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Which lines would have the least strong case for electrification?

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northwichcat

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As the thread title says - which lines would have the least strong case for electrification?

Let's only consider passenger lines with a proper service.

I'm thinking the least strong case would mean:
* Basic service.
* No freight.
* Not a diversionary route for other services.
* Isn't a diesel spur off an electrified route or a route with a strong case for electrification.
 
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philjo

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Whitby
Cambrian Coast north of Dovey Junction (though possibly a case for Shrewsbury-Aberystwyth eventually)
West Highland Line
Lines north of Inverness
 
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D2022

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The line from Thingley Jct. through Melksham to Trowbridge. Don't know its real name but its only about 2 trains a day.
 

starrymarkb

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The line from Thingley Jct. through Melksham to Trowbridge. Don't know its real name but its only about 2 trains a day.

That has a fairly high chance actually, most winter weekends it sees heavy use by diverted HSTs if there is a block on the B&H or GWML. For the short distance (~10 miles single track) it wouldn't cost that much as part of a larger scheme (ie Westbury to Bath)
 

Zoe

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Don't know its real name but its only about 2 trains a day.
The Engineeer's Line Reference is WEY and this stands for Weymoth Line. This actually continues beyond Trowbridge via Westbury, Frome and Castle Cary to Dorchester. It was the GWR route to Weymouth.
 

Ivo

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The lines to Stranraer, Sheringham, Pembroke Dock et al and Fort William, as well as numerous others already mentioned, stand out for me. I get the impression that Lancaster to Morecambe may be on the horizon (CP6 possibly), but to Heysham would depend on freight - if it isn't adequate, that stretch would certainly be a candidate for this thread.

Having said all of this though, only two of these really match the criteria of "proper service".

The line from Thingley Jct. through Melksham to Trowbridge. Don't know its real name but its only about 2 trains a day.

What starrymarkb said - it has a genuine chance in the longer run, much like Pontefract Baghill potentially could. Not to mention that there is a genuine local ambition to give the line an improved service (I should be meeting one of the main orchestrators of this next week).
 

AndyLandy

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The Mid-Cheshire railway. That'll be expensive to wire since it's quite long, mostly double-tracked and has a fair amount of low bridges over it and would only free up maybe half-a-dozen DMUs.
 

Robinson

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Tyne Valley
Leeds-Goole via Knottingley
Scarborough-Hull
Barton-on-Humber branch

Any of them more likely than I imagine to see electrification on the cards?
 

northwichcat

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The Mid-Cheshire railway. That'll be expensive to wire since it's quite long, mostly double-tracked and has a fair amount of low bridges over it and would only free up maybe half-a-dozen DMUs.

Actually I don't agree for a number of reasons:
* The line is a diversionary route for Manchester-North Wales services and London-North Wales services, both of which have electrification potential.
* The off-peak service frequency may be increased in the next few years.
* The possibly of reopening the Middlewich branch to regular passenger traffic remains.
* The only reason the Buxton line isn't being considered for wiring is the low off-peak frequency. If that increases and gets electrified then there's potential for the freight between Derbyshire and Cheshire to switch to electric traction if the Mid-Cheshire line was done.

However, the biggie could be Network Rail said they will review extending the Airport spur to the Mid-Cheshire line in 2019-2024. If that goes ahead and the North Wales coast is electrified, then it would be a no-brainier to electrify the Mid-Cheshire line.
 

D2022

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The lines to Stranraer, Sheringham, Pembroke Dock et al and Fort William, as well as numerous others already mentioned, stand out for me. I get the impression that Lancaster to Morecambe may be on the horizon (CP6 possibly), but to Heysham would depend on freight - if it isn't adequate, that stretch would certainly be a candidate for this thread.

Having said all of this though, only two of these really match the criteria of "proper service".



What starrymarkb said - it has a genuine chance in the longer run, much like Pontefract Baghill potentially could. Not to mention that there is a genuine local ambition to give the line an improved service (I should be meeting one of the main orchestrators of this next week).

Thats good to hear then, I do the SWI to WSB more or less every day via BTH and a more direct service would be great.

On the Stranraer note, I got speaking to a Network Rail chap at the town station a while back who said off the record NR would like to see the town station reinstated and the Harbour one closed and demolished when the Stena terminal is closed and moved up to Cairnryan...well the terminal is closed now...I noticed in January Network Rail actually installed a portacabin on the town site with some ariels and a few other little things were done, like greasing the points...so think there is any truth in what the bloke said? Every single time I've visited the town site there have been Network Rail vans there...
 

tbtc

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Ignoring the lines with only a few trains a day (Far North, Heart Of Wales, Heysham, Knottingley - Goole, lines that only see diversionary services etc), I'd suggest that somewhere with a messy service pattern may struggle to justify wiring.

For example, if you assume that anywhere with a self contained half hourly service should have a good case for electrification, there are still some routes that see a fairly frequent core service that has some irregular/ infrequent "branches" to it.

An example of that is the Calder Valley line. Plenty of DMUs each hour (four an hour from Leeds to Halifax via Bradford, four an hour on the section from Rochdale to Manchester) but the muddle of routes means that if you don't wire all of the lines then you don't get the full benefit of electrification. i.e. wire the main line from Leeds to Manchester via Todmorden and you free up some DMUs, but not the Mirfield - Brighouse - Todmorden line or the Halifax - Brighouse - Huddersfield line or the line from Todmorden to Burnley or the other side of the Tod chord...

...you'd need to either wire a few bits of track that don't have such a frequent service or cut links in order to justify electrification. So although it has a lot of trains, it may have a poorer business case to electrify than some less frequent routes.

Plus, places that see fairly extreme weather - would the Settle & Carlisle require specialist equipment to deal with the harsh Dent winters?
 

bluenoxid

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I have seen a suggestion on the Northern Railways forum that threw the Blackpool service through Dewsbury.

Tbh, the split of the Grand Tour service will make Calder Valley electrification easier.
 

tbtc

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I have seen a suggestion on the Northern Railways forum that threw the Blackpool service through Dewsbury.

Tbh, the split of the Grand Tour service will make Calder Valley electrification easier.

Running the Blackpool service that way would improve the case for electrification - I agree about chopping up the Grand Tour (which will hopefully happen once the Selby line is electrified)
 

AndyLandy

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Actually I don't agree for a number of reasons:
* The line is a diversionary route for Manchester-North Wales services and London-North Wales services, both of which have electrification potential.
* The off-peak service frequency may be increased in the next few years.
* The possibly of reopening the Middlewich branch to regular passenger traffic remains.
* The only reason the Buxton line isn't being considered for wiring is the low off-peak frequency. If that increases and gets electrified then there's potential for the freight between Derbyshire and Cheshire to switch to electric traction if the Mid-Cheshire line was done.

However, the biggie could be Network Rail said they will review extending the Airport spur to the Mid-Cheshire line in 2019-2024. If that goes ahead and the North Wales coast is electrified, then it would be a no-brainier to electrify the Mid-Cheshire line.

Blimey! I've never really looked at that line as anything other than a rural backwater service. There are some suggestions you've mentioned there that I would very much like to see happen.

I've also wondered about whether there's any advantage in a full junction at Hartford so WCML services could use the line to Chester. In particular, if the existing Crewe-Chester line is a menace to electrify, routeing through the MCR instead might be a neat solution.
 

northwichcat

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Blimey! I've never really looked at that line as anything other than a rural backwater service.

When the Beeching Report was done the Mid-Cheshire line was seen as the most viable line between Manchester-Chester and Warrington-Chester was seen as a possible phase 2 closure.

The closure of the Altrincham-Sale-Deansgate line for conversion to Metrolink increased the journey time for Manchester-Altrincham-Chester rail services so made the line less attractive. It also meant a smaller proportion was electrified (Altrincham-Deansgate used to have AC OHEs) and the amount of single track sections increased.

I've also wondered about whether there's any advantage in a full junction at Hartford so WCML services could use the line to Chester. In particular, if the existing Crewe-Chester line is a menace to electrify, routeing through the MCR instead might be a neat solution.

This came up in another thread and the general opinion seemed to be that Weaver Vale Junction is complicated enough already.
 

tbtc

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Actually I don't agree for a number of reasons:
* The line is a diversionary route for Manchester-North Wales services and London-North Wales services, both of which have electrification potential.
* The off-peak service frequency may be increased in the next few years.
* The possibly of reopening the Middlewich branch to regular passenger traffic remains.
* The only reason the Buxton line isn't being considered for wiring is the low off-peak frequency

I thought that there were plenty of services with just one train an hour getting electrified in CP5 (Ebbw Vale, Chase Line etc), so I'm not sure that the hourly off-peak Buxton service was denied electrification on those grounds alone?

Electrification of the North Wales line etc would be great, but that's probably going to be at least a decade away.

Is there really scope to increase the frequency of the Altricham line? I thought that there were capacity problems over the Stockport viaduct?
 

northwichcat

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Electrification of the North Wales line etc would be great, but that's probably going to be at least a decade away.

Yes. I'm not trying to say there is a case for electrifying the Mid-Cheshire line at present on the North Wales basis, just arguing that if other things happen it might be given some consideration in the say 2024-2029 CP, which doesn't render it as one of the least likely lines to be electrified, even though there's a poor case at present.

Is there really scope to increase the frequency of the Altricham line? I thought that there were capacity problems over the Stockport viaduct?

The proposal is for an hourly Greenbank-Stockport service to give the busiest section of the line a half-hourly off-peak service.
 

tbtc

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The proposal is for an hourly Greenbank-Stockport service to give the busiest section of the line a half-hourly off-peak service.

I guess that's another criteria for "lines with a poor case for electrification" - I saw it said many times that some of the Valley Lines had a poor case because of the frequency at the head of the valleys only being hourly (despite the frequencies at the Cardiff end of the routes being "turn up and go").

There are probably a few others like this - I've seen the same said of the Harrogate line (where Leeds - Horsforth could sustain a frequent service, but Harrogate - York will never require more than one train an hour).

A few months ago I'd have said that the same problem existed on the Wigan Wallgate lines (with Kirkby getting just one train an hour), but the decision to make that a stand alone shuttle in the future should improve the case for wiring the rest of the line.
 

IanXC

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There are probably a few others like this - I've seen the same said of the Harrogate line (where Leeds - Horsforth could sustain a frequent service, but Harrogate - York will never require more than one train an hour).

I'm not so sure about that! 4 car trains can be 90% loaded in the peaks. Some of the services diagrammed 2 cars can be standing room only at the York end.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Scarborough-Hull

Any of them more likely than I imagine to see electrification on the cards?

As far as Bridlington there is a half hourly service on this line, so adding in that a good portion of services are through to Sheffield or Doncaster - don't think its impossibly unlikely. Although don't get me wrong its probably a couple of decades away!
 

Ploughman

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Any of them more likely than I imagine to see electrification on the cards?

3 of them yes, but not the Tyne Valley Newcastle - Carlisle.
Too important a link between East and West as a divert route.
Some heavy freight as well.
 

tbtc

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I'm not so sure about that! 4 car trains can be 90% loaded in the peaks. Some of the services diagrammed 2 cars can be standing room only at the York end.

As someone who used to commute from Horsforth, I can totally agree to how busy the services are, but the unbalanced frequency on lines like the Harrogate loop may make them poorer for electrification.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see my old line wired, but a line with just an hourly frequency (at one end) makes it a harder case to justify.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
3 of them yes, but not the Tyne Valley Newcastle - Carlisle.
Too important a link between East and West as a divert route.
Some heavy freight as well.

The Tyne Valley route is another example of what I was trying to talk about - four trains an hour to the Metro Centre, two trains an hour to Hexham and only one train an hour to Carlisle.

Does the frequent service at the eastern end make up for the hourly service west of Hexham (in terms of the business case)?
 

ainsworth74

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Does the frequent service at the eastern end make up for the hourly service west of Hexham (in terms of the business case)?

When coupled with the freight traffic and it's importance as a diversionary route I think so. It would be far far easier for East Cast if they could just send the 225s via Carlisle without having to resort to drags or only using HSTs.
 

tbtc

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When coupled with the freight traffic and it's importance as a diversionary route I think so. It would be far far easier for East Cast if they could just send the 225s via Carlisle without having to resort to drags or only using HSTs.

I'd like to see it wired, don't get me wrong. But you do raise an interesting point about diversionary routes - I see a few lines recommended for electrification because of their diversionary use - even ones with no regular passenger use (like Castleford - York) - how do you do the trade off though?

#toughdecision
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
(the other problem with the Tyne Valley line is that you can't easily electrify the Durham Coast line at the moment because of the T&W Metro, so do you cut off the direct link from Sunderland etc to the Metro Centre?)
 

ainsworth74

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how do you do the trade off though?

I would argue that a diversionary route that has passenger traffic should take priority over diversionary routes where there is little passenger benefit. But it is as you say:

#toughdecision

(the other problem with the Tyne Valley line is that you can't easily electrify the Durham Coast line at the moment because of the T&W Metro, so do you cut off the direct link from Sunderland etc to the Metro Centre?)

I think the only good solution is dual-voltage heavy rail stock so it can use the T&W Metro wires between Sunderland and Newcastle (well the junction where the two split anyway) and then normal 25kV AC on the rest of the route. But there are, of course, other solutions (such as just axing the link).
 

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(the other problem with the Tyne Valley line is that you can't easily electrify the Durham Coast line at the moment because of the T&W Metro, so do you cut off the direct link from Sunderland etc to the Metro Centre?)

No, you would change Sunderland's wires to AC and start ordering dual-voltage stock for the TWM. Current stock will be life-expired in about ten years or so, so it's the same timescale.
 

AndyLandy

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No, you would change Sunderland's wires to AC and start ordering dual-voltage stock for the TWM. Current stock will be life-expired in about ten years or so, so it's the same timescale.

In an ideal world, you'd convert the TWM fully over to 25kV AC, but I'm not sure how viable that would actually be...
 

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Going back to the original query, Llandudno Junction to Blaenau Ffestiniog would seem an unlikely candidate for electrification. The OLE would also be an unwelcome addition to the landscape.
 

LE Greys

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The Norfolk branches as well, although I reckon Sudbury might be worth doing, even if only for practice, because it's a bit of a long ECS haul to Crown Point, and this might make it easier to introduce the odd train to Colchester.
 

causton

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The Norfolk branches as well, although I reckon Sudbury might be worth doing, even if only for practice, because it's a bit of a long ECS haul to Crown Point, and this might make it easier to introduce the odd train to Colchester.

I was going to suggest the Sudbury line as a good contender for a weak case... but realised it could actually make sense!
 
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