IMHO the entire Class 319 fleet if possible if not then a large percentage ought to go north as I'm pretty sure the Thames Valley requires 110mph capable EMUs, so doubtful they be heading there.
110mph running on Thames Valley is a CP6 aspiration. The plan has been 319s for the first few years post-electrification since Lord Adonis announced electrification. The option for going straight to new EMUs was considered but wasn't taken forward.
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I might be wrong but wasn't one requirement of the future Northern franchise was to dispose of the Class 14X fleet?
I think the exact term Stephen Hammond used was - bidders will be required to present options for Pacer replacement.
With the Class 319 fleet moving to Northern, surely this enables a internal cascade to begin the process of disposing of the Class 14X fleet?
Hardly. The Northern and FGW franchises are overdue a combined total of 162 additional carriages, which were due to provide extra capacity needed by December 2012. While TPE did eventually get the 40 additional carriages they were due in CP4 they are now set to lose 18 carriages, so we're up to 180 additional carriages being needed.
Like I've said before any thought of Pacers being withdrawn before December 2018 (when part of North TPE becomes electric) as a result of DMU cascades resulting from electrification is complete fantasy.
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And it's not no growth, because a 319 has more capacity than a 142 or 150.
But a 319 is the same size as the pairs of 150s which operate peak time and some off-peak services between Manchester & Preston. Apparently some Wigan-Liverpool services are 2 x 156s so a 319 will be smaller. Adding capacity to the quieter off-peak services on newly electrified lines won't solve overcrowding problems.
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It was, with view t a fourth car later on if required, and we all know what happened with that.
The same thing that happened with the option for extra 172s for LM.
Really First hasn't had much luck over the years with rolling stock, DFT interference (TP Express, FGE - where the order for Desiros was also cut back by 4 trains) and long drawn out tenders (FGW/FCC)
They did seem to have control over the 175/180 orders and apparently FNW would have got 180s as well as 175s had it not been for the loss of rights to operate their Euston services.
Generally TOCs did seem to have more control of stock a few years earlier. After delivery of 222s First Group were able to send the Hull Trains 170s to Scotrail, while National Express were able to send the MML 170s to CT.
First North Western also took on a loco-hauled set in 2004 to allow First TransPennine Express to sublease 2 x 158s. Then the SRA came along and it's never been the same since - I can't see FGW taking on additional loco-hauled sets next year and subleasing their 180s to FTPE to cover for the loss of 170/3s.