northern electrification and Crewe-Chester

[Holly]

The only practical alternative for Crewe-Chester electrification to building a new line would be to close the line for six months or more so that the bridges can be replaced without having to take precauations like those taken for working on railway lines.
Temporary road surfaces across the trackbeds and such things.
But I doubt a six month closure would go down well. ...

The same people who would oppose a new right of way would oppose both a six month closure and the demolition of so many historic (albeit very unexceptional 150 years ago) overbridges.

Some people dedicate their lives to opposing anything that benefits others but not themselves.

One has to not lose sight that this is a realatively inexpensive place to build a new line with modern features and a difficult and expensive existing line to upgrade that wouldn't be all that wonderful in the end. The gut reaction that it is cheaper to upgrade than replace applies less here. It might be a little cheaper to buy something that is vastly inferior. Turning back HS-captive trains at Chester (or even Hooton or Birkenhead) when HS2 finally reaches Phase 2 is a possibility. Meanwhile it is a good place to do a pilot HS construction (and operation) which can afford to learn by making inevitable minor mistakes (unlike OOC which cannot).

And yes, Chester station could be expanded to the North, and Crewe station expanded to the West with incompatible platforms.

 

[snowball]

Is it fact or speculation that the bridges are more difficult on this line than on other lines?

Is there any evidence that Network Rail has considered building a new line?

 

[HSTEd]

Each individual bridge is not a problem
The problem is the shear number of them in such a short stretch of line.

 

[edwin_m]

Yes, it is possible to do this at a rate of several bridges during a closure.
But as I am sure you are aware doing that is insanely expensive.
With as many bridges to replace as Crewe-Chester, it may prove cheaper to simply close the line for the duration.

If weekend closures are possible then I don't see how it would be "insanely" more expensive than building bridges off-line, and certainly no more expensive than replacing the whole line bridges and all.

Crewe is a little more difficult but I think you can fit a pair of 400m platform faces west of the existing platforms and smooth out the curve by taking away a little bit of what appears to be an adjacent car park.
A slalom isn't necessarily a major problem since Chester trains would still call at Crewe in all likelyhood.

Not sure that would work, as all planned HS2 stations have straight platforms and this would still be on a curve albeit less tight than otherwise.

 

[snowball]

The same people who would oppose a new right of way would oppose both a six month closure and the demolition of so many historic (albeit very unexceptional 150 years ago) overbridges.

Some people dedicate their lives to opposing anything that benefits others but not themselves.

A new line would have to go through elaborate approval procedures, giving those people ten times as much opportunity to express their objections and possibly kill the scheme. Even if it went ahead, it would add several years to the timescale.

 

[quantinghome]

I have had a quick look at costs of new build and electrification schemes to provide some basis for comparison.

HS2 phase 2: 210 miles & £12.5 Billion - £60 million per mile

Northwest electrification phase 1: 16 miles & £60 million - £4 million per mile

Given there are no major stations for the Crewe to Chester new build option and fewer earthworks the new build option could be reduced to £20 million per mile. Structural enabling works are generally a small part of an electrification scheme, but let's be generous and double the scheme cost to £8million per mile in this case. This is still well below the cost of the new build option.

This comparison and the fact that no previous electrification schemes have required new stretches of line to be built are pretty compelling evidence against a new build option.

 

[swt_passenger]

The most recent announcement is quoted in this post (though the poster was in error to use the terms 'Pinch Point Fund' and 'Tranche 4' - they applied to part of a simultaneous roads announcement).

Thanks for the correction - I think I must have misread the way the DfT's press release was punctuated. I'll take the opportunity to correct the original slightly.

 

[kevconnor]

Moving further west than Chester, it has been widely tipped as a desire for the north Wales line to be electrified, would anyone be able to say what engineering would be required here in respect of the parts of the line that run along side the coast. We have just had a number of weeks of bad weather which has directly impacted on this line and last time i checked water and live electrics don't react too well together.

 

[thenorthern]

Moving further west than Chester, it has been widely tipped as a desire for the north Wales line to be electrified, would anyone be able to say what engineering would be required here in respect of the parts of the line that run along side the coast. We have just had a number of weeks of bad weather which has directly impacted on this line and last time i checked water and live electrics don't react too well together.

Conway Bridge would be a problem and as most trains run to Birmingham International or Cardiff Central the Chester-Shrewsbury, Birmingham to Shrewsbury and Shrewsbury to Cardiff would need to be electrified as well.

 

[edwin_m]

Most media carried at least one picture of the sea washing over the track and OLE at Saltcoats (an appropriate name if there ever was!). It might be necessary to stop the trains and/or turn the power off in the worst conditions but it doesn't seem to be a major problem. This sort of weather is much less common in North Wales than on some other sea wall sections.

 

[snowball]

Conway Bridge would be a problem

It's not obvious that it would be a problem. It depends on the internal dimensions of the tubes. Anyone know what they are?

and as most trains run to Birmingham International or Cardiff Central the Chester-Shrewsbury, Birmingham to Shrewsbury and Shrewsbury to Cardiff would need to be electrified as well.

As I said in post #45 of this thread, you can overdo that argument and end up not electrifying anything.

 

[TheWalrus]

Conway Bridge would be a problem

It's not obvious that it would be a problem. It depends on the internal dimensions of the tubes. Anyone know what they are?

and as most trains run to Birmingham International or Cardiff Central the Chester-Shrewsbury, Birmingham to Shrewsbury and Shrewsbury to Cardiff would need to be electrified as well.

As I said in post #45 of this thread, you can overdo that argument and end up not electrifying anything.

I'm guessing if North Wales was electrified they would run an hourly EMU Crewe-Holyhead, make the Llandudnos EMU with the West Coast services then services from Cardiff/Birmingham terminate at Chester.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I'm guessing if North Wales was electrified they would run an hourly EMU Crewe-Holyhead, make the Llandudnos EMU with the West Coast services then services from Cardiff/Birmingham terminate at Chester.

What would then happen to the Llandudno Junction to Blaenau Ffestiniog line. Would this remain a diesel-served adjunct ?

 

[edwin_m]

Blaenau electrification has been discussed on another thread very recently, just don't ask me which one. Certainly not to do with Crewe-Chester!

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Blaenau electrification has been discussed on another thread very recently, just don't ask me which one. Certainly not to do with Crewe-Chester!

My posting was in response to that made by TheWalrus on this very thread as the line in question in my posting would be affected by his electrification proposals. My posting made no referral whatsoever to the electrification of the branch to Blaenau Ffestiniog.

I am not in the habit of asking forum members to refer to what is said on one thread to answer a question posed upon another thread.

 

[anthony263]

If the North Wales coast line is wired then perhaps it might be a good idea to electrify the branch to Blaenau festiniog if only to remove a diesel island.

I do think you will have some locals kicking up a fuss about it spoiling the landscape a bit like those in Bath

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I'm guessing if North Wales was electrified they would run an hourly EMU Crewe-Holyhead, make the Llandudnos EMU with the West Coast services then services from Cardiff/Birmingham terminate at Chester.

Which takes us back to about 2003, pre-ATW
Then the only other through working west of Chester was a single W&W Cardiff-Holyhead service (via Crewe), and all Birmingham trains via Shrewsbury turned round at Chester.

 

[anthony263]

Which takes us back to about 2003, pre-ATW
Then the only other through working west of Chester was a single W&W Cardiff-Holyhead service (via Crewe), and all Birmingham trains via Shrewsbury turned round at Chester.

The stock saved by not running through to Holyhead could perhaps allow the Birmingham - Shrewsbury - Chester service to run hourly allowing the 2 hourly service from Cardiff which at the moment runs to Holyhead to perhaps run to Liverpool via Crewe if stock/paths are availble.

I have not really ever seen any people travel directly from Cardiff to Holyhead except for AM's etc. It is certainly not too hard for them to change trains at Crwe or Chester surely?

 

[TDK]

The stock saved by not running through to Holyhead could perhaps allow the Birmingham - Shrewsbury - Chester service to run hourly allowing the 2 hourly service from Cardiff which at the moment runs to Holyhead to perhaps run to Liverpool via Crewe if stock/paths are availble.

I have not really ever seen any people travel directly from Cardiff to Holyhead except for AM's etc. It is certainly not too hard for them to change trains at Crwe or Chester surely?

Then it goes to show that you do not travel the route very often, there are many passengers who travel from Cardiff to Holyhead and also from many of the intermediate stations. Passengers prefer a direct route instead of changing. Currently the unit diagrams have to be so class 158's carry out the work from Brum to HHD due to the fact that the units are later used on the Cambrian. W & W used to run to Liverpool from Cardiff (Bristol TM) but the route was taken off them when ATW took over from them when First lost the North Wales Coast so I cannot see them getting anything to Liverpool.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Which takes us back to about 2003, pre-ATW
Then the only other through working west of Chester was a single W&W Cardiff-Holyhead service (via Crewe), and all Birmingham trains via Shrewsbury turned round at Chester.

And to add off peak from intermediate stations was 1 train every 2 hours.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

If the North Wales coast line is wired then perhaps it might be a good idea to electrify the branch to Blaenau festiniog if only to remove a diesel island.

I do think you will have some locals kicking up a fuss about it spoiling the landscape a bit like those in Bath

That would be a complete waste of money and will never happen because it is a Diesel Island

 

[tbtc]

The stock saved by not running through to Holyhead could perhaps allow the Birmingham - Shrewsbury - Chester service to run hourly allowing the 2 hourly service from Cardiff which at the moment runs to Holyhead to perhaps run to Liverpool via Crewe if stock/paths are availble

Hourly Cardiff - Manchester
+ Hourly Cardiff - Chester (1tpd to Holyhead)

= Hourly Birmingham - Aberystwyth?

Then it goes to show that you do not travel the route very often, there are many passengers who travel from Cardiff to Holyhead and also from many of the intermediate stations. Passengers prefer a direct route instead of changing. Currently the unit diagrams have to be so class 158's carry out the work from Brum to HHD due to the fact that the units are later used on the Cambrian. W & W used to run to Liverpool from Cardiff (Bristol TM) but the route was taken off them when ATW took over from them when First lost the North Wales Coast so I cannot see them getting anything to Liverpool

If they are spending money on the chord at Halton, then...

 

[Gareth Marston]

Then it goes to show that you do not travel the route very often, there are many passengers who travel from Cardiff to Holyhead and also from many of the intermediate stations. Passengers prefer a direct route instead of changing. Currently the unit diagrams have to be so class 158's carry out the work from Brum to HHD due to the fact that the units are later used on the Cambrian. W & W used to run to Liverpool from Cardiff (Bristol TM) but the route was taken off them when ATW took over from them when First lost the North Wales Coast so I cannot see them getting anything to Liverpool.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I'm on the I pad at the moment but I have a spreadsheet on the main pc that breaks down the usage in north Wales local authority's I'm sorry N Wales to S Wales it is a very small segment of the overall market and the official figures proof it. It should not drive the market.

 

[transmanche]

The stock saved by not running through to Holyhead could perhaps allow the Birmingham - Shrewsbury - Chester service to run hourly allowing the 2 hourly service from Cardiff which at the moment runs to Holyhead to perhaps run to Liverpool via Crewe if stock/paths are availble.

I have not really ever seen any people travel directly from Cardiff to Holyhead except for AM's etc. It is certainly not too hard for them to change trains at Crwe or Chester surely?

(Ignoring for the moment the fact that very few people travel end-to-end on any service and thus any argument that a specific service shouldn't exist because no-one travels end-to-end is without foundation.)

If 'nobody' travels directly from Cardiff to Holyhead, what makes you think there's a massive demand for direct journeys between Cardiff and Liverpool?

 

[6Gman]

If the North Wales coast line is wired then perhaps it might be a good idea to electrify the branch to Blaenau festiniog if only to remove a diesel island.

I think closure would make more sense!

 

[Gareth]

If 'nobody' travels directly from Cardiff to Holyhead, what makes you think there's a massive demand for direct journeys between Cardiff and Liverpool?

Liverpool's one of the UK's largest cities whilst Holyhead, as nice as it is, isn't. I'd be surprised if lots more people in Cardiff found a direct service to Holyhead more useful than to Liverpool. Indeed, if Wales was just a part of England, I doubt anyone would consider it debatable.

 

[transmanche]

Liverpool's one of the UK's largest cities whilst Holyhead, as nice as it is, isn't. I'd be surprised if lots more people in Cardiff found a direct service to Holyhead more useful than to Liverpool. Indeed, if Wales was just a part of England, I doubt anyone would consider it debatable.

So, an assertion based on no information whatsoever.

 

[Gareth]

Well excuse me for not having accurate statistics at hand or in memory with reference to Cardiff-Holyhead/Liverpool passenger demand to just regurgitate when called upon. But it's not based on "no information whatsoever", is it? Liverpool is several times larger than Holyhead and at a relatively similar* distance from Cardiff. That's very relevant and generally uncontested information. Generally, the places where the population is biggest generate the largest number of journeys. I'd be very, very surprised if more Cardiff folk need to get to and from Holyhead than from Liverpool. I bet there's also more demand from Cardiff to Liverpool than from Cardiff to Burnley, or Cardiff to Ilkley but will stick my neck out and say that there is less demand than Cardiff to Swansea, Bristol and London. But I guess you're going to dismiss that as based on information whatsoever also.

*relatively similar != identical

 

[transmanche]

But it's not based on "no information whatsoever", is it? Liverpool is several times larger than Holyhead and at a relatively similar* distance from Cardiff. That's very relevant and generally uncontested information.

But it does demonstrate the fallacy of basing service patterns on the number of people travelling end-to-end on any service.

Just because very few people would travel from Cardiff to Holyhead end-to-end does not mean that the service as a whole is superfluous - as it's extremely useful for those making intermediate journeys without needing to change

And just because a handful more people might travel from Cardiff to Liverpool end-to-end does not mean that removing Cardiff-Holyhead services in favour of Cardiff-Liverpool will provide an overall benefit for the majority of passengers

I remind you again; any argument that a specific service shouldn't exist simply because no-one travels end-to-end is without foundation.

 

[spongsdad]

I remind you again; any argument that a specific service shouldn't exist simply because no-one travels end-to-end is without foundation.

Unless the service is non-stop, of course.

 

[Gareth Marston]

7 out of 10 rail journeys in North Wales start or end across the border
Journeys to/from South Wales account for just 1.23% of all journeys made in North Wales

Av load per direct north to south train of North to South passengers is 22 passengers, English (and some Welsh) passengers from Chester may bump this up.

The intermediate argument doesn't stack up either. Its a 70,000 per annum market less than Heart of Wales and south of Shrewsbury there has always been other direct trains to Cardiff.

 

[tbtc]

But it does demonstrate the fallacy of basing service patterns on the number of people travelling end-to-end on any service.

Just because very few people would travel from Cardiff to Holyhead end-to-end does not mean that the service as a whole is superfluous - as it's extremely useful for those making intermediate journeys without needing to change

And just because a handful more people might travel from Cardiff to Liverpool end-to-end does not mean that removing Cardiff-Holyhead services in favour of Cardiff-Liverpool will provide an overall benefit for the majority of passengers

I remind you again; any argument that a specific service shouldn't exist simply because no-one travels end-to-end is without foundation.

I don't think anyone is suggesting reducing the number of trains at any point - lets say two trains an hour from Llandudno Junction to Chester () and just under half hourly on the Marches Line (3tp2h).

But by splitting the services at Chester (so that the Llandudno/ Holyhead services run on to Manchester or Crewe/ Birmingham/ London) you significantly improve the case for electrification.

As for Holyhead, for all the talk of its international importance on threads such as these (something something EU funding something), the passenger numbers west of Bangor are pretty tiny in the grand scheme of things.