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Expected changes to Northern & TPE with stock changes

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transmanche

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Middlesbrough-York electrification is now under consideration by DfT so while the current proposal is for 4tph between Manchester and York with half terminating there and the other half going to Newcastle, that might change if York-Middlesbrough gets electrified.
Slight correction: Northallerton-York is already electrified (which is more than half the distance between Middlesbrough and York. So 'only' the Middlesbrough-Northallerton bit needs electrification...
 
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joeykins82

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Given we've got around 12 months to get replacement units to TPE do you really think an ITT for a new type of train is the solution to the problem?
My understanding was that Chiltern would sub-lease the 170s back to TPE until the start of the Oxford services in mid-2016, so that gives 24-30 months rather than 12.
But yeah, I think that it's the only long term solution that's possible within the "market" as it stands right now, short of the DfT underwriting investment in straight-diesel stock.
 

northwichcat

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My understanding was that Chiltern would sub-lease the 170s back to TPE until the start of the Oxford services in mid-2016, so that gives 24-30 months rather than 12.
But yeah, I think that it's the only long term solution that's possible within the "market" as it stands right now, short of the DfT underwriting investment in straight-diesel stock.

I think the original suggestion was Chiltern will take on the lease from next year but are happy to sublease a few back. If they want to convert them to 168s, add centre carriages from the existing 168s and make the interiors match then that won't be a quick job to do.
 

WatcherZero

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What I read was taken and some subleased until May 2015 and some until Dec 2015. Neither of which date really allows enough time for Northern to release significant stock from electrification.

The only efficiency I can think of is that last I heard Liverpool-Wigan electrification will be complete by Dec 2014 but services wont go over to electric until May 2015 (possibly even Dec 2015) so sourcing electric for that service earlier would free up a couple of units.
 

northwichcat

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What I read was taken and some subleased until May 2015 and some until Dec 2015. Neither of which date really allows enough time for Northern to release significant stock from electrification.

The only efficiency I can think of is that last I heard Liverpool-Wigan electrification will be complete by Dec 2014 but services wont go over to electric until May 2015 (possibly even Dec 2015) so sourcing electric for that service earlier would free up a couple of units.

For the May 2015 timetable change I can't see TPE wanting to release a few of the 170s and getting a few 158s in exchange.

The lease end date for the 170/3s with TPE is shown on the Porterbrook website as 01/04/2015: http://www.porterbrook.co.uk/pages/LeaseEndDates.htm
 
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My ideal Scenario is Virgin Or Next WCML Operator Leases Some more Pendolinos and maybe do the rest upto 11? for Glasgow-London via Birmingham these Released Voyagers then go to TPE as 170 replacements til Electrification is complete they then transfer to Crosscountry which i assume knowing arriva would mean the end of the hst's this would mean Virgin would only keep Voyagers for the off the wires routes.
 

fgwrich

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My ideal Scenario is Virgin Or Next WCML Operator Leases Some more Pendolinos and maybe do the rest upto 11? for Glasgow-London via Birmingham these Released Voyagers then go to TPE as 170 replacements til Electrification is complete they then transfer to Crosscountry which i assume knowing arriva would mean the end of the hst's this would mean Virgin would only keep Voyagers for the off the wires routes.

Very unlikely as I doubt you would be able to get any Pendolino cars constructed and entered into service in time, whilst it would also end up bringing another 'incompatible' class of fleet into the TPE network. Let alone doubt whether they would be any different to the 185 times and SP 170 timings.

I think one of the nearest solutions would be to hasten the chase line electrification and relinquish London Midland of several of their 170s - to TPE for temporary use, before they eventually get cascaded on the TPE network by Electrification.
 

Old Hill Bank

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Very unlikely as I doubt you would be able to get any Pendolino cars constructed and entered into service in time, whilst it would also end up bringing another 'incompatible' class of fleet into the TPE network. Let alone doubt whether they would be any different to the 185 times and SP 170 timings.

I think one of the nearest solutions would be to hasten the chase line electrification and relinquish London Midland of several of their 170s - to TPE for temporary use, before they eventually get cascaded on the TPE network by Electrification.

Chase line is only going to release three DMUs not Nine!
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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I am not sure if this has been mentioned in the thread but would the 10 Class 350/4 units that are for FTPE more than the number of Class 170 units that will be taken away from them ? Is so, they will have a net gain of one unit.

I am, as usual, waiting for postings to expose my lack of understanding of the situation.
 

Bantamzen

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TPE, Chiltern and Porterbrook are private companies and can make what contracts they like with their assets.
TPE still has to deliver its franchise contract in terms of frequency/capacity etc.
Long-term the 170s were not going to stay with a mostly-electric TP franchise.
TPE will soon have 40 extra vehicles and are losing 18.
That's still a good uplift in capacity.

Well that's one way to look at it. Another way is to say that up until a few weeks ago, TPE were to have 40 extra vehicles instead of 22 so that's a loss of 18 after TPE had made plans for much higher capacity on some of it's routes. TPE had planned a 5th North TP service from May, and some small amount of strengthening on other existing services so any loss now is a problem. No matter how you spin it, it's bad news for the commuters that will still probably have to shoehorn themselves onto those peak (and plenty of off peak too) services.
 

Solent&Wessex

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I am not sure if this has been mentioned in the thread but would the 10 Class 350/4 units that are for FTPE more than the number of Class 170 units that will be taken away from them ? Is so, they will have a net gain of one unit.

I am, as usual, waiting for postings to expose my lack of understanding of the situation.

Well that's one way to look at it. Another way is to say that up until a few weeks ago, TPE were to have 40 extra vehicles instead of 22 so that's a loss of 18 after TPE had made plans for much higher capacity on some of it's routes. TPE had planned a 5th North TP service from May, and some small amount of strengthening on other existing services so any loss now is a problem. No matter how you spin it, it's bad news for the commuters that will still probably have to shoehorn themselves onto those peak (and plenty of off peak too) services.


There is lots of talk about that the fact that with the arrival of the 350s and the loss of the 170s then TPE still has a net gain of units. But it isn't that simple.

From May this year a new timetable has been designed taking into account all available units. The Scottish services become hourly all day to relieve the overcrowding and provide valuable extra capacity, this is an increase on now. There are not, therefore, 10 185s released as it is not a direct swap from one traction to another.

The 185s that are released are used in a number of ways, primarily provide a new hourly service between Liverpool and York. This is very important as this route is very busy and this service provides extra capacity as well as providing a new faster service between key locations to make rail more attractive too. and replace 2 car 170 workings to allow the 170s to run in pairs.

The 170s themselves run in pairs for much of the day - the are 2 x 4 car 170 workings on the South Route and 3 x 2 car units on the North Route which spend much of the day coupled together to make a 6 car. These are provided on the busiest services where 1 x 185 or 1 x 170 as now are currently insufficient for the level of demand.

These extra workings and diagrams have all been planned, extra train crews recruited, new train crew depots opened, new depot and other staff taken on to service the trains so by simply abandoning the plan would have significant cost implications.

Now, it would theoretically be possible to replace the 170s with only 4 extra 185 units. These might be available if some of the North West services were transferred to Northern. But it would mean a reduction in capacity on some services compared to now and also compared to the new May timetable, a move which would not be welcome. And as mentioned, where do the Northern units come from for these services? Well, if enough EMUs were available for Liverpool area services, and the current DMU operated Liverpool - Blackpool service was cut back to Preston, then all these could be electric workings and release DMUs, but they, as mentioned elsewhere, have already been allocated to Todmorden Curve, strengthening, etc etc.
 

38Cto15E

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MP Jack Straw asked why TPE were losing some of their trains to Chiltern in PMQs yesterday.
It was pretty funny cos Jack Straw is MP for Burnley or therabouts but he lives near to Charlbury which will be benefitting from the move.
It will be on iPlayer if you fancy a look.
 

sprinterguy

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MP Jack Straw asked why TPE were losing some of their trains to Chiltern in PMQs yesterday.
It was pretty funny cos Jack Straw is MP for Burnley or therabouts but he lives near to Charlbury which will be benefitting from the move.
It will be on iPlayer if you fancy a look.
Why would a constituency served by FGW and located on the Cotswold line be benefitting from Chiltern's gain of additional rolling stock?
 
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northwichcat

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MP Jack Straw asked why TPE were losing some of their trains to Chiltern in PMQs yesterday.
It was pretty funny cos Jack Straw is MP for Burnley or therabouts but he lives near to Charlbury which will be benefitting from the move.
It will be on iPlayer if you fancy a look.

I'm sure his concern is Northern giving trains to TPE will means Northern's plans for additional services and capacity might be hampered.

George Osborne was actively backing a HS2 at Manchester Airport despite the fact that's outside his area and within his area Wilmslow could eventually lose it's direct London service as a result of HS2 when WCML services between Manchester and London get cut back.
 

Whistler40145

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Is the reason FTPE are having to give up its Class 170s because Chiltern have a requirement to increase the number of services via High Wycombe using the new Bicester Chord?
 

Class377/5

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Is the reason FTPE are having to give up its Class 170s because Chiltern have a requirement to increase the number of services via High Wycombe using the new Bicester Chord?

FTPE isn't giving up the units for Chiltern. Its giving up the units because the ease they hive with them is ending. Chiltern are able to discuss with owners of the 170 and have agreed a lease while FTPE aren't allowed to discuss this because they can only deal with time in their franchise.
 

northwichcat

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Is the reason FTPE are having to give up its Class 170s because Chiltern have a requirement to increase the number of services via High Wycombe using the new Bicester Chord?

Chiltern need more stock but it didn't have to mean TPE needed to lose stock.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
FTPE isn't giving up the units for Chiltern. Its giving up the units because the ease they hive with them is ending. Chiltern are able to discuss with owners of the 170 and have agreed a lease while FTPE aren't allowed to discuss this because they can only deal with time in their franchise.

Also for TPE consideration needs to be given as to what type of DMUs and how many will be required from December 2018. The entire 185 fleet will be too large unless more routes are added to the franchise while the 170/3s wouldn't have been enough unless they got more 170s from elsewhere.
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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Also for TPE consideration needs to be given as to what type of DMUs and how many will be required from December 2018. The entire 185 fleet will be too large unless more routes are added to the franchise while the 170/3s wouldn't have been enough unless they got more 170s from elsewhere.

Are there parts of the FTPE Manchester to Hull route that find certain specific operational problems with use of the Class 185 fleet as replacement for the Class 170 fleet?
 

northwichcat

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Are there parts of the FTPE Manchester to Hull route that find certain specific operational problems with use of the Class 185 fleet as replacement for the Class 170 fleet?

185s can't run at Sprinter speeds on certain sections of track which includes a section between Selby and Hull but that doesn't prevent 185s from operating Manchester-Hull service or doesn't mean Network Rail can't do track improvement work to improve the line speed. The same applies for sections of track between Stockport and Sheffield.
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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185s can't run at Sprinter speeds on certain sections of track which includes a section between Selby and Hull but that doesn't prevent 185s from operating Manchester-Hull service or doesn't mean Network Rail can't do track improvement work to improve the line speed. The same applies for sections of track between Stockport and Sheffield.

So some of the displaced Class 185 fleet can still be used on the Manchester to Hull service. Would it not be better to do that and find that ALL your diesel fleet be exactly the same for purposes of maintenance, after the departure of the nine Class 170 units ?

Is a few minutes time factor so critical on this line, as a recast of the line timetable can surely make the required time allowances feasible.
 

Class377/5

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Also for TPE consideration needs to be given as to what type of DMUs and how many will be required from December 2018. The entire 185 fleet will be too large unless more routes are added to the franchise while the 170/3s wouldn't have been enough unless they got more 170s from elsewhere.

The requirements are going to start changing in Dec 2016 so you raise a very valid point. Things are changing, but someone needs to start getting a grip and plan for the next few years. It the same thing with Thameslink, things are still fluid despite investment coming and no-on seems to be taking a higher level view to guide plans to the end result.
 

transmanche

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Would it not be better to do that and find that ALL your diesel fleet be exactly the same for purposes of maintenance, after the departure of the nine Class 170 units ?
I don't think TPE do any of their own maintenance. The 185s are maintained by Siemens at their Ardwick depot; whilst the 170s are maintained by Bombardier at Crofton (near Wakefield). So I don't think that would make any difference to TPE.

(However, having a single DMU type might have other advantages; in crew training, rostering and unit diagramming etc.)
 

northwichcat

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The requirements are going to start changing in Dec 2016 so you raise a very valid point.

I think for December 16 while Manchester Airport to Blackpool could go over to EMU the number of 185s released would be similar to the number required for the proposed additional North TPE service (a Piccadilly-Selby semi-fast) but once North TPE services start switching to electrics significant changes to the TPE fleet will be needed to make effective use of the new overheads.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
So some of the displaced Class 185 fleet can still be used on the Manchester to Hull service. Would it not be better to do that and find that ALL your diesel fleet be exactly the same for purposes of maintenance, after the departure of the nine Class 170 units ?

Is a few minutes time factor so critical on this line, as a recast of the line timetable can surely make the required time allowances feasible.

The problem is at the moment TPE are introducing extra services in a few weeks time so they will utilise the 350s, 185s and 170s. The 170s being cascaded to Chiltern in 2015 will happen before 185s are released from Manchester Airport to Blackpool in December 2016, so in the interim TPE will need replacements for the 170s which according to the North West Tonight report could be sourced from Northern Rail.
 
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Xenophon PCDGS

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I don't think TPE do any of their own maintenance. The 185s are maintained by Siemens at their Ardwick depot; whilst the 170s are maintained by Bombardier at Crofton (near Wakefield). So I don't think that would make any difference to TPE.

(However, having a single DMU type might have other advantages; in crew training, rostering and unit diagramming etc.)

As you have undoubtedly noted, I made a most specific reference to the post-Class 170 scenario, so the matter of the Bombardier facility at Crofton would not then enter into the equation.

Your final comments above concur with my thoughts of having a single Class 185-only diesel fleet.
 

transmanche

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The 170s being cascaded to Chiltern in 2015 will happen before 185s are released from Manchester Airport to Blackpool in December 2016
Except the 170s won't be "cascaded to Chiltern in 2015" will they? TPE's lease expires and Chiltern will take out a new lease in 2015 - and then Chiltern will sub-lease the units back to TPE until... well we don't know, but probably at least until 2016. And possibly longer if Chiltern get the LO 172s in 2017.
 

Class377/5

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Except the 170s won't be "cascaded to Chiltern in 2015" will they? TPE's lease expires and Chiltern will take out a new lease in 2015 - and then Chiltern will sub-lease the units back to TPE until... well we don't know, but probably at least until 2016. And possibly longer if Chiltern get the LO 172s in 2017.

The need is in two stages with summer 2015 for the first and spring 2016 for the latter.

I think for December 16 while Manchester Airport to Blackpool could go over to EMU the number of 185s released would be similar to the number required for the proposed additional North TPE service (a Piccadilly-Selby semi-fast) but once North TPE services start switching to electrics significant changes to the TPE fleet will be needed to make effective use of the new overheads.

Its all about juggling in the interim then.
 
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northwichcat

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The need is in two stages with summer 2015 for the first and spring 2016 for the latter.

Indeed. I can't see TPE being happily agreeing to the lease back deal if it involves them keeping 4 or 5 170s and taking on a few cascaded 158s from Northern to replace the cascaded 170s opposed to having 8-9 of the same type of train even if they can operate 158s and 170s in multiple.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Which will be used to relieve overcrowding in the West Midlands......(which is how the business case for the line wiring was achieved)

The business case for wiring Chat Moss was that the DMUs released would provide extra capacity for other Northern Rail routes but that doesn't stop DfT from considering making Northern hand over some units to TPE now.
 
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