Weather related disruption - Christmas 2013 and New Year 2014

[GodAtum]

Sadly some people may not get away to where they are going this Xmas but I think people would prefer to spend Xmas day away from their families than either stranded int he middle of knowhere on a packed train disabled by blown down wires or in hospital with serious injuries caused by a train ploughing into a tree fallen on the line.

I agree that the TOcs are being safe and doing there best. it is a shame I might not be able to spend time with family this Xmas but ill try traveling tomorrow.

 

[Francis]

I can assure you that in snow conditions the rail systems in Russia run to schedule the bulk of the time. In fact their reliability around the major cities in an easterly (from Siberia) blizzard is far better than on the WCML in good weather.

This with stock that is mostly 20+ years old, because not a lot has been replaced since the end of socialism.

Correct, but the schedules are pretty slow, averaging about 50 mph and with quite long station waits. They also have broader gauge than us and very heavy locos and carriages.
The transit times between cities nearer Moscow can vary immensely. Moscow to Vladimir, which I did in September is 200km (120 miles): on the new Nizhniy Novgorod "high speed" emu it takes just 1hr 45 mins, but on a train bound for Siberia can take nearly 3 hrs. That's with no stops for either. The elektrichkas stopping every station would be well over 3 hrs.

Yaroslavl which is 250 km (160 miles) from Moscow takes about 4 hrs - some trains take 5 hrs. So average speeds are quite low.

Ukraine is very similar. Climate not so severe, but heavy, slow trains which almost always run to schedule. However, the new high speed Hyundai Kyiv-Lviv service (500 km in 5 hrs instead of 8-12 hrs) has been plagued with breakdowns. I suppose the track is not up to standard, and also if the train doesn't work you can't just hit it with a hammer to get it going again!

 

[A-driver]

I agree that the TOcs are being safe and doing there best. it is a shame I might not be able to spend time with family this Xmas but ill try traveling tomorrow.

I don't think anyone is disputing the fact that its a shame if people can't get to where they want to be at xmas-many of us rail staff are in exactly the same boat and whilst passengers get delayed going to where they are trying to get to, we can get delayed and still have to get to the yard 2 hours late having missed our last trains or planes to where we are trying to get to (I'm not after sympathy before people start, just pointing out that we to have places we want to get to for Christmas and our plans may have to be abandoned along with the fare paying public).

But I certainly don't think this is an overreaction yet-see what happens tonight but as I say, there are already power problems in places and even trees down on the lines and OHLE so it is grim out at present and if any TOC dared to run a train before daybreak tomorrow and resulted in injuries or worse from a collision that TOC and NR would be in such trouble over it. Basically in situations like this whatever the railway chooses to do it will be wrong and face criticism by the public and media (and railUK!)

 

[GodAtum]

Any trains from guildford to Clapham with 1st class? there is a slow train but no 1st.

 

[A-driver]

Any trains from guildford to Clapham with 1st class? there is a slow train but no 1st.

Seriously, you are worried about sitting in first class when most TOCs are in major disruption? To be honest, if you can get a train just get on it. Most operators will start declassifying first class anyway if things get bad.

 

[tsr]

Any trains from guildford to Clapham with 1st class? there is a slow train but no 1st.

Just get on whatever is going to your destination. Don't hang about for a special type of seat. Lines South of Guildford are severely disrupted by multiple signal failures & obstructions are causing congestion elsewhere.

 

[The exile]

Not quite sure where you get the idea that everything runs perfectly in Germany in bad weather - it's certainly not an impression shared by the Germans! Those parts of the network in areas which regularly experience heavy snowfall certainly cope better (with what are after all fairly normal conditions), but wintry weather in the North has remarkably similar results to here. Leaving S-Bahn services to one side, very few German lines are used as intensively by passenger services as many in this country, so single incidents tend to have less widespread repercussions. When things do go wrong, customer care is comparable (sometimes excellent, sometimes atrocious).

 

[Sheepy1209]

The big difference for me between now and 'the good old days' is the accuracy of forecasting in the 24-48 hour horizon - for wind speeds in particular. Rainfall is more difficult if it's localised showers, but pretty good when it comes to frontal systems and major depressions.

The storm of 1987 wouldn't have come as a surprise if it happened now; and the accuracy of prediction means the risk of getting egg on face if it turns out to be wrong is much reduced. I think what we're seeing is professional planning and communication, rather than the old 'hope for the best' approach.

As a reminder of what can happen if it goes wrong - remember the Glanrhyd bridge failure, also in 1987. Four people drowned on an early morning train. I'm not saying it wouldn't happen now, but by suspending early morning services and using modern communications to warn both crews and passengers the likelihood is much lower (even down to the fact a farmer saw the collapsed bridge but couldn't get to a phone to warn anyone).

I think the railway has done an excellent job in the recent storm events, and apart from some in the media and the vocal ones on Twitter, I think public perceptions are pretty positive.

Of course the one thing we can't forecast well is snow; our climate hovers around freezing point for much of winter, and a difference of one or two degrees can make all the difference between rain, wet snow and powder snow. We live in one of the most difficult climates in the world when it comes to snow and ice conditions - much more so than those places where it's predictably cold, and well below freezing for most of the winter.

 

[Goatboy]

Good to see FGW trying to maintain service this afternoon despite various ad hoc line closures and not planning to just give up and see what happens before deciding if they'll run any trains. We are quick to whinge but we must also give credit where its due.

Also EMT:

We are planning to run our as-advertised Christmas timetable for tomorrow 24/12.

 

[jon0844]

That's why snow isn't so bad elsewhere. It falls and stays as snow, not hovering around 0 so thawing, freezing, thawing, flooding, snowing, freezing etc.

I am sure we'd be better able to cope if it actually got colder. Our problem is it isn't cold enough.

And wind is a totally different story.

 

[Trog]

Or would you prefer we just shoved thousands onto 100mph trains and, providing the OHLE is still even able to give power, let these trains plough straight into obstructions across the lines injuring and perhaps even killing hundreds the day before Xmas?!
I mean come on, too many people on here are just being stupid now.

Were your ears burning when you wrote that?



Sounds to me as if it is past time the railway did a bit more tree cutting, etc.
We need to get a bit of preparation in first, and reduce the risks while the sun shines. Because reliability is important, the Government pendulum will swing away from being willing to invest in rail, and we will then need all the friends we can get. Remember some lines only survived Beeching because the locals relied upon them to keep running when the roads were blocked.

If we carry on the way we are with ever more expensive and restrictive safety precautions, shying away from any risk however small and unlikely by stopping the affected activity dead. Rather than mitigating the risk and carrying on as best we can. We will make the railway so expensive that the government will eventually say enough is enough, and at the very least withdraw investment, and let the railway fade away like BR before the HST.

On the passenger safety side the passengers would almost certainly have been a lot safer travelling by train than they will be using the alternative cars and taxis. After all every time there is a high wind there are stories of someone being crushed in their car by a falling tree.

 

[A-driver]

Were your ears burning when you wrote that?



Sounds to me as if it is past time the railway did a bit more tree cutting, etc.
We need to get a bit of preparation in first, and reduce the risks while the sun shines. Because reliability is important, the Government pendulum will swing away from being willing to invest in rail, and we will then need all the friends we can get. Remember some lines only survived Beeching because the locals relied upon them to keep running when the roads were blocked.

If we carry on the way we are with ever more expensive and restrictive safety precautions, shying away from any risk however small and unlikely by stopping the affected activity dead. Rather than mitigating the risk and carrying on as best we can. We will make the railway so expensive that the government will eventually say enough is enough, and at the very least withdraw investment, and let the railway fade away like BR before the HST.

On the passenger safety side the passengers would almost certainly have been a lot safer travelling by train than they will be using the alternative cars and taxis. After all every time there is a high wind there are stories of someone being crushed in their car by a falling tree.

You see you say all that and it just shows very clearly how little you understand about railway operations and the real dangers and challenges this weather brings. At least on the roads cars can drive around branches and fallen trees. If 1 of 2 lines is blocked on the railway then we are looking at huge delays working past the obstruction. Removing a tree from the ohle is a big and complex job. Get it wrong and you have to replace the wires which is an even bigger job.

And all that rubbish about BR prior to the hst etc is rather over the top. We arnt talking normal regular weather tonight, we are talking severe weather which will not only affect the railway but also roads, shipping and possibly flights.

As for preparation, network rail have being trying to cut back on line side trees for a few years now but are getting too many objections from residents etc which is stopping them carry out the work. Plus a lot of the line side trees are not on railway land but in peoples back gardens and council owned land. Network rail can not cut those ones down and if they fall from private land they can still damage the infrastructure or obstruct trains.

 

[Goatboy]

You see you say all that and it just shows very clearly how little you understand about railway operations and the real dangers and challenges this weather brings.

This would be a perfectly valid point had the current 'no trains' approach adopted by some TOC's been something that had always been done. It's not - its new this year. Something has changed in the past year. Presumably we could argue until the end of the universe exactly what it is thats changed because those making the decisions don't post here and can't tell us.

It's a general societal thing I think - everything is suddenly a big deal in the information age...

 

[Bald Rick]

Well so far this pm in Kent we have had 5 notable trees on the line, 2 of which have been hit by trains, one pretty hard. Plus part of a station canopy, a trampoline (!), and the Kingsferry Bridge refusing to close.

It would seem the precautions were right. Otherwise there would be a lot more stranded passengers out there.

 

[Trog]

You see you say all that and it just shows very clearly how little you understand about railway operations and the real dangers and challenges this weather brings. At least on the roads cars can drive around branches and fallen trees. If 1 of 2 lines is blocked on the railway then we are looking at huge delays working past the obstruction. Removing a tree from the ohle is a big and complex job. Get it wrong and you have to replace the wires which is an even bigger job.

And all that rubbish about BR prior to the hst etc is rather over the top. We arnt talking normal regular weather tonight, we are talking severe weather which will not only affect the railway but also roads, shipping and possibly flights.

Over thirty years experience in several grades on the P-Way.

I am one of those people dressed in orange you watch through your windscreen from your air-conditioned cab. Cutting down trees, changing rails, heat patrolling in summer, installing drains, relaying track with the rain pi**ing down. I know about winter and summer preparedness because I have been there done it, and got the high visibility tee shirt.

 

[jon0844]

Something has certainly changed - the weather has become pretty nasty over the last 5-10 years. Wind and heavy rain/flooding is hard to protect against and we seem to have had rather a lot of both even just in the last 12 months.

I remember 1987. I am sure there were other really bad storms in history too, but that doesn't change the fact we have had a bad year and it's not over yet.

 

[oversteer]

LM down to one train an hour in and out of Euston! Ouch.

 

[MadCommuter]

I think the reliability of weather forecasting has a lot to do with how the railways react to warnings in advance. This is the 3rd instance recently where the railways have been proactive to weather warnings, and the forecast has been spot on.

 

[High Dyke]

No disruption on the Leicester - Nottingham - Lincoln line... can't see what all the fuss is about... :roll:

 

[merlodlliw]

Is this the shortest run VT will do today, 2022 Chester to Wrexham all 16 minutes of it.(If it runs)
The 1810 Euston Holyhead/Wrexham cancelled.

Bad flooding on the Marches has expected

 

[A-driver]

Over thirty years experience in several grades on the P-Way.

I am one of those people dressed in orange you watch through your windscreen from your air-conditioned cab. Cutting down trees, changing rails, heat patrolling in summer, installing drains, relaying track with the rain pi**ing down. I know about winter and summer preparedness because I have been there done it, and got the high visibility tee shirt.

In that case how can you suggest the emergency timetables are over the top? A tree came down earlier on the wires at knebworth. The emergency timetable meant delays were pretty minor with everything, including stoppers, running round the loop. If the normal TT was in place it would certainly have caused chaos and led to lots of delays and cancelations along with choruses of "you have known about this storm since the weekend so why attempt a normal service..."

 

[A-driver]

This would be a perfectly valid point had the current 'no trains' approach adopted by some TOC's been something that had always been done. It's not - its new this year. Something has changed in the past year. Presumably we could argue until the end of the universe exactly what it is thats changed because those making the decisions don't post here and can't tell us.

It's a general societal thing I think - everything is suddenly a big deal in the information age...

What "no trains" policy? Everyone has been running where possible today? There is talk of not running until proving trains have run tomorrow but that is fairly common sense approach. You can't run an 80mph train round a blind corner at 3am in pitch black whilst knowing high winds have been blowing trees down all night can you...

 

[Moonshot]

One thing that has been totally overlooked on here is the fact that 5 of the top 10 years for rainfall in the 110 years since records began have actually occured in the last 10 years.

This is presenting a significant challenge to Network Rail in maintaining such things as embankments and drainage...

 

[Darandio]

Or would you prefer we just shoved thousands onto 100mph trains and, providing the OHLE is still even able to give power, let these trains plough straight into obstructions across the lines injuring and perhaps even killing hundreds the day before Xmas?!

Weird, I said something pretty identical in this thread a couple of days ago and got ripped to bits for it.

'an appeal to emotion fallacy' apparently. :roll:

 

[londonmidland]

Looks like our next lookout is for Thursday night and Friday as another spell of stormy weather is expected to affect many areas.

 

[ushawk]

Lines dropping like flies down South with Horsham-Arundel (Flooding), Redhill-Tonbridge (Signalling Failure) and Eastbourne-Hastings (Train hitting a large tree) all now suspended.

Southern network is close to completely being suspended South of London ive heard - though the PR could be catastrophic with people left stranded.

EDIT - Brighton Mainline now blocked partially at Earlswood due to flooding, seems Redhill is effectively being cut off.

 

[edwin_m]

I think the reliability of weather forecasting has a lot to do with how the railways react to warnings in advance. This is the 3rd instance recently where the railways have been proactive to weather warnings, and the forecast has been spot on.

Absolutely. On the day of the "wrong kind of snow" storm (1990?) I was trying to get home from Derby to Nottingham, eventually on a 47 and four Mk2s that someone had found in the back of Etches Park. Nobody who arrived at the office in the morning knew that was going to happen. If it happened today it would be forecast at least a day ahead* and many would be able to organise working from home.

*probably, although we don't know how accurate it would be in respect of the type of snow as I don't think it's happened since.

 

[6Z09]

The railway now is a very different place to what it was.
I suggest you stop living in history and realise that the world has moved on (a long way)

Living in history! lol
It was not that long ago I left the Industry.
This cancelation policy has only recently emerged as has been stated by other posts on here.

 

[GodAtum]

anyway ive gone back to the office and managed to find a quiet spot to sleep, hopefully no security guards spot me

 

[DJL]

Can I just take a moment to thank all the railway staff who will be out on there on the tracks doing there best to get things moving again despite treacherous conditions.