northern electrification and Crewe-Chester

[transmanche]

I can only use what is available my post 89 came from Welsh Government and ORR sources they choose to break down the figures as intra Wales between Unitary Authorities and outside Wales not me.

So you're using figures that aren't relevant, merely because you believe they support your point of view.

What is clear is that the official figures for travel between North Wales UA and South Wales UA's is 70,000 per annum 1.23% of the total rail use in North Wales. Are you saying this is wrong?

I'm saying that they are not relevant to the point I'm making. You're hung up on the number of long-distance through passengers (whether between Cardiff and Holyhead, or just between North Wales UAs & South Wales UAs).

The point I have made (on numerous occasions) is that the Cardiff-Holyhead through service provides a lot of opportunities for passengers to make journeys without changing (journeys that cross the 'interchange points' of Shrewsbury & Chester; such as those I mentioned in post #91) - passengers that value the current service pattern and passengers that you prefer to ignore.

 

[Gareth Marston]

So you're using figures that aren't relevant, merely because you believe they support your point of view.

I'm saying that they are not relevant to the point I'm making. You're hung up on the number of long-distance through passengers (whether between Cardiff and Holyhead, or just between North Wales UAs & South Wales UAs).

The point I have made (on numerous occasions) is that the Cardiff-Holyhead through service provides a lot of opportunities for passengers to make journeys without changing (journeys that cross the 'interchange points' of Shrewsbury & Chester; such as those I mentioned in post #91) - passengers that value the current service pattern and passengers that you prefer to ignore.

Yes there's lots of through journey opportunities between places provided by the Cardiff to Holyheads but your never going to proof that N Wales to Gobowen through to Hereford is anything more than a small market. The flows into the North West, within N Wales and to London and the South East are always going to trump it in terms of passengers and revenue. I can think of no other area where perhaps the fifth or sixth ranked market drives the service pattern and potentially might impact on future investment negatively as they will be a reason that holds back the business case to electrify unless done in conjunction with Chester to Shrewsbury and Crewe to Newport.

 

[tbtc]

The point I have made (on numerous occasions) is that the Cardiff-Holyhead through service provides a lot of opportunities for passengers to make journeys without changing (journeys that cross the 'interchange points' of Shrewsbury & Chester; such as those I mentioned in post #91) - passengers that value the current service pattern and passengers that you prefer to ignore.

I think that the vast majority of people who use a Cardiff - Holyhead service wouldn't be inconvenienced by splitting the service at Chester.

So if splitting the services at Chester is the price to pay for electrification (i.e. by both of the services west of Chester come from electrified destinations like Manchester or Crewe) then I think its a small price to pay.

Would be worth keeping a token through service like W&W used to run (from Holyhead to Cardiff in the morning, going back at teatime), though maybe not with a "Premium" coach.

 

[6Gman]

I think that the vast majority of people who use a Cardiff - Holyhead service wouldn't be inconvenienced by splitting the service at Chester.

So if splitting the services at Chester is the price to pay for electrification (i.e. by both of the services west of Chester come from electrified destinations like Manchester or Crewe) then I think its a small price to pay.

Would be worth keeping a token through service like W&W used to run (from Holyhead to Cardiff in the morning, going back at teatime), though maybe not with a "Premium" coach.

When I'm at Chester and see a North Wales - S Wales/ Brum train (or northbound equivalent) there always seems to be a huge turnover of passengers! The Llandudno - Manchester seems to have much less "churn", and quite a lot of those who alight from the 158 from Holyhead seem to head for the Crewe train (and v.v.).

Just saying.

 

[transmanche]

When I'm at Chester and see a North Wales - S Wales/ Brum train (or northbound equivalent) there always seems to be a huge turnover of passengers!

That's to be expected at a major station and the 'turnover' is naturally to be more noticeable on platform 2 than on platform 4. But like I said earlier, personal observations are unreliable as they tend to reinforce one's pre-existing view.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

So if splitting the services at Chester is the price to pay for electrification (i.e. by both of the services west of Chester come from electrified destinations like Manchester or Crewe) then I think its a small price to pay.

If splitting the service at Chester is for the 'greater good' (i.e. the price to be paid for NW Coast electrification), then that's a different matter.

But some people want the service to be split at Chester just because they don't like it...
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Yes there's lots of through journey opportunities between places provided by the Cardiff to Holyheads but your never going to proof that N Wales to Gobowen through to Hereford is anything more than a small market.

And you can't prove the contrary - the figures are not in the public domain.

 

[kieron]

If the North Wales coast line is wired then perhaps it might be a good idea to electrify the branch to Blaenau festiniog if only to remove a diesel island.

It's not really an issue. The Conwy Valley uses Sprinters from Crewe. There would still be plenty of need for those even if Crewe-Holyhead and Llandudno-Llandudno Junction were electrified.

For the last time it is not me who is suggesting diverting Cardiff to Holyhead trains to Liverpool please read the previous posts.

I would never suggest otherwise.

No one will wire the North Wales Coast when most of the trains west of Llandudno Junction will be long distance DMU's

I would rather they wire the North Wales Coast when no passenger trains are running at all, as I feel it would be safer that way.

I don't know why you believe that most of the trains running west of Llandudno Junction would be long distance DMUs if the North Wales coast was wired and the relevant TOCs had plenty of suitable EMUs, however.

 

[Gareth Marston]

It's not really an issue. The Conwy Valley uses Sprinters from Crewe. There would still be plenty of need for those even if Crewe-Holyhead and Llandudno-Llandudno Junction were electrified.

I would never suggest otherwise.

I would rather they wire the North Wales Coast when no passenger trains are running at all, as I feel it would be safer that way.

I don't know why you believe that most of the trains running west of Llandudno Junction would be long distance DMUs if the North Wales coast was wired and the relevant TOCs had plenty of suitable EMUs, however.

Because the Welsh Government wants to run an hourly frequency Cardiff to Holyhead service, there's also the through trains from Birmingham that come via non wired Shrewsbury as well to consider. Conwy valley is indeed a diesl island headache but a nice one to have if so as this means wires on the coast.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

That's to be expected at a major station and the 'turnover' is naturally to be more noticeable on platform 2 than on platform 4. But like I said earlier, personal observations are unreliable as they tend to reinforce one's pre-existing view.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
If splitting the service at Chester is for the 'greater good' (i.e. the price to be paid for NW Coast electrification), then that's a different matter.

But some people want the service to be split at Chester just because they don't like it...
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
And you can't prove the contrary - the figures are not in the public domain.

My whole point about the relative size of the markets is to point out that the greater good lies on given the vast bulk of passengers the electric service. Though I have never advocated complete withdrawal of through north to south trains and believe a genuine 3/4 a day could survive.

 

[merlodlliw]

On another matter,but effecting the wires?, The WG Minister for rail has replied to the request of the Chair of the WG Enterprise & Business Committee about the Trans European Network in Wales(TEN T Routes), the letter has been circulated to all AMs due to interest.

I can not put the letter up(2 pages) on a public domain, but if any RF members wish to see it please PM me with an e mail address for a copy.

In the letter the Minister says, "Holyhead is not seen as a core port corridor in the final draft" which surprised me along with other comments

 

[transmanche]

My whole point about the relative size of the markets is to point out that the greater good lies on given the vast bulk of passengers the electric service.

Your whole point is a massive assumption...

 

[merlodlliw]

That's to be expected at a major station and the 'turnover' is naturally to be more noticeable on platform 2 than on platform 4. But like I said earlier, personal observations are unreliable as they tend to reinforce one's pre-existing view.

Why is turnover more noticeable on Platform two than four at Chester.

 

[transmanche]

Why is turnover more noticeable on Platform two than four at Chester.

Simply because of the layout of the station.

All passengers from platform 2 (where the Cardiff-Holyhead trains reverse) will pass the congested area by the exit gates (whether they are exiting, going over the footbridge, accessing platforms 1&3, or the excess fare window).

But passengers from platform 4 (where the Llandudno-Manchester trains usually go from) have a larger circulating area and cross-platform interchange with Merseyrail and Mid-Cheshire line services; so they're not as noticeable.

 

[Greybeard33]

Perhaps the borders of the Wales and Borders franchise should be redrawn, now political control of it has been devolved to the Welsh Government? Manchester to Chester via Warrington, Manchester to Cardiff via Shrewsbury and Hereford, Chester to Cardiff via Shrewsbury and Hereford, and Birmingham to Chester via Shrewsbury are all services that are wholly or predominantly within England and on which many passengers both start and finish their journeys in England. There seems to be no overwhelming logistical reason why all these services have to be mated with services from Chester to Holyhead/Llandudno or from Cardiff to Camarthen/Milford Haven/Pembroke Dock. For service patterns between English cities to be subject to diktat from Cardiff seems like a case of the Welsh tail WAGging the English dog!

If these Borders services were transferred to the Northern/West Midlands/Greater Western franchises, might this not facilitate reconfiguration of linkages through Chester to improve the business case for progressive electrification of the lines?

 

[transmanche]

For service patterns between English cities to be subject to diktat from Cardiff seems like a case of the Welsh tail WAGging the English dog!

I'd have thought it was fairly obvious why the franchise includes services in England as well. Being as there's no North Wales-South Wales railway within Wales, connections between North Wales, Mid Wales and South Wales have to go through England. And I fail to see how (for example) splitting the Manchester-North Wales services into Manchester-Chester and Chester-North Wales sections operated separately by 'English' and 'Welsh' franchises is actually going to improve matters for anyone.

Would you also stop Virgin services from going beyond Chester? Or FGW services from going beyond Severn Tunnel Junction?

(As an aside, it hasn't been called the Welsh Assembly Government (WAG) since 2011.)

 

[edwin_m]

It would certainly seem sensible for the Crewe-Chester shuttles to go to Northern or its successor, and also any future Warrington-Chester service that doesn't continue into Wales. This would be the most likely outcome if these lines are electrified but the Coast and Wrexham lines aren't, as they would just be added to the EMU diagrams serving the Manchester-Liverpool area.

However the route via Shrewsbury and Hereford seems to belong in the Wales franchise despite much of it being in England. Any service using this route is also going to be serving at least one major community in Wales, unless it's a rather pointless short distance shuttle.

 

[HSTEd]

Perhaps I could propose an even more absurd idea...... if we Crewe-Chester electrification then perhaps the new dual voltage Merseyrail stock could simply run through?
The short journey time on the shuttle means the spartan interior won't be much of a problem for those passengers while it might be useful to have the through journey opportunities?

 

[merlodlliw]

Simply because of the layout of the station.

All passengers from platform 2 (where the Cardiff-Holyhead trains reverse) will pass the congested area by the exit gates (whether they are exiting, going over the footbridge, accessing platforms 1&3, or the excess fare window).

But passengers from platform 4 (where the Llandudno-Manchester trains usually go from) have a larger circulating area and cross-platform interchange with Merseyrail and Mid-Cheshire line services; so they're not as noticeable.

Dont some Cardiff/Holyhead trains use platform four & three?, but thanks for your personal opinion on "noticeable opportunities"

 

[pablo]

Perhaps I could propose an even more absurd idea...... if we Crewe-Chester electrification then perhaps the new dual voltage Merseyrail stock could simply run through?
The short journey time on the shuttle means the spartan interior won't be much of a problem for those passengers while it might be useful to have the through journey opportunities?

I've been advocating that for some while. But Merseyrail do not appear to be enthusiastic. Perhaps it's too soon to be thinking of it. It's certainly not on their current wish list. And, Merseyrail is about to embark on a light refurb so replacement doesn't look as though it's any time soon. In my view the 507/508s are better than the 150s that are the current fare. The through journey would be very welcome. Meanwhile, I'd prefer to see VT doing the shuttle, perhaps using those two spare Voyager end cars. They did it with five-car Voyagers for route training when the Pendo/Voyager change occurred some time ago. ATW's shuttle alternates with VT's EUS-Chester/Wrecsam/Caergybi.

Whilst the C-C shuttle may look like a nice symetrical part of ATW's empire on the map, in practice it's an oddity and doesn't integrate too well with the rest of the franchise. Perhaps one reason why we see such a menagerie of stock doing the shuttle.

 

[Greybeard33]

I'd have thought it was fairly obvious why the franchise includes services in England as well. Being as there's no North Wales-South Wales railway within Wales, connections between North Wales, Mid Wales and South Wales have to go through England. And I fail to see how (for example) splitting the Manchester-North Wales services into Manchester-Chester and Chester-North Wales sections operated separately by 'English' and 'Welsh' franchises is actually going to improve matters for anyone.

Would you also stop Virgin services from going beyond Chester? Or FGW services from going beyond Severn Tunnel Junction?

I see no reason why Northern and London Midland services should not continue into Wales, as Virgin and First Great Western services already do, instead of ATW running to Manchester and Birmingham.

If (tongue in cheek) there is such demand for N-S connections in Wales, perhaps the WG could make a business case for reopening of the Beechinged Cambrian Main Line from Oswestry to Welshpool and from Newtown to Builth Wells via Llandidloes and Rhayader?

However the route via Shrewsbury and Hereford seems to belong in the Wales franchise despite much of it being in England. Any service using this route is also going to be serving at least one major community in Wales, unless it's a rather pointless short distance shuttle.

My wife is from Hereford, so I am aware that its citizens are proud of their English identity and feel disenfranchised by the current arrangements. While I would not wish to denigrate the attractions of Anglesey or Pembrokeshire, I am sure that Herefordians, were they given the opportunity, would vote for the restoration of through services to London via Newport.

 

[transmanche]

Dont some Cardiff/Holyhead trains use platform four & three?, but thanks for your personal opinion on "noticeable opportunities"

Some might, but all the ones I use run into platform 2. Oh and thanks for the sarcasm...

 

[merlodlliw]

Some might, but all the ones I use run into platform 2. Oh and thanks for the sarcasm...

No sarcasm intended.perhaps I could have rephrased my response better.Gerald used platform three when I last used the train.

Bob

 

[transmanche]

No sarcasm intended.perhaps I could have rephrased my response better.Gerald used platform three when I last used the train.

I was merely reiterating my earlier point about how personal observations are (unconsciously) affected by confirmation bias and selective recall - and demonstrating how that might work in practice.

 

[Cheshire Rover]

What may play into the mix is the Halton Curve of course (or as it may be known soo the Mersey-Dee Link.

Merseytravel have agreed to fund the research into the project.
http://www.placenorthwest.co.uk/news/archive/15075-rail-link-reinstatement-progresses.html

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Perhaps I could propose an even more absurd idea...... if we Crewe-Chester electrification then perhaps the new dual voltage Merseyrail stock could simply run through?
The short journey time on the shuttle means the spartan interior won't be much of a problem for those passengers while it might be useful to have the through journey opportunities?

Not absurd at all - with updated dual-voltage stock like 319s (if allowed through the Mersey loop tunnel).
There's plenty of suppressed demand on the Wirral for journeys beyond Chester.
They might also make it to Wrexham if the wires go in.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I see no reason why Northern and London Midland services should not continue into Wales, as Virgin and First Great Western services already do, instead of ATW running to Manchester and Birmingham.

If (tongue in cheek) there is such demand for N-S connections in Wales, perhaps the WG could make a business case for reopening of the Beechinged Cambrian Main Line from Oswestry to Welshpool and from Newtown to Builth Wells via Llandidloes and Rhayader?

My wife is from Hereford, so I am aware that its citizens are proud of their English identity and feel disenfranchised by the current arrangements. While I would not wish to denigrate the attractions of Anglesey or Pembrokeshire, I am sure that Herefordians, were they given the opportunity, would vote for the restoration of through services to London via Newport.

Oswestry was one of a handful of the high earning category stations to close and a mistake. The line from Gobowen southward to Llynclys Junction stayed for the freight and the route is intact, the Cambrian heritage Railways have got hold of the trackbed to Llanymynanch leaving a 7 mile stretch from there to Buttington Jnc the piers still exist on the bridge over the Vyrnwy. You could probably reopen the Gobowen Oswestry Welshpool section for less money than the proposed Pant/Llanymynach bypass the local MP wants.

 

[merlodlliw]

Oswestry was one of a handful of the high earning category stations to close and a mistake. The line from Gobowen southward to Llynclys Junction stayed for the freight and the route is intact, the Cambrian heritage Railways have got hold of the trackbed to Llanymynanch leaving a 7 mile stretch from there to Buttington Jnc the piers still exist on the bridge over the Vyrnwy. You could probably reopen the Gobowen Oswestry Welshpool section for less money than the proposed Pant/Llanymynach bypass the local MP wants.

Indeed it is intact,the second busiest road in North Wales The A483(Wrexham Expressway Oswestry/Chester) has the line running across it between Oswestry & Gobowen.

 

[eps200]

Not absurd at all - with updated dual-voltage stock like 319s (if allowed through the Mersey loop tunnel).
There's plenty of suppressed demand on the Wirral for journeys beyond Chester.
They might also make it to Wrexham if the wires go in.

This would be incredibly useful for Wirral, that interchange is a nightmare being in opposite corners of the station.
Had to sprint that many times on the way to/ from anywhere south of Manchester.

 

[anthony263]

My wife is from Hereford, so I am aware that its citizens are proud of their English identity and feel disenfranchised by the current arrangements. While I would not wish to denigrate the attractions of Anglesey or Pembrokeshire, I am sure that Herefordians, were they given the opportunity, would vote for the restoration of through services to London via Newport.

I am sure some people would like to the restoration of direct services between Hereford/Abergavenny & Bristol via Newport. Pity with dmu's to save on paths trains could split/attach to services from Cardiff to Taunton/Portsmouth Hbr at Newport

 

[edwin_m]

Not absurd at all - with updated dual-voltage stock like 319s (if allowed through the Mersey loop tunnel).
There's plenty of suppressed demand on the Wirral for journeys beyond Chester.
They might also make it to Wrexham if the wires go in.

First time I read this I thought it was crazy, but on further thought it's definitely growing on me. I suppose the key question is whether Merseyrail go for dual-voltage, or continue as a self-contained railway and buy something more like S stock.

 

[tbtc]

I am sure some people would like to the restoration of direct services between Hereford/Abergavenny & Bristol via Newport

I am one of those people.

Sadly, everything down the Marches route that Wales & Borders operates has to go to Cardiff - anyone wanting to travel from Hereford to Bristol has little influence over the decision makers at Cardiff Bay.

First time I read this I thought it was crazy, but on further thought it's definitely growing on me. I suppose the key question is whether Merseyrail go for dual-voltage, or continue as a self-contained railway and buy something more like S stock.

Unless they get something old from the London area (I'm not seriously suggesting 455s, before anyone jumps down my throat about tunnel clearances, just using them as an example of something "DC" that couldn't easily be converted to dual voltage), I presumed that anything ordered to replace the 507s/508s would have to be at least capable of "AC"?

But, now you mention "S Stock" style trains... that's an interesting idea, one that I'd not considered before.

 

[transmanche]

First time I read this I thought it was crazy, but on further thought it's definitely growing on me. I suppose the key question is whether Merseyrail go for dual-voltage, or continue as a self-contained railway and buy something more like S stock.

I'm sure that Bombardier could supply dual-voltage Movia trains if asked. Even 'passive provision' would make it easier to upgrade the surface sections of Merseyrail to AC as and when the DC equipment becomes life-expired.