General Election 2015 - Thoughts/Predictions/Results

[MidnightFlyer]

The monarch is all truth be told relatively powerless these days, certainly infinitely more so than the monarchs back in the middle of the last millennium were, so I doubt we'll have a dictatorial one ever again. If anything they probably stop us getting a tyrannical Prime Minister / government as they can very easily not sign into law anything they so wish (granted it was way back in the Middle Ages the last time that happened).

That said, I honestly can't see monarchy lasting an awful lot longer in this country, I'm not sure when that will happen but I can't see George ever reigning over us. My flatmates and I 'mass debate' this kind of subject a lot, the only reason any of them stumped up for retaining a monarchy is that financially they run in the black. I know that's not conclusive research but a lot of people I speak to head down that line. I think a lot of support for the monarchy over the past centuries stemmed from people still being rather religious and seeing the monarch as divine, God's appointment if you like. With the general liberalisation and secularisation of British society these days that kind of mindset is dead and gone by and large.

Mind you having said all that, imagine if, using an American-style system, the Conservatives headed by President Cameron or Labour headed by President Milliband gained a majority in the Senate and Congress... The perpetual neutrality of having a monarch as head of state stops any potential mass political overhaul of a nation.

 

[yorksrob]

I know there's no president. But if there was it would allow for people to vote for their favourite MP and ensure their favourite party gets into government. Rather than these compromises nobody voted for.

Mind you having said all that, imagine if, using an American-style system, the Conservatives headed by President Cameron or Labour headed by President Milliband gained a majority in the Senate and Congress... The perpetual neutrality of having a monarch as head of state stops any potential mass political overhaul of a nation.

Arguably, the bi-party system we've had until recently seems to have led to some fairly extreme ideological swings during the twentieth century.

Maybe a future of finely balanced coalitions might herald a more consensual form of Government in future.

 

[GrimsbyPacer]

MidnightFlyer, But you have no problem with Joe Walsh being president?
(From your text above profile picture)

 

[MidnightFlyer]

MidnightFlyer, But you have no problem with Joe Walsh being president?
(From your text above profile picture)

That's entirely in jest, it's a reference to his mock presidential campaign back in 1980. He's my favourite musician and has had an exceptional impact on my life: that's the reason he's my custom title and avatar, not because I endorse any political views he holds (which at a guess I'd disagree with anyway).

 

[Oswyntail]

The main strength of our system of government is that, while the monarch has little or no power to initiate anything, everyone owes their allegiance to the crown. Thus we t have government leaders unable to flood the armed forces with placemen, a police force that, despite all efforts, serves the people, a civil service that continues to run the country fairly well. And, in all cases, institutions that know, if push comes to shove, they can refuse to obey "unconstitutional" demands from Parliament.
As for the fatuous "we didn't vote for the current lot" joke - well, yes we did; as an electorate, we voted for a centrist party with a slight lean to the right, but tempered with a hint of a socialist party, and that is exactly what we got

 

[krus_aragon]

I don't need to look on Google as I knew the answer, I just wanted you to put it on here so people can see that if you're under 58 you've never had the chance to vote on Europe.

To be flippant, until last year it had been over three hundred years since anyone had the chance to vote on the union of England and Scotland (and even then only the members of each parliament got to do so).

 

[Bishopstone]

My thoughts:

1. The 'three surges' - SNP, Green and UKIP - will unwind to a significant extent by polling day.

In the case of the SNP and Greens, the surge is driven by a significant number of younger people, who history has shown (eg Lib Dems in 2010) will give very definitive and enthusiastic responses to polling organisations, then forget to register to vote; or forget to vote, or change their minds at the last minute.

In the case of UKIP, I believe much of their support will wake up and smell the coffee: ie, only two people might be Prime Minister after the GE, and neither of them is Farage. So, a great number of them will go back from whence they came, which means the Tories and, to a lesser extent, Labour.

(I'm not dismissing the surges entirely - I think all three will do better than in 2010, but not as well as their current polling suggests.)

2. The Greens will get one MP (Caroline Lucas re-elected) and UKIP two: Douglas Carswell in Clacton, plus one of Thurrock or Great Yarmouth. In South Thanet, Nigel Farage will lose to the Tories.

3. The Lib Dems will do far better than their polling share indicates, and in fact their national polling numbers are almost irrelevant. Their MPs are well dug-in, fight on local issues, and although their activist base is depleted they will throw everything they have at the 50-ish seats they need to defend, and almost nothing elsewhere.

4. Labour will emerge as the largest party in the Commons, although the Tories may win more votes. Labour will be some way short of an overall majority, and will conclude a coalition agreement with the Lib Dems which includes significant constitutional reform.

5. Cameron will be gone as Tory leader by year end, and Miliband as Labour leader within two years. Farage will cling-on at the UKIP helm after an almighty and very entertaining bun fight, and Nick Clegg.... will still be in post at the 2020 GE in the absence of a need to walk away on health grounds.

 

[me123]

I respectfully disagree that the SNP surge will disappear. I don't have access to the most recent polls as I'm in the move, but the number of oeople anticipated to vote SNP has long been in the region of 45% of the electorate, and has been relatively stable at that level. As you will recall, 45% voted yes I the referendum and I suspect that this generally reflects Yes voters voting SNP (the reality of course is far more complex, but it is pretty safe bet). The former Yes camp aren't really going away and remain motivated. Only a couple of years ago, a result as close as that would have been inconceivable, and there is a genuine belief (perhaps unfounded) amongst the Yes camp that independence is ultimately inevitable. If the trend continues, 45% of the vote is enough to win a huge number if seats in Westminster for the SNP. And even if it does tail off slightly, which it may well do, I reckon that the SNP are on track to win a record number of seats.

The SNP surge also saw record numbers registering to vote and a quite remarkable turnout in excess of 80%. In Scotland, the referendum has helped attract lots of younger people to become more politically involved. They are more likely to vote this year than five years ago. And there is probably a greater belief that each vote will make a difference his year, compared to the 2010 election where Scotland's vote did not change yet our government did. For this reason I suspect that we will also be less likely to be swayed by arguments that "it is a two party system so a vote for anyone who is not labour or Tory is wasted". The 2010 election showed that Scotland's vote doesn't really count towards much. So people know that voting labour to stop the Tories simply doesn't work.

 

[Tetchytyke]

1. The 'three surges' - SNP, Green and UKIP - will unwind to a significant extent by polling day.

In the case of the SNP and Greens, the surge is driven by a significant number of younger people, who history has shown (eg Lib Dems in 2010) will give very definitive and enthusiastic responses to polling organisations, then forget to register to vote; or forget to vote, or change their minds at the last minute.

Someone far more cynical than I would suggest this is precisely the reason why the new form of electoral registration has "unaccountably" dropped lots of students off the register.

The SNP will do very well in Scotland, I don't think their strength is a blip. They have been in control at Holyrood for quite some time, I think this is just an extension of it. And it is a relatively risk-free vote for left-leaning Scots, as the SNP have made it clear that they will not work with the Conservatives.

I think the Greens may surprise in a couple of constituencies- Sheffield Hallam springs to mind- but generally will do little.

I would agree with you on UKIP. The "Labour" UKIP voters are the sorts of people who have now defected from the BNP; in local or EU elections the BNP did OK, but on a national level did nothing. I see the same thing happening for UKIP here. The "Conservative" UKIP voters are generally astute enough to understand that a vote for Farage is a vote for Labour, thanks to our voting system, and will generally come back to the Tories. The only places UKIP will do well will be in the poor south-eastern towns where they currently have MPs, although I do expect them to lose Rochester.

I'm still not sure about the Lib Dems. Outside of their traditional West Country Liberal heartlands they have generally done well in relatively wealthy areas where people do not want Labour, but definitely do not want the Tories (e.g. Cambridge, Sutton, Leeds NW). It'll be interesting if people will stay with them in this election, or whether they will switch to Labour just to avoid another five years of David Cameron. If the Lib Dems can persuade these constituents that they're better at controlling the Tories than Labour will be, they'll be OK. I think it's a given that the Lib Dems will lose Redcar though.

 

[Bishopstone]

I think it's a given that the Lib Dems will lose Redcar though.

Agreed. To which list Norwich South, Manchester Withington and Burnley (all to Labour) can be added, and probably Bradford East although trying to predict the politics of that city is a dangerous game.

 

[ainsworth74]

I think it's a given that the Lib Dems will lose Redcar though.

If Ian Swales was staying on then I think Labour would have a tough fight on their hands to retake the seat and I'd actually be fairly confident of a Lib Dem hold. Especially considering the local Labour party is in utter disarray with resignations from and de-selections of long standing councillors (including the leader and deputy leader of the council which has given a coalition of Lib Dems and Independents control until May).

However with Swales standing down and his replacement doing things like this I'm quite confident Labour will storm back into power in Redcar & Cleveland.

A Liberal Democrat candidate has apologised for taking a selfie in front of a crematorium furnace and posting it to a dating app.

The photo, obtained by Political Scrapbook, shows Josh Mason posing at the Kirkleatham Memorial Park and Crematorium near Yearby.

Mr Mason, 26, confirmed to the BBC he took the photo, which was uploaded to dating app Tinder and Facebook.

He will stand as prospective MP for Redcar in May's general election.

Mr Mason, who is deputy leader of Redcar and Cleveland Borough Council, said: "I deeply regret any offence I may have caused".

He declined to be interviewed, but said in a statement: "Being born and bred in Redcar and Cleveland, I imagine that one day, Yearby Crematorium will be my own final destination.

"My visit there was a stark reminder of our shared mortality.

"Indeed, I have already said a last 'goodbye' to a number of family friends and colleagues there.

"Nevertheless, I deeply regret any offence I may have caused."

Mr Mason hopes to replace Redcar's current Lib Dem MP, Ian Swales, who is standing down.

 

[Tetchytyke]

probably Bradford East although trying to predict the politics of that city is a dangerous game.

I'm really not sure what will happen with that seat. Many white working-class in Bradford don't vote Labour because they're seen as an Islamic party in Bradford, yet many Islamic people still won't vote Labour because of the Iraq war (though refusing war in Syria may change this for Miliband). There is no Conservative candidate standing this time around, so the more middle-class people in Idle and Thackley will probably go towards the Lib Dems. I'd expect them to hold it, but it'll be close.

Bradford South might also be interesting with Gerry Sutcliffe standing down.

 

[MidnightFlyer]

http://www.lbc.co.uk/incredibly-awkward-interview-with-natalie-bennett-105384#KBiswSjQ6LtMIy9D.97

Superb.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Clearly very nervous, probably needs a bit more media training on how to deal with presenters out with a "skewering" agenda. It's not easy at all.

Typical of the right-wing shock jock Nick Ferrari to milk it for all its worth though. Odd how he never speaks to his beloved Boris in that manner, isn't it.

 

[ainsworth74]

I don't know I would have thought she'd be able to put a price tag on how much 500,000 homes will cost to build and how much their main source of funding would raise towards that total. The interviewer might have had an agenda (I don't list to LBC so can't comment) but reading the transcript it isn't good that she can't put figures to it.

 

[Tetchytyke]

I don't know I would have thought she'd be able to put a price tag on how much 500,000 homes will cost to build and how much their main source of funding would raise towards that total.

She did, albeit nervously and with a stammer. Nick Ferrari simply chose to mock the costings.

There are many variables as to how much the building would cost- where you build, what you build, whether you have a mixed development with more expensive commercial houses, what you build with, etc etc.

I don't think £2.5bn will pay for all the capital investment required, but working with the private sector in mixed developments it will be a good start (I'd probably expect that number of houses to cost £10-15bn in total, which compared with £80-100bn for HS2 isn't that bad at all). Southwark LBC sold the Heygate Estate to Lend Lease for £50m, so land doesn't have to be that expensive.

 

[ainsworth74]

I get what you mean. Sounds like she just needs to work on her radio persona then!

 

[Busaholic]

Anyone else prepared to stick their neck out and predict the General Election result? For what it's worth i.e. nothing here are my thoughts:-

Labour to be the largest party, beating the Conservatives by 8-10 seats, including the retention of 8-10 seats in Scotland
Lib Dems to be reduced to 10-12 seats, including 2 to 4 in Scotland
Greens 2 or 3 seats including one in Bristol: a third might be Sheffield Hallam if enough students get registered there
UKIP 4-6 seats, inc one in Greater Manchester and , just possibly one in Yorkshire, Carswell will hold his seat but Reckless will be defeated. I'm also prepared to bet Farage does NOT get in, but that may be perceived as personal bias
Egorge Galloway and the Disrespect Party probably will have the postal vote sewn up in that Bradford seat but the majority will be slashed from the bye-election (please!)
SNP to get the other Scottish seats, tho Cons might retain one
Northern Ireland politics I take no interest in and make no predictions

Anyone else sticking their neck above the parapet at this stage?

Oh, and Nick Clegg to lose his seat and not to seek re-election: ironically, Proportional Representation would definitely see him lose it, but he still has a chance with first-past-the-post.

 

[ainsworth74]

Sure I said this earlier on the thread but as you've asked

Labour to be largest party but without a working majority (probably about fifteen seats short). The Conservatives to lose ground but not dramatically and UKIP will end up with three or four seats (including one from Labour). Lib Dems to be reduced to around ten seats and Nick Clegg will lose his seat. Greens to also end up on around three or four. SNP to take all but around ten Scottish seats (Labour to have the rest and maybe one or two Lib Dems).

Labour will form a government but with no formal coalition but will be leaning on the SNP/Plaid Cymru/various NI parties to support them which will probably mean a lot of horse trading to get things done. My concern is that in this situation it would be hard, without repealing the relevant legislation, to go to the public again in six or so months for Labour to try and get a majority which means we may be stuck with a weak government for the full five years.

 

[GrimsbyPacer]

I guess much of that prediction is fair. I don't see why you called the Respect party Disrespect though.

On Ukip I'm quite scared that they will get Grimsby.
In the EU elections Grimsby was the only place where most votes were for Ukip.
The local Labour council is hated by most over the "crazy paving" scandal.
Greens should get more than Ukip however nationally. They have more members and more supporters. Just the media ignores them and focuses on Ukip.
I think Labour's loss of Scottish seats won't be bad for them.
SNP won't help Tories and Labour may snatch Lib Dem seats.
The Lib Dems will never lose Orkney seat by the way.
The Grimsby MP(standing down) has said Labour could put in a "raving alcoholic... (more terms not suitable for this site)" and would win the seat. This isn't going down well with voters.
Locally TUSC are not standing as they think another election will follow.

I am worried the papers will try to influence the election.

 

[ExRes]

Anyone else prepared to stick their neck out and predict the General Election result? For what it's worth i.e. nothing here are my thoughts:-

Labour to be the largest party, beating the Conservatives by 8-10 seats, including the retention of 8-10 seats in Scotland
Lib Dems to be reduced to 10-12 seats, including 2 to 4 in Scotland
Greens 2 or 3 seats including one in Bristol: a third might be Sheffield Hallam if enough students get registered there
UKIP 4-6 seats, inc one in Greater Manchester and , just possibly one in Yorkshire, Carswell will hold his seat but Reckless will be defeated. I'm also prepared to bet Farage does NOT get in, but that may be perceived as personal bias
Egorge Galloway and the Disrespect Party probably will have the postal vote sewn up in that Bradford seat but the majority will be slashed from the bye-election (please!)
SNP to get the other Scottish seats, tho Cons might retain one
Northern Ireland politics I take no interest in and make no predictions

Anyone else sticking their neck above the parapet at this stage?

Oh, and Nick Clegg to lose his seat and not to seek re-election: ironically, Proportional Representation would definitely see him lose it, but he still has a chance with first-past-the-post.

You expect Labour to be the largest party even though you think SNP will take most of the seats in Scotland, you certainly see Conservatives losing an awful lot of seats then
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I guess much of that prediction is fair. I don't see why you called the Respect party Disrespect though.

On Ukip I'm quite scared that they will get Grimsby.
In the EU elections Grimsby was the only place where most votes were for Ukip.
The local Labour council is hated by most over the "crazy paving" scandal.
Greens should get more than Ukip however nationally. They have more members and more supporters. Just the media ignores them and focuses on Ukip.
I think Labour's loss of Scottish seats won't be bad for them.
SNP won't help Tories and Labour may snatch Lib Dem seats.
The Lib Dems will never lose Orkney seat by the way.
The Grimsby MP(standing down) has said Labour could put in a "raving alcoholic... (more terms not suitable for this site)" and would win the seat. This isn't going down well with voters.
Locally TUSC are not standing as they think another election will follow.

I am worried the papers will try to influence the election.

I dare say that 'Disrespect' is being used in the same way that you continually use 'democrazy'

 

[Butts]

I guess much of that prediction is fair. I don't see why you called the Respect party Disrespect though.

On Ukip I'm quite scared that they will get Grimsby.
In the EU elections Grimsby was the only place where most votes were for Ukip.
The local Labour council is hated by most over the "crazy paving" scandal.
Greens should get more than Ukip however nationally. They have more members and more supporters. Just the media ignores them and focuses on Ukip.
I think Labour's loss of Scottish seats won't be bad for them.
SNP won't help Tories and Labour may snatch Lib Dem seats.
The Lib Dems will never lose Orkney seat by the way.
The Grimsby MP(standing down) has said Labour could put in a "raving alcoholic... (more terms not suitable for this site)" and would win the seat. This isn't going down well with voters.
Locally TUSC are not standing as they think another election will follow.

I am worried the papers will try to influence the election.

I take it you mean Orkney and Shetland

Ref Grimsby - good old Austin Mitchell. I'm old enough to remember when he was a TV Presenter.

He wrote a good book after Michael Foot's disastrous candidature in the 1983 Election - something about their manifesto being The Longest Suicide Note in History.

 

[Busaholic]

I take it you mean Orkney and Shetland

Ref Grimsby - good old Austin Mitchell. I'm old enough to remember when he was a TV Presenter.

He wrote a good book after Michael Foot's disastrous candidature in the 1983 Election - something about their manifesto being The Longest Suicide Note in History.

No, it was Gerald Kaufman (to be Father of the House in the next Parliament, assuming the electors of Manchester, Gorton play ball) who made that statement, but then Kaufman has always detested the left of his party.

On Orkney and Shetland, I've been to Shetland once , in 1971, and was told very forcefully by locals 'we're British, not Scottish: we are further from Edinburgh than London is and have no wish to be ruled from there'. SNP therefore stand no chance there and I'd be surprised if Charles Kennedy lost the Western Isles, especially as he was the only LD MP who didnt support them going into coalition with the Tories.

As an aside, Kaufman wrote a book in the 1970s called 'How to be a minister' for which he'd had a brief taste at a junior level in the Labour governments from 1974.

 

[Butts]

No, it was Gerald Kaufman (to be Father of the House in the next Parliament, assuming the electors of Manchester, Gorton play ball) who made that statement, but then Kaufman has always detested the left of his party.

On Orkney and Shetland, I've been to Shetland once , in 1971, and was told very forcefully by locals 'we're British, not Scottish: we are further from Edinburgh than London is and have no wish to be ruled from there'. SNP therefore stand no chance there and I'd be surprised if Charles Kennedy lost the Western Isles, especially as he was the only LD MP who didnt support them going into coalition with the Tories.

As an aside, Kaufman wrote a book in the 1970s called 'How to be a minister' for which he'd had a brief taste at a junior level in the Labour governments from 1974.

Sorry, Austins book was entitled "Four Years in the Death of The Labour Party"

The last time Orkney and Shetland had a non-Liberal MP was at the 1945 Election when a certain Sir Basil Hamilton Hebden Neven-Spence (what a monicker) won the seat for The Unionists (Conservatives).

 

[DownSouth]

The last time Orkney and Shetland had a non-Liberal MP was at the 1945 Election when a certain Sir Basil Hamilton Hebden Neven-Spence (what a monicker) won the seat for The Unionists (Conservatives).

Really? I would have assumed anyone with a name like that would have been a Labour member.

[/sarcasm]

 

[ExRes]

Really? I would have assumed anyone with a name like that would have been a Labour member.

[/sarcasm]

You assume that a persons name dictates their politics then ?, perhaps if Tony Benn had gone under the name of Sir Anthony Neil Wedgwood Benn he wouldn't have been a Labour loyalist for his entire political life

 

[ainsworth74]

Did you miss the sarcasm tag?

 

[ExRes]

Did you miss the sarcasm tag?

Indeed not, I'm sure you'll appreciate that sarcasm has more than one form

 

[Butts]

You assume that a persons name dictates their politics then ?, perhaps if Tony Benn had gone under the name of Sir Anthony Neil Wedgwood Benn he wouldn't have been a Labour loyalist for his entire political life

Viscount Stansgate which he was before renouncing his title to enter the Commons would have been even better

 

[Bishopstone]

I'm quite convinced all this talk of the LibDems going down to 10-12 seats is way wide of the mark. The man in Eastbourne, who took the seat from the Tories last time, is a case in point: a 5-year whirlwind of self-publicity and attaching himself to every local campaign, even when those campaigns were for objectives contrary to Government policy. I think he's a blessed nuisance, but a great number of folk worship the ground on which he treads.

I would be surprised if the LibDems finish with less than 35 MPs.