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Future of the Intercity 125s

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tbtc

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Yuk, I hope not! (But then I'm biased, having occasionally travelled from Southampton to Newport) :)

I personally envisage that more wires will go up in the Southampton area in CP6. If that results in wires from Salisbury to Portsmouth, it's probably worth finishing the route and running the whole thing with EMUs.

To be honest, that route isn't far off being an Intercity service in its own right, it could really do with longer and faster trains.

I admit that I'm guessing when I suggest a cut to the through service, but if we are serious about ridding ourselves of Pacers then...

...but at the same time, it's only a shortish section from Bath to Southampton at the start of CP6 so that it becomes a continuous electrification project (much like Sheffield - Moorthorpe/ Doncaster!).

Am sure the route could work with the same longer distance EMUs required for Liverpool - Newcastle (etc
 
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AndyLandy

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Am sure the route could work with the same longer distance EMUs required for Liverpool - Newcastle (etc

Which, in an ideal world, would probably be an AC variant on the 444 (or a suitable equivalent from Bombardier or Alstom).

On that note, why do all the variants of Turbostar and Electrostar have 1/3; 2/3 doors? Surely there must be a market for the more Intercity type of accommodation with end doors and vestibules.

I really hope it's not a sign of the times that we're moving to more commuter-type trains on longer distance routes!
 

The Ham

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Looking at the track access rates for trains comes up with some interesting outcomes.

www.rail-reg.gov.uk/upload/pdf/cp4-pl-track_usage_181208.pdf

A 9 coach class 221 costs 108.81 pence per mile (9x12.09) whilst an 8+2 IC125 costs 108.6 pence per mile (2x28.18 plus 8x6.53) which makes the track access charges not a lot different.

However if you change it to a 9 coach class 222 it drops to 94.95 pence per mile and a 9 coach class 220 is lower still at 78.48 pence per mile.

Before anyone points out that there are no 9 coach variants of 22x's I know, I just thought it would be interesting to see how much one would cost compared to an IC125.

If you ran a 6 coach plus loco and DVT would work out at 77.96 pence per mile (using the second cheapest loco on the list - class 43) which is only a little cheaper than running a 9 coach 220, but with more seating (even if it was made up of a 4 coach set + 5 coach set coupled together), however move up to the third cheapest loco (class 73) and it goes up to 82.18 pence per mile.

Now I know that track access charges aren't a lot, but if you ran a 9 coach 222 rather than a 8+2 IC125 it is 13.65 pence per mile cheaper. Therefore if a train does 750 miles in a day 6 days a week 50 weeks of the year, then that is a £30,000 difference between the two.

It makes the suggestion of running doubled up 222's to Plymouth and then splitting them seam fairly good value in terms of track access charges as a 5 coach 222 would be 52.75 pence per mile compared to the IC125's (£86 cheaper on a return run between Plymouth and Penzance).
 

AndyLandy

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Looking at the track access rates for trains comes up with some interesting outcomes.

www.rail-reg.gov.uk/upload/pdf/cp4-pl-track_usage_181208.pdf

Good find, that makes interesting reading. I'm quite surprised to learn that HST power cars are comparitively cheap to run. I'll probably give that some further scrutiny, since access charges are often cited as reasons for MU vs. loco hauled. It'd be interesting to see how true the matter is.
 

jopsuk

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9-coach 222s have existed- and 9-car 221 and 220 formations as 4+5 (and even 5-221+4-220) are not unknown
 

RAGNARØKR

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Looking at the track access rates for trains comes up with some interesting outcomes.
Well done for digging out figures. Here's one you might try. As a lead, some of the information was gathered as part of the McNulty review and and the rolling stock statistics by Arup.

It would be worth putting together all the costs and making it into pie charts for a few typical cases.

Lease costs for rolling stock.
Capital costs for rolling stock (not the same thing as older types are fully amortised).
Energy costs.
Maintenance costs for rolling stock
Train staffing costs.
Track access charges with energy costs deducted.
Tax. Yes, the railway operation is heavily taxed. Network Rail pays UBR, and the staff costs incurred by TOCs include around 40% tax nominally paid by employees ie not in their take home pay.

The benefit of this exercise is that is show where savings can most usefully be made. I think it would be surprising and instructive, and you obviously have a talent for this.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Good find, that makes interesting reading. I'm quite surprised to learn that HST power cars are comparitively cheap to run. I'll probably give that some further scrutiny, since access charges are often cited as reasons for MU vs. loco hauled. It'd be interesting to see how true the matter is.
Presumably because of the low axle load of the class 43 and other reasons too such as the bogie track forces.
 

jimm

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AndyLandy said:
Quote:
Originally Posted by tbtc
Am sure the route could work with the same longer distance EMUs required for Liverpool - Newcastle (etc
Which, in an ideal world, would probably be an AC variant on the 444 (or a suitable equivalent from Bombardier or Alstom).

On that note, why do all the variants of Turbostar and Electrostar have 1/3; 2/3 doors? Surely there must be a market for the more Intercity type of accommodation with end doors and vestibules.

I really hope it's not a sign of the times that we're moving to more commuter-type trains on longer distance routes!

Thing is that in the West Yorkshire and Greater Manchester areas TransPennine services are a key part of the commuter services. It wasn't by accident that the 185s have 1/3+2/3 doors, rather than the end doors of the 158s previously used. Station dwell times with end doors on trains packed with commuters are not pretty - eg 442s on the Brighton line.

Same applies to most places that Turbostar and Electrostar variants are used. They aren't out-and-out long-distance in the main and most routes worked involve elements of commuter-type travel. The XC 170s were split out from a common Central Trains pool which worked both local and long-distance services from Birmingham New Street.
 

Eagle

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The XC 170s were split out from a common Central Trains pool which worked both local and long-distance services from Birmingham New Street.

And indeed still operate what might be considered local services, the Birmingham to Leicester and Nottingham stoppers.
 

AndyLandy

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Thing is that in the West Yorkshire and Greater Manchester areas TransPennine services are a key part of the commuter services. It wasn't by accident that the 185s have 1/3+2/3 doors, rather than the end doors of the 158s previously used. Station dwell times with end doors on trains packed with commuters are not pretty - eg 442s on the Brighton line.

It's a bit naff for Intercity travellers though. Whenever I'm travelling TPX, I'm normally going between Newcastle and Manchester, which isn't the sort of journey you want to do on commuter-style trains.
 

Goatboy

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It's a bit naff for Intercity travellers though. Whenever I'm travelling TPX, I'm normally going between Newcastle and Manchester, which isn't the sort of journey you want to do on commuter-style trains.

Better than a journey of the same or greater length on a 150 though, which happens constantly in the South West :(
 

RAGNARØKR

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Thing is that in the West Yorkshire and Greater Manchester areas TransPennine services are a key part of the commuter services. It wasn't by accident that the 185s have 1/3+2/3 doors, rather than the end doors of the 158s previously used. Station dwell times with end doors on trains packed with commuters are not pretty - eg 442s on the Brighton line.
This is repeated over and over again but all end door trains have smallish vestibules and a pinch point between the vestibule and the saloon. The 442s have a large gap at some concave platform faces because the doorways are at the extreme outer ends, in contrast to the 158s where the outer ends are occupied by toilets. All these factors add to station dwell time. There are too many other variables involved to enable conclusions to be drawn.

A proper comparison would be a train with a 1.8 metre wide vestible in the same position as on the class 158. Or a 20 metre long vehicle schematically like this diagram.

3247512762_932a13c897_m.jpg
 

jimm

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RAGNARØKR;1291210 said:
This is repeated over and over again but all end door trains have smallish vestibules and a pinch point between the vestibule and the saloon. The 442s have a large gap at some concave platform faces because the doorways are at the extreme outer ends, in contrast to the 158s where the outer ends are occupied by toilets. All these factors add to station dwell time. There are too many other variables involved to enable conclusions to be drawn.

A proper comparison would be a train with a 1.8 metre wide vestible in the same position as on the class 158. Or a 20 metre long vehicle schematically like this diagram.

3247512762_932a13c897_m.jpg

I will draw all the conclusions I like on the basis of many years standing on dead-straight platforms all over this country waiting for people to get off Mk3s before those of us on the platform can get on and move down the aisle to reach a seat, as against dwell times on services worked by MUs with 1/3 and 2/3 doors. You can have doors a mile wide at the end of coaches but that still doesn't solve the problem of aisles inside coaches that are one person wide - the pinchpoint doesn't end when you reach the passenger saloon.

And vestibules that size would take up seats aplenty, or you do a Chiltern Mk3 and lose lots of the toilets, which has caused a deal of comment in places, given the length of many journeys being undertaken on their loco-hauled sets. Hardly an acceptable state of affairs on other long-distance routes, I'd suggest.
 

The Ham

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RAGNARØKR;1291210 said:
This is repeated over and over again but all end door trains have smallish vestibules and a pinch point between the vestibule and the saloon. The 442s have a large gap at some concave platform faces because the doorways are at the extreme outer ends, in contrast to the 158s where the outer ends are occupied by toilets. All these factors add to station dwell time. There are too many other variables involved to enable conclusions to be drawn.

A proper comparison would be a train with a 1.8 metre wide vestible in the same position as on the class 158. Or a 20 metre long vehicle schematically like this diagram.

3247512762_932a13c897_m.jpg

So we'll do away with our 23m coaches, have a lovely new 20m coaches. However to maintain the number of seats per train we have to increase the length of the train by at least 20m (compared with a 8 coach IC125) which requires a massive rebuilding project at every station at which the new longer train calls at. Failing that the seating would have to change from 2+2 seating to 2+3 seating.

As a comparison the 20m class 450 (with 3+2 seating and 1/3 of a coach for first class) have an average 66 seats per coach, whilst the 23m class 444 (with 2+2 seating with 1 whole coach for first class) have an average of 66.8 seats per coach. There are of course other differences between the two, like the 444 has more cycle spaces (none of which take up seating space) which should mean that the number of seats would be lower.
 
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Now I know that track access charges aren't a lot, but if you ran a 9 coach 222 rather than a 8+2 IC125 it is 13.65 pence per mile cheaper. Therefore if a train does 750 miles in a day 6 days a week 50 weeks of the year, then that is a £30,000 difference between the two.

It makes the suggestion of running doubled up 222's to Plymouth and then splitting them seam fairly good value in terms of track access charges as a 5 coach 222 would be 52.75 pence per mile compared to the IC125's (£86 cheaper on a return run between Plymouth and Penzance).

A couple of problems beyond track access charges though:

2+8 HST (XC refurbished with all 8 vehicles in set) = 70 first class and 487 standard class seats (excluding tip-ups).
4+5 220/221 will provide 52 first class and 410 standard class seats and much less luggage space. - 25% less first and 16% less standard accomodation.

So - 9 car 220/1 does NOT equal 8 car HST. Even 2x5car 221s provide less seats than an 8 car HST.

The 9 car 222 has nine engines all drinking fuel and all requiring maintenance compared to 2 on the HST. Now admittedly the HST engines are bigger and more thirsty, and rule of thumb in the industry is 5xQSK19 = 2xMTU4000 for fuel usage and maintenance - so 45% extra costs there for 16% less seats.
 

HSTEd

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If you are going to run the entire formation to both ends of the route then you would simply take intermediate vehicles from other 221 sets to make the whole formation up to full length.

If you split them you would not have to run the entire formation over the full length of the route and the direct comparison is invalid.
 

Nym

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One does get the impression the whole point is moot as the HST fleet will be largely retired by 2019, likely to include all Mk3 based LHCS from widespread use on the network, aside from small batches of refurbishment and power door conversions.

The future of HSTs is, unfortunately, museums and scrappers...
 

jon91

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I think I'd still call it a railtour if it was a 125 doing the honours, rolling museum doesn't quite have a ring to it... <D
 

Andymccabe13

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the HST's maybe getting on a little now but I would still call it a premature death considering they have been well looked after and the excellent condition they are in. It was published by an official report that the majority of HST sets could easily manage to run till 2035!
 

The Ham

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the HST's maybe getting on a little now but I would still call it a premature death considering they have been well looked after and the excellent condition they are in. It was published by an official report that the majority of HST sets could easily manage to run till 2035!

This point has been covered before in this thread; basicly although the body work could keep going till then there are other items, which would be fairly costly to replace, which would need replacing long before then.
 

RAGNARØKR

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I will draw all the conclusions I like on the basis of many years standing on dead-straight platforms all over this country waiting for people to get off Mk3s before those of us on the platform can get on and move down the aisle to reach a seat, as against dwell times on services worked by MUs with 1/3 and 2/3 doors. You can have doors a mile wide at the end of coaches but that still doesn't solve the problem of aisles inside coaches that are one person wide - the pinchpoint doesn't end when you reach the passenger saloon.

And vestibules that size would take up seats aplenty, or you do a Chiltern Mk3 and lose lots of the toilets, which has caused a deal of comment in places, given the length of many journeys being undertaken on their loco-hauled sets. Hardly an acceptable state of affairs on other long-distance routes, I'd suggest.
The key here is to ask "where is the bottleneck"? Do you actually know? I would be surprised if the speed of moving down the aisle is a bottleneck in any vehicle with 2+2 seating. Mark 3 stock is not particularly easy to get on and off, due to the narrow step board. That is probably the bottleneck. Or it may be the existence of a pinch point inside the train, possibly between the vestibule and saloon. To establish the truth of the matter would require the kind of operational research project that was developed during WW2, covering issues such as the machine-man interface. Do you know of any study in relation to the mark 3 problem we are discussing?

Operational research and ergonometrics remained as widespread part of the design process until the late 1950s and then seem to have gone out of use in Britain, as stock such as the class 313 would never have been put into service in the form that it originally appeared. In Scandinavia, the discipline has developed, which is one reason why Scandinavian design is more generally satisfactory: design of the man-machine interface is a big subject at Chalmers Technical College, Gothenburg.

As regards the toilets, there is no necessity to locate them between the entrance vestibule and the saloon. They can go outside, as in the class 158, or in the centre of the vehicle, not an option if wheelchair access is required but a good position from a number of points of view especially in relation to issues like disposal of sewage and positioning of the retention tank.

1/3:2/3 has definite disadvantages from a structural point of view if the bodyshell is a monocoque. It requires large apertures in the bodyshell precisely where it is undesirable to have them. It also limits the options for seating layouts as the vehicle is divided into three compartments, two of them less than 4 metres in length.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
So we'll do away with our 23m coaches, have a lovely new 20m coaches.
You aren't reading, are you? I was referring to establishing loading and unloading speeds as a basis for comparison of the two configurations. And 20 metre vehicle stock is still being ordered for some routes, is it not?

How are you getting on with those pie charts showing all the different costs associated with railway operation? It would be really useful to have that information and you seem to have the patience needed to ferret out the information.
 
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Lewisham2221

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I would be surprised if the speed of moving down the aisle is a bottleneck in any vehicle with 2+2 seating.

I would say that the aisle is a very definite bottleneck. It may not be the only one, but it definitely is a problem.

 

tbtc

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RAGNARØKR;1292425 said:
As regards the toilets, there is no necessity to locate them between the entrance vestibule and the saloon. They can go outside

Trains with outside toilets, for Northeners? :lol:
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
the HST's maybe getting on a little now but I would still call it a premature death considering they have been well looked after and the excellent condition they are in. It was published by an official report that the majority of HST sets could easily manage to run till 2035!

This point has been covered before in this thread; basicly although the body work could keep going till then there are other items, which would be fairly costly to replace, which would need replacing long before then.

Yup - the "could last until 2035" quote seems to actually be "bits of them could last until 2035 if we throw enough money at them" (am sure if you spent enough money on Pacers you could say the same!). The question is, with most long distance/ main lines being electrified by the end of this decade and bi-mode IEP a reality by then, what routes would justify all of that investment in keeping HSTs going?
 

D365

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The future use of HST sets depends on where it is viable to keep them going. Which brings us back to the topic.
 

The Ham

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RAGNARØKR;1292425 said:
How are you getting on with those pie charts showing all the different costs associated with railway operation? It would be really useful to have that information and you seem to have the patience needed to ferret out the information.

From http://www.savethetrain.org.uk/melkshamrailway/41_What_does_it_cost_to_run_a_train.html

What have I learnt? By heresay, by mental arithemetic and more, I can draw you up a balance sheet for running a single coach train on (and dedicated to) the Westbury to Chippenham-or-Swindon route.

Hire of train 100,000 (one hundred thousand) pounds per year
Staffing 250,000 (quarter of a million) pounds per year
Track access charges and fuel 100,000 (one hundred thousand) pounds per year
Other costs - say 50,000 (fifty thousand) pounds per year.

From other places the hire of the train sounds about the right ball park (maybe now £110,000 but it makes the maths easier if it stays at the above figure), likewise so does the track access charges, so I'll take the staffing costs as a fair figure too.

That then means that 20% is leasing cost, 50% is staffing costs, 20% is track access charges with 10% for other costs for a pacer.

Without knowing figures for other trains I would have thought that the staffing costs would have stayed the same (given you still only have one driver and one guard until you add a buffet service), whilst other costs (track access charges for instance) increase as you add more coaches. That would mean that as the train gets longer the staffing costs as a percentage fall, whilst the leasing and track access charges rise.

For instance going back to the IC125 track access charges I listed above the annual track access charges rise to about £250,000. If the lease rises to a similar amount then the three main expenditure items all equal about 32%.

Although according to the ATOC (note this is not per train, rather per £1 of income that a TOC receives, probably also averaged out over all of them):
http://www.atoc.org/media-centre/latest-press-releases/rail-fares-for-2012-now-available-100651

Where does the money go?

For every pound of income that train companies receive:
48p goes to Network Rail (which charges operators to run trains on the tracks) and other infrastructure costs
17p goes on staff costs
17p goes on miscellaneous costs (including train maintenance, administration, contractors)
11p goes on leasing trains
4p goes on fuel / energy
3p goes to train company profit
 

tbtc

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The future use of HST sets depends on where it is viable to keep them going. Which brings us back to the topic.

Which is where though?

By the end of the decade they won't be needed on wholly electrified routes (inc London - Bristol, Swansea, Oxford, Sheffield, Nottingham)...

...they won't be needed on mainly electrified routes (like London = Harrogate) due to bi-mode IEP...

...so there's basically no inter-city services that would require them apart from XC (who'd have to slow their routes down to accommodate them compared to the Voyagers)...

...they are too sluggish at stopping/starting to be cascaded to some "provincial" DMU routes like Birmingham - Stansted or Nottingham - Cardiff...

...you'll need a handful for the London - Penzance services but there are about a hundred HST sets so that would only take a small number.

So whilst bits of them may physically last for another couple of decades (with enough maintenance), there won't be so much need for them.
 

HSTEd

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About teh only thing I can think of for large numbers of sets is the spiritual successor to the old Class 20 hauled Mark 1 one rakes.

But maintaining a large fleet and traction knowledge on numerous drivers just for excursion trains is probably a non starter these days....
 

D365

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Exactly, where will they be needed? Will be plenty to choose from for my 43 + Mk3/4 + 91 set though, after all, more sets are in service now then at any other time :D
 
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