ATW May 2013 Timetable

[Gareth Marston]

Current rumour is new transport minister is questioning everything including cost of Gerald

 

[anthony263]

Current rumour is new transport minister is questioning everything including cost of Gerald

Can't say I blame her especially since the WG will need to find the money for new infrastructure projects especially if the rumours I have heard tonight are true about the Ebbw Vale line being extended

 

[Gareth Marston]

Can't say I blame her especially since the WG will need to find the money for new infrastructure projects especially if the rumours I have heard tonight are true about the Ebbw Vale line being extended

Yes 11.5 million for town extension announced today though funding for capital and revenue come from different pots

 

[SprinterMan]

Current rumour is new transport minister is questioning everything including cost of Gerald

Oh damn, I have a horrible feeling that by 2015 there will no Gerald, and Chiltern will have some new coaches in their fleet, if you catch my drift.


For the rest of the week, northbound Gerald is calling additionally at Shotton. Does anyone have any idea why?

Adam

 

[merlodlliw]

Current rumour is new transport minister is questioning everything including cost of Gerald

I too have heard this, I hope she asks deep questions about the Anglesey to Cardiff WG paid for Aircraft route, however I suppose as WG now own Roose that may well be safe.

 

[merlodlliw]

Oh damn, I have a horrible feeling that by 2015 there will no Gerald, and Chiltern will have some new coaches in their fleet, if you catch my drift.


For the rest of the week, northbound Gerald is calling additionally at Shotton. Does anyone have any idea why?

Adam

I would imagine Gerald may well be safe,as WG have just paid £3.5M for the mark 3 refits,although the Dining car could well become a buffet,if current patronage is checked out.

As for calling at Shotton, no idea

 

[Welshman]

For the rest of the week, northbound Gerald is calling additionally at Shotton. Does anyone have any idea why?

Adam

Sorry, but I can't see anything about an extra stop at Shotton there.

 

[SprinterMan]

Sorry, but I can't see anything about an extra stop at Shotton there.

That's really weird, it's gone now. Must have been an error that has now been removed. Sorry, false alarm people :P

EDIT: Stop at Shotton still shows up on RealTimeTrains.

Adam

 

[davetheguard]

Have just returned from a long weekend in Porthmadog, and was surprised to find that the Cambrian Coast Line has only one train pair on a Sunday.

So we duly caught the 14.12 from Porthmadog to Birmingham New Street, which was fairly well used, picking up and dropping off all the way - we only missed out three of the request stops.

Barmouth's car parks appeared full to overflowing, surely there's a market for a more frequent Sunday train service than this?

Anyone know what the service has been like in the past - perhaps one a day is better than previous decades?!

 

[transmanche]

Barmouth's car parks appeared full to overflowing, surely there's a market for a more frequent Sunday train service than this?

Anyone know what the service has been like in the past - perhaps one a day is better than previous decades?!

That's the 'winter' timetable. There are three trains each way on summer Sundays (19 May-8 Sep).

 

[merlodlliw]

That's the 'winter' timetable. There are three trains each way on summer Sundays (19 May-8 Sep).

Correct, the one Up & Down on the winter timetable is financed by Gwynedd County Council, it is the only means of public transport to some of the halts.

 

[Gareth Marston]

That's the 'winter' timetable. There are three trains each way on summer Sundays (19 May-8 Sep).

The franchise agreement PSR bears little resemblance to real demand

 

[PHILIPE]

Have just returned from a long weekend in Porthmadog, and was surprised to find that the Cambrian Coast Line has only one train pair on a Sunday.

So we duly caught the 14.12 from Porthmadog to Birmingham New Street, which was fairly well used, picking up and dropping off all the way - we only missed out three of the request stops.

Barmouth's car parks appeared full to overflowing, surely there's a market for a more frequent Sunday train service than this?

Anyone know what the service has been like in the past - perhaps one a day is better than previous decades?!

It is only since the early 90s or very late 80s that there has been a service at all West of Shrewsbury on Sundays.

 

[davetheguard]

I'm not sure how easy it is these days for a TOC to enhance the timetable if they can see a commercial opportunity.

The DfT seems to rule the roost (or Welsh Assembly) which stops these sort of timetable improvements.

Then again, in my opinion, none of the Arriva franchises seem to show much sign of innovation either....

 

[Gareth Marston]

I'm not sure how easy it is these days for a TOC to enhance the timetable if they can see a commercial opportunity.

The DfT seems to rule the roost (or Welsh Assembly) which stops these sort of timetable improvements.

Then again, in my opinion, none of the Arriva franchises seem to show much sign of innovation either....

ATWs attitude has always been if someone else pays
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

It is only since the early 90s or very late 80s that there has been a service at all West of Shrewsbury on Sundays.

No I can remember summer Sunday trains definitely as a child growing up in Caersws

 

[Greenback]

No I can remember summer Sunday trains definitely as a child growing up in Caersws

You are correct. There have been trains to Aberystwyth on a Sunday for many years, if not always. Also, I have old timetables showing Sunday services to Barmouth in the early 1980's - IIRC these trains used a long demolished platform to the south of the level crossing to avoid the need to open the signal box at the crossing.

 

[anthony263]

I seriously cannot wait til the wales and Borders franchise is put out for renewal.

Hopefully the new franchise will be cheaper to run so money saved can be put into improving rail services around Wales.

The standard timetable has been good but I prefered things under National Express.

Lets hope as well the new franchise gets additional dmu's for use around wales, I certainly hope someday to see a direct north wales - Liverpool service using the Hatton Curve

 

[PHILIPE]

I seriously cannot wait til the wales and Borders franchise is put out for renewal.

Hopefully the new franchise will be cheaper to run so money saved can be put into improving rail services around Wales.

The standard timetable has been good but I prefered things under National Express.

Lets hope as well the new franchise gets additional dmu's for use around wales, I certainly hope someday to see a direct north wales - Liverpool service using the Hatton Curve

I don't hold up much hope for the Halton Curve when you have a good service to Liverpool already, although changing at Chester to Merseyrail.

 

[Gareth Marston]

You are correct. There have been trains to Aberystwyth on a Sunday for many years, if not always. Also, I have old timetables showing Sunday services to Barmouth in the early 1980's - IIRC these trains used a long demolished platform to the south of the level crossing to avoid the need to open the signal box at the crossing.

dug out my June 81/May 82 all lines BR tt.
Summer Sundays till 06 September there were 3 trains between Machynlleth and Aberystwyth, 1 Machynlleth to Barmouth working and 2 on the Shrewsbury-Mahcynlleth section.

 

[30907]

Not sure about the use of the old Dolgellau bay, though, even if the track was still there by then. I remember it as pretty derelict as far back as 1971.

There wouldn't have been much point anyway, surely, as these were the days of token working so Barmouth South box would have had to be open.

 

[Eire Sprinter]

I was at Holyhead today, and had a chat with a lovely guy at Arriva customer services about the overnight boat train. Arriva stopped operating it in 2005 or 2006 due to the amount of problems caused by drunks. It got to the point where Arriva didn't want to run the train anymore because of these problems (I assume they didn't want to endanger staff or passengers). Virgin then picked up the train, but ran into the same problems as Arriva did. The train was not heavily used by ferry passengers, who were outnumbered by drunks who caused problems. Virgin unsurprisingly pulled the train, and gave us the 2020 Bangor - Birmingham instead. The toilets in Holyhead ferry terminal are 24/7 now, and there is a cafe open until 2, and the wait for the 0425 train is only just over 2 hours longer than for the old 0215 anyway, so it is not the end of the world. While inconvenient, apparently the 0425 is much safer than the old 0215 was (I can vouch for the fact that the 0425 is very quiet and a relaxing travel environment).

It was different from the Fishguard boat train, as Fishguard Harbour station only served the ferry terminal and not the town (this situation has changed slightly with the new station at Goodwick) and the first town of any size the train passed through was Carmarthen, when it was only 40mins from journey's end. Holyhead & Bangor are both sizeable towns, and the train had to go all the way to Birmingham through Chester and Crewe, meaning there was a much greater chance for rowdiness. As much as a kick in the teeth it is for ferry passengers, I do now sympathise with the TOCs, and 2 hours really isn't the end of the world now there are loos. I was also told that there is as near as makes no difference no chance of the train making a comeback.

Adam

Interesting information and perspectives, so that explains the security issue. While understanding the train operators' perspective it's nonetheless disappointing that those engaging in antisocial behaviour have effectively "won" and caused the service to cease. Now with the uptake in usage of travel by sea and rail the greater good for users has "lost". The rail companies have also lost as a four hour wait is, in my view and no offence intended, not realistic.

As I see it from Ireland the only three viable overnight sea and land options are:

* Travel via Rosslare-Fishguard, the only continuous sea-rail overnight option. The downsides are that this only works with certain origins in Ireland and destinations in Britain. Also the fact that there's only a connecting train down to Rosslare M-F needs to be factored in.

* Take the 02.15 sailing from Dublin (Stena Nordica) which reaches Holyhead at 05.45. Since the start of April all four sailings of the Stena Nordica (2 each way) now carry foot passengers. On the Dublin side this assumes taking a taxi or getting dropped to the port. For people coming from elsewhere in Ireland this could mean a long wait between the arrival of the last train/bus in Dublin and the ferry sailing.

* Take the Eurolines coach. Between the two coach routes several key destinations can be accessed. In many respects these two coaches are the de facto night boat train out of Holyhead.

Rail and ferry works fairly well overnight in the reverse direction, from Holyhead to Dublin.

So a mixed bag of a situation which has evolved from a whole variety of events and issues. No doubt the future may well bring further changes, good, bad or indifferent to the overnight travel experience.

 

[Rhydgaled]

A nice idea but it just ain't going to happen at the moment!!! At presen t the services on the HOWL are the subject of a "study" to look at the best way to improve services on the line. The study is apparently being undertaken from a point zero perspective as opposed to tweaking existing services which hopefully some time in the not too distant future will result in a recast timetable to meet the not inconsiderable variety of needs along the length of the line. We can but hope!

Is the study just looking at better timetabling of the existing four-a-day service or an enhanced frequency? If the latter, and anyone here can forward suggestions, my thinking is something like:

• Morning commuter Llandrindod - Swansea all-stops service*
• Morning commuter Llanwrtyd - Shrewsbury all-stops service*
• Full-length 'selected-stops' service (each way)
• Full-length all-stops service (each way)
• Full-length 'selected-stops' service (each way)
• Full-length all-stops service (each way)
• Full-length 'selected-stops' service (each way)
• Late evening Shrewsbury - Llanwrtyd all-stops service*
• Late evening Swansea - Llandrindod all-stops service*

* These workings could be implemented either by:

• Stabling two units overnight at Llandrindod, working to Llanwrtyd in multiple in the morning and then detaching the Llanwrtyd - Shrewsbury unit or
• Running fast to Llandrindod/Llanwrtyd from Swansea/Shrewsbury

I heard a rumour a while ago about more LHCS service being introduced in December 2013. Has anyone heard anything else about this?

Adam

ATW Director Mike Bagshaw was asked this question at the Wrexham meeting in March, other than running "Gerald" on special occasions, no was the answer, due to cost of running LHCS sets.
I have not heard any different, I am sure it was a rumor.

How many mark3s were refurbished for ATW? I still don't understand why ATW have 3 67s and 3 DVTs for one train, surely one DVT running and one spare is enough?

Also, didn't that study somebody posted about the Wrexham -Chester partial-redoubling propose hourly Cardiff - Holyhead services with the extra workings formed of 67+mrk3+DVT rakes?

I have to agree with you. The only reason I can see atw using more loco hauled rakes (Most likely making use of the mark2 carriages they have) is if they have to provide extra capacity and thats if they are given permission.

The WG did want additional rolling stock from 2015 especially if services run to Rhymney every 30 minutes and the services to Maesteg is increased in frequency.

The only way ATW could really do that is to cut existing services, get hold of additional rolling stock from elsewhere in the uk which will be difficult considering everyone else will be after the same thing.

Of course they could do something very drastic and re-introduce loco hauled services to certain routes on the Cardiff Valley Lines network (i.e. The Rhymney Valley services) The problem with that is that locos will need to run round or perhaps push-pull of course this will mean ATW will need to get hold of some DBSO's and some loco's as well as making sure the mark 2's are wired.

According to what I've read on here in the past, ATW's mrk2s are through-wired with multiple-working cables for top&tail class 37s. Using the mrk2s with either top&tail 37s, DBSOs or a class 47 (assuming a route it can run-round at the ends of is found, the 50min layover in MAN on north Wales services might allow a run-round, if there's a second track next to where the 175 parks at the moment) would seem to be the only solution to capacity issues and woefully inappropriate class 150 deployments.

I too have heard this, I hope she asks deep questions about the Anglesey to Cardiff WG paid for Aircraft route, however I suppose as WG now own Roose that may well be safe.

Yes, scrap Iuean Air somebody, please.

I'm not sure how easy it is these days for a TOC to enhance the timetable if they can see a commercial opportunity.

The DfT seems to rule the roost (or Welsh Assembly) which stops these sort of timetable improvements.

Then again, in my opinion, none of the Arriva franchises seem to show much sign of innovation either....

ATW did change the first evening Fishguard service to start from Gloucester, which possibly could be considered innovation. Shame they aren't innovating a solution to the problems of using their mrk2s...

 

[merlodlliw]

Interesting information and perspectives, so that explains the security issue. While understanding the train operators' perspective it's nonetheless disappointing that those engaging in antisocial behaviour have effectively "won" and caused the service to cease. Now with the uptake in usage of travel by sea and rail the greater good for users has "lost". The rail companies have also lost as a four hour wait is, in my view and no offence intended, not realistic.

As I see it from Ireland the only three viable overnight sea and land options are:

* Travel via Rosslare-Fishguard, the only continuous sea-rail overnight option. The downsides are that this only works with certain origins in Ireland and destinations in Britain. Also the fact that there's only a connecting train down to Rosslare M-F needs to be factored in.

* Take the 02.15 sailing from Dublin (Stena Nordica) which reaches Holyhead at 05.45. Since the start of April all four sailings of the Stena Nordica (2 each way) now carry foot passengers. On the Dublin side this assumes taking a taxi or getting dropped to the port. For people coming from elsewhere in Ireland this could mean a long wait between the arrival of the last train/bus in Dublin and the ferry sailing.

* Take the Eurolines coach. Between the two coach routes several key destinations can be accessed. In many respects these two coaches are the de facto night boat train out of Holyhead.

Rail and ferry works fairly well overnight in the reverse direction, from Holyhead to Dublin.

So a mixed bag of a situation which has evolved from a whole variety of events and issues. No doubt the future may well bring further changes, good, bad or indifferent to the overnight travel experience.

I recall VT stopping the 0225 service, the press handout stated, "Due to so few passengers using the service to Birmingham, we regret the service will have to be withdrawn as of ............" I do not recall anti social behavior being stated for the withdrawal.

I am sure they put in a sop, something like" we will introduce a new 0425 service for London passengers,with connections at Chester for Liverpool,& connections at Crewe for Birmingham etc"

 

[merlodlliw]

How many mark3s were refurbished for ATW? I still don't understand why ATW have 3 67s and 3 DVTs for one train, surely one DVT running and one spare is enough?

Also, didn't that study somebody posted about the Wrexham -Chester partial-redoubling propose hourly Cardiff - Holyhead services with the extra workings formed of 67+mrk3+DVT rakes?

Interesting question how many marks 3s were refurbed, without looking it up my guess is six plus attention to the dinners,I do know WG funded the refurbs at Cardiff Pullman at a cost of £3.5 millions,

As for the Chester to Wrexham redouble,Mike Bagshaw told us, the one service an hour up & down, could be increased to 3 an hour each way,this would be possible with increased line speeds between Chester & Shrewsbury,he made no mention of to/from.

As for the three 67s & DVTs you mention, I was under the impression, one of each was now with Chiltern, just leaving a spare set for "Gerald"

 

[swcovas]

Is the study just looking at better timetabling of the existing four-a-day service or an enhanced frequency? If the latter, and anyone here can forward suggestions, my thinking is something like:

• Morning commuter Llandrindod - Swansea all-stops service*
• Morning commuter Llanwrtyd - Shrewsbury all-stops service*
• Full-length 'selected-stops' service (each way)
• Full-length all-stops service (each way)
• Full-length 'selected-stops' service (each way)
• Full-length all-stops service (each way)
• Full-length 'selected-stops' service (each way)
• Late evening Shrewsbury - Llanwrtyd all-stops service*
• Late evening Swansea - Llandrindod all-stops service*

* These workings could be implemented either by:

• Stabling two units overnight at Llandrindod, working to Llanwrtyd in multiple in the morning and then detaching the Llanwrtyd - Shrewsbury unit or
• Running fast to Llandrindod/Llanwrtyd from Swansea/Shrewsbury

I think your ideas are perfectly sound and reasonable. When Jacobs Consultancy published their Cost benefit report in 2010 (which incidentally resulted in a positive CBR) they came up with a “new” 5 trains each way tt which basically just fitted an extra train each way into the existing abomination of a tt which has existed for the last 20+ years with a little tweaking here and there. Yes, it did give some new journey opportunities but didn’t redress many of the current problems such as the two trains which are virtually ECS workings and no first arrival in Swansea until after 9am.

As I understand it the current pre feasibility report into a form of Community Management is going to, and I quote “………the best way forward was by starting from scratch rather than seeking numerous small modifications to the existing service – the ‘blank sheet’ approach”. I think the best that can be hoped for is five trains a day each way AND/OR an extra short working. It is the possible establishment of a crew signing on point at Llandovery rather than Llandrindod that is being considered which would presumably lead to a 0715 ish departure to Swansea which IMO, if marketed well, could be very popular.

Anyway, there are lots of other aspects to be factored in such as train crew productivity and optimisation and, of course, availability of stock. I am sure ways can be found…..as Gareth Marston has pointed out ATW are quite happy to do anything as long as someone else pays for it! And finance for any improvements will almost certainly have to come via the WAG.

For anyone interested the Community Management Study can be found on the HOWL Forum site (not the most informative website!):
www.heart-of-wales.co.uk/news.htm#Forum

 

[PHILIPE]

You are correct. There have been trains to Aberystwyth on a Sunday for many years, if not always. Also, I have old timetables showing Sunday services to Barmouth in the early 1980's - IIRC these trains used a long demolished platform to the south of the level crossing to avoid the need to open the signal box at the crossing.

I think I got confused with the Heart of Wales Sunday services when talking about when they started on the the Cambrian. I lived in Shrewsbury through childhood and there were no trains on a Sunday up and until time I left there in 1974.

 

[merlodlliw]

I think I got confused with the Heart of Wales Sunday services when talking about when they started on the the Cambrian. I lived in Shrewsbury through childhood and there were no trains on a Sunday up and until time I left there in 1974.

Its all those years ago, but if I am wrong Gareth will correct me, I am sure a bus/rail service ran from Shrewsbury to Aber on Sundays ,then the Sunday rail service was introduced.

I am aware the Sunday HOWL train service, one a day was paid for by the various County Councils, this being the only form of public transport on a Sunday in many of the areas, I also saw an interesting article in this months Network Wales(Wales Council For Voluntary Action) newsletter, it stated "Powys is the most rural County in England & Wales," in size it borders Wrexham & Neath Port Talbot.

 

[SprinterMan]

Interesting information and perspectives, so that explains the security issue. While understanding the train operators' perspective it's nonetheless disappointing that those engaging in antisocial behaviour have effectively "won" and caused the service to cease. Now with the uptake in usage of travel by sea and rail the greater good for users has "lost". The rail companies have also lost as a four hour wait is, in my view and no offence intended, not realistic.

As I see it from Ireland the only three viable overnight sea and land options are:

* Travel via Rosslare-Fishguard, the only continuous sea-rail overnight option. The downsides are that this only works with certain origins in Ireland and destinations in Britain. Also the fact that there's only a connecting train down to Rosslare M-F needs to be factored in.

* Take the 02.15 sailing from Dublin (Stena Nordica) which reaches Holyhead at 05.45. Since the start of April all four sailings of the Stena Nordica (2 each way) now carry foot passengers. On the Dublin side this assumes taking a taxi or getting dropped to the port. For people coming from elsewhere in Ireland this could mean a long wait between the arrival of the last train/bus in Dublin and the ferry sailing.

* Take the Eurolines coach. Between the two coach routes several key destinations can be accessed. In many respects these two coaches are the de facto night boat train out of Holyhead.

Rail and ferry works fairly well overnight in the reverse direction, from Holyhead to Dublin.

So a mixed bag of a situation which has evolved from a whole variety of events and issues. No doubt the future may well bring further changes, good, bad or indifferent to the overnight travel experience.

Thanks, glad my info was of use I can see why people would not want to wait at the bleak and desolate Holyhead for 4 hours, it would not be pleasant to say the least. I was just thinking that people would either be asleep or messing around with smartphones or tablet computers for that period. It is a nice touch the bathrooms are open 24/7 now, it does at least show that Stena are aware of the problem. It is a shame the service was lost because of a handful of idiots ruining it for the rest of us, but that seems to be unfortunately the case in more and more situations now.

Excellent call on the coach service by the way, I was not aware that it existed. It replaces the train rather nicely. Full timings of the coach services can be found here.

I recall VT stopping the 0225 service, the press handout stated, "Due to so few passengers using the service to Birmingham, we regret the service will have to be withdrawn as of ............" I do not recall anti social behavior being stated for the withdrawal.

I am sure they put in a sop, something like" we will introduce a new 0425 service for London passengers,with connections at Chester for Liverpool,& connections at Crewe for Birmingham etc"

It sounds a lot better cancelling a service because of lack of use than cancelling it because of misbehaving passengers, and so Virgin, PR machine that they are, made it sounds as good as they could. Lack of usage was one of the reasons for cancellation, but not the main one. Virgin did do as they said they would and gave us a new early morning service to London, 1R13 0448 Holyhead to London Euston.

Adam

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I seriously cannot wait til the wales and Borders franchise is put out for renewal.
Hopefully the new franchise will be cheaper to run so money saved can be put into improving rail services around Wales.
The standard timetable has been good but I prefered things under National Express.
Lets hope as well the new franchise gets additional dmu's for use around wales, I certainly hope someday to see a direct north wales - Liverpool service using the Halton Curve

By the time we get to bid time for the next franchise (2017), we should have a new HLOS for CP6 on the table from HMG/WG.
If the North Wales main line is ever to be electrified, that is the critical document for getting it done.
There should be new franchises in place for WC, GW and Northern/TP (but not XC). West Midlands should just have been awarded in 2017.
Electrification will be in full swing on the SWML and on the Valleys network.
IEPs will be starting to operate, and an EMU fleet will be at least earmarked for Wales if not actually running.
Wrexham-Chester will have been redoubled, and line speeds will be higher on the Wolverhampton-Chester run (modest reduction in journey times).
Resignalling will be well under way in the Marches and the NWML.
The Northern Hub/TP electrification will be taking shape on the ground, with the Northern/TP future franchise setup and its interface with W&B clarified.
So capacity will be improved from now.

There won't be any more DMUs on W&B books. Maybe the Valleys fleet will be recycled after 2019 (not Pacers ).
There will have to be a solution to running 175s/158s under the wires between Newport and Swansea which might release some for other work (but only if there is a Bristol-Swansea EMU service).

Wolverhampton-Shrewsbury electrification may well be in CP6.
That would be good for Salop but might mean W&B don't operate east of Shrewsbury.
This would at least free up more 158s (and maybe provide enough stock for a Cambrian hourly service - but only to Shrewsbury ).

The biggest issue for W&B will continue to be the level of subsidy.
If you were hoping for money for loco-hauled services I fear you may be disappointed.
(Although you might find WC operating mini-Pendos with new diesel locos away from the wires).
I don't see the Halton Curve working, or Wrexham-Bidston electrics.
Five years is too long to predict anything properly anyway.
A new shade of government may well be in at Westminster (probably not in Cardiff).
The world will be a different place then. We need one of those palantir things.

Exits stage left and waits for brickbats...

 

[Gareth Marston]

By the time we get to bid time for the next franchise (2017), we should have a new HLOS for CP6 on the table from HMG/WG.
If the North Wales main line is ever to be electrified, that is the critical document for getting it done.
There should be new franchises in place for WC, GW and Northern/TP (but not XC). West Midlands should just have been awarded in 2017.
Electrification will be in full swing on the SWML and on the Valleys network.
IEPs will be starting to operate, and an EMU fleet will be at least earmarked for Wales if not actually running.
Wrexham-Chester will have been redoubled, and line speeds will be higher on the Wolverhampton-Chester run (modest reduction in journey times).
Resignalling will be well under way in the Marches and the NWML.
The Northern Hub/TP electrification will be taking shape on the ground, with the Northern/TP future franchise setup and its interface with W&B clarified.
So capacity will be improved from now.

There won't be any more DMUs on W&B books. Maybe the Valleys fleet will be recycled after 2019 (not Pacers ).
There will have to be a solution to running 175s/158s under the wires between Newport and Swansea which might release some for other work (but only if there is a Bristol-Swansea EMU service).

Wolverhampton-Shrewsbury electrification may well be in CP6.
That would be good for Salop but might mean W&B don't operate east of Shrewsbury.
This would at least free up more 158s (and maybe provide enough stock for a Cambrian hourly service - but only to Shrewsbury ).

The biggest issue for W&B will continue to be the level of subsidy.
If you were hoping for money for loco-hauled services I fear you may be disappointed.
(Although you might find WC operating mini-Pendos with new diesel locos away from the wires).
I don't see the Halton Curve working, or Wrexham-Bidston electrics.
Five years is too long to predict anything properly anyway.
A new shade of government may well be in at Westminster (probably not in Cardiff).
The world will be a different place then. We need one of those palantir things.

Exits stage left and waits for brickbats...

High percentage of Cambrian traffic is into West Midlands and beyond and changing at Shrewsbury is going to seriously inconvenience many and add literally hundreds of thousands of interchange passengers to be accommodated at Shrewsbury. Whilst I agree that Wales Border DMU's under wires are not necessarily a good thing I would hope that some through trains to Birmingham remain especially at key times.