Which lines would have the least strong case for electrification?

[northwichcat]

I'd like to see it wired, don't get me wrong. But you do raise an interesting point about diversionary routes - I see a few lines recommended for electrification because of their diversionary use - even ones with no regular passenger use (like Castleford - York) - how do you do the trade off though?

#toughdecision

I think with a privatised railway the importance of wiring diversionary routes partly depend on the franchise and rolling stock organisation.

Imagine in 2020 we have a TPE franchise that have all electric stock and run the following routes:
* Manchester Airport and Liverpool to Scotland.
* Liverpool to Newcastle via Chat Moss (1/2 hourly)
* Manchester Airport to York (1/2 hourly)
* Manchester to Leeds semi-fast (1/2 hourly)
* Manchester Airport to Blackpool (and maybe Liverpool to Blackpool)

That would cause problems every time a route is closed as it wouldn't allow diversions via Warrington, Halifax, Wakefield etc. and would likely see the operator being like Virgin are at present and insisting on having some DMUs or DEMUs to use on fully electrified routes to ensure they are covered when lines are closed.

If on the other hand services like Calder Vale form part of the same franchise then there's more flexibility for the operator to cover line closures.

 

[Shimbleshanks]

Going back to the original query, Llandudno Junction to Blaenau Ffestiniog would seem an unlikely candidate for electrification. The OLE would also be an unwelcome addition to the landscape.

Unless of course battery electric ever becomes a viable proposition. There was a rather similar line up in Scotland that used battery versions of the first-generation DMUs, I think.

I remember reading in LTC Rolt's 'Railway Adventure' that in the early days of the Talyllyn preservation scheme, quite serious thought was given to electrifying a portion of the line, using hydroelectric power.

 

[172212]

Probably the Snow Hill Line - the Worcester side

 

[MidnightFlyer]

I would have thought the Snow Hill line either side of Brum would have a very strong case as it has one of the intensest diesel services (6tph each way) in Europe.

 

[AndyLandy]

I would have thought the Snow Hill line either side of Brum would have a very strong case as it has one of the intensest diesel services (6tph each way) in Europe.

There's an interesting question there.

Hundreds of miles of Intercity route? Or lots and lots of inner suburban routes around major cities?

I understand that London Midland have a lot of DMUs for providing local and regional services in the Birmingham region (Centro). Northern have an absolute mountain of DMUs running all kinds of weird and wonderful places. Are there decent electrification cases for these areas? How do they compare to Intercity electrification? (I assume not favourably, since we aren't doing it, but I thought it was worth raising the point)

 

[tbtc]

I think with a privatised railway the importance of wiring diversionary routes partly depend on the franchise and rolling stock organisation.

Imagine in 2020 we have a TPE franchise that have all electric stock and run the following routes:
* Manchester Airport and Liverpool to Scotland.
* Liverpool to Newcastle via Chat Moss (1/2 hourly)
* Manchester Airport to York (1/2 hourly)
* Manchester to Leeds semi-fast (1/2 hourly)
* Manchester Airport to Blackpool (and maybe Liverpool to Blackpool)

That would cause problems every time a route is closed as it wouldn't allow diversions via Warrington, Halifax, Wakefield etc. and would likely see the operator being like Virgin are at present and insisting on having some DMUs or DEMUs to use on fully electrified routes to ensure they are covered when lines are closed.

If on the other hand services like Calder Vale form part of the same franchise then there's more flexibility for the operator to cover line closures.

I can see the logic in this, but then you'd need to electrify the Peterborough - Lincoln - Doncaster line to cope with any problems on the ECML through Grantham (plus the Ely - Peterborough line and the Tyne Valley line etc).

Almost everything is a diversionary route for something else.

The MML electrification won't see the Erewash Valley line wired, despite it being a regular alternative route for EMT and MML services from Leeds/ Sheffield to Derby. Similarly, the Chesterfield - Woodhouse - Sheffield line isn't being done. But if we electrify lines with no regular passenger service we do so at the opportunity cost of wiring lines where we could actually replace DMUs.

 

[Ivo]

I reckon Sudbury might be worth doing, even if only for practice, because it's a bit of a long ECS haul to Crown Point, and this might make it easier to introduce the odd train to Colchester.

I was going to suggest the Sudbury line as a good contender for a weak case... but realised it could actually make sense!

I would have thought Sudbury has one of the strongest cases out there, especially among routes that are 1tph or less? Yes, OK, it's not exactly the busiest line, but it's an awkward island that is a good 30 miles by rail from any other diesel service. Plus the service could be extended to Walton-on-the-Naze or Harwich if it was ever electrified.

If I was bidding for the long-term Anglia franchise when it comes along again, I would include funding it as part of my bid.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I can't see electric trains going to Gunnislake or Looe any time soon!

You are correct. However, once they get to Bristol, Exeter may follow by about 2030. I could then see a case through to Newquay by say 2035? then Penzance by 2040. At that time it would make sense to electrify these outposts of diesel workings. So 2045 would be a sensible (IMHO) guess.

 

[AndyLandy]

You are correct. However, once they get to Bristol, Exeter may follow by about 2030. I could then see a case through to Newquay by say 2035? then Penzance by 2040. At that time it would make sense to electrify these outposts of diesel workings. So 2045 would be a sensible (IMHO) guess.

Oops, I thought those were 24-hour clock times for a moment!

Exeter at 2030
Newquay 2035
Penzance 2040

I'd be delighted if we could run a service that takes ten minutes to get from Exeter to Penzance via Newquay.

 

[Temple Meads]

I can't see electric trains going to Gunnislake or Looe any time soon!

My immediate thought too, it really is a funny proposition

 

[Welshman]

Unless of course battery electric ever becomes a viable proposition. There was a rather similar line up in Scotland that used battery versions of the first-generation DMUs, I think.

I remember reading in LTC Rolt's 'Railway Adventure' that in the early days of the Talyllyn preservation scheme, quite serious thought was given to electrifying a portion of the line, using hydroelectric power.

Yes, a battery-powered version of the 1st Gen. "Derby Lightweight" dmu was trialled on the Ballater line from 1958-1962. I read it carried about 13 tons of batteries!

Certainly the Blaenau branch would be a problem if the Manchester/Chester - North Wales lines are electrified.

 

[Tomonthetrain]

There's an interesting question there.

Hundreds of miles of Intercity route? Or lots and lots of inner suburban routes around major cities?

I understand that London Midland have a lot of DMUs for providing local and regional services in the Birmingham region (Centro). Northern have an absolute mountain of DMUs running all kinds of weird and wonderful places. Are there decent electrification cases for these areas? How do they compare to Intercity electrification? (I assume not favourably, since we aren't doing it, but I thought it was worth raising the point)

Would it strengthen the business case to have a electrified Snow Hill lines and Lickey Incline if the Chiltern Main Line was electrified along with Camp Hill and the proposed Electric Spine. Thinking about it, if Chiltern went electric, then down to Stourbridge at least would have to be because of the LMD that CR already have. Just think, class 90s to Stourbridge?

 

[Ivo]

Unless something dramatic changes there is no way Newquay will be done before the rest of the Cornish Main Line west of Par. I am not sure whether Gunnislake or Looe has a better case for wiring - it depends partly on the continued long-distance stuff to Newquay - but it is miles behind Falmouth and St Ives.

And Penzance of course.

 

[Jonny]

Yes, a battery-powered version of the 1st Gen. "Derby Lightweight" dmu was trialled on the Ballater line from 1958-1962. I read it carried about 13 tons of batteries!

Certainly the Blaenau branch would be a problem if the Manchester/Chester - North Wales lines are electrified.

Mind you, the latest batteries have a much higher "energy density" than those available in first-gen DMU days. The only trouble is that some batteries may be explosive if shorted (lithium ion, as used in most laptops/'phones/etc...) although modern electronic engineering can reduce this risk to almost infinitely small.

 

[LE Greys]

Would it strengthen the business case to have a electrified Snow Hill lines and Lickey Incline if the Chiltern Main Line was electrified along with Camp Hill and the proposed Electric Spine. Thinking about it, if Chiltern went electric, then down to Stourbridge at least would have to be because of the LMD that CR already have. Just think, class 90s to Stourbridge?

Definitely! There are a few problems with Chiltern, the Metropolitan being the biggest, but I reckon it's a quick win, considering it's a diesel suburban network with some intensive services, and practically self-contained.

An electric banker for the Lickey sounds like an interesting idea...

 

[Tomonthetrain]

Definitely! There are a few problems with Chiltern, the Metropolitan being the biggest, but I reckon it's a quick win, considering it's a diesel suburban network with some intensive services, and practically self-contained.

An electric banker for the Lickey sounds like an interesting idea...

Transfer the Aylesbury services to the Met then, having fast/all stations trains, you've solved one problem by not having to run ACservices along with 4th rail services. Have a class 139 style operation on the branch and then bobs your uncle, one AC Chiltern network.

 

[MidnightFlyer]

What about future East-West rail services from Aylesbury and potentially Marylebone, which I would hope has a quite high chance of being electrified overhead?

 

[Eagle]

What about future East-West rail services from Aylesbury and potentially Marylebone, which I would hope has a quite high chance of being electrified overhead?

Current plans are that the Marylebone–Wycombe–Aylesbury–MKC service would remain diesel, but I can't see any point in not eventually electrifying it other than it might be Chiltern's only electric service if the rest of EWR goes to FGW or LM (which it still might).

 

[Tomonthetrain]

But if we convert the mainline to AC then Chiltern need not require any diesels

 

[Eagle]

But if we convert the mainline to AC then Chiltern need not require any diesels

Indeed. I'm pretty sure that now we're extending Aylesbury to an electrified line, and the Oxford/Bicester/Banbury/Leamington triangle will be electric, it makes huge sense to do the rest of the Chiltern and Snow Hill lines in one large go.

And then we'd hopefully free up quite a large number of suburban and interurban DMUs for cascading elsewhere.

 

[Trainfan344]

Would it strengthen the business case to have a electrified Snow Hill lines and Lickey Incline if the Chiltern Main Line was electrified along with Camp Hill and the proposed Electric Spine. Thinking about it, if Chiltern went electric, then down to Stourbridge at least would have to be because of the LMD that CR already have. Just think, class 90s to Stourbridge?

I'm just thinking of Ivo's face when he turns up expecting a class 90 to find a class 323...

 

[Ivo]

I'm just thinking of Ivo's face when he turns up expecting a class 90 to find a class 323...

Watch it you

Seriously though, the Snow Hill lines must have pretty much the best case in the entire country now, not including lines already declared. The only problem is the erratic set of destinations; would the service have to be trimmed at the ends?

 

[Eagle]

Seriously though, the Snow Hill lines must have pretty much the best case in the entire country now, not including lines already declared.

I'd say Gospel Oak to Barking puts it in very narrow second, but only because it's quite a bit shorter :P

 

[172212]

I would have thought the Snow Hill line either side of Brum would have a very strong case as it has one of the intensest diesel services (6tph each way) in Europe.

LM have just brought new rolling stock for the Snow Hill Lines, however, there is a strong case for the Chiltern Mainline to be electrified.

 

[Eagle]

LM have just brought new rolling stock for the Snow Hill Lines...

So? That can go elsewhere.

 

[Nym]

So? That can go elsewhere.

It comes under the 'wider benefits' section of the BCR that comes from new rolling stock...

For example, if the Snow Hill Lines had pacers or sprinters still, the BCR would be higher, this is also why the Chiltern lines have relatively low BCRs as there is already reasonably high quality rolling stock on the route.

 

[Failed Unit]

It comes under the 'wider benefits' section of the BCR that comes from new rolling stock...

For example, if the Snow Hill Lines had pacers or sprinters still, the BCR would be higher, this is also why the Chiltern lines have relatively low BCRs as there is already reasonably high quality rolling stock on the route.

Still don't follow your logic here, cascade the 172s to lines with pacers and everyone is a winner.

 

[Tomonthetrain]

Still don't follow your logic here, cascade the 172s to lines with pacers and everyone is a winner.

Exactly, transfer 323s and the 172s to Northern for their new electric services and Pacer replacement, give LM 380s to add to existing 350s, then include Snow Hill in the CML franchise and have 379s (or similar) working stoppers and SemiFast services and DB class 90s or even 92s running the fast services. Run this service pattern with Witlocks end and Doridge splitting at Moor Street and the existing Doridges to replace with the existing London services. Could that work?

 

[anthony263]

Exactly, transfer 323s and the 172s to Northern for their new electric services and Pacer replacement, give LM 380s to add to existing 350s, then include Snow Hill in the CML franchise and have 379s (or similar) working stoppers and SemiFast services and DB class 90s or even 92s running the fast services. Run this service pattern with Witlocks end and Doridge splitting at Moor Street and the existing Doridges to replace with the existing London services. Could that work?

I would personally like to see the class 323's being casaded to work the Cardiff Valley lines especially since the 3 carriage units would be better than the class 315's for certain routes and can work in pairs at peak times.

 

[Nym]

Still don't follow your logic here, cascade the 172s to lines with pacers and everyone is a winner.

Isn't my logic, it's the DfT's logic when they assess the benifits of electrification to include new rolling stock, it doesn't take into account external cascades.