Windsor Branch
1 set (for shuttle)
Henley Branch
1 set (for shuttle)
2 sets (for once per peak journey to/from Paddington)
Marlow Branch
1 set (for shuttle)
2 sets (for once per peak journey to/from Paddington)
TOTAL: 56 sets (NOT INCLUDING SPARES) (some branch services might need to be shorter than 4-cars to fit in the platforms and the through services to Paddington will need to be lengthened at Twyford/Maidenhead [or maybe some stock could be saved by linking these services together at Maidenhead]),
Assuming they actually are displaced (we have had a couple of false alarms on this already), I fancy a fleet of say half a dozen 314s for the Thames branches, possibly allowing two for Marlow with one set operating Maidenhead-Bourne End and the other Bourne End-Marlow, just doubling the frequency albeit with a change of train for Marlow passengers. I believe this mode of operation has previously been used on the branch.
I suspect that through services from both Bourne End and Henley to Padd will not survive Crossrail opening. Indeed, given their restricted length I don't think that is neccesarily a bad thing, given paths are at a premium.
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I am not sure if there is going to be a through service between Bassingstoke and Heathrow Airport (This is the 1st time I have heard of such a service.) as well as the Newbury - Reading - London service, as far as I was aware there would be a 30 minutely Newbury - Reading shuttle with a Westbury/Bedwyn - London semi-fast service together with the London - Plymouth/Penzance services
I believe I saw mutterings of a Basingstoke-Reading-Heathrow-Padd express when the Heathrow western link was announced, the idea largely being that Basingstoke starters will be largely empty at Reading, thus acting as crowd busters for Reading to Padd. I'm not sure what the time penalty of going via Heathrow will be, however. I would imagine a good 10 minutes at least.
That said, 4 trains per hour of Reading-Heathrow-Padd fasts (most probably starting further west, say 2tph Basingstoke, 2tph Newbury/Bedwyn/Westbury), would provide a decent western service to Heathrow and dispense with HEx taking up paths into Padd, as well as allowing 332s to be cascaded up to West Yorkshire.
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Event; Stalybridge to Leeds & Neville Hill to Colton Junction & Selby routes electrified.
Effect on TPX; Core Liverpool & Manchester to York & Newcastle services able to operated by EMUs with Middlesbrough (7 diagrams) and Hull (5 diagrams) remaining class 185 operated. Service/franchise changes expected with Scarborough services either moving to Northern with Blackpool-York services extended to Scarborough or Northerns Blackpool-York absorbed into TPX. Under both options, TPX EMUs work an extra Manchester Airport-York, vice existing Scarborough. TPX also required to retain a further 12 class 185 diagrams; Manchester to Cleethorpes (7) and Barrow (3), giving a total of 22 diagrams to cover with around 30 units to allow for 6-car sets at peak times. Around 21x class 185s and 9 class 170s displaced.
Effect on Northern; Stopping services between Stalybridge to Leeds and York/Selby able to be operated by EMUs. Major restructuring of timetable, but 6 DMU diagrams able to replaced by EMUs. Possible cascade of around 21 class 185s & 9 class 170s to displace & cascade similar number of class 156s/158s on Scarborough/York-Blackpool, S&C, Copy Pit & Leeds-Nottingham/Sheffield fasts.
I suspect Middlesbrough will be cut back to an hourly shuttle from York, requiring a couple of DMUs. That said, I think that there is a good case for electrification to Middlesbrough, together with Darlington-Saltburn in CP6, in which case Middlesbrough could easily rejoin the TPE network, by simply re-extending the curtailed Airport-York service.
Operationally, I think Scarborough would be best served by a shuttle from York, using the nicely segregated bay there, thus eliminating conflicting moves and freeing up paths in the main ECML platforms. This would use 2 DMUs, though possibly not 185s, a 155 or similar would do the trick nicely.
I would probably curtail the Blackpool-Yorks at Leeds on electrification, gaining a couple of 158s for strenthening elsewhere. The York-Leeds stoppers (and Selby-Leeds, if it doesn't become part of the Hull/Selby-Manchester semi-fast), could easily run through to Doncaster or Huddersfield with an EMU, reducing the number of trains terminating at Leeds City from the west.
I reckon that when the Ordsall curve opens, all Manchester Airport services will come from platform 13 at Piccadilly (perhaps Ludo will gain, saving the time consuming tipping out of a unit at Picc), with Cleethorpes-Airport services being curtailed at Piccadilly. Thus Cleethorpes will only require 6 units.
Barrow could easily become a 156 shuttle from Lancaster, with the through electric paths to the Airport coming off the Windermere branch.
Thus I reckon the current TPE will have a daily requirement for 13-15 185s (5 Hull - strengthening probably not possible due to short platforms at places like Marsden, 6-8 Cleethorpes, with maybe a little strengthening in the Hope Valley, 2 Middlesbrough). Given the specially constructed Siemens depots, with presumably a maintenance contract, I can see them remaining in the area, potentially on Calder Valley and/or Copy pit services.
