Virgin / Stagecoach win East Coast

[LNW-GW Joint]

On another note, would Stagecoach having the East Coast mainline effect Midland mainline routes where they overlap?
I wouldn't be surprised if the Leeds and Lincoln services are scrapped. As they would be competing with themselves.

No. They are different franchises/contracts. Leeds and Lincoln are EMT franchise commitments.
The "competition" thing is illusory. The DfT determines services, not Stagecoach.
In any case EMT is up for refranchising in 2017, and there will be a new service spec (and Stagecoach may not win).

Having said that, EMT is only in Leeds because its stock is maintained there. Electrification may change all that.
Lincoln-St Pancras through services might also not survive electrification unless the franchise gets IEPs.

 

[Class 170101]

I think Lincoln is a franchise commitment but I would be surprised if Leeds is. As noted above, Leeds is only served by EMT to access Neville Hill Depot.

 

[Chris125]

What would haul them though? Are Mk4s compatible with anything other than 91s?

Depending on the modifications needed, use them in HSTs? Would avoid the need to refurbish mk3s with power doors etc.

 

[shinkansen1966]

May be I'm a bit late to this but...

The are some pretty heroic financial figures involved with the new Stagecoach/Virgin bid.

Over the last 5 years, East Coast trains have given £1 billion to the Treasury.
Over the next 8 years, the new franchise has promised £2.3 billion (in today's prices).

 

[WatcherZero]

That's with the expectation of something like a 50% increase in capacity and a doubling of passenger revenue.

 

[shinkansen1966]

That's with the expectation of something like a 50% increase in capacity and a doubling of passenger revenue.

So they expect to double revenue on a 50% increase is passenger numbers ?

Does that mean some inflation busting fares rises ? Or fewer advance purchase tickets for sale ? Or other means of raising revenue faster than passenger numbers ?

 

[Deerfold]

So they expect to double revenue on a 50% increase is passenger numbers ?

Does that mean some inflation busting fares rises ? Or fewer advance purchase tickets for sale ? Or other means of raising revenue faster than passenger numbers ?

Yes. Or cost cutting. Or a mixture of all of the above.

 

[WatcherZero]

And increasing loadings, more bums on seats. 100% of existing seats wont be going filled even before capacity increase. If they were say 60% full at the moment on average and you increased available seats by 50% then you can double passengers and still have spare capacity.

 

[gordonthemoron]

East Coast always seems busier to me than West Coast (Virgin)

 

[shinkansen1966]

Yes. Or cost cutting. Or a mixture of all of the above.

Hence East Coast Rewards to be axed and replaced by a lousy Nectar scheme.

 

[WatcherZero]

East Coast always seems busier to me than West Coast (Virgin)

2007 was the last time it was generated for East Coast so bit out of date, but in that year was WCML 51%, MML 28% and ECML 43%.

 

[Deerfold]

And increasing loadings, more bums on seats. 100% of existing seats wont be going filled even before capacity increase. If they were say 60% full at the moment on average and you increased available seats by 50% then you can double passengers and still have spare capacity.

Hopefully that'll be at off-peak times. I catch plenty of full EC services during the peak, whilst late evenings they can be 25% full.

 

[gordonthemoron]

mind Virgin are crap at filling their trains, expensive advance fares and largely empty trains. These days I generally buy tickets from Virgin because:

1. get nectar rewards on tickets which cost less than £20
2. can get half price off peak singles online

 

[E-Rail]

I think this franchise may be have been holed below the waterline by events before it has even begun. If, as analysts are predicting, fuel drops back to below £1 a litre at the pumps in the spring, then doubling annual revenue to meet the premium payments will be impossible as Stagecoach will find themselves on the wrong end of a mass modal shift, not only with EC but also across the UK Bus Division.

Stagecoach once said they wouldn't 'bet the farm' to retain SWT but that seems to be exactly what they have done with East Coast.

 

[northwichcat]

mind Virgin are crap at filling their trains, expensive advance fares and largely empty trains.

Virgin are an illogical operator. In Europe you'd pay more to travel on an Intercity train than a regional/local one. With Virgin it's the reverse.

Chester to Manchester is £17.10 for an Anytime Day Return. For a Virgin only Anytime Day Return it's £13.00

Crewe to Manchester is £14.60 for an Anytime Day Return. For a Virgin only Anytime Day Return it's £11.00

However, if you think Virgin's Advance fares are high then I think you'd have a heart attack if you saw the TPE or XC ones. Knutsford to London (set by Virgin) starts at just £14 for an Advance single - that's the cheapest journey in pence per mile I can find from my local station. I had to pay £10.40 for a single between Chester and Knutsford (set by Northern) the other day for which I had the luxury of a Northern 150 on which the seats had been replaced 15 years ago - no seriously that is luxury for the line I was travelling on.

 

[Rick1984]

Having traveled to and from East of England for various reasons throughout my life; I'd like to see more Glasgow services. 10 cars splitting at Edinburgh , with an EMU going to Glasgow and a bi-mode going North.
Changing at Waverly can be a pain, as if you miss one Glasgow train the next might be other side of station, not to mention the platform numbering!

Also on the matter of Pendilinos, while they have there faults, in theory they would be able to travel faster north of Durham, with the necessary clearance, due to tilting ability. Though in cab signalling could increase line speed to 140mph earlier in route to achieve similar time saving.

 

[Deerfold]

Having traveled to and from East of England for various reasons throughout my life; I'd like to see more Glasgow services. 10 cars splitting at Edinburgh , with an EMU going to Glasgow and a bi-mode going North.
Changing at Waverly can be a pain, as if you miss one Glasgow train the next might be other side of station, not to mention the platform numbering!

I doubt they'll be back, having been split off to XC fairly recently - with all the ways of getting between Edinburgh and Glasgow EC are unlikely to get a large market share without deep discounting.

Also on the matter of Pendilinos, while they have there faults, in theory they would be able to travel faster north of Durham, with the necessary clearance, due to tilting ability. Though in cab signalling could increase line speed to 140mph earlier in route to achieve similar time saving.

Still can't see there being any on EC - not with IEP on the way.

 

[Rick1984]

Not saying they should. Just making a point

 

[gordonthemoron]

as an example of virgin's illogical advance fares:

6:15 Milton Keynes-Crewe £56.50
6:23 Milton Keynes-Crewe £26.50

Neither train is very busy although if anything the later train is the busier, they arrive at crewe within 3 minutes of eacch other

 

[GrimsbyPacer]

as an example of virgin's illogical advance fares:

6:15 Milton Keynes-Crewe £56.50
6:23 Milton Keynes-Crewe £26.50

Neither train is very busy although if anything the later train is the busier, they arrive at crewe within 3 minutes of eacch other

That's the silliest fares I've seen!

 

[Starmill]

That's the silliest fares I've seen!

It's related to lots of very odd things. The way they set their fare quotas has this certain 'feel' to it, which prevents people from getting really good deals unless you're really in touch with it. The differential there will be related to the final destinations of the trains and which route they take. This is where they set their quotas on, and they are very bad at doing it to fill seats on shoulder-peak trains. But some might say that this isn't their aim, their aim is to make themselves look good. If you search carefully carefully, good things can be had. I recently got myself a £31.50 1st Advance on a London to Shrewsbury journey, which is the lowest tier and includes breakfast onboard.

 

[RichmondCommu]

Yes. Or cost cutting. Or a mixture of all of the above.

One would think that the new trains would be a fair bit cheaper to run in terms of maintenance which should in turn help to reduce costs.

 

[hairyhandedfool]

Virgin are an illogical operator. In Europe you'd pay more to travel on an Intercity train than a regional/local one. With Virgin it's the reverse....

Europe doesn't have the same railway, and fares, structure.

....Chester to Manchester is £17.10 for an Anytime Day Return. For a Virgin only Anytime Day Return it's £13.00....

The 'Any Permitted' fare is set by Arriva. Given the route in question has a fast direct service (run by Arriva), that takes about an hour, a slow direct service (run by Northern), that takes around an hour and a half, and Virgin's service with a change at Crewe, taking around an hour and ten minutes, I'd suggest Virgin get very little revenue from the 'Any Permitted' fare, even if they sell it. By contrast, the only part of the 'Virgin Only' fare they might not get is sales commission.

....Crewe to Manchester is £14.60 for an Anytime Day Return. For a Virgin only Anytime Day Return it's £11.00....

The 'Any Permitted' fare is set by Northern. That fare is shared between Virgin, Arriva and Northern, who all operate direct services (there are also some XC services but I don't think that would account for much revenue). The 'Virgin Only' fare will get Virgin more revenue as it is only valid on their services, one every hour.

 

[northwichcat]

Stagecoach have announced that David Horne currently MD of EMT will be taking a director role with the new East Coast franchise, while Jake Kelly currently with South West Trains-Network Rail Alliance will take over as MD of EMT.

 

[swt_passenger]

Stagecoach have announced that David Horne currently MD of EMT will be taking a director role with the new East Coast franchise, while Jake Kelly currently with South West Trains-Network Rail Alliance will take over as MD of EMT.

[Joke]

Does that mean that they'll use Meridians on the ECML then?

Perhaps they'll be able to spare Mk4s and 91s for the Corby flyer?

[/Joke]

 

[Mark62]

From what I gather, journey's times will be improved in a few years with them being comparable to what they were 20 years ago. Some of us do have longer memories than others. Let's not forget a test train ran in the 90s and did the London to Edinburgh run in 3hours 27 mins. After all the billions spent on upgrades the new trains won't come anywhere near that. Progress?

 

[class26]

From what I gather, journey's times will be improved in a few years with them being comparable to what they were 20 years ago. Some of us do have longer memories than others. Let's not forget a test train ran in the 90s and did the London to Edinburgh run in 3hours 27 mins. After all the billions spent on upgrades the new trains won't come anywhere near that. Progress?

It`s one thing to do 3 hrs 27 on a special run but to do it every day on regular service ? I`m not sure that billions have been spent on the ECML, more likely on the WCML

 

[samuelmorris]

Dare I bring this up - is there any sort of firm commitment for 140mph operation on the ECML in the distant future? I recall the 800s being designed such that they were capable of it, even if not being delivered in such a condition. That seems a good long-term target to aim for to get journey times down!

 

[Suraggu]

Dare I bring this up - is there any sort of firm commitment for 140mph operation on the ECML in the distant future? I recall the 800s being designed such that they were capable of it, even if not being delivered in such a condition. That seems a good long-term target to aim for to get journey times down!

It's one of the many clauses in the franchise. ERTMS in cab signaling controlled from the RoC in York will allow IEP services to run at 140mph. It is all part of an decrease in journey reductions and creating more capacity.
A few EDB -KGX & LDS -KGX services from 2020 will have a 4hr/2hr journey time respectfully. These will have one calling point most likely NCL for Anglo Scots & Doncaster/Wakefield for West Riding services

 

[Stats]

Dare I bring this up - is there any sort of firm commitment for 140mph operation on the ECML in the distant future? I recall the 800s being designed such that they were capable of it, even if not being delivered in such a condition. That seems a good long-term target to aim for to get journey times down!

I doubt you'll ever see 140mph running on the ECML as long as the eastern arm of HS2 is Government policy. With the regular non stop service to Newcastle from 2019 fastest journey times to Newcastle will fall to being only 15 minutes slower than the quoted HS2 journey time. Remember also that increasing speed disparities between services actually reduces capacity.

Personally I'd like to see linespeeds of 140mph between York and Northallerton, and preferably Darlington if you could remove some of the slow services north of Northallerton.
But I'm not hopeful because as I understand it, it requires significant infrastructure works and not just in cab signalling