Carmarthen to Aberystwyth Reopening?

[Gareth Marston]

Indeed, my knowledge of your wonderful country is very good going from north Wales as far south as Aberystwyth, but with the exception of Cardiff itself, there it ends. This was one reason in 2014 in an attempt to belatedly garner some knowledge at the ripe old age of 69, my good lady wife and I based ourselves in a good hotel in Porthcawl and spent the best part of a fortnight visiting a different area each day. I was quite impressed by the new bus station in Swansea. I spent some time in Brecon seeking out what were the former stations there.

A long distance coach on a twisty turny rural cart track with Tarmac on it and A road status is still a grim experience over any distance. Aberystwyth's bus station is right outside the station so physical integration with rail is quite good unlike in Powys. There has been roughly a Hal hourly service down the coast to Aberaeron which then splits with one an hour via Lampeter to Carmarthan and one an hour down the coast to Cardigan. So in theory the buses are quite good and tick the boxes.

 

[merlodlliw]

A long distance coach on a twisty turny rural cart track with Tarmac on it and A road status is still a grim experience over any distance. Aberystwyth's bus station is right outside the station so physical integration with rail is quite good unlike in Powys. There has been roughly a Hal hourly service down the coast to Aberaeron which then splits with one an hour via Lampeter to Carmarthan and one an hour down the coast to Cardigan. So in theory the buses are quite good and tick the boxes.

Reminds me of the closure of the Ruabon to Barmouth line, part of it is reopened by volunteers, but it wont go any further than Corwen.

Arriva bus Wales(DB owned) pulled the plug on the Wrexham to Barmouth route a year ago,the new bus Company on the route has expanded with more services with support of WG,the track bed is still there in places,but no one has even thought of running trains again between Corwen & Barmouth, again this line closed due to lack of passengers. The interchange on the line is either Wrexham/Ruabon or Barmouth.
I also wonder of the 100 present at the meeting, how many would actually use the train on the line, or indeed use the train at all,we are building up to elections,I wonder will this line be in Plaids manifesto?.

 

[21C101]

It does though have a potent political raison d'etre - allowing trans Wales services wholly within Wales (although you would also need to reopen Afon Wen to Bangor)

 

[Chester1]

It does though have a potent political raison d'etre - allowing trans Wales services wholly within Wales (although you would also need to reopen Afon Wen to Bangor)

Bangor-Afon Wen would have a much better business case. I suspect the Bangor-Canarnfon bit would have a good business case as there is a regular bus service between the two and its short enough for a hourly shuttle service to be run with one DMU or even EMU. The rest of the route is very rural though and would just be a link between North Wales and Cambrian lines.

 

[Greenback]

I think Afon Wen to Bangor would have a better business case than Carmarthen to Aberystwyth. I agree with the suggestions that Plaid may see this as a good battleground in which to gain votes in the area.

 

[21C101]

Bangor-Afon Wen would have a much better business case. I suspect the Bangor-Canarnfon bit would have a good business case as there is a regular bus service between the two and its short enough for a hourly shuttle service to be run with one DMU or even EMU. The rest of the route is very rural though and would just be a link between North Wales and Cambrian lines.

But would a business case come into it (other than being massaged to get the answer you want. The reason for reopening Bangor - Afon Wen and Aberystwyth - Carmarthen would be to provide a domestic cross Wales route and develop the economy in West Wales. Thats political/Strategic.

It does happen though. Look at the Western Rail Corridor in RoI. That must have had a worse business than Carmarthen - Aberystwyth but it reopened from Limerick to Galway, with the rest planned to reopen.

 

[Chester1]

But would a business case come into it (other than being massaged to get the answer you want. The reason for reopening Bangor - Afon Wen and Aberystwyth - Carmarthen would be to provide a domestic cross Wales route and develop the economy in West Wales. Thats political/Strategic.

It does happen though. Look at the Western Rail Corridor in RoI. That must have had a worse business than Carmarthen - Aberystwyth but it reopened from Limerick to Galway, with the rest planned to reopen.

Borders Rail is a better comparison - decent business case but really done for political reasons. Aber - Carmarthen would be totally unviable without 10s of thousands of houses being built along the route and line speeds being fast enough to commute to Swansea, which would require an upgrade of the existing line). There are some limits to how far politics can trump economic realities. If there is a north-south link project then phase one will be Bangor-Carnafon, followed by extension to Afon Wen. Aber-Carmarthen would be the last bit to be done.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I think Afon Wen to Bangor would have a better business case than Carmarthen to Aberystwyth. I agree with the suggestions that Plaid may see this as a good battleground in which to gain votes in the area.

Ceredigion is Plaid at the Bay Lib Dem at Westminster and is Plaids top target in May. The Lib Dem MP campaigns for the restoration of through London trains from Aberystwyth and Plaid want to rebuild a railway south to Carmarthen. I suppose there's a new thread in competing candidates rail proposals.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

I think Afon Wen to Bangor would have a better business case than Carmarthen to Aberystwyth. I agree with the suggestions that Plaid may see this as a good battleground in which to gain votes in the area.

I agree (as I often do with your comments !) - this would offer some very good "connectivity" - making places such as Harlech / Portmadoc much better connected via the North Wales Coast services to "that there England" - as opposed to a very circuitous and slow journey on the lovely Cambrian section.

Someone called it - I think the FR (or is it FfR ?) - the top NW corner of Wales.

 

[Phil from Mon]

I agree (as I often do with your comments !) - this would offer some very good "connectivity" - making places such as Harlech / Portmadoc much better connected via the North Wales Coast services to "that there England" - as opposed to a very circuitous and slow journey on the lovely Cambrian section.

Which is why many people on Llyn choose to drive to Cardiff when they have to go rather than drive to Bangor and get the train. Things might be better if the facilities on the trains were suitable for a long-distance journey that people might want to work on, but that won't happen until the next franchise.

 

[341o2]

Reminds me of the story about the meeting to protest at the planned closure of the Lynton and Barnstaple. Turned out not a single person had travelled to the meeting by train...

If my memory is right, I recall that a meeting proposing to close the L&B was held, and a group formed to oppose closure which arrived by road. Hardly a good advertisment

So many "last days" of rail services so well patronised that if some of those attending had actually used the trains prior to closure, some services at least might still be with us today. So often ignored until "they" are going to take away "our" railway

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Which is why many people on Llyn choose to drive to Cardiff when they have to go rather than drive to Bangor and get the train. Things might be better if the facilities on the trains were suitable for a long-distance journey that people might want to work on, but that won't happen until the next franchise.

Not sure what your expectations are - but I would think a 175 is a pretty decent train ....(personally)

 

[Greenback]

Not sure what your expectations are - but I would think a 175 is a pretty decent train ....(personally)

I agree. I've taken a 175 from Holyhead to Cardiff as well as from Llanelli to Manchester regularly and I love the 175's. As far as I'm concerned, they are better than HST's as far as the travelling environment goes.

But back on topic, I feel a bit sorry for the campaigners, as they will be courted by politicians until the election is over, when they will probably be abandoned and the Aber to Carmarthen reopening plans will be forgotten about outside the area.

 

[Phil from Mon]

Not sure what your expectations are - but I would think a 175 is a pretty decent train ....(personally)

But no power or wifi on ours, and iffy trolley catering. For example last month I went to Cardiff mid morning, was told by the trolley person passing Abergele that if I wanted a sandwich there was just one (dreadful) one left, but a whole new supply came on at Shrewsbury. It is though the lack of power that makes it impossible to work, if we only had that more people would use the trains I am sure.

Anyway, enough of that, and sorry to have veered off!

 

[merlodlliw]

Which is why many people on Llyn choose to drive to Cardiff when they have to go rather than drive to Bangor and get the train. Things might be better if the facilities on the trains were suitable for a long-distance journey that people might want to work on, but that won't happen until the next franchise.

Suppose Gerald, put on for this very reason, and Wagair, don't count then?

 

[Phil from Mon]

Suppose Gerald,put on for this very reason and Wagair, dont count then,

To drive from Pwllheli to Cardiff is 4 hours. To travel on Gerald (which is great for us on Anglesey or along the coast, but is only once a day) you would need to leave Pwllheli at 4.45 to allow time for parking etc in Bangor, that means up not much after 4, and up to an hour earlier if you are further down Llyn. If I was living there I'd rather stay in bed an extra hour and drive down. Again, the flight is only (I stand to be corrected on this) one in the morning and one evening, and is pricey. We are not encouraged to use it by our finance people. And of course it does not take you into central Cardiff but dumps you a long way out.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I agree. I've taken a 175 from Holyhead to Cardiff as well as from Llanelli to Manchester regularly and I love the 175's. As far as I'm concerned, they are better than HST's as far as the travelling environment goes.

But back on topic, I feel a bit sorry for the campaigners, as they will be courted by politicians until the election is over, when they will probably be abandoned and the Aber to Carmarthen reopening plans will be forgotten about outside the area.

Assembly Election next year as well as Westminster this Greenback!

 

[Greenback]

I was conscious of both, and probably should have added an 's' to election!

 

[krus_aragon]

I was conscious of both, and probably should have added an 's' to election!

A shame many voters feel there isn't a very good selection of candidates... :P

</coat>

 

[Greenback]

No, don't get your coat, it gave me a giggle!

I can't see any reopenings any time soon. Even if it were agreed that there was a sound business case, which is extremely unlikely, and that the money could be found in the present climate, (even more unlikely!), there would still be opposition to lines being rebuilt, as with the WHR, and the public inquiries could drag on for years.

I don;t think that any government, whether in Cardiff or in London, would be keen on taking on such a set of challenges, even if the scheme wasn't an economic basket case.

 

[nuneatonmark]

No, don't get your coat, it gave me a giggle!

I can't see any reopenings any time soon. Even if it were agreed that there was a sound business case, which is extremely unlikely, and that the money could be found in the present climate, (even more unlikely!), there would still be opposition to lines being rebuilt, as with the WHR, and the public inquiries could drag on for years.

I don;t think that any government, whether in Cardiff or in London, would be keen on taking on such a set of challenges, even if the scheme wasn't an economic basket case.

Maybe the welsh people should be asked if they want a tax rise to fund the re-opening of the Aber-Camarthen route plus maybe others! I can imagine their answer.

 

[Greenback]

While Welsh people like myself might well agree with a rise in some type of taxes, or a complete overhaul of the tax system here with end result that we pay more, i'm pretty sure that improvements to the NHS and council services across the country would be what people would want to happen, not a railway that would benefit very few.

 

[D6975]

Looking at the Bangor Afon Wen stretch, getting through Caernarfon would be a bit of a problem, the A487 has pinched the trackbed. Sorting out a new way of threading through town would probably be very expensive. Just going to Caernarfon wouldn't be too bad, you could have a station about half a mile north of the town centre, just past Morrisons.

And yes, I do realise that the A487 is on the trackbed further north as well, but this isn't in built up areas so wouldn't be as expensive/difficult.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

It would be a lovely journey if it ever was reopened, though it'd be slow. I can't see there ever being a business case for it though. If the route had escaped closure it would have likely been severely rationalised, and probably been converted to RETB along with the Cambrian lines. This would have brought costs down a fair bit, so if it was still in place with a service level similar to the HOWL, I imagine it would see similar usage and similar calls for services to be improved. Building all that up from nothing though would be difficult, and a reopened route would likely need to have a higher service level (can't imagine any government spending £millions on a line and then providing only 3 trains a day!). Besides, everything would probably have to be 'gold-plated' at least in comparison to how it would be had it never closed.

 

[D1009]

To drive from Pwllheli to Cardiff is 4 hours. To travel on Gerald (which is great for us on Anglesey or along the coast, but is only once a day) you would need to leave Pwllheli at 4.45 to allow time for parking etc in Bangor, that means up not much after 4, and up to an hour earlier if you are further down Llyn. If I was living there I'd rather stay in bed an extra hour and drive down. Again, the flight is only (I stand to be corrected on this) one in the morning and one evening, and is pricey. We are not encouraged to use it by our finance people. And of course it does not take you into central Cardiff but dumps you a long way out.

Are you suggesting there are a significant number of people who regularly travel from the Lleyn Peninsula to Cardiff?

 

[Phil from Mon]

Are you suggesting there are a significant number of people who regularly travel from the Lleyn Peninsula to Cardiff?

Not huge numbers, no, but anyone in middle or higher levels of the public or third sectors, and good numbers of business people, particularly those in the "representative" organisations like FSB etc, increasingly needs to travel to Cardiff more or less frequently, and that is likely to increase with further devolution. Plus of course, all those from Anglesey and along the Coast, as mentioned several times.

 

[Blamethrower]

Please can someone name me a railway built in this country whereby the business case "stacked up"?

My point is that there has never really been a valid business case for any railway yet historically, towns have grown around stations. Can someone perhaps explain this?

Please can someone clarify why this would not be the case today and why planners are so intent on creating a "sound business case" when it will always look poor value for money whatever project you are doing?

Realistically, when any manager looks at it, they will always say "we're not going to get any return on this". Is it not time to return to historical thinking when it comes to re-opening/building new lines?

 

[Greenback]

Please can someone name me a railway built in this country whereby the business case "stacked up"?

I have read that the Llanelli Docks Railway was very profitable indeed in its early years (I haven't got beyond Chapter 4 yet().

More seriously, the reopening stop Aberdare and Maesteg are generally seen as a huge success, but the track was already there, freight had been running on it, and the decline of industry had meant that there was a greater need than ever to link these towns with Cardiff.

None of these factors apply to Carmarthen - Aberystwyth.

My point is that there has never really been a valid business case for any railway yet historically, towns have grown around stations. Can someone perhaps explain this?

I'll try! There was a business case for railways long before such terms were coined. They were first constructed to bring minerals to onward transportation (ship) in a more economic and efficient manner than dragging them across dirt and mud. At first they were horse powered, then once the steam engine had been invented, things moved on a bit. The point is that at the time there no alternatives, so the business case would have been very strong indeed, had anyone done such a thing.

Please can someone clarify why this would not be the case today and why planners are so intent on creating a "sound business case" when it will always look poor value for money whatever project you are doing?

Things are very different today. We all demand value for money, so a way has been devised to try and gauge that when it comes to large projects like reopening or rebuilding a line. They are not perfect by any means, and the methods used are always under debate, but they do serve a purpose.

The total cost also comes into things. It may simply be unaffordable, even if it has a good business case or Benefits:Costs ratio (BCR).

In the case of this particular scheme, i think it would come in as unaffordable int he current climate as well as having a very poor BCR.

Realistically, when any manager looks at it, they will always say "we're not going to get any return on this". Is it not time to return to historical thinking when it comes to re-opening/building new lines?

During the age of Railway Mania, many lines were built that shouldn't have been, but there was little planning or control over such things. Some lines and companies were hopelessly in debt from the start, and their whole case was built on business that wasn't really there. They were quickly swallowed up by bigger companies in many cases, who attempted to improve the finances through economies of scale and connectivity with other lines.

I hope that's not the type of historical thinking you want to see making a comeback!

 

[CardiffKid]

The SoS for Wales has just told MPs that he is shortly to meet with the campaign group to discuss the business case.

 

[LateThanNever]

Please can someone name me a railway built in this country whereby the business case "stacked up"?

My point is that there has never really been a valid business case for any railway yet historically, towns have grown around stations. Can someone perhaps explain this?

Please can someone clarify why this would not be the case today and why planners are so intent on creating a "sound business case" when it will always look poor value for money whatever project you are doing?

Realistically, when any manager looks at it, they will always say "we're not going to get any return on this". Is it not time to return to historical thinking when it comes to re-opening/building new lines?

How very true.
The railways were notoriously speculative and put the turnpike trusts and canals out of business, often without themselves making a profit, then the parishes got lumbered with the roads again and basically still are. (Getting the parishes to make a profit didn't come into it!)
Iteresting road history http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rc...e7gdAD&usg=AFQjCNEf7IQ3-7FnsZ3DmbyGkdWwV17a3Q
Both road and rail must be seen as engines of growth and (as rail is greener, and also more able to encourage walking/exercise) rail should be the preference! I think with the government currently able to borrow money for free we should be building infrastructure as investment for economic prosperity. The operating expenses are the bit that has to be properly managed to wipe its face. On this basis we are probably much better to try and build new modern alignments (likely to be cheaper to maintain) than simply to resurrect old routes.