Simple really, the 800/801 is a product of a PFI contract that covers building and maintaining a specific type of train - early contracts had mention of other routes, but the contract is for GWML & ECML - if 800/801 were moved, penalty clauses would be enacted, if new express 125mph multiple units were to be introduced on the MML or even XC route, tenders would be open to any manufacturer, but clearly Hitachi would be keen to build more 800/801 type units post EC/GW obligations, but then so will every other manufacturer and they are likely to be able to start construction of their product before Hitachi can
In other words there is no reason why the tendering process cannot start in the next months. The DfT clearly have a design in mind and once the supplier is chosen there is no reason why the trains could not start running once electrification is completed to at least Leicester. And
if Hitachi won the contract there is no reason why production could be started before the current orders are completed. Personally I think the idea of running 225's is dead in the water.
Believe whatever you like, my comment is based upon the economics of running a regular fast train with a fraction of the passengers, the TOC's aren't going to do it if it's not profitable - can Leicester generate enough passengers alone to justify as many trains as what call there now - the answer is no - could it generate enough to justify one, absolutely, two, hmm... I'm not convinced
There won't be a MML service as it is now - passengers from Sheffield, Derby & Nottingham will use HS2 for London - take them away, MML as a franchise isn't economic to run as a single franchise - Leeds, York & north of there will use HS2 & CC HS2 services to London over ECML, as will Birmingham and sources north of there will transfer to HS2 & CC HS2 from WCML - some destinations will still be better served by current classic rail in a much wider XC style franchise to replace ECML/MML/WCML
I think your calculations are wrong and for that matter so do Network Rail and the DfT. In terms of Nottingham and Derby take a look at traffic levels on the M1 around Jct 25 and the A52 during the peak. Thats exactly what many others will do and ultimately will decide that its not worth travelling out to Toton. Look at the congestion on the Nottingham ring road and the same goes for Derby too.
Nottingham is the regional centre for the East Midlands and pretty much everything is located in the city centre. Look where the Universities are; nothing is located anywhere near Toton. And given that the area around Toton is something of a hole nothing is likely to move either. Beeston will be your closest bet but changing trains will always be negative for many people.
And then we move on to Derby. Employment is dominated by Toyota and Rolls Royce and both have their manufacturing plants to the west of the city centre. Toton will be of no use to them. The other big employers are the companies based on Pride Park which is right next to the station. Then start looking at travel times from the suburbs to Toton as compared to the current station.
Even if you fail to grasp all of this, fortunately for the East and North Midlands the DfT and Network Rail do. Both of those organisations have both stated that they don't expect the MML timetable to be essentially any different to the current timetable. Which means you can also expect at least one train an hour running from Sheffield with a station call at Chesterfield. After one stop at Leicester youre in London. Given the travel time between the likes of Bolsolver and Toton I think the MML would be pretty competitive. There is no way on earth that Chesterfield and its surrounding area will be left without a IC service to London. Essentially I don't think any MML IC services will start from Leicester in which case there is no need to just have to rely on customers from Leicester to justify a IC service.
I know you dream of Toton being a transport hub but it simply isnt going to happen. Heathrow works as a hub because people are prepared to travel in excess of three hours to travel thousands of miles (and course Heathrow tends to be where the best deals are).
Haha... Everything the DfT does creates winners and losers - add a bus lane, car users suffer, widen a road, pedestrians have more road to cross, move trains between TOC's, someone gains, someone suffers
Ok, add a bus lane and everybody benefits, which is why they are introduced. More people use the bus which means there are fewer cars on the road so traffic speeds up. Everyone's a winner, no one's a loser.
Widen a road but then you have a protected pedestrian crossing. That way no one has to play chicken!
Thirdly, with the current cascade programme everybody benefits in some way, even if its just extra trains that have seen better days. Unless of course the 225's are transferred to the MML in which the entire route is screwed.
No preaching here, my offer still stands, I can show you some amazing detached property in acres of land for the price of a rabbit hutch in SW London - Rotherham isn't a very nice town centre at all, the rural areas to the south and north are conversely very nice, with pockets of mining villages, which to be fair ain't that nice... Just like the SW area of London you live in, very nice streets next to very bad streets. I already live in a very nice alternative area of SE Sheffield that puts Dore/Totley to shame - I'm happy where I am, hopefully the news won't get to the Sheffield Hallam mob who will just inflate prices
Thanks for the invitation but its a no from me. I left the East Midlands to go University in Manchester at 18 and I've no intention of returning (I'm now 47). I'm proud of my roots and often head back to visit my family and friends and watch Derby play but thats it. The same goes for my wife who's from Nelson in East Lancs. This is not nor the time or the place to start discussing property but we own a very nice detached property and love where we live. And for what its worth there arent many bad streets in Richmond. And currently Rotheham to London is one heck of a commute, even with much improved journey times!
Ah look, your part of South Yorks is obviously absolutely fine for some or else you and many others wouldn't live there. However London gives my family and me a far better quality of life than anywhere in the East Midlands / South Yorks ever could. Not mention enjoying a pint at the White Cross by the Thames on a nice spring / summer evening!