinion as you would have to retrofit the tilt mechanism to both the Class 91 locomotives and the MK4 coaches, which would be quiet expensive.

 

[Haydn1971]

It is more likely, that whoever wins the new TPE franchise will order new trains to be used and those will probably be hybrid in some form.

Seems very likely, but given the recent news of delay, anything could happen now.

The 225's will not move in my opinion as you would have to retrofit the tilt mechanism to both the Class 91 locomotives and the MK4 coaches, which would be quiet expensive.

Only if you want to run them on 110mph lines at 125mph surely ? I'm surprised no one has suggest mothballing them for use on HS2 as a cost saving exercise (that's a joke folks)

 

[DasLunatic]

I'm fairly certain once upon a time GA mooted the idea of getting regeared 91s + Mk4s to run Intercity services... have they shelved the idea?

 

[bussnapperwm]

And for the obligatory "What to do with a Wessie" post....strip the traction gear out, make the cab into extra seating, scrap first class and couple them To some Cl60s with ETH added and run them on Northerns "senic routes"...

 

[FQ]

How about getting 91+mk4s to work on the electrified TPE section with 442s and 67s on the other bits.

Also maybe get a few HSTs to work on the Chiltern stuff to Birmingham/Stratford (and maybe Oxford/Banbury/Bicester). Then the 168s that are cascaded off that route can work on the Marylebone to Aylesbury/Milton Keynes stuff and maybe a few other routes (such as Marylebone-High Wycombe). Then Chiltern can keep a few 165s for working the other services out of Marylebone, the Princes Risborough to Aylesbury and the Leamington to Birmingham shuttle.

 

[RobShipway]

How about getting 91+mk4s to work on the electrified TPE section with 442s and 67s on the other bits.

Also maybe get a few HSTs to work on the Chiltern stuff to Birmingham/Stratford (and maybe Oxford/Banbury/Bicester). Then the 168s that are cascaded off that route can work on the Marylebone to Aylesbury/Milton Keynes stuff and maybe a few other routes (such as Marylebone-High Wycombe). Then Chiltern can keep a few 165s for working the other services out of Marylebone, the Princes Risborough to Aylesbury and the Leamington to Birmingham shuttle.

I know that it is going to be expensive, but I think the Class 91's and Mk4's should go to TPE to do routes such as Manchester Scotland and also there routes from Cleethorpes to Manchester, with those services maybe going on to Liverpool. To do this service though there is going to need to be a class 91 at one end of the train, with a class 43 at the other end such that class 43 can be controlled from the class 91 and vice versa the power from the class 91 can be controlled from the class 43, making a hybrid train. Where the class 91 and class 43 work together the train I suspect would be limited to 125mph, where the class 43 works on it's own the train is limited to 100mph.

This would mean that the majority of the class 185's could be moved on to Abellio ScotRail to replace the class 158's, which in turn could be used to replace some of the class 150's with Arriva Trains Wales and First Great Western where they have not been replaced with using class 165/166 trains.

However, I still think any new TPE franchise holder is more likely to go for new rolling stock to meet their demands.

 

[northwichcat]

Well this thread has turned from one person asking if there's any truth in rumours they've heard to some people listing their fantasy ideas for rolling stock again.

Scotrail are taking on HSTs from FGW and they'll release some 156s, 158s and 170s as a result of getting HSTs and electrification. Northern bidders can take on any of those released DMUs. Scotrail have no plans to take on any other DMUs before the end of the franchise.

Northern bidders can also take on the Sprinters released by FGW (150/1s and 153s) and if they wanted the LO 172s.

185s are expected to remain based at Ardwick for the foreseeable future. DfT's preferred plan for future 185 use was Liverpool-Nottingham in 6 car formation (with 158s continuing to run Nottingham-Norwich) but it sounds like now they will likely go to Northern eventually as class 150 replacements. Some 185s may initially be subleased by Northern when the franchises are re-let to cover some of the 'Regional Express' services which will transfer from TPE to Northern.

The 350/4s are rumoured to be transferred to Northern for their Regional Express electric services. TPE will need more carriages for Manchester Airport to Scotland and possible portion working to allow Liverpool/Blackpool to Scotland. Any Liverpool to Scotland services will be TPE not Virgin.

TPE aren't allowed to take on cascaded Sprinters or Turbostars. That means new build or cascaded Intercity trains are the most likely options for them to get extra capacity.

 

[CosherB]

Well this thread has turned from one person asking if there's any truth in rumours they've heard to some people listing their fantasy ideas for rolling stock again.

On here? Surely not!

 

[Suraggu]

My sides have now stopped splitting from the first post and other posts on here.

There is no firm agreement where class 91's & Mk.4's are going except a small number of locos and rakes are staying with the ICEC franchise.

Within the industry it looked likely the Mk.4 rakes would be either heading to East Anglia or the East Midlands franchise but with Siemens showcasing this new 125mph Intercity EMU, that could be one of the final nails in the coffin for the Mk.4 fleet.

As for the class 91's, they belong on the East Coast Mainline. They have such a high gearing that they would cause extended journey times on any other route in the country.
Also Class 91's are notoriously expensive to maintain and need a lot of care and attention to keep them running at peak performance.
Also they are notoriously unreliable with a high miles per casualty. This has been since introduction.

 

[47802]

My sides have now stopped splitting from the first post and other posts on here.

There is no firm agreement where class 91's & Mk.4's are going except a small number of locos and rakes are staying with the ICEC franchise.

Within the industry it looked likely the Mk.4 rakes would be either heading to East Anglia or the East Midlands franchise but with Siemens showcasing this new 125mph Intercity EMU, that could be one of the final nails in the coffin for the Mk.4 fleet.

As for the class 91's, they belong on the East Coast Mainline. They have such a high gearing that they would cause extended journey times on any other route in the country.
Also Class 91's are notoriously expensive to maintain and need a lot of care and attention to keep them running at peak performance.
Also they are notoriously unreliable with a high miles per casualty. This has been since introduction.

I don't see why the Siemens unit has a particular bearing on things, Hitachi already have 125mph units, Bombardier have designed the Aventra for up to 125mph, I'm sure some of the other manufacturers may also offer a suitable train, but it would seem that new EMU's will be most likely for the routes mentioned.

 

[Haydn1971]

It's the final nail as in, there's more than one band in the show... Hitachi have hit the ground running, Bombardier will be in full flow now with the Crossrail order and Siemens are a proven supplier of the goods... Who else is there currently - Hyundai perhaps ?

 

[DT611]

I know that it is going to be expensive, but I think the Class 91's and Mk4's should go to TPE to do routes such as Manchester Scotland and also there routes from Cleethorpes to Manchester, with those services maybe going on to Liverpool. To do this service though there is going to need to be a class 91 at one end of the train, with a class 43 at the other end such that class 43 can be controlled from the class 91 and vice versa the power from the class 91 can be controlled from the class 43, making a hybrid train.

or, an even better less costly idea, leave the sets as they are with the 91 and the DVT

 

[RobShipway]

It's the final nail as in, there's more than one band in the show... Hitachi have hit the ground running, Bombardier will be in full flow now with the Crossrail order and Siemens are a proven supplier of the goods... Who else is there currently - Hyundai perhaps ?

There is also CAF as well, I believe?

or, an even better less costly idea, leave the sets as they are with the 91 and the DVT

As noted above, if the 91/DVT sets are left as they are currently I cannot see them moving away from the ECML and if they are moved to other areas they will need some adapting for those routes in some form I suspect whether they go to the East Midland or Anglia routes.

You may also find that where there is bidders are going for Inter city routes such as TPE, East Midlands or Anglia that they will probably look at new hybrid trains or trains that can be configured into hybrid trains as it would be less costly to run those than a mixture of electric and diesel fleets.

 

[Boothby97]

or, an even better less costly idea, leave the sets as they are with the 91 and the DVT

I know it was a crazy idea, but what he suggested was running them to Cleethorpes (using 43+Mark 4 set+91). If you kept them as 91+Mark 4 set+DVT you would struggle to get the train east of Doncaster, unless you gave it hard enough push

 

[D365]

Err, how much power can you tap from a single Class 43, it's not enough surely..?
If only to indulge in the forum fantasy.

 

[47802]

So this now turning into a crackpot thread about IC225 sets, I guess some Open access operators might be interested, and maybe some charter operators might be interested in coaches that didn't require too much work to make them 2020 compliant, assuming there are actually any charter operators left by then.

Running a 91 set with an HST power car between Manchester and Cleethorpes yes that's about as likely as me winning a million on lotto

 

[Haydn1971]

Running a 91 set with an HST power car between Manchester and Cleethorpes yes that's about as likely as me winning a million on lotto

Agreed - these are high speed mainline units, running them on what's effectively a "sexpressed" up commuter service (TPE) between Cleethorpes and Liverpool isn't going to work - the Mk4's are certainly worth taking into next the next decade, the big question is what will happen with the 91's - they are proven to work with the Mk4's so why take risks in finding a new loco - so I'm expecting the most likely outcome in order is, MML (most likely), GEML or as a wild card, on the northern part of WCML for Scotland-Manchester Airport services

 

[Steve14]

How about getting 91+mk4s to work on the electrified TPE section with 442s and 67s on the other bits.

Also maybe get a few HSTs to work on the Chiltern stuff to Birmingham/Stratford (and maybe Oxford/Banbury/Bicester). Then the 168s that are cascaded off that route can work on the Marylebone to Aylesbury/Milton Keynes stuff and maybe a few other routes (such as Marylebone-High Wycombe). Then Chiltern can keep a few 165s for working the other services out of Marylebone, the Princes Risborough to Aylesbury and the Leamington to Birmingham shuttle.

That's a good shout too but personally as mentioned earlier in the thread, the 91s would have to be modified to operate under the OH lines on the WCML which would be a costly job. I personally think the 91s alongwith the it's own respective sets would do justice on the GA lines to Norwich and use those to start more services instead of narrowing it down to just Norwich. And then any of the DVTs and Mk3 coaches can be used on the TPE with a re-engineered more powerful HST power car.

 

[Stats]

The TPE ITT almost invites bidders to propose bi-mode without explicitly saying it. It requires bidders to have a fleet plan strategy that minimises the costs on completion of the electrification programme, minimises the dis-benefits to passengers on routes that will not be electrified and requires electric units to be used on 90% of relevant route mileage.

If I was a TPE bidder I would have ordered a small fleet of bi-mode units for the Liverpool to Newcastle service as a stop gap to ordering a bigger fleet of EMUs on electrification and then cascaded the bimodes to Middlesbrough and Scarborough services when the electrification of the core is complete. To minimise costs the bimodes would be an add on to the GWR AT300 order. This would also allow the 185s that would have been used on Newcastle services to strengthen other services through the core until the EMU Fleet replaces them.

 

[47802]

Agreed - these are high speed mainline units, running them on what's effectively a "sexpressed" up commuter service (TPE) between Cleethorpes and Liverpool isn't going to work - the Mk4's are certainly worth taking into next the next decade, the big question is what will happen with the 91's - they are proven to work with the Mk4's so why take risks in finding a new loco - so I'm expecting the most likely outcome in order is, MML (most likely), GEML or as a wild card, on the northern part of WCML for Scotland-Manchester Airport services

Personally I doubt you will see them on either the MML or GEML, haven't Stagecoach previously stated a preference for running 125mph EMU's if they retain the EMT franchise.

--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

The TPE ITT almost invites bidders to propose bi-mode without explicitly saying it. It requires bidders to have a fleet plan strategy that minimises the costs on completion of the electrification programme, minimises the dis-benefits to passengers on routes that will not be electrified and requires electric units to be used on 90% of relevant route mileage.

If I was a TPE bidder I would have ordered a small fleet of bi-mode units for the Liverpool to Newcastle service as a stop gap to ordering a bigger fleet of EMUs on electrification and then cascaded the bimodes to Middlesbrough and Scarborough services when the electrification of the core is complete. To minimise costs the bimodes would be an add on to the GWR AT300 order. This would also allow the 185s that would have been used on Newcastle services to strengthen other services through the core until the EMU Fleet replaces them.

I would agree a small Bi-mode build followed by a more extensive EMU build on Electrification completion does seem to make the most sense for TPE.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Personally I doubt you will see them on either the MML or GEML, haven't Stagecoach previously stated a preference for running 125mph EMU's if they retain the EMT franchise.

The thing about DMUs and EMUs is that DMUs have a significant disadvantage over diesel loco-hauled - rattly engines underneath. EMUs don't, as electric running gear is very quiet. So there are few reasons *not* to go EMU over electric LH, and many reasons in favour.