First off some housekeeping - I was Chairman of SARPA between 1999 and 2012 which is the RUG for the Cambrian Mainline and Tywyn. Between 2002 & 2005 I was a committee member of the Rail Passenger Council for Wales. I do not speak for SARPA but I know whats going on.
The organization which has canvassed the WG Minister and got the meetings and funding for first a survey,done the survey and then got the decision from the Minister is the Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth Line Liaison Committee which consists of representatives from the local authority's, town and community councils, Aberystwyth University, SARPA and Carno Station Action Group. Local MP's and AM's are invited and kept informed of minutes etc. NR, ATW & BTP are invited to there meetings to give reports take feedback and answer questions. The Chair of Committee is a Labour Councillor from Shrewsbury and the Secretary the town clerk of Welshpool, neither of whom are SARPA members. Clearly there are some leading lights in this and not all politicians or councils contribute as much as others but that's life.
Whats known as the Cambrian hourly service was not and never has been SARPA's idea. In 1997 we were campaigning primarily about overcrowding and trying to get then 0855 arrival into Shrewsbury earlier for commuters. CT said they might find a 153 for summer 1998. We thought if it goes back and forth the whole way a couple of times it wont make much impact. The eastern section is always busier so we though why doesn't the 153 attach/detach at Newtown so the extra capacity is kept where its most needed, you couldn't just leave a unit unattended it would need a crew then we thought why doesn't the 153 shuttle back and forth between Newtown and Shrewsbury between existing trains. CT said they liked the idea. Then instead of implementing we had the DBRW/WDA wanting more trains over the whole line which resulted in local politicians getting involved and the "hourly service" was announced in Dec 99. So we went from a low cost trial that might prove the way for further improvements to something needing expensive infrastructure and lots of extra units. So instead of incremental improvements on the Cambrian mainline we've had 15 years of stakeholders in Ceredigion calling for all way to Aber in one go. Once this hourly service gene got out the bottle its been impossible to get it back in and think incrementally. SARPA's achievable idea was hijacked by "stakeholders" into something that's taken a decade and a half plus.
TDK-
is your allegation that the Line Liaison Committee has conspired with WG and ATW to rob a train from the Wrexham line or is it that they've been naive and inadvertently forced the situation?
There have been points in the time frame of the Wales and Border franchise where there has been opportunity to get said stock.
- WG funded two extra 158's above the franchise agreement in 2007 specially to deal with Cambrian over crowding but ATW stretched the franchise boundary to BHM INTL in 2008 needing 2 extra units to do so.
- ATW were sub leasing 5 Class 150's to FGW at one point also
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- Virgins high frequency tt launch in 2008 when there was opportunity to assess its impact on existing services patterns along the North Wales Coast was never taken just extra trains piled on top of one another.
- ATW seemed confident that they had the extra stock to run there proposed Marylebone service didn't they?
As to your assessment of demand on the Cambrian, average loadings on Cambrian mainline trains are above the UK national average and two and half that the ATW average. We know through local knowledge and the 2014 survey that theirs latent untapped demand into Shrewsbury from the Upper Severn Valley in the AM and in the return direction in the PM. Personally I would have been happy with an extra 0630 & 0830 departure from Aberystwyth and 1630 & 1830 departures from Shrewsbury as a start. However what we've got has been influenced by the Ceredigion stakeholders and the need to include them.
When I started out in 1997 there was no empirical evidence to say what happens to rural lines when you double there frequency. Thankfully in England there are several lines that have done this and it can be proven that the answer is a 58% increase on average in the first 3 years after implementation. This provable fact was used in the case to WG.