Expected changes to Northern & TPE with stock changes

[Class 170101]

How do Hazel Grove services stack up? Are they isolated or is there interworking on non electrified routes? If isolated perhaps the 319s, or the 317/7s that Greater Anglia gave up, are earmarked to start operational service asap?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Although not popular, IMHO the Todmorden Curve services should be put on the back burner until Northern or other franchisee has sufficient stock.


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Therefore, the part of the successful bid monies that went towards the cost of the Todmorden Chord should be reimbursed to the organisation responsible for that particular bid process and awarded to the second ranking bid submitter in order to belatedly allow their project to go ahead.

I can see the operators of the X43 Lancashire Witch service thinking that all their Christmases have come at once..

 

[Whistler40145]

I see your point, but if there are no trains for the Todmorden Curve, what do you do?


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[Xenophon PCDGS]

I see your point, but if there are no trains for the Todmorden Curve, what do you do?


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Unfortunately, use the X43 Lancashire Witch service.

 

[Whistler40145]

We can all put our points of view over on this subject, but Northern & FTPE have their hands tied & await to see what the DfT decide.


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[YorkshireBear]

Why should it? The curve is built and trains will operate....

 

[tbtc]

With the proposal to take away the TPE 170s earlier than envisaged I'm trying to work out what stock will be freed up and which new services have been committed to needing extra stock.

By my reckoning:

December 2014 -
* Manchester Airport to Liverpool services go over to EMUs
* Extra DMUs required to extend hourly Victoria-Todmorden service to Blackburn via Burnley

2015 -
* Other Chat Moss services go over to EMUs

May 2016 -
* Liverpool to Blackpool service could go over to EMU

December 2016 -
* Manchester Airport to Blackpool service could go over to EMU
* Hazel Grove to Preston service could go over to EMU
* Manchester Victoria to Blackpool service could go over to EMU
* Victoria-Huddersfield stopper withdrawn
* 2 x Northern services extended from Victoria to Manchester Airport via new Ordsall Chord
* TPE Airport services routed via Ordsall Chord
* New Piccadilly-Selby semi-fast service, with Piccadilly-Hull service also seeing extra stops to compensate for withdrawal of Victoria-Huddersfield stopper.
* Other North TPE changes may or may not go ahead at this stage, as could running electric services between Manchester and Lancaster in lieu of diesel services to Barrow/Windermere.
* Chat Moss services can once again run through to Stalybridge (as electric services.)

So if we forget about some of the "aspirational" stuff (like an hourly service through Denton) we might be okay if the 170s don't go south until 2016.

However, the Oxford services (which Chiltern need units for) are scheduled to start in around eighteen months.

Given that we know there are 317/7s going spare, we could probably chop a few current DMU services to allow EMUs to run part - e.g. terminate the Cleethorpes services at Manchester Piccadilly so that EMUs can shuttle from Pic to Manchester Airport... split the Preston - Hazel Grove service at Piccadilly for similar reasons (317s running to Hazel Grove)... maybe that gives us a Cleethorpes - Preston DMU service?

Whilst the 350s should release enough 185s to replace 170s on a one-for-one basis, there's obviously a need for more 185s for the "fifth path". By my reckoning, the new service will "cost" around five units (since it's effectively a new Liverpool - York service, then replacing the current TPE path from York to Newcastle), so we'll need half a dozen extra units.

Come 2016, when the North West Triangle is completed (around the same time as busy DMU routes like Falkirk High), there'll be more "breathing space". However, if Chiltern want the 170s from the opening date for their Oxford route then things look rather frustrating.

(I'm basing this on the assumption that no DMUs will be freed up by electrification elsewhere over the next eighteen months - the Whifflet/ Cumbernauld DMUs are more of a "rounding error" and will presumably stay in Scotland for capacity reasons - the rewards of CP5 electrification will generally take a couple of years to kick in)

PS: If we are going to "lose" any DMUs in northern England then I suppose that the 170s are a fairly weak link - a small non-standard fleet, relatively low seat numbers when compared with a 155/156/158 - would have rather that they remained though!

 

[Qwerty133]

Would it be at all possible for the 5 180s from FGW to be moved to TPE? If nescasery with children cascading a few 165s to FGW.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

With the way that the luck for us up North is going, the objections will be successful in putting an end to the Ordsall Chord and then we can all touch our forelocks to our Home Counties overlords and go off home on the bus...
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Why should it? The curve is built and trains will operate....

Unless TfGM sees a novel way of extending the Manchester Metrolink system..

 

[Whistler40145]

I like Qwerty133's idea with the Class 180 Adelante units.

Do FTPE drivers sign Class 180s? Are there significant differences to Class 170s?

Northern have used them, so their drivers would only require a refresher. This would then release Class 158s to FTPE.

If these units did become available, why not use them on e.g. Blackpool North to York?

If Northern takes on the Class 317/7s, is it really necessary for them to have a thorough refurbishment?

Northern take on a fleet of Class 319s with a more major refurbishment.


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[Manchester77]

I like Qwerty133's idea with the Class 180 Adelante units.
Do FTPE drivers sign Class 180s? Are there significant differences to Class 170s?
If Northern takes on the Class 317/7s, is it really necessary for them to have a thorough refurbishment?
Northern take on a fleet of Class 319s with a more major refurbishment.
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No they don't unless they've been with a TOC who has operated them in the past. I'd imagine they are since the 170s are a bombardier product and the 180s an Alstom product both being from different families. A 170 can keep to sprinter timings whereas I don't know whether a 180 could.

This has pretty much been ruled out because angel priced them too high. If they were to don't think so since a couple are transferring to FCC to allow units to go with C4s and they won't experience a full refurbishment. The 319s won't undergo any major refurbishment until the next franchise, this was confirmed by Tony Miles when he was talking about northerns direct award negotiations.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I like Qwerty133's idea with the Class 180 Adelante units. Do FTPE drivers sign Class 180s? Are there significant differences to Class 170s?

Northern have used them, so their drivers would only require a refresher. This would then release Class 158s to FTPE.

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I remember a driver on this website making unhappy comments about the condition of the three Class 180 units that were on short-term lease to Northern Rail not so long ago.

 

[IanXC]

I like Qwerty133's idea with the Class 180 Adelante units.

Do FTPE drivers sign Class 180s? Are there significant differences to Class 170s?

Northern have used them, so their drivers would only require a refresher. This would then release Class 158s to FTPE.

If these units did become available, why not use them on e.g. Blackpool North to York?

And what would you back fill with at First Great Western? De-strengthen Thames Valley commuter services?

I think we can be fairly certain that there are no TPE crew who have current traction knowledge on 180s.

Even if these issues were overcome, 180s are just not suitable for the kind of services they could be put on with Northern. Completely overspecced, and much to expensive!
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Presumably London Midlands options on a further 26 172 vehicles have expired?

 

[Wavertreelad]

True, this could certainly offer up a few new things of interest this time.



Well, There is the option originally put through for the Cumbrian Coast - The DRS operated 37 or 47 With Mk2s and DBSO? And somewhat ironically in this case DB Should also have a fair few rakes of ex Cargo D Mk3s waiting for some use.

Dft to PM and Chancellor. "We have a problem in the North, it like this...and we have brand new 68's and the BBC NW last night making it their top story, now widened to the Todmorden curve as well. What next we have a General Election next May, we can't afford to loose any more votes up there! We have to find a solution. We have an idea......"

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Would it be at all possible for the 5 180s from FGW to be moved to TPE? If nescasery with children cascading a few 165s to FGW.

Children?
Like these? http://www.gyermekvasut.hu/english/page.php?16

 

[northwichcat]

I remember a driver on this website making unhappy comments about the condition of the three Class 180 units that were on short-term lease to Northern Rail not so long ago.

I recall someone made a comment about Angel Trains saying they were returned in an unacceptable condition and issued an invoice for bringing the trains back to an acceptable usable standard.
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Given that we know there are 317/7s going spare, we could probably chop a few current DMU services to allow EMUs to run part - e.g. terminate the Cleethorpes services at Manchester Piccadilly so that EMUs can shuttle from Pic to Manchester Airport... split the Preston - Hazel Grove service at Piccadilly for similar reasons (317s running to Hazel Grove)... maybe that gives us a Cleethorpes - Preston DMU service?

An issue with revising services is the change needs to be put up for consultation and the ORR have to make a decision on the change.

Northern do have to provide a direct service between Stockport and Bolton as part of their franchise so if you split Hazel Grove to Preston then you'd need to extend either the Chester or Buxton service to Preston which would probably then require the recast they wanted to avoid until the next WCML recast. Trains from Oxford Road terminating at Piccadilly are difficult to accommodate which is probably why there are so many Oxford Road to Airport services. And after all that you'd only free up one DMU.
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Although not popular, IMHO the Todmorden Curve services should be put on the back burner until Northern or other franchisee has sufficient stock.

Lancashire CC have provided funding for the service to run for 2 years from December 2014 to December 2016.
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She was being interviewed on the BBC tv 1830 North-West News tonight.

Link to the program here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b03wwvhl/North_West_Tonight_04_03_2014/

She refers to a cascade from Northern Rail to TransPennine Express as unacceptable and a complete shambles and goes on to say TPE need proper rolling stock.

 

[Beveridges]

Bringing in some LHCS would solve all problems. No shortage of stock with DRS and Riveria Trains. DRS have just introduced a new Class 68 loco which is eminently suitable for passenger work. Northern should be forced to use it by the DFT. Passengers have to stand while plenty of suitable rolling stock remains unused. Pacers remain on long-distance 1 hr 30+ min routes when this does not have to be the case. LHCS could free up some 15X's which can be used to replace the Pacers on the work that is most unsuited to them (e.g. Picc-Chester/Sheffield, BPN-Colne).

 

[47802]

Bringing in some LHCS would solve all problems. No shortage of stock with DRS and Riveria Trains. DRS have just introduced a new Class 68 loco which is eminently suitable for passenger work.

Too expensive and if there were to be any temp Loco haulage it would be more sensible for Chiltern to do it as they already have some.

I imagine some kind of fudge will be worked so that the 170's stay until enough Northern units are released by electrification to cover TPX and the Todmorden curve, and maybe TPX may not get all the units they need to entirely replace the 170's either, but of course that just delays even longer any relief to overcrowding on other routes

 

[Beveridges]

Too expensive and if there were to be any temp Loco haulage it would be more sensible for Chiltern to do it as they already have some.

180's were very expensive but Northern (rightly) used them to help with capacity and quality. It was almost a crime how Northern had to give up quality like 3x 180's & 4x 156's in exchange for a load of run down manky ex-LM 150's back in 2011. As if Northern didn't already have enough run down stock in Greater Manchester already!

 

[Bantamzen]

Too expensive and if there were to be any temp Loco haulage it would be more sensible for Chiltern to do it as they already have some.

Indeed, Chiltern have longer routes better suited to loco hauled services than Northern I would say.

I imagine some kind of fudge will be worked so that the 170's stay until enough Northern units are released by electrification to cover TPX and the Todmorden curve, and maybe TPX may not get all the units they need to entirely replace the 170's either.

This will be a big problem as even with the planned 5tph on the North TP route from May, I suspect capacity will still be stretched so any net loss in the future when they do lose the 170s is going to be a bit of a bombshell.

One thing that does occur to me though, what impact will these franchising problems have on the bids for the forthcoming renewals of the TP & Northern operations? It hardly sends out the right message to companies tabling bids does it?

"You're free to table your bids, but be aware that we reserve the right to take the carpet from under your feet at any time & send your stock elsewhere at the drop of a hat, whilst we fudge together yet another temporary solution..."

 

[47802]

180's were very expensive but Northern (rightly) used them to help with capacity and quality. It was almost a crime how Northern had to give up quality like 3x 180's & 4x 156's in exchange for a load of run down manky ex-LM 150's back in 2011. As if Northern didn't already have enough run down stock in Greater Manchester already!

Indeed but 180's were OTT for Northern and as EMT don't operate 150's clearly 156's were really the only choice.

Unless Daft give some money to Northern to cover the extra cost of Loco Haulage it isn't going to happen is it?

 

[northwichcat]

180's were very expensive but Northern (rightly) used them to help with capacity and quality. It was almost a crime how Northern had to give up quality like 3x 180's & 4x 156's in exchange for a load of run down manky ex-LM 150's back in 2011. As if Northern didn't already have enough run down stock in Greater Manchester already!

Northern only got the 180s because the LO 150s weren't released in time for the December 2012 timetable change. If they had been released on time those units would have gone to Northern, as they were released late and Northern already had the 3 x 180s FGW got their paws on the LO 150s when they were released.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

"You're free to table your bids, but be aware that we reserve the right to take the carpet from under your feet at any time & send your stock elsewhere at the drop of a hat, whilst we fudge together yet another temporary solution..."

TPE, Chiltern and Porterbrook are private companies and can make what contracts they like with their assets.
TPE still has to deliver its franchise contract in terms of frequency/capacity etc.
Long-term the 170s were not going to stay with a mostly-electric TP franchise.
TPE will soon have 40 extra vehicles and are losing 18.
That's still a good uplift in capacity.

 

[northwichcat]

Long-term the 170s were not going to stay with a mostly-electric TP franchise.
TPE will soon have 40 extra vehicles and are losing 18.
That's still a good uplift in capacity.

It could have been TPE gave up the 185s and got more 170s from somewhere to run the non electric TPE services and also the overnight services which don't follow the standard route either due to closures or for crew knowledge retention.

TPE will soon have 40 extra vehicles and are losing 18.
That's still a good uplift in capacity.

Never mind the HLOS for CP4 had them getting 40 additional vehicles by December 2012 and not losing a single carriage or that the 350/4s will be exclusively used on a route TPE had added to their franchise originally without any additional rolling stock to run it.

 

[joeykins82]

The government of the day wanted free market economics on the railways when they designed the privatisation, and that's exactly what they've got here.

TOCs can only lease rolling stock for the duration of their franchise, and there's no incentive for them to buy stock themselves in case they lose that franchise. I can't see Stagecoach leasing trains from FirstGroup's ROSCO arm for example.

ROSCOs aren't going to take a punt on a massive order of new build DMUs for a TOC with an 8 year franchise (and thus only signing an 8-year lease) because there may be nowhere to send them at the end of it. If they up the leasing costs to cover that investment in the initial lease period then it'll be uneconomical for the TOCs without a massive DfT subsidy. The demand for DMUs for the next 10 years is high, but by the end of CP6 there could be an abundance of spare diesel stock displaced by the rolling electrification programme currently underway.

Chiltern can generate revenue to the ROSCO for the next 8 years, FTPE can't.

Like I said before, it's unintended consequences at play, and the only solution that I can see is for an order of 110mph bi-mode EDMUs to be placed to operate services where further electrification is planned and where demand is currently (or will soon be) outstripping capacity. One train type capable of operating from OHLE AC, 3rd rail DC or a diesel generator; capable of having the DC pickup and the generator easily added or removed as required, and capable of making that changeover at line speed should be more appealing to the ROSCOs and to the TOCs.

 

[Starmill]

I found it remarkable that North West Tonight devoted nearly half of their time to Transport issues TWO days on the run - and more to the point, how few mistakes there were and how well they managed to report on the cascade/capacity dilemma! It's good that this has caused a bit of outrage - not that I think that'll be enough to stop it...

 

[northwichcat]

Considering one BBC North West Tonight mentioned option under consideration is cascading trains from Northern to TPE, does anyone know what the other options under consideration are?
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Like I said before, it's unintended consequences at play, and the only solution that I can see is for an order of 110mph bi-mode EDMUs to be placed to operate services where further electrification is planned and where demand is currently (or will soon be) outstripping capacity.

Given we've got around 12 months to get replacement units to TPE do you really think an ITT for a new type of train is the solution to the problem?

 

[HSTEd]

Why would there be a gradual rundown of the Pacer fleet?

Wouldn't it be better to keep all the Pacers operating for as long as possible for extra capacity?
Its not like anything is lost by keeping them around for additional years considering how cheap they are.

 

[swt_passenger]

Considering one BBC North West Tonight mentioned option under consideration is cascading trains from Northern to TPE, does anyone know what the other options under consideration are?

I'd expect a main one is transferring routes (or parts of routes) from TPE to Northern. We'd obviously discussed it back in 2012, but might be forgetting to take into account that one of the implications of the HLOS 'illustrated options' was that places like Scarborough and Middlesborough came off the TPE route map...

 

[northwichcat]

I'd expect a main one is transferring routes (or parts of routes) from TPE to Northern. We'd obviously discussed it back in 2012, but might be forgetting to take into account that one of the implications of the HLOS 'illustrated options' was that places like Scarborough and Middlesborough came off the TPE route map...

We don't know what the route map will look like for the next TPE franchise. People talk about York-Scarborough going to Northern to be added on to Northern's Blackpool-York service but it might be Blackpool-York going to TPE.

Middlesbrough-York electrification is now under consideration by DfT so while the current proposal is for 4tph between Manchester and York with half terminating there and the other half going to Newcastle, that might change if York-Middlesbrough gets electrified.