Electrification & Rolling Stock Cascade Impact Review

[Manchester77]

Following recent information about the Welsh Valleys it now appears there are two possible outcomes; the first is the existing stock is refurbished and electrification healed off until the existing stock is life expired. The second would be what we predicted would happen; the valleys are electrified as origanally published and class 315s displaced by Crossrail are sent to operate. However the possibility of new stock is there and there is a likelihood that the WG could specify new trains. Whatever EMUs does end up operating it, the existing DMUs have a few different places to go. The pacers could either be refurbished and sent onto other routes which could replace 153s (which could then be reformed to 155s). The 150s could be retained to strengthen services or sent onto another TOC (would Northern need any further DMUs following electrification?) or could they even be scrapped?

 

[tbtc]

Following recent information about the Welsh Valleys it now appears there are two possible outcomes; the first is the existing stock is refurbished and electrification healed off until the existing stock is life expired. The second would be what we predicted would happen; the valleys are electrified as origanally published and class 315s displaced by Crossrail are sent to operate

I can imagine the negative headlines now about the 315s being sat idle between 2018 (Crossrail opens) and some time in the early 2020s (Valley Lines fully electrified).

Dunno if that's better than having electrified lines without sufficient EMUs to operate all services (one of the complaints made about the "Lancashire Triangle").

(of course, the Welsh delays may mean that the 315s don't end up running Valley services, but I can't see the WG finding the money for brand new units)

 

[northwichcat]

The article also stated that FGW have told the DfT that the 319s are better capacity but are a step backwards traveling environment and are out of alignment with total route modernisation of the route with new long distance trains arriving soon.

The 319s aren't that dis-similar in age to the 165s. The difference is the 165s are a more modern external design.

If the 319s finish up on Manchester Airport to Blackpool, which is possible given there are currently no plans to order new EMUs for it, then it'll be a lot more out of alignment with total route modernisation.

 

[Manchester77]

I can imagine the negative headlines now about the 315s being sat idle between 2018 (Crossrail opens) and some time in the early 2020s (Valley Lines fully electrified).
Dunno if that's better than having electrified lines without sufficient EMUs to operate all services (one of the complaints made about the "Lancashire Triangle").
(of course, the Welsh delays may mean that the 315s don't end up running Valley services, but I can't see the WG finding the money for brand new units)

Quite; it is an awkward situation. Perhaps the 323s could be used with northern using 319s to replace them and London Midland perhaps converting 450s to 350s to replace them Then SWT could use their current proposed EMU order to cover their loss?

Yes as it is TPE won't have enough electric stock for all Anglo-Scottish services to be fully EMU operated. Its a pity that London need additional EMUs so desperately for additional capacity because if they didn't TPE could take on even less than 5 of their 350/3s just until TPE get their own EMUs not as an add on for LM. Related to the issue is the Todmerdon Curve (Sorry about Spelling!) which probably won't have any DMUs to operate it when it opens; bit of a state at the minute!!

 

[northwichcat]

I can imagine the negative headlines now about the 315s being sat idle between 2018 (Crossrail opens) and some time in the early 2020s (Valley Lines fully electrified).

Dunno if that's better than having electrified lines without sufficient EMUs to operate all services (one of the complaints made about the "Lancashire Triangle").

(of course, the Welsh delays may mean that the 315s don't end up running Valley services, but I can't see the WG finding the money for brand new units)

In the case of the 'Lancashire Triangle', TPE and Thames Valley the extra capacity provided by EMUs is overdue given it was originally expected to be provided by a new DMU order to be delivered by December 2012 so the extra capacity was already overdue compared to the original plan.

With regards to Chat Moss the busiest Victoria-Liverpool services are 4 car and the Airport-Liverpool services need extra luggage space more than extra seats. Therefore, the greatest beneficiary of EMUs to Chat Moss will be the likes of Burnley which will get a new service in December 14 using the cascaded diesels, 10 months after the Todmorden curve will be available for use. At the moment Burnley won't be bothered about where the trains will come from as long as they get some.

Out of interest someone dug out an official document a while back which showed that the proposed DMU order for Northern/FGW/TPE would mainly be 4 car. Do we know which routes in the North (other than TPE services) would have got 4 car had the electrification alternative not gone ahead? There must have been some thought that went in to it given it specified a small number of 2 and 3 car units and a large number of 4 car units.
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because if they didn't TPE could take on even less than 5 of their 350/3s just until TPE get their own EMUs not as an add on for LM.

There was a suggestion that LM would submit an order of 17 x 4 car 350s with 10 for TPE but this could changed to 20 with 10 for TPE. I wonder whether the suggested 17 would have broken procurement rules - given the TPE portion would have been larger than the LM portion and the reason for Siemens getting awarded the tender was because they offered compatibility with existing LM EMUs, which other manufacturers couldn't offer with an off-the-shelf model.

 

[Old Hill Bank]

From a LM meeting I attended a couple of weeks ago, the arrival of the ten 350/3s will result in an minor internal cascade within LM as they need to move all of thier 323s on to the x-city route to cover for the additional diagrams resulting from the Redditch branch enhancement. Seven additional 350s for West Coast South capacity and the remainig three to displace 323s on non x-city diagrams.

 

[WatcherZero]

I imagine it was more to do with funding, LM thought they could only afford 7 but in the end they went for 10 using the extra for network wide service resilience and took up the full 20 options available. Its unlikely they will be getting any new stock for a while now so better to be safe than sorry.

The interesting recent developments in procurement seem to be suggestions that Merseyrail would go for tube derived stock to maximise capacity without increasing platform length, not sure what effect that would have on the previous suggestion of having a dual voltage capable fleet for future extensions/new services, whether a pantograph and transformers could be squeezed into a metro unit., particularly if they keep the short formations for flexibility.

The other surprising thing is the number of pundits recently calling for the Valley Lines to go for an LRV conversion rather than using cascaded mainline stock, arguing that lower operating costs would allow a larger fleet and open the possibility of new Cardiff lines.

 

[YorkshireBear]

From a LM meeting I attended a couple of weeks ago, the arrival of the ten 350/3s will result in an minor internal cascade within LM as they need to move all of thier 323s on to the x-city route to cover for the additional diagrams resulting from the Redditch branch enhancement. Seven additional 350s for West Coast South capacity and the remainig three to displace 323s on non x-city diagrams.

I am not completely familiar with the local services out of New Street, what local services are EMU operated apart from X City (Which is Redditch to Lichfield???? ) .
Ta

 

[Old Hill Bank]

I am not completely familiar with the local services out of New Street, what local services are EMU operated apart from X City (Which is Redditch to Lichfield???? ) .
Ta

LM currently use 323s on Wolverhampton-New Street-Walsall diagrams.

What will happen when Bromsgrove then Rugeley get wired is still unclear.

 

[sprinterguy]

I am not completely familiar with the local services out of New Street, what local services are EMU operated apart from X City (Which is Redditch to Lichfield???? ) .
Ta

323s are currently also used on the half-hourly Wolverhampton to Walsall service, and the New Street to International stoppers.

 

[northwichcat]

What will happen when Bromsgrove then Rugeley get wired is still unclear.

There are options available.

* Manchester Airport to Scotland services may get Liverpool portions added to some services in CP5 which will need more EMUs, which could allow either more 350s to be ordered or a different type of EMU to be ordered allowing the 350/4s to go to LM.

* 125mph commuter stock could be ordered for Northampton to London which would free up 350/1s for other services.

 

[YorkshireBear]

There are options available.

* Manchester Airport to Scotland services may get Liverpool portions added to some services in CP5 which will need more EMUs, which could allow either more 350s to be ordered or a different type of EMU to be ordered allowing the 350/4s to go to LM.

* 125mph commuter stock could be ordered for Northampton to London which would free up 350/1s for other services.

To add to that, would 319s replacing 323s to LM?

 

[Class377/5]

The 319s aren't that dis-similar in age to the 165s. The difference is the 165s are a more modern external design.

If the 319s finish up on Manchester Airport to Blackpool, which is possible given there are currently no plans to order new EMUs for it, then it'll be a lot more out of alignment with total route modernisation.

Internally they are a world apart.

Not sure what you mean by the second part tho.

I imagine it was more to do with funding, LM thought they could only afford 7 but in the end they went for 10 using the extra for network wide service resilience and took up the full 20 options available. Its unlikely they will be getting any new stock for a while now so better to be safe than sorry.

The interesting recent developments in procurement seem to be suggestions that Merseyrail would go for tube derived stock to maximise capacity without increasing platform length, not sure what effect that would have on the previous suggestion of having a dual voltage capable fleet for future extensions/new services, whether a pantograph and transformers could be squeezed into a metro unit., particularly if they keep the short formations for flexibility.

The other surprising thing is the number of pundits recently calling for the Valley Lines to go for an LRV conversion rather than using cascaded mainline stock, arguing that lower operating costs would allow a larger fleet and open the possibility of new Cardiff lines.

Interesting you say that as work on further rolling stock for the LM area has been looked into prior to the latest 350 order.

Sounds like a possible S stock type train for Merseyrail although the 09 stock was an variant of the Electrostar in part.

The tram-train idea is in part because there is proposals to extend the Valley Metro lines into Cardiff city center.

 

[Old Hill Bank]

To add to that, would 319s replacing 323s to LM?

Beyond the internal cascade I mentioned the rest is speculation.

My personal view is that a new single fleet for TPE electric jobs is the way forward and the 350/4s come down to LM land to cover the Rugeley stuff.
The issue is with X-City which will become Lichfield-Redditch/Bromsgrove in a couple of years. The route is set up for 6 x 23m stock so with the 350s being 20m and with different couplings it makes no sense to use them intermingled on the route, so some 323s from Northern with the North West receiving suitable alternatives.

 

[northwichcat]

Internally they are a world apart.

Would they still be a world apart after a full refurbishment like the 1970s EMUs belonging to Merseyrail and Southern, which look newer than the 1980s Sprinter stock?

Not sure what you mean by the second part tho.

Manchester Airport to Blackpool only got new 185s because the 175s were to be transferred to the Wales and Borders franchise and there was no other stock available to run it. It wasn't even part of the TPE franchise until DfT had a rethink.

So what is the probability of Manchester Airport to Blackpool getting different electric rolling stock to Liverpool to Blackpool or Manchester Airport to Liverpool - which are set to get 319s which are almost 20 years older than the 185s? Blackpool or Manchester Airport electrification should happen too early to expect to get stock from an EMU order that includes North TPE.
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To add to that, would 319s replacing 323s to LM?

At the rate Thameslink is going I'd be doubtful of enough 319s being released in time to allow that to happen.
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The route is set up for 6 x 23m stock so with the 350s being 20m and with different couplings it makes no sense to use them intermingled on the route, so some 323s from Northern with the North West receiving suitable alternatives.

That's an issue in the North as well. A lot of platforms on local/regional routes are set up for 4 or 6 carriage lengths so having only 4 car units doesn't allow for any doubling up. Porterbrook have produced plans showing how (some of) the 319s could be turned in to 3 car units with corridor connectors which would solve that problem. However, they haven't unveiled plans for where spare centre cars from 319s could go.

 

[Class377/5]

Would they still be a world apart after a full refurbishment like the 1970s EMUs belonging to Merseyrail and Southern, which look newer than the 1980s Sprinter stock?

Ah that's a good point I'd overlooked.

Manchester Airport to Blackpool only got new 185s because the 175s were to be transferred to the Wales and Borders franchise and there was no other stock available to run it. It wasn't even part of the TPE franchise until DfT had a rethink.

So what is the probability of Manchester Airport to Blackpool getting different electric rolling stock to Liverpool to Blackpool or Manchester Airport to Liverpool - which are set to get 319s which are almost 20 years older than the 185s? Blackpool or Manchester Airport electrification should happen too early to expect to get stock from an EMU order that includes North TPE.

It does seem the whole 319 fleet is to head northwards to the NW taking over all the electric routes. Does Bolton and Wigan get peak six car 23m DMU services into Manchester?

At the rate Thameslink is going I'd be doubtful of enough 319s being released in time to allow that to happen.

Should be released at the following rates

May 2014 - 6 units
Dec 2014 - 6 units (not confirmed officially)
Dec 2015 - 29 units

That leaves around 46-51 units left. With around 15x 700/1 units (45 four cars) and 18x 700/0 units (36 four cars) in service by Dec 2016 means that unless something seriously goes wrong then all 319s will be spare by the Dec 2016 deadline.

 

[northwichcat]

It does seem the whole 319 fleet is to head northwards to the NW taking over all the electric routes. Does Bolton and Wigan get peak six car 23m DMU services into Manchester?

In the case of Bolton yes - there are some 6 car TPE workings e.g. 16:00, 17:00 and 18:00 northbound departures from Manchester Airport. There are also some 4 car DMU workings on Hazel Grove to Preston services which will need more capacity if passenger numbers grow.

 

[Class377/5]

In the case of Bolton yes - there are some 6 car TPE workings e.g. 16:00, 17:00 and 18:00 northbound departures from Manchester Airport. There are also some 4 car DMU workings on Hazel Grove to Preston services which will need more capacity if passenger numbers grow.

How many of the stations on the route can take 160m EMUs?

Non stop 8 car electrics from Wigan to Victoria (say attaching at Preston) would have no issues right?

 

[northwichcat]

How many of the stations on the route can take 160m EMUs?

Non stop 8 car electrics from Wigan to Victoria (say attaching at Preston) would have no issues right?

But if you miss out most stations then a lot of passengers will have to catch the following shorter stopping service.
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Should be released at the following rates

May 2014 - 6 units
Dec 2014 - 6 units (not confirmed officially)
Dec 2015 - 29 units

If those timings are correct and FGW don't take on 319s then that should allow all of those 41 x 319s to have a full refurbishment before the second phase of North West electrification is ready which is expected to be the December 16 timetable changed.

 

[Manchester77]

It appears FGW won't be having the 319s, wasn't there a press release new stock would be ordered some time soon? If so the path is set for the NW to take on all the 319s.

Regarding the Welsh Valleys, if the NW doesn't take on all 319s, 30 319s could go to the valleys instead of the 315s?

 

[Class377/5]

But if you miss out most stations then a lot of passengers will have to catch the following shorter stopping service.

Sorry I was suggesting running fast from Wigan avoiding Bolton and having separate 8 cars from Bolton.

If those timings are correct and FGW don't take on 319s then that should allow all of those 41 x 319s to have a full refurbishment before the second phase of North West electrification is ready which is expected to be the December 16 timetable changed.

Those timings for the 700 are based on the contract Siemens signed for the Thameslink ignoring the fact that the first unit is running six months early plus ignoring any deliveries after the end of October despite the units being able to come in service as soon as they arrive in the UK.

Of course I haven't accounted for the possible three months that TSGN can hold on to stock as stated in the ITT as I don't think its really relevant overall.

 

[northwichcat]

It appears FGW won't be having the 319s, wasn't there a press release new stock would be ordered some time soon? If so the path is set for the NW to take on all the 319s.

I think you mean North opposed to NW. Why would the NW need all 86 trains? If you include local services in Yorkshire then it'll be a different matter.

 

[Class377/5]

I think you mean North opposed to NW. Why would the NW need all 86 trains? If you include local services in Yorkshire then it'll be a different matter.

What about post Northern Hub?

 

[northwichcat]

What about post Northern Hub?

Well maybe if you're assuming the proposed 3 car option will go ahead and a lot of 319s will run around in double.

 

[Class377/5]

Well maybe if you're assuming the proposed 3 car option will go ahead and a lot of 319s will run around in double.

I'm assuming 4/8 combos with additional services using 319s where possible.

 

[northwichcat]

I'm assuming 4/8 combos with additional services using 319s where possible.

Network Rail's planned CP6 platform lengthening doesn't allow for any Chat Moss* or Bolton corridor platforms to go to 8 car in CP6. It actually focuses on the diesel lines which won't be electrified which have platforms which are shorter than 144m (on lines with regional services) or 96m (on lines without regionals) - I remember the Buxton line, the Hope Valley line, the Mid-Cheshire line and the Warrington Central line all coming up.

* Except stations served by Arriva Trains Wales to a proposed 144m length.

 

[Old Hill Bank]

I think you mean North opposed to NW. Why would the NW need all 86 trains? If you include local services in Yorkshire then it'll be a different matter.

What if all of Northerns 323s moved to LM, I think it was proposed in the first HLOS. Then the North West would need a lot of 319s, just a thought.

 

[swt_passenger]

It appears FGW won't be having the 319s, wasn't there a press release new stock would be ordered some time soon?

There is no explicit statement in one press release. AFAICS what happened is that in the (now lapsed) GWML ITT DfT wrote that it might make more sense to use new and faster rolling stock to maximise the benefits from electrification and various route improvements, such as Reading. A key statement being:

"It should be noted that Network Rail believes that vehicles capable of 110mph running are necessary to maximise the benefits of the overall infrastructure investments on the route. Bidders should come to their own assessments of this view."

Subsequently DfT announced that a load of additional EMUs would be ordered by SN for use 'elsewhere' following a short time on Thameslink. These were confirmed ordered in July. (Now known to be the the 387s).

It seems to many of us to be quite reasonable to join those two issues together, but to the best of my knowledge it has never been stated as a fact by anyone in authority, such as the DfT...

 

[northwichcat]

What if all of Northerns 323s moved to LM, I think it was proposed in the first HLOS.

That was pre-electrification announcements and assumed Northern would get a brand new fleet of EMUs as replacement and extra capacity, with LM getting 17 extra 323s as extra capacity.

 

[Old Hill Bank]

That was pre-electrification announcements and assumed Northern would get a brand new fleet of EMUs as replacement and extra capacity, with LM getting 17 extra 323s as extra capacity.

Yeh we all need to be very careful of "assumptions". I think the idea was that X-City could then go up to near full six car operation, not my route but I can see the argument.