Network Rail confirmed plans for CP5 and aspirations for CP6

[Haydn1971]

Which seems to be a rather long and roundabout way of agreeing with me that the PFI contract is irrelevant to any prospective future order.

Apologies if it is rather long winded... What I am saying is that the 800/801 units are a product of a particular tender/contract, which may not come out as good value if you change the maintenance terms of any new order - but it's also possible also that they could compared to competitive products.

 

[jimm]

Apologies if it is rather long winded... What I am saying is that the 800/801 units are a product of a particular tender/contract, which may not come out as good value if you change the maintenance terms of any new order - but it's also possible also that they could compared to competitive products.

I would think that given the monumental cost of the PFI - a form of funding that MPs on the Commons public accounts committee have slated time after time as being just about the worst value for money possible, especially in the case of hospitals - almost any potential future order financed through a leasing company (and there are plenty of deals now with train maintenance built in) would be far better value for money.

 

[Haydn1971]

Haha... You think ?

Ever considered standing as an MP

 

[TheKnightWho]

I would think that given the monumental cost of the PFI - a form of funding that MPs on the Commons public accounts committee have slated time after time as being just about the worst value for money possible, especially in the case of hospitals - almost any potential future order financed through a leasing company (and there are plenty of deals now with train maintenance built in) would be far better value for money.

I think you massively overestimate the ability of MPs to understand how such a system works...

 

[Class 170101]

But you are relying on a TOC leasing trains that are not suitable for the MML! Why would they want to do that?

Maybe I am, but then it should be pointed out that you are relying on either the new or existing franchisee of the MML leasing brand new trains. I can't see that happening with the Mark IVs still in service and having some years of life in them. HS2 wuill also have an impact on the way the leasing companies will interpret the market on the classic lines. HS2 (phase 1) should only be seven years away by 2019. Why would you lease new stock with a potential market change (this big) seven years after they enter service - they not be required in as greater numbers by then.
As I said above
'I can't see the leasing companies scrapping old stock without a fight.'

 

[NotATrainspott]

Although much of the IC demand from the MML will transfer onto HS2 I don't think that Class 801s are that unlikely to end up there regardless. Equipped with the higher-density interior they would have more seats available per train length than most other EMUs and so long as they are used for services with reasonably long distances between stops and continue to terminate at St Pancras high level there won't be much loss from having end doors either. Even if some of them were no longer needed post-HS2 on either the MML or the ECML (very unlikely) they would have use somewhere else on the network, in particular for use when the wires reach Cornwall. The initial Arup HS2 Euston rebuild design provided 320m classic platforms for 12-car IEP services to Milton Keynes etc as well so they could even find a use on the WCML once tilt is no longer required south of Crewe.

 

[jimm]

I think you massively overestimate the ability of MPs to understand how such a system works...

The public accounts committee has a very clear grasp of the myriad problems with PFI - just try googling 'public accounts committee pfi' to see a series of their reports.

But the Treasury still seems blinded by the pretence that PFI keeps debt off the Government's books, never mind that if it all goes wrong, we all know who will end up footing the bill... the poor old taxpayer.

 

[Haydn1971]

'I can't see the leasing companies scrapping old stock without a fight.'

Interesting times ahead I'd agree... HS2 is going to have a huge influence on rolling stock procurement from here onwards

 

[SpacePhoenix]

By the time HS2 phase one is complete some stock will probably have reached the end of it's life, one possible example that springs to mind is the 442s, their traction motors will be really old by that point.

 

[Haydn1971]

Express wise, it's a no brainer to expect to see the 800/801's post HS2 running supporting express services, I'd be surprised if the 390's aren't running still, possibly as shorter units, but definitely think the 220/221/222 fleets will be doomed ! Hopefully by then, the only diesel commuter stock will be the 168 and newer fleets, which would still have 30yr+ stock

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I think you massively overestimate the ability of MPs to understand how such a system works...

This might be an opportune time to quote some lines from the Gilbert & Sullivan song ... "When I was a lad".....

"I grew so rich that I was sent
By a pocket borough into Parliament
I always voted at my party's call
And never thought of thinking for myself at all"

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I think you massively overestimate the ability of MPs to understand how such a system works...

This might be an opportune time to quote some lines from the Gilbert & Sullivan song ... "When I was a lad".....

"I grew so rich that I was sent
By a pocket borough into Parliament
I always voted at my party's call
And never thought of thinking for myself at all"

Or:
"But then, the prospect of a lot of dull MPs, in close proximity,
all thinking for themselves, is what no man can face with equanimity"... (Iolanthe)

WS Gilbert once wrote a tetchy letter to the Station Master at Harrow & Wealdstone which started:
"Sir, Saturdays, despite recurring at regular and easily predictable intervals, always seems to take your company by surprise..."

Wouldn't be out of place today, on some lines (notably the selfsame WCML during its recent upgrade).

 

[Class 170101]

Express wise, it's a no brainer to expect to see the 800/801's post HS2 running supporting express services, I'd be surprised if the 390's aren't running still, possibly as shorter units, but definitely think the 220/221/222 fleets will be doomed ! Hopefully by then, the only diesel commuter stock will be the 168 and newer fleets, which would still have 30yr+ stock

I would the 220/221/222 fleets will still be around for phase 1 or HS2. They may however be getting bit long in the tooth by phase 2 opening. That said they will only be between 30 and 35 years old by then so they may have between 5 and 10 years life left in them. I would suggest they will be in their final years somewhere around 2036 to 2040.

 

[Haydn1971]

I would suggest they will be in their final years somewhere around 2036 to 2040.

Would we need that many diesel express trains beyond HS2 Ph2 ? The elephant in the room are the XC routes, which could see substantial investment in wires through the 2020's, but where the XC franchise operates by the 2030's is an altogether more difficult one to answer given massive loss of passengers from existing N-S mainlines to HS2 routes

 

[Manchester77]

Well maybe not in England however in Scotland its been proposed that voyagers take over some of their express workings, I'd say that Scotland will probably become a retirement home for some of the voyagers following their release from XC.

 

[Haydn1971]

Fair comment Manchester77 - Although I'd hope that Scotland had newer stock by then given the investment up there

 

[NotATrainspott]

Well maybe not in England however in Scotland its been proposed that voyagers take over some of their express workings, I'd say that Scotland will probably become a retirement home for some of the voyagers following their release from XC.

That's still dependent on what TS decide to wire once EGIP is complete. There wouldn't be a vast amount of point in running Voyagers if there are wires to Dundee or Perth by that time unless the eVoyager modification were possible. Although the Aberdeen and Inverness lines are long once you leave the Central Belt there aren't a vast number of other track kilometres of electrification to do so these won't take a vastly long amount of time either.

 

[Manchester77]

I'm only going off what was said in an issue of modern railways where the use of voyagers in Scotland was mentioned if virgin replace their entire DMU fleet with EMUs and die lose locomotives.

 

[tbtc]

But you are relying on a TOC leasing trains that are not suitable for the MML! Why would they want to do that?

Most TOCs lease stock that isn't perfect for some of the services that they use it for, that's a fact of life. Whether its 442s on the Gatwick Express or diesels being used entirely under the wires (like Edinburgh to Birmingham) or diesels on Third Rail all day (SWT 158s), or three coach 170s shuttling up and down to Windermere...

...but for the TOC, its a case of what's out there - finding something that's good enough at a price that's low enough. It doesn't have to be perfect, it may not satisfy all enthusiasts...

...but a 125mph electric train looks like it may be good enough for the 125mph electrified MML for a few years - not forever but for a few years time.

I don't see any more tilting trains ordered for the UK other than the mini-Pendolinos because of the compromises involved in running them. Although it might be nice to be able to run EPS speeds over the MML, it will be more important to have each train carry as many passengers as possible until HS2 comes around and truly does make tilting trains a thing of the past on the north/south InterCity lines. Because the MML doesn't serve air-competitive markets like Scotland-London there is also not the intense need to reduce journey times as much as physically possible. Making the fastest services faster on the MML through tilt would also create speed differentials that might not otherwise have to exist, thus reducing overall capacity as commuter EMU designs wouldn't be able to use the InterCity paths (without tilt, a 200km/h Aventra EMU will be just as fast as a 200km/h Meridian or Class 801).

I agree with all of that

Nottingham is the regional centre for the East Midlands and pretty much everything is located in the city centre. Look where the Universities are; nothing is located anywhere near Toton

The Universities are nowhere near Toton? Beeston is almost half way between Toton and the City Centre - and will be a fairly simple tram journey by the time HS2 starts.

Plenty other centres of employment on that side of Nottingham too - the likes of Boots - much easier for people from such places to go via Toton rather than doubling back into the congested City Centre.

And then we move on to Derby. Employment is dominated by Toyota and Rolls Royce and both have their manufacturing plants to the west of the city centre. Toton will be of no use to them. The other big employers are the companies based on Pride Park which is right next to the station

So, business is attracted to land close to train stations? And why shouldn't that happen at Toton?

we own a very nice detached property and love where we live. And for what its worth there aren’t many bad streets in Richmond. And currently Rotheham to London is one heck of a commute, even with much improved journey times!

Ah look, your part of South Yorks is obviously absolutely fine for some

Good for you... but since most people can't afford to be so fussy these days, the option of living somewhere close to Crewe/ Meadowhall/ Toton that is roughly an hour from central London will mean its as simple to commute to/from central London as it is for someone in Portsmouth/ Oxford/ Cambridge (and other places that see reasonable numbers of people commuting into central London).

If you have to weigh up places that are roughly an hour from central London then some people are going to compare the prices for a monthly/annual season ticket plus the prices for rental/mortgage for a flat/house for a month/year...

...if the train time is roughly the same then the distance isn't really an issue (as long as the higher cost of a longer distance season ticket is cancelled out by the lower property costs).

Well maybe not in England however in Scotland its been proposed that voyagers take over some of their express workings, I'd say that Scotland will probably become a retirement home for some of the voyagers following their release from XC.

I can't see sufficient XC lines (and the North Wales Coast) being electrified soon enough to free up large numbers of Voyagers. But, even if there were, the current routes that FSR could use Voyagers on don't need 125mph stock, they'd see a capacity reduction if a four coach Voyager replaced a three coach 170 (due to the crumple zone etc), the narrower interiors required on tilting stock wouldn't be worth it.

Just my opinions, but I can't see much advantage of a Voyager over a 170 for FSR (other than the usual enthusiast complaint about the door position on Turbostars!)

That's still dependent on what TS decide to wire once EGIP is complete. There wouldn't be a vast amount of point in running Voyagers if there are wires to Dundee or Perth by that time unless the eVoyager modification were possible. Although the Aberdeen and Inverness lines are long once you leave the Central Belt there aren't a vast number of other track kilometres of electrification to do so these won't take a vastly long amount of time either.

If eVoyager/Project Thor wasn't economically viable ten years ago (when the Voyagers had maybe thirty years life expectancy) and isn't viable today (when the Voyagers have maybe twenty years life expectancy) then I don't think it'll be worth considering in ten years time (when they'll be approaching their final decade).

Boy, I'm going to feel old when the first Voyagers start to get scrapped - it was bad enough when I saw the first classes that I'd seen introduced being scrapped (56s, 58s etc), but I suppose everything will get cut up one day.

 

[NotATrainspott]

I can't see sufficient XC lines (and the North Wales Coast) being electrified soon enough to free up large numbers of Voyagers. But, even if there were, the current routes that FSR could use Voyagers on don't need 125mph stock, they'd see a capacity reduction if a four coach Voyager replaced a three coach 170 (due to the crumple zone etc), the narrower interiors required on tilting stock wouldn't be worth it.

Just my opinions, but I can't see much advantage of a Voyager over a 170 for FSR (other than the usual enthusiast complaint about the door position on Turbostars!)

If eVoyager/Project Thor wasn't economically viable ten years ago (when the Voyagers had maybe thirty years life expectancy) and isn't viable today (when the Voyagers have maybe twenty years life expectancy) then I don't think it'll be worth considering in ten years time (when they'll be approaching their final decade).

Boy, I'm going to feel old when the first Voyagers start to get scrapped - it was bad enough when I saw the first classes that I'd seen introduced being scrapped (56s, 58s etc), but I suppose everything will get cut up one day.

I didn't think that eVoyager would happen either. As I said, there wouldn't be enough time before all of Central Belt-Aberdeen/Inverness is wired to make Voyagers or an eVoyager conversion worthwhile. I've heard that the Voyagers are a very thirsty unit as well and I have a feeling that will be one the most significant economic justifications for their early scrapping. Even if a Class 800 at 200km/h would use as much fuel away from the wires it would carry many more people and would be able to use the wires as soon as they arrive. I don't see TS being happy with the Voyagers either until the toilet smell is fixed and I have a feeling that the franchise specification says that new stock for the InterCity routes cannot have that kind of smell. If there were a need for 200km/h EDMU/DEMUs on these routes the only train I can see being used would be a shortened HST set on a temporary basis and then a 5-car Class 800 in the longer term, or even a shortened Mk4 rake with a 68 at the end if we're going into the real world of speculation.

 

[jimm]

the current routes that FSR could use Voyagers on don't need 125mph stock

Very boring to have to keep mentioning this but Voyagers cover many miles every day right now on routes where they get nowhere near 125mph. Their superior power and acceleration would come in very handy on some of the more testing sections of Scotrail routes. All rather academic, for a good few years to come anyway, with XC wiring yet to be programmed.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Boy, I'm going to feel old when the first Voyagers start to get scrapped - it was bad enough when I saw the first classes that I'd seen introduced being scrapped (56s, 58s etc), but I suppose everything will get cut up one day.

I saw the D400 series AKA Class 50s introduced Crewe -Glasgow running past my house just north of Preston in 1967 - imagine how old I feel!!

 

[TheKnightWho]

Very boring to have to keep mentioning this but Voyagers cover many miles every day right now on routes where they get nowhere near 125mph. Their superior power and acceleration would come in very handy on some of the more testing sections of Scotrail routes. All rather academic, for a good few years to come anyway, with XC wiring yet to be programmed.

This. A Voyager on the Highland Mainline or Edinburgh to Aberdeen would certainly outperform an HST, regardless of linespeed.

It's funny, actually. I took a Voyager from Newcastle to Oxford yesterday, and was in coach C. The engine in my coach was off. It was actually one of the best railway journeys I've had in a long time. Yes, underfloor engines are annoying, but frankly I've never really noticed the toilet smell being an issue, and I must have made around 50 journeys on the things over the years. I don't doubt it's an issue at the ends of coaches on certain trains, but I have a sneaking suspicion that a lot of the criticism they get is enthusiasts outraged at them replacing their beloved HSTs.

No doubt the SET will rectify most of these problems anyway, but I certainly don't think that'll lessen the criticism coming from the most vehement critics.

 

[Altnabreac]

I didn't think that eVoyager would happen either. As I said, there wouldn't be enough time before all of Central Belt-Aberdeen/Inverness is wired to make Voyagers or an eVoyager conversion worthwhile. I've heard that the Voyagers are a very thirsty unit as well and I have a feeling that will be one the most significant economic justifications for their early scrapping. Even if a Class 800 at 200km/h would use as much fuel away from the wires it would carry many more people and would be able to use the wires as soon as they arrive. I don't see TS being happy with the Voyagers either until the toilet smell is fixed and I have a feeling that the franchise specification says that new stock for the InterCity routes cannot have that kind of smell. If there were a need for 200km/h EDMU/DEMUs on these routes the only train I can see being used would be a shortened HST set on a temporary basis and then a 5-car Class 800 in the longer term, or even a shortened Mk4 rake with a 68 at the end if we're going into the real world of speculation.

I noticed the Toilet smell section in the Scotrail ITT too and took it to mean that TS are less keen on the idea of cascading Voyagers than some journalists at Modern Railways may think.

Rolling stock minimum attributes
Inter-city Central Belt – Perth/Stirling/Dundee/Aberdeen and Inverness

Toilet provision on board which is no less than currently provided on each route and that avoids smell being noticeable in seated areas.

However electrification to Aberdeen is likely to be around the end of CP7 (pick a year of 2029 for sake of argument) so you do have 15 years until electric stock comes into operation. I know some stakeholders want upgraded stock on the intercity routes but I suspect all bidders for the current franchise are likely to price it based on using 170s and moving to Voyagers with their higher fuel usage and leasing costs would not be a simple matter mid Franchise.

Currently the only things the ITT requests for these routes that are not available in all 170s is a 230V plug socket for each pair of seats, Wifi and passenger counting arrangements. These are relatively simple to fix.

If the Franchise runs for its full 10 years, by 2025 you are likely to have wires to Perth/Dundee from Edinburgh and definite dated plans to wire Aberdeen in the next couple of years so seems unlikely you would cascade new diesel stock north in the mid 2020s to run only for 3-4 years before being replaced.

 

[Kneedown]

The Universities are nowhere near Toton? Beeston is almost half way between Toton and the City Centre - and will be a fairly simple tram journey by the time HS2 starts.

Plenty other centres of employment on that side of Nottingham too - the likes of Boots - much easier for people from such places to go via Toton rather than doubling back into the congested City Centre.

A fair chunk of the University sites are in town and at the Queens Medical Centre. All these are on current or future tram routes.
Lets not rely entirely on the tram to connect HS2 to Nottingham though. It will be a longish, stop/start journey. It currently takes over 30mins to get from Hucknall to Station Street even with a decent chunk of 50mph running.
A decent heavy rail service needs to link HS2 with both Nottingham and Derby to connect with the existing network, and also to avoid loss of journey time benefits and overcrowding which will result from relying on the tram alone.

 

[Class83]

The 222s (rearranged into 6 car formation) would seem much more likely for Edinburgh/Glasgow-Aberdeen/Inverness than the 220s or 221s. They'd actually have more seats than a 3 car 170 and could be available in about 5 years time when the MML is electrified.

 

[Class 170101]

An assumption is being made that Voyagers and Meridians will be permitted to the same speeds as a 158 / 170 / HST.

I believe you will find some Differential Speed Limits on the Highland Mainline and between Inverness and Aberdeen therefore I would be surprised if Voyagers will be allowed to used the higher speeds, therefore increasing journey times.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I'm only going off what was said in an issue of modern railways where the use of voyagers in Scotland was mentioned if virgin replace their entire DMU fleet with EMUs and die lose locomotives.

Forgive me for my lack of current knowledge of modern rail technology terms, but what are "die lose locomotives" ?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Forgive me for my lack of current knowledge of modern rail technology terms, but what are "die lose locomotives" ?

The curse of predictive text apps...
Reminds me of when Eurostar announced its first services to Brussels and said they would all arrive at noon, to general incomprehension.
It turned out this had been mis-translated from the French which said they would all arrive at Bruxelles Midi, and the auto translator picked the wrong interpretation of midi...

 

[Manchester77]

Forgive me for my lack of current knowledge of modern rail technology terms, but what are "die lose locomotives" ?

The curse of predictive text apps...

Yep must remember to read over posts and check for typos next time