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High Speed Two (HS2) discussion

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Also, the non-stop nature of the present service on the southern section reduces capacity and so will probably not be maintained so that those on that section of the line will get a better service.

The fast lines with all those non stopping trains currently has 12tph. The slow lines with the stopper trains has 5tph. Say again what reduces capacity...

The NR capacity study has 9tph on the fasts, the HS2 ltd suggestion is 7.75tph...
 
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HSTEd

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The fast lines with all those non stopping trains currently has 12tph. The slow lines with the stopper trains has 5tph. Say again what reduces capacity...

The NR capacity study has 9tph on the fasts, the HS2 ltd suggestion is 7.75tph...

We aren't going to load the fast lines as heavily as we do now, simply because one of the purposes of HS2 is to relax the pressure on the ancient infrastructure that makes up the WCML.
 

JamesRowden

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The fast lines with all those non stopping trains currently has 12tph. The slow lines with the stopper trains has 5tph. Say again what reduces capacity...

The NR capacity study has 9tph on the fasts, the HS2 ltd suggestion is 7.75tph...

Crossrail will have 24tph (might be more, haven't the time to look it up).
 

edwin_m

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The current Modern Railways mentions a Virgin proposal to run at 135mph on a straight section through Lockerbie. It also has someone at TPE saying that the 350 at 110mph can keep remarkably close to the timings of the Voyager just in front of it, timed for 125mph EPS.
 

RichmondCommu

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Liverpool will have 2 classic-compatible trains to London an hour - one via Birmingham International, Stafford and Runcorn, the other Crewe and Runcorn.
Crewe would be served by a 1tph Crewe-Warrington-Wigan-Preston service and the 1tph aforementioned Liverpool service.

Though, of course, it can change to better suit the needs of passengers, if need be.

Hopefully the DfT might be persuaded to run a few classic-compatible direct services to Derby and Nottingham so that drivers can avoid the notorious A52 in the peak.
 

HSTEd

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Hopefully the DfT might be persuaded to run a few classic-compatible direct services to Derby and Nottingham so that drivers can avoid the notorious A52 in the peak.

Well the Nottingham Express Tram system will get within a few hundred metres of Toton as it is, so an extension is most certainly not out of the question.

I am sure something could be worked out for derby, even if it is just a shuttle unit on the conventional lines, or even a tram-train extension of NET all the way to Derby.

No need to waste paths on Classic Compatibles.
 

edwin_m

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Well the Nottingham Express Tram system will get within a few hundred metres of Toton as it is, so an extension is most certainly not out of the question.

I am sure something could be worked out for derby, even if it is just a shuttle unit on the conventional lines, or even a tram-train extension of NET all the way to Derby.

No need to waste paths on Classic Compatibles.

There is also no connection proposed between HS2 and the classic network that would be any use for Derby or Nottingham - the nearest one is in Crewe! A connection could be put in south of Toton but any HS2 trains for these destinations would have to reverse there.
 

Kettledrum

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There is also no connection proposed between HS2 and the classic network that would be any use for Derby or Nottingham - the nearest one is in Crewe! A connection could be put in south of Toton but any HS2 trains for these destinations would have to reverse there.

Unless there is a change of policy. There are plenty of areas where HS2 would run close enough to conventional lines to put a connection in. I wonder if there is scope for a connection near East Midlands Parkway.
 

Bonemaster

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one of the purposes of HS2 is to relax the pressure on the ancient infrastructure that makes up the WCML.

That got totally modernised just a few years ago. It still has pinchpoints and constraints, some money can be thrown at to resolve, others not so easily, let us not forget the WCRM had in it plans to have 140mph running and cab signalling to enhance capacity, that were taken out following a massive overspend.

I am sure something could be worked out for derby, even if it is just a shuttle unit on the conventional lines, or even a tram-train extension of NET all the way to Derby.

I'm not convinced you have read much of the official HS2 documentation that highlights the plan..... There would be 16 London St Pancras to Derby Trains per day, as well as 18 Nottingham - Matlock services per day to link Derby to East Midlands HS2 station.

so an extension is most certainly not out of the question.

Not out of the question but the likelihood is that any such large scheme will be scaled back due to overspends, rather than be able to find additional monies for new bells and whistles to add on. I really worry for the East Midlands, and Sheffield economically following HS2, given the not urban nature of the stations, and that economic growth in the area would be served best by having businesses close to HS2 stations, how much of the benefit is going to be lost by the necessity to change for other services into the city centres, and how many people are going to flow outwards by having to drive to the HS2 hub station.
 

RichmondCommu

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There is also no connection proposed between HS2 and the classic network that would be any use for Derby or Nottingham - the nearest one is in Crewe! A connection could be put in south of Toton but any HS2 trains for these destinations would have to reverse there.

So what's the issue with trains reversing? TGV's reverse at Narbonne so why not at Toton?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
I am sure something could be worked out for derby, even if it is just a shuttle unit on the conventional lines, or even a tram-train extension of NET all the way to Derby.

No need to waste paths on Classic Compatibles.

"I am sure" doesn't instill much confidence! If people have to take a local train out to Toton from Derby station (having already driven into Derby) I'm afraid a lot of people simply won't bother.

On the contrary in the peak there is a clear need for compatible services into
Derby and Nottingham. If you're not convinced try the A52 in the morning rush hour. By all accounts it’s not pleasant.
 
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HSTEd

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That got totally modernised just a few years ago. It still has pinchpoints and constraints, some money can be thrown at to resolve, others not so easily

The WCRM couldn't overcome the fundamental flaws in the ancient infrastructure that makes up the system.
Attempting to replace all the flat junctions and constrained track layouts would cost so much money that it could never ever be attempted, and it has so many branches that it is highly track inefficient.

let us not forget the WCRM had in it plans to have 140mph running and cab signalling to enhance capacity, that were taken out following a massive overspend.

There was another reason the cab signalling was taken out.... they wanted moving block signalling which has still not been implemented on a system anywhere near as complicated at the WCML is.
Without the capacity enhancement from the signalling the 140mph running is totally impractical as you eat up paths like nothing else by running that fast on a conventional railway.

I'm not convinced you have read much of the official HS2 documentation that highlights the plan..... There would be 16 London St Pancras to Derby Trains per day, as well as 18 Nottingham - Matlock services per day to link Derby to East Midlands HS2 station.

How exactly does this contradict what I suggested?
A Derby-Toton shuttle does not contradict the idea of continuing direct St Pancras services which would never be able to compete timewise.
And since HS2 Ltd has absolutely no authority to dictate classic line stopping patterns we cannot accept any of its claims for connecting services with anything less than a bucketload of salt, especially at this distance in time from opening.

Not out of the question but the likelihood is that any such large scheme will be scaled back due to overspends, rather than be able to find additional monies for new bells and whistles to add on. I really worry for the East Midlands, and Sheffield economically following HS2, given the not urban nature of the stations, and that economic growth in the area would be served best by having businesses close to HS2 stations, how much of the benefit is going to be lost by the necessity to change for other services into the city centres, and how many people are going to flow outwards by having to drive to the HS2 hub station.

You may not have noticed, but city centres are already dying, most people and businesses are not based there.
The parkway gets the majority of the benefits of a city centre station without the budget-breaking pricetag.
Would you rather that the line proceeded from Birmingham to Leeds with no intermediate stops? That is the alternative to the parkway stations.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
So what's the issue with trains reversing? TGV's reverse at Narbonne so why not at Toton?

By the time the train has completed the reversing manouevre you could be half way to the city centre of Nottingham on the Tram which will essentially reach the parkway station. (It will directly serve the adjacent park and ride).

"I am sure" doesn't instill much confidence! If people have to take a local train out to Toton from Derby station (having already driven into Derby) I'm afraid a lot of people simply won't bother.

What alternative do they have?
They can either brave the traffic or take the shuttle.

On the contrary in the peak there is a clear need for compatible services into
Derby and Nottingham. If you're not convinced try the A52 in the morning rush hour. By all accounts it’s not pleasant.

I cannot see the justification for throwing away valuable paths serving cities short distances from a parkway station with what will be rather well developed transport links.

And Rush hour only services to destinations that are not served offpeak is hardly going to cultivate a large customer-base.
"If you miss the last rush hour train you are stranded.... sorry".
You have to serve places near-clockface over the course of the day or you otherwise might as well not bother.
 
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RichmondCommu

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And Rush hour only services to destinations that are not served offpeak is hardly going to cultivate a large customer-base.
"If you miss the last rush hour train you are stranded.... sorry".
You have to serve places near-clockface over the course of the day or you otherwise might as well not bother.

Oh don't be so ridiculous! There are clearly two other ways of getting home; EMT services from St Pancras or HS2 services to Toton. The fact is people in this country would rather not change trains especially as many currently have direct services to London. Therefore it makes absolute sense to have a few HS2 direct services to Derby and Nottingham in the peak when most people will be travelling.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
What alternative do they have?
They can either brave the traffic or take the shuttle.

Or they can take a EMT service to St Pancras and decide that changing trains is not worth the hastle.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
By the time the train has completed the reversing manouevre you could be half way to the city centre of Nottingham on the Tram which will essentially reach the parkway station. (It will directly serve the adjacent park and ride).

Thats a walk of several 100 metres before you even get to the tram. And you seriously don't believe that the TGV won't have already set off for Nottingham or Derby? Really?
 
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HSTEd

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Oh don't be so ridiculous! There are clearly two other ways of getting home; EMT services from St Pancras or HS2 services to Toton. The fact is people in this country would rather not change trains especially as many currently have direct services to London. Therefore it makes absolute sense to have a few HS2 direct services to Derby and Nottingham in the peak when most people will be travelling.

Except that path is now useless in the off-peak period.
We can push an hourly train to somewhere like Newcastle and have it filled in rush hour and partially during the rest of the day.... or we can put a peak hour service into Nottingham and not run the train at all the rest of the day.

There is a reason timetables are trending towards clockface derivatives.

And this is all based on the frankly silly assumption that Toton will be significantly harder to reach than the current station, which does not necessarily hold.
Especially as the London commuter market in Nottingham is almost nonexistant at the present time and will be created by this project.
People will presumably locate in areas easily reachable from the railway station.

Or they can take a EMT service to St Pancras and decide that changing trains is not worth the hastle.

If they do not wish to gain the benefits of reduced travel times and want to take the far longer option of taking the classic train to St Pancras they are ofcourse free to do so.

Given having one more change on my commute and 20 minutes extra in bed I know which option I owuld take.
 

RichmondCommu

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If they do not wish to gain the benefits of reduced travel times and want to take the far longer option of taking the classic train to St Pancras they are ofcourse free to do so.

Given having one more change on my commute and 20 minutes extra in bed I know which option I owuld take.

But with direct compatible services to Derby and Nottingham in the peak we are not talking about commuters using Toton at other times. And as I've already pointed out they could still take a HS2 train to Toton. Direct services would only be required in the peak!
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
And this is all based on the frankly silly assumption that Toton will be significantly harder to reach than the current station, which does not necessarily hold.
Especially as the London commuter market in Nottingham is almost nonexistant at the present time and will be created by this project.
People will presumably locate in areas easily reachable from the railway station.

Trust me, if you live in Derby the current station is much easier to access then a trip along the A52 to Toton. And the M1 (even with four lanes) is little better in the peak.

As to the area around Toton in terms of a place to live, well if I'm going to be kind it's patchy. If you're relying on people moving from the SE to Sandiacre and Long Eaton the business case is looking rather flimsy.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Except that path is now useless in the off-peak period.
We can push an hourly train to somewhere like Newcastle and have it filled in rush hour and partially during the rest of the day.... or we can put a peak hour service into Nottingham and not run the train at all the rest of the day.

There is a reason timetables are trending towards clockface derivatives.

I'm not so sure that every train from the north will start at Newcastle or that there will be a huge demand for travel from the NE to London in the peak. I think the distances will still be too long.
 

Martin222002

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Personally I view the Toton station as an addition to the city centre stations in Derby and Nottingham and not a replacement. I don't really see the current frequencies of 2tph from Derby and 2tph from Nottingham changing after HS2 opens, and that the Toton station would provide an additional 2-3tph for both of these cities. So 4-5tph form Derby and the same for Nottingham.

The reason I say I don't think services will change much on the MML post HS2 is three fold. Firstly, the MML will see a great deal of additional capacity created once its been electrified, with longer and higher capacity trains. Secondly, HS2 will not be serving the Leicester to London market, and as such Leicester will still warrant fast services to London to at least the same level as it has now, or possibly 4 fast trains after electrification. Thirdly, the main area where passenger capacity is needed and will be required in the future is that from the stations south of Leicester, which will see an increase in capacity after electrification, with the current mix of 5, 7 and 10 car 222s and HST replaced with higher capacity 12 car (379/350/1 like) EMUs.

The Toton station will also not just be able to serve the markets of Derby and Nottingham, but also the greater surrounding area, and the same should be said of the Sheffield station at Meadowhall. Also I'm not sure why no one has mentioned this yet (has anyone actually looked at the HS2 documents in detail?) but the current plans show that the Toton station will be directly served by the Nottingham Trams, with an extension from its currently planned terminus. While the tram may not provide the fastest link to Nottingham city centre, when compared to a connecting train service, it will link many communities on the western side of Nottingham to the Toton station.

While direct trains from HS2 to Derby and Nottingham stations would be nice, I have to agree with HSTed, that they are a luxury when it comes to the most affective use of the paths on HS2. For those people that do not want to change or that the car journey to Toton is inconvenient, there would still be slightly slower (when factoring connecting a connecting service from Toton) direct services to Derby and Nottingham station from St Pancras.

It has to be remembered that HS2s principle remit is to add additional capacity to the national rail network between the North & Midlands to London, and that reduced journey times are only an additional benefit of the line being high speed.
 
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edwin_m

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The Nottingham tram has been mentioned several times in recent posts. It is about 15 stops to the city centre and although it serves several major destinations in the western suburbs it wouldn't be competitive for the centre. What is really needed is a frequent direct train service to Nottingham and Derby, which may require a south-to-east curve at Trowell.

Rather than dying, many city centres have been doing much better in the last decade although mostly knocked sideways by the recession. The risk with out of town stations is encouragement of urban sprawl and car dependency, whereas putting the main transport nodes in the centres tends to reinforce the existing public transport network. I also think out-of-town stations will tend to concentrate prosperity in London (affluent locals finding it easy to drive to the station and get the train south) rather than bring it to the local cities (difficult for visitors to transfer into the centre).

Personally I'd make an exception for Meadowhall because it has excellent rail connections to all the major towns of South Yorkshire, except the Worksop line which could perhaps be linked by a through service reversing at Sheffield. However I think Toton faces a real challenge in land use and local transport planning if it is to be effective.

I'd also suggest that Toton is borderline in terms of attractiveness for London journeys. By 2032 Nottingham and Derby will be 90min from London on the classic network, Toton will be about 50min but the connecting train will be at least 10min plus quite a few minutes interchange time in such a large station. Hence it will only be slightly quicker for centre-to-centre journeys if the timings of the connecting trains are really slick.
 

Martin222002

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The Nottingham tram has been mentioned several times in recent posts. It is about 15 stops to the city centre and although it serves several major destinations in the western suburbs it wouldn't be competitive for the centre. What is really needed is a frequent direct train service to Nottingham and Derby, which may require a south-to-east curve at Trowell.

Rather than dying, many city centres have been doing much better in the last decade although mostly knocked sideways by the recession. The risk with out of town stations is encouragement of urban sprawl and car dependency, whereas putting the main transport nodes in the centres tends to reinforce the existing public transport network. I also think out-of-town stations will tend to concentrate prosperity in London (affluent locals finding it easy to drive to the station and get the train south) rather than bring it to the local cities (difficult for visitors to transfer into the centre).

Personally I'd make an exception for Meadowhall because it has excellent rail connections to all the major towns of South Yorkshire, except the Worksop line which could perhaps be linked by a through service reversing at Sheffield. However I think Toton faces a real challenge in land use and local transport planning if it is to be effective.

After properly looking into it, I agree that Meadowhall is going to work as a location with it's many connections by rail, tram and bus to the surrounding area and towns. Also unlike the Nottingham trams, the Sheffield Supertram does actually offer a competitive journey time to the city centre when compared with a connecting train to Sheffield station and walking up into the city centre.

The current tram journey time from Meadowhall to Cathedral (the city centre) in as little as 18 minutes, whereas the train takes between 5 (HS2s estimate and true on rear occasions) and 10 minutes (more close to reality, though some are timed for as long as 14 minutes currently) and then a 10 or so minute walk from the station to same area as Cathedral tram stop, makes the tram look very convenient for getting to Sheffield city centre.
 

Bonemaster

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The WCRM couldn't overcome the fundamental flaws in the ancient infrastructure that makes up the system.
Attempting to replace all the flat junctions and constrained track layouts would cost so much money that it could never ever be attempted, and it has so many branches that it is highly track inefficient.

Thats not the same argument as you was using earlier, the fact is that the infrastructure is not antiquated, it has pinch points which some are difficult to resolve which is what I said

There was another reason the cab signalling was taken out.... they wanted moving block signalling which has still not been implemented on a system anywhere near as complicated at the WCML is.

An expensive untested system, does not mean it is not do-able, or the best solution to an issue, you could argue that high speed lines in a country with population density spread as in the UK, has never been implemented either

Without the capacity enhancement from the signalling the 140mph running is totally impractical as you eat up paths like nothing else by running that fast on a conventional railway.

No running faster trains does not eat up paths, having larger speed differentials eats up paths, there is a strong argument to suggest what we require in this country is additional capacity and not higher speed running.

How exactly does this contradict what I suggested?

It makes it irrelevant, as the issue has already been dealt with in the published plans

And since HS2 Ltd has absolutely no authority to dictate classic line stopping patterns we cannot accept any of its claims for connecting services with anything less than a bucketload of salt, especially at this distance in time from opening.

Given the business case is built around freeing capacity and that the business case has been published based on a series of assumptions. Either the assumptions have a basis in fact and the business case has a basis in fact, or the assumptions are entirely fictional and the whole case for HS2 starts to tumble down. Plans will change over the timescales, but I wouldn't expect by huge amounts of difference, and given the DfTs level of input into both structures that this isn't going to be massively different to the final outcome.

You may not have noticed, but city centres are already dying, most people and businesses are not based there.

I suspect you maybe surprised, how much not retail employment is supported in city centres, a quick bit of research for your local town maybe able to give you some indicative numbers based upon the largest local employers, I've checked two cities I know enough about to do this for and even I was surprised. Add to that the strength of feeling that exists for regenerating city and town centres, just take how many towns and cities took the trouble and cost to apply for the Portas Pilot.

The parkway gets the majority of the benefits of a city centre station without the budget-breaking pricetag.
Would you rather that the line proceeded from Birmingham to Leeds with no intermediate stops? That is the alternative to the parkway stations.

No, it shows why the project is flawed from the outset, parkway stations bring benefits for taking people out of an area, and much less for bringing people in
 

yorksrob

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Good discussion on the Today Programme about HS2 yesterday. Quite a good and well considered argument from both sides touching on Virgin's less than optimal use of train capacity during peak times (the anti's) and the need to provide capacity for freights and stoppers on local lines (the pro's).

They interviewed some WCML travellers about how useful they would find the quicker journey times (but said they'd left out the comments of the stag party who'd have less time drinking :lol:).
 

Chris125

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By 2032 Nottingham and Derby will be 90min from London on the classic network, Toton will be about 50min but the connecting train will be at least 10min plus quite a few minutes interchange time in such a large station. Hence it will only be slightly quicker for centre-to-centre journeys if the timings of the connecting trains are really slick.

While that may be true based on today's stopping patterns, they are unlikely to remain unchanged once HS2 opens given the need to release capacity - one possibility is identified in this document for example with changes to both stopping patterns and frequency.

Chris
 
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Martin222002

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While that may be true based on today's stopping patterns, they are unlikely to remain unchanged once HS2 opens given the need to release capacity - one possibility is identified in this document for example with changes to both stopping patterns and frequency.

Chris

Which is pretty much the same as what services there are now less one fast service from Sheffield-Chesterfield-Derby-Leicester-London, with no enhancement in services calling at Market Harborough, Kettering, Wellingborough, Bedford (fast services), and Luton/Luton Airport Parkway (fast services) to and from London, which is where the extra capacity will be needed, and Leicester's fast services reduced from 3 to 2 tph.
 
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edwin_m

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The current tram journey time from Meadowhall to Cathedral (the city centre) in as little as 18 minutes, whereas the train takes between 5 (HS2s estimate and true on rear occasions) and 10 minutes (more close to reality, though some are timed for as long as 14 minutes currently) and then a 10 or so minute walk from the station to same area as Cathedral tram stop, makes the tram look very convenient for getting to Sheffield city centre.

Interesting thought. I was kind of assuming train would be the logical route for access to the city centre but the walk up from Midland is quite a deterrent! If HS2 had decided on a station in the "centre" of Sheffield it would actually have been either at Midland or on the Victoria site, which would suffer the same problem.
 

gordonthemoron

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The fast lines with all those non stopping trains currently has 12tph. The slow lines with the stopper trains has 5tph. Say again what reduces capacity...

The NR capacity study has 9tph on the fasts, the HS2 ltd suggestion is 7.75tph...

the 5tph you mention is between Tring and Wembley Central and consists of LM & Southern services. However, the slows also cater for freight traffic and the occasional charter. As has been said elsewhere, the load on the fasts needs to be reduced to allow for capacity when there are track and OHLE problems, like the repetitive problems north of Wolverton
 

brianthegiant

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I'd also suggest that Toton is borderline in terms of attractiveness for London journeys. By 2032 Nottingham and Derby will be 90min from London on the classic network, Toton will be about 50min but the connecting train will be at least 10min plus quite a few minutes interchange time in such a large station. Hence it will only be slightly quicker for centre-to-centre journeys if the timings of the connecting trains are really slick.

I think you're slightly falling into the trap of comparing HS2 journey times with what's currently available. On that basis, the best engineering solution is to build lines following same alignment and stopping at same stations.
Sure if you live nearer to Nottingham city station and want to get to Central london, the MML might still be your best option. Quite a lot of people live closer to HS2 Toton than other stations with London services.
I also think there is a significant suppressed demand for people wanting to get from the Midlands & the North to Heathrow, (& Bham Intl for North & east Midlands) for example.
So it makes sense to do a N-S alignment thats different to ECML/MML/WCML but that makes it difficult to compare HS2 with classics on journey times due to complex set of factors.
 

gordonthemoron

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I doubt Toton will be a particularly large station, surely not much bigger than East Midlands Parkway but with (some) longer platforms?
 

edwin_m

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I doubt Toton will be a particularly large station, surely not much bigger than East Midlands Parkway but with (some) longer platforms?

Four high speed platforms and four classic ones, which on both number of platforms and total area will make it the largest station in the region!
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
I think you're slightly falling into the trap of comparing HS2 journey times with what's currently available. On that basis, the best engineering solution is to build lines following same alignment and stopping at same stations.
Sure if you live nearer to Nottingham city station and want to get to Central london, the MML might still be your best option. Quite a lot of people live closer to HS2 Toton than other stations with London services.
I also think there is a significant suppressed demand for people wanting to get from the Midlands & the North to Heathrow, (& Bham Intl for North & east Midlands) for example.
So it makes sense to do a N-S alignment thats different to ECML/MML/WCML but that makes it difficult to compare HS2 with classics on journey times due to complex set of factors.

I agree there was never any question of building HS2 into the centre of Nottingham. If HS2 appeared today as currently planned (along with the 12min connecting train service) I personally would find it useful for Heathrow and destinations such as Leeds or Newcastle but questionable for Birmingham or central London. I also agree that this relatively attractiveness depends on where someone lives - if I was in the western suburbs near the tram line the equation would be very different.

However for incoming passengers to the East Midlands central Nottingham is likely to be the main destination, and there is also the risk of modal shift from public transport to car by those that decide to drive to Toton instead of taking a bus or tram to Midland station. These are the reasons why I think the connection to Midland station is of paramount importance and even with this the usefulness of HS2 to Nottingham is limited. Of course if it was in Derby as they local council suggests then it wouldn't be attractive for any journey to/from any part of Nottingham!
 

HowardGWR

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I don't see any evidence that incoming (or outgoing) pax are more likely to want a central Nottingham destination (or origin). In fact I don't see any evidence about any of what is written here on that subject. Is there a reliable O /D survey for present services? E.g, for London to the whole Derby Notts area, what is the overall pattern of O and D?

Without those data, any discussion on Toton as a sensible HS2 station is speculation.
 
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HSTEd

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Surely public transport networks would shift to give Toton greater prominence as it siphons off traffic from the city centre stations, hopefully preventing the massive modal shift many here seem to fear?
 

edwin_m

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The HS2 patronage at Toton would be in the order of a few hundred an hour, so while it warrants diverting an existing bus or train or even extending the tram it's unlikely to result in a major reconfiguration of the local public transport network.
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I don't see any evidence that incoming (or outgoing) pax are more likely to want a central Nottingham destination (or origin). In fact I don't see any evidence about any of what is written here on that subject. Is there a reliable O /D survey for present services? E.g, for London to the whole Derby Notts area, what is the overall pattern of O and D?

Without those data, any discussion on Toton as a sensible HS2 station is speculation.

The general expectation for any city is that visiting business passengers and visiting tourists will disproporationately have destinations in the city centre where there is a concentration of business facilities and tourist attractions. In different ways both these market segments are important for bringing prosperity into a region.

Obviously not all of these people will be heading for the city centre. There will also be market segments which don't focus so much on the centre (such as those visiting friends and relatives, whose destination catchment will be similar to the domestic origin catchment) but they may travel via the city centre to take advantage of its public transport links to surrounding areas. Other market segments such as commuters will also head disproportionately to the centre but are unlikely to use HS2.

No I don't have any numbers to back this up, nor do I know what level of detail HS2 have studied, but I work closely with transport planners and am currently involved in bidding for a business case study for high speed rail in another region. Here, and probably elsewhere too, there is a comprehensive multi-modal computer model based on O-D data from the census and from surveys, which can be used to predict with reasonable accuracy the effect of changes to the highway or public transport networks.
 

HowardGWR

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The HS2 patronage at Toton would be in the order of a few hundred an hour, so while it warrants diverting an existing bus or train or even extending the tram it's unlikely to result in a major reconfiguration of the local public transport network.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


The general expectation for any city is that visiting business passengers and visiting tourists will disproporationately have destinations in the city centre where there is a concentration of business facilities and tourist attractions. In different ways both these market segments are important for bringing prosperity into a region.

Obviously not all of these people will be heading for the city centre. There will also be market segments which don't focus so much on the centre (such as those visiting friends and relatives, whose destination catchment will be similar to the domestic origin catchment) but they may travel via the city centre to take advantage of its public transport links to surrounding areas. Other market segments such as commuters will also head disproportionately to the centre but are unlikely to use HS2.

No I don't have any numbers to back this up, nor do I know what level of detail HS2 have studied, but I work closely with transport planners and am currently involved in bidding for a business case study for high speed rail in another region. Here, and probably elsewhere too, there is a comprehensive multi-modal computer model based on O-D data from the census and from surveys, which can be used to predict with reasonable accuracy the effect of changes to the highway or public transport networks.

Well, with respect, in your last summarising paragraph you agree with me that these data are required before anyone tries to say that the location of Toton is faulty or otherwise. That was my point.
 
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