Expected changes to Northern & TPE with stock changes

[Starmill]

Well we all complained about the DfT Micro-managing rolling stock, now they take a back seat and it all goes belly up!

Indeed. It's quite difficult to say what's going on really... lots of emotions and conflicting opinion. My view is that either an established market-based system OR a centrally-managed system might both have merits; but the transition and lack of clarity from the government about which we are actually having are what are causing the problems!

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

UPROAR IN THE NORTH

Yes it's a definitely worth read. I particularly like the sentiment in the last 3 paragraphs; ministers and the DfT, what will you do if these self same 'market forces' were to send the 51 185s to the new ScotRail franchise? 9 trains could just be the beginning...

Good to see the two-page article so near to the front in the April 2014 issue of Modern Railways.

 

[TheWalrus]

What's needed IMO is an order of 110mph capable bi-mode EDMUs optimised for outer-suburban/regional routes to operate the current TPE services and also replace the woefully low capacity 170s used by XC. A mix of airline and table seating in 2+2 config but with 1/3+2/3 double doors to keep dwell times down. The same order could also cover EMT's Liverpool-Norwich services, and if a DC variant was produced could operate SWT's services to Salisbury/Exeter/Bristol and Southern's services to Uckfield. This would release plenty of 170s and 158s to be cascaded elsewhere, and the ease of future conversion between EDMU & EMU shouldn't scare the ROSCOs and the DfT from making the investment while there's a rolling electrification programme underway. Right now the law of unintended consequences is playing havoc with the availability of diesel stock because of the nature of the ROSCOs business models.

Good idea, maybe a job for Bombardier's Aventra?

 

[YorkshireBear]

Well we all complained about the DfT Micro-managing rolling stock, now they take a back seat and it all goes belly up!

If you read the article it turns out they did have some input though. They told FTPE they were not allowed to renegotiate leases... So it wasn't a free market anyway as FTPE were not allowed to put in a counter proposal.

 

[northwichcat]

Well we all complained about the DfT Micro-managing rolling stock, now they take a back seat and it all goes belly up!

The problem is at the moment Chiltern are the only franchise who can sign rolling stock on long term deals meaning Chiltern have an unfair advantage.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The problem is at the moment Chiltern are the only franchise who can sign rolling stock on long term deals meaning Chiltern have an unfair advantage.

Merseyrail has an even longer deal - but it can't afford new stock.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Merseyrail has an even longer deal - but it can't afford new stock.

It would also be rather pointless them getting DMUs

 

[northwichcat]

Merseyrail has an even longer deal - but it can't afford new stock.

Merseyrail and LO aren't franchises let by DfT though and AFAIK both franchises are only interested in keeping their existing stock or acquiring brand new stock.

 

[WatcherZero]

And Merseytravel has already squirreled away £40m in hard cash in a ring fenced fund for rolling stock replacement, alongside some debt over the life of the stock they should be able to afford it by the end of the decade.

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Little worrying now this talk that the 185's themselves might not be safe, with their lease end date coinciding with the start of the next Scotland franchise and the Scottish governments desire for rolling stock modernisation meaning some bidders have been sniffing around. A real test of the Governments laissez faire rolling stock strategy.

The idea that come 2016 TPE may be left with a fleet consiting solely of 10 class 350's. The Government couldnt be that stupid......

 

[Class 170101]

The idea that come 2016 TPE may be left with a fleet consiting solely of 10 class 350's. The Government couldnt be that stupid......

The 350s? Only an interim measure on their way to London Midland. Perhaps TPE might have no fleet at all.

 

[RobShipway]

Yes, the Government from what I have can be that stupid as they say that it is down to the TOC's to talk to the ROSCO's about rolling stock. However, if a TOC has only got a 5 year contract to run the trains, why would they approve having new rolling stock?

If LO, replace their 8 2-car class 172's, with a 3 - 4 car fleet of say class 378 after the Gospel Oak line has been electrified, could these not be transferred to the TPE services?

Personally though I would if I was at TPE, look to see if the XC 170's can be obtained and the 15 class 172's that London Midland has could be obtained as well. I would also see if the 6 4-car class 171 fleet from Southern could be obtained as well. All of these units I would replace with similar spec EDMU units if possible either from Hitachi or Bombardier.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

If LO, replace their 8 2-car class 172's, with a 3 - 4 car fleet of say class 378 after the Gospel Oak line has been electrified, could these not be transferred to the TPE services?

Gospel Oak-Barking should ready by June 2017 according to the CP5 plan.
By then both TPE and Northern will have DMUs freed up by the NW scheme.

 

[Darren R]

Little worrying now this talk that the 185's themselves might not be safe, with their lease end date coinciding with the start of the next Scotland franchise and the Scottish governments desire for rolling stock modernisation meaning some bidders have been sniffing around.

Scotland could be a 'foreign country' by then. Now wouldn't that be an interesting situation poltically: an English TOC losing rolling stock in order for it to go to operate services in an independant Scotland.....

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The 350s? Only an interim measure on their way to London Midland. Perhaps TPE might have no fleet at all.

Sounds as if that this could be an interesting article to receive a similar two-page spread given to "Uproar in the North" in a future edition of Modern Railways, with either Roger Ford or Alan Williams having free-reign to highlight such stupidity of thought.
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The idea that come 2016 TPE may be left with a fleet consiting solely of 10 class 350's. The Government couldnt be that stupid......

Perhaps a suitably phrased question to be asked at "Prime Ministers Question Time".

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Scotland could be a 'foreign country' by then. Now wouldn't that be an interesting situation poltically: an English TOC losing rolling stock in order for it to go to operate services in an independant Scotland.....

I read an article in yesterday's Guardian about a "new transport plan for an independent Scotland".
It was all about them having decided to drive on the right, with special spiral border interchanges with England to get cars onto the other side of the road.
It also required 58,000 road signs to be changed.
Then I checked the date...

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/apr/01/scotland-driving-on-right-independence-road-scheme

 

[northwichcat]

Gospel Oak-Barking should ready by June 2017 according to the CP5 plan.
By then both TPE and Northern will have DMUs freed up by the NW scheme.

The TPE ones freed up from Manchester Airport to Blackpool services in December 16 (assuming EMUs are made available) will be needed for the 6th train on North TPE until December 18. Although, if the 170s aren't replaced then those units will be needed to reinstate the 5th train on North TPE.

Northern will start to have additional DMUs available in 2016 but there are a number of plans for additional services on routes which won't be electrified (as per the Northern Hub plans) which will be finalised when the next franchise is let.
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The 350s? Only an interim measure on their way to London Midland. Perhaps TPE might have no fleet at all.

The 350/4s won't be going to LM for the forseeable future. They were procured for TPE and not subleased from LM as is a common misconception. The LM franchise ends only a few months after the TPE franchise meaning LM aren't in a better position to sign a lease for them. It has been suggested that when an order of regional EMUs is placed for the North that it will include replacements for the 350/4s allowing for them to go to LM but until such an order is placed there are no confirmed plans for LM to acquire the 350/4s.

 

[swt_passenger]

The 350/4s won't be going to LM for the forseeable future. They were procured for TPE and not subleased from LM as is a common misconception. The LM franchise ends only a few months after the TPE franchise meaning LM aren't in a better position to sign a lease for them. It has been suggested that when an order of regional EMUs is placed for the North that it will include replacements for the 350/4s allowing for them to go to LM but until such an order is placed there are no confirmed plans for LM to acquire the 350/4s.

Another point that is often skipped over is that part of the logic for transferring the 10 x 350/4s to LM (as you say not 'back to LM' as the contract was novated to TPE), was that TPE would be better off with slightly faster trains for the WCML (North), but that was before it was known that 350s could be modified for 110 mph running.

Why not transfer most of the 4 car 350s to TPE's successor and order a new EMU fleet (including longer fixed formation stock for the WCML South) for LM's successor instead?

 

[northwichcat]

Why not transfer most of the 4 car 350s to TPE's successor and order a new EMU fleet (including longer fixed formation stock for the WCML South) for LM's successor instead?

At the moment the 350/2s aren't capable of 110mph running and have a completely unsuitable internal layout for TPE. Some of the TPE services are the fastest service between two cities and are longer in journey time than many of Virgin's Pendolino services. The 350/1s, 350/3s and 350/4s will only be a very small capacity increase over 3 car 185s due to short carriages on the 350s so you'll probably finish up with a higher number of services needing to be 8 car than if you order new stock with longer carriages.

It should also be considered whether 125mph stock should be ordered for TPE. Liverpool-Newcastle, Manchester Airport-Scotland and potentially Liverpool-Scotland services could all utilise 125mph stock effectively.

If LM introduce the proposed Preston-Birmingham stopping service and introduce the proposed Manchester-Stoke-Stone-Birmingham stopping service they'll need more regional EMUs to run services that won't effectively utilise 125mph rolling stock.

 

[swt_passenger]

At the moment the 350/2s aren't capable of 110mph running and have a completely unsuitable internal layout for TPE.

The former is only because they haven't had the same mods to the motors, the traction package is otherwise identical; and the latter is also capable of alteration mainly by replacing seats.

 

[northwichcat]

The former is only because they haven't had the same mods to the motors, the traction package is otherwise identical; and the latter is also capable of alteration mainly by replacing seats.

But then you're investing millions of pounds to make units less than 10 years old kind of suitable for the routes you're proposing transferring them to and what would you order for LM as replacement? Desiro Cities or Electrostars to the same specification as the 350/2s? Sounds like a waste of money to me.

 

[RobShipway]

Would it not be better for TPE to have IEP trains in the future?

 

[Class172]

Would it not be better for TPE to have IEP trains in the future?

Surely for the majority of the routes the door layout would be unsuitable, as single doors at each end could not cope with the volume of passengers?

 

[FQ]

They should get a load of Mk3s and run TnT 37s to attract more people, to get more money, to get more stock.

Enthusiasts after enthusiasts after enthusiasts.

 

[northwichcat]

Surely for the majority of the routes the door layout would be unsuitable, as single doors at each end could not cope with the volume of passengers?

The 4 TPE services an hour between Manchester and York will have an Intercity style stopping pattern. (No stops at places like Newton-le-Willows, Stalybridge, Dewsbury or Garforth.)

In the franchise review proposals had the TPE franchise been dissolved the Newcastle-Liverpool route would have gone to either EC or XC.

 

[YorkshireBear]

They should get a load of Mk3s and run TnT 37s to attract more people, to get more money, to get more stock.

Enthusiasts after enthusiasts after enthusiasts.

That is not how the world works. And it would not attract more money.
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Would it not be better for TPE to have IEP trains in the future?

The door position would destroy station dwell times. And i imagine clearance won't be easy.

 

[Starmill]

And Merseytravel has already squirreled away £40m in hard cash in a ring fenced fund for rolling stock replacement, alongside some debt over the life of the stock they should be able to afford it by the end of the decade.

--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


Little worrying now this talk that the 185's themselves might not be safe, with their lease end date coinciding with the start of the next Scotland franchise and the Scottish governments desire for rolling stock modernisation meaning some bidders have been sniffing around. A real test of the Governments laissez faire rolling stock strategy.

The idea that come 2016 TPE may be left with a fleet consiting solely of 10 class 350's. The Government couldnt be that stupid......

Hahah there would be slightly fewer 2-coach 156s to come and take their place then!

 

[northwichcat]

Hahah there would be slightly fewer 2-coach 156s to come and take their place then!

Scotrail have 59 x 3 car 170s, so they can have our 51 x 185s if we can have their 59 x 170s

 

[43074]

Would it not be better for TPE to have IEP trains in the future?

TPE North (Liverpool - Manchester - Leeds etc.) and Blackpool & Windermere need a 110mph EMU with 23 metre vehicles and 1/4 and 3/4 door arrangement (so think Desiro Express).

On the TPE route between Manchester and Scotland they need a baby-Pendolino type train with 125mph top speed & tilt.

That's my take on it.

 

[RobShipway]

TPE North (Liverpool - Manchester - Leeds etc.) and Blackpool & Windermere need a 110mph EMU with 23 metre vehicles and 1/4 and 3/4 door arrangement (so think Desiro Express).

On the TPE route between Manchester and Scotland they need a baby-Pendolino type train with 125mph top speed & tilt.

That's my take on it.

But the Pendolino has the doors in the wrong place in the same way that the IEP trains does, so that is not going to work either.

 

[sprinterguy]

But the Pendolino has the doors in the wrong place in the same way that the IEP trains does, so that is not going to work either.

Perhaps I am mistaken in my analysis, but I would consider the Manchester to Scotland corridor to be a truer example of a long-distance regional route, particularly with the removal of the Bolton stops, than the “core” Transpennine network over the Pennines is these days, with its’ mix of short distance commuting and longer distance traffic.

As such, I think that “Baby Pendos” would be well suited to the Manchester to Scotland route.
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Scotrail have 59 x 3 car 170s, so they can have our 51 x 185s if we can have their 59 x 170s

With EGIP electrification displacing a fair number of 170 units, it doesn’t seem like a bad fit: Sending the 185s to Scotland following EGIP might even be sufficient to remove the final 158 workings on the Highland main line. With Transpennine electrification across Northern England as well, 59 x 3-car 170s could probably begin to make major inroads into the Northern Pacer fleet, too.

Of course, it’s all down to whatever the winning bidder for the Scotrail franchise decides. It is probably more likely that an internal cascade of 170s will occur within the Scotrail franchise to some extent, to release older Sprinter DMUs perhaps alongside a smaller number of 170s. If the suggested practice of utilising differentiated long distance rolling stock on the primary inter-city services within Scotland is adhered to (Be it 185s, 222s or whatever), then in combination with EGIP electrification it seems plausible that the 34 strong fleet of “express” 170 units will become available at the very least.