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On the All-Wales Express

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Michael.Y

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To be fair a lot of it is needless futile speculation which is either wide of the mark and/or wildly imaginative based on a number of whatifs and variables which no-one can ascertain with any semblance of certainty.

For my part, I am not confident enough to disclose anything as fact at this stage, however I will say that the "wait and see" approach is best, given that I am led to understand that there may be some developments on this well-wrought front soon.

Until such time as these developments occur, there is little to be gained from attempting to predict with any confidence something which may (or yet may not) happen.
 

anthony263

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Had 67001 pass through platform 3 this evening at 16:17 heading to Canton hauling a BR liveried mk3 buffet. I noticed one of the refurbished mk3's was also sitting outside the shed in the pulman depot.
 

PHILIPE

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I believe that from September, the 16 15 Cardiff to Chester (in lieu of WAG) will start from Swansea as the present 15 10 Swanline and 175 worked. Let's just wait and see what happens in view of the alterations still waiting validation from Network Rail.
 

anthony263

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Well if the 15:10 is extended to chester that would be excellent besides the class 175's can easily keep to the tight timings on the swanline services (unlike the class 153's)
 

jones_bangor

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I believe that from September, the 16 15 Cardiff to Chester (in lieu of WAG) will start from Swansea as the present 15 10 Swanline and 175 worked. Let's just wait and see what happens in view of the alterations still waiting validation from Network Rail.

I understand now that the 16:15 will become the 16:21 Cardiff to Chester.

It does not appear that any LHCS will operate outside the Premier / Premium service.
 

Michael.Y

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That's not what I've heard, but again, until it's confirmed, I'd say wait and see.
 

merlodlliw

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I believe that from September, the 16 15 Cardiff to Chester (in lieu of WAG) will start from Swansea as the present 15 10 Swanline and 175 worked. Let's just wait and see what happens in view of the alterations still waiting validation from Network Rail.

This service has to run to Abergavenny as Gerald took its place,if it is a 175 then it will end up at Chester garage for service, my understanding is,between Salop & Crewe it will replace a local, then replace an half hourly to Chester. When Gerald started ATW cleverly dropped a return Abvergavenny to Cardiff around 1700 hours.
The problem with paths is between Wrexham & Salop I am told.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
I understand now that the 16:15 will become the 16:21 Cardiff to Chester.

It does not appear that any LHCS will operate outside the Premier / Premium service.

I have not heard anything of extra LHCS services, now called" enhanced service"



A lot of fog is being put out for December, but who will pay to run the extra LHCS trains, ATW wont Mike Bagshaw said this in Parliament to the Welsh Select Committee this week.[/QUOTE] also another interesting quote from him

Mike Bagshaw: On our cross-border services, we have been seeing very strong growth, typically between 8% and 13% over the years of the franchise. Cross-border services are probably seeing the strongest growth across the Arriva Trains Wales network. The key routes are north Wales to Manchester, mid-Wales to Birmingham, and Cardiff to Manchester. We have been seeing very strong growth, particularly on the long-distance flows over the last few years.
 
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Rhydgaled

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I have not heard anything of extra LHCS services, now called" enhanced service"
There is possibly a different interpretation of 'enhanced'. While it could mean the 'Premier' service is being downgraded to an 'enhanced' service, as you suggest, they could have been saying that the existing 'Premier' service would be enhanced (as in: "the Premier service will be improved", by using newer rolling stock (mark3s)).

A lot of fog is being put out for December, but who will pay to run the extra LHCS trains, ATW wont Mike Bagshaw said this in Parliament to the Welsh Select Committee this week. also another interesting quote from him

Mike Bagshaw: On our cross-border services, we have been seeing very strong growth, typically between 8% and 13% over the years of the franchise. Cross-border services are probably seeing the strongest growth across the Arriva Trains Wales network. The key routes are north Wales to Manchester, mid-Wales to Birmingham, and Cardiff to Manchester. We have been seeing very strong growth, particularly on the long-distance flows over the last few years.
Maybe the passenger growth is generating enough revenue to pay for longer trains (LHCS). On that front, if we do see any LHCS it is likely to be on Manchester services (either from north Wales or South East Wales). I wonder if the demand pattern means some of the Cardiff - Holyhead 175 services could be terminated at Chester, with connection into Manchester - Holyhead services?

On a different note, something I would really like to suggest if only ATW consulted publicly on their timetable is an express Cardiff to Carmarthen service via the Swansea District Line at 17:54, calling at Bridgend, Port Talbot Parkway and Llanelli only, to give passengers for south-west Wales the option of avoiding the overcrowded 17:39 service. Using the SDL means it would overtake the 17:39 so passengers for Milford and Fishguard could both use the 17:54 to reach Carmarthen and board the 17:39 there. Even better would be for the 17:54 to wait at Carmarthen and continue to Fishguard behind the 17:39 to eliminate the evening changes to/from Fishguard at Clarbeston Road (or the 17:39 could be diverted to Fishguard and the 17:54 would carry on to Milford instead).
 

anthony263

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That 17:54 express service you are proposing sound ok yet I have seen the FGW hst to Swansea leave about 3 minutes late so ideally yout proposal shoud leave Cardiff about 1-3 minutes later so that it isnt sklowed down by the HST in front.
 

merlodlliw

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There is possibly a different interpretation of 'enhanced'. While it could mean the 'Premier' service is being downgraded to an 'enhanced' service, as you suggest, they could have been saying that the existing 'Premier' service would be enhanced (as in: "the Premier service will be improved", by using newer rolling stock (mark3s)).

Maybe the passenger growth is generating enough revenue to pay for longer trains (LHCS). On that front, if we do see any LHCS it is likely to be on Manchester services (either from north Wales or South East Wales). I wonder if the demand pattern means some of the Cardiff - Holyhead 175 services could be terminated at Chester, with connection into Manchester - Holyhead services?

On a different note, something I would really like to suggest if only ATW consulted publicly on their timetable is an express Cardiff to Carmarthen service via the Swansea District Line at 17:54, calling at Bridgend, Port Talbot Parkway and Llanelli only, to give passengers for south-west Wales the option of avoiding the overcrowded 17:39 service. Using the SDL means it would overtake the 17:39 so passengers for Milford and Fishguard could both use the 17:54 to reach Carmarthen and board the 17:39 there. Even better would be for the 17:54 to wait at Carmarthen and continue to Fishguard behind the 17:39 to eliminate the evening changes to/from Fishguard at Clarbeston Road (or the 17:39 could be diverted to Fishguard and the 17:54 would carry on to Milford instead).

As soon as the 2012/2013 timetable is out for consultation, ill let you know,that is if ATW want to consult,they made sure no one was consulted about May & Sept changes a move away from transparency which many of the stakeholders have challenged. Has you mention and ATW confirm the growth is West/East in North Wales,with chronic overcrowding between Chester & Manchester. Likewise Cardiff to Manchester in the South

Bob
 

SprinterMan

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This service has to run to Abergavenny as Gerald took its place,if it is a 175 then it will end up at Chester garage for service, my understanding is,between Salop & Crewe it will replace a local, then replace an half hourly to Chester. When Gerald started ATW cleverly dropped a return Abvergavenny to Cardiff around 1700 hours.
The problem with paths is between Wrexham & Salop I am told.

Does this mean that Gobowen/Chirk/Ruabon will get served Northbound then?
Adam :D
 

LNW-GW Joint

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Just a few observations today between Chester and Wrexham:
There's some sort of concrete base being built on the west of the line about half way (Pulford area).
Also some contractor work half-way up Gresford bank.
Not sure what this means (if anything!).

Another observation is the poor state of the track on the flat between Saltney and Rossett.
There are two sizeable lengths of jointed track either side the A483 bridge, with some very odd rail lengths.
Hopefully it will be upgraded with the proposed dualling.
 

PHILIPE

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This service has to run to Abergavenny as Gerald took its place,if it is a 175 then it will end up at Chester garage for service, my understanding is,between Salop & Crewe it will replace a local, then replace an half hourly to Chester. When Gerald started ATW cleverly dropped a return Abvergavenny to Cardiff around 1700 hours.
The problem with paths is between Wrexham & Salop I am told.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


I have not heard anything of extra LHCS services, now called" enhanced service"



A lot of fog is being put out for December, but who will pay to run the extra LHCS trains, ATW wont Mike Bagshaw said this in Parliament to the Welsh Select Committee this week.
also another interesting quote from him

Mike Bagshaw: On our cross-border services, we have been seeing very strong growth, typically between 8% and 13% over the years of the franchise. Cross-border services are probably seeing the strongest growth across the Arriva Trains Wales network. The key routes are north Wales to Manchester, mid-Wales to Birmingham, and Cardiff to Manchester. We have been seeing very strong growth, particularly on the long-distance flows over the last few years.[/QUOTE]
My understanding is that the 16 21 ex Cardiff (15 10 ex Swansea) will run independently of the local between Shrewsbury and Crewe. I cannot confirm everything yet because full details of alteratios have not yet been processed due to their not yet being ratified by Network Rail. I can just quote snippets and rather wait now until the full picture is clear.
A 17xx from Abergavenny to Cardiff was put into the history book long before the WAG started to run. In the years prior to the WAG it used to run ECS to Pontypool and start from there and rush it back in time to form 17 39 Swanline ex Cardiff. It worked in this way to avoid shunting at Abergavenny from one platform to the other to save critical time, whereas if empty it could reverse back through the xover.
Also you cant't interfere with Fishguard services at the presnt time as the present service is being trialled for a 3 year period.
Will there be an additional LHCS from December, I wonder. Perhaps anybody with stakeholder knowledge would like to comment when something further is known - depending on ATW consulting, of course. Definitely nothing for September.
 

merlodlliw

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Does this mean that Gobowen/Chirk/Ruabon will get served Northbound then?
Adam :D

ATW have been quiet on this,I presume you mean the DVT/67, has the three will not be called at on the Southbound due to extra time needed at Chester, I presume similar on the Northbound, otherwise I have not heard.
On the Southbound ATW are using a post chase DMU between Wrexham & Salop to connect with the 67/DVT & Birmingham diverted by Crewe to give the 67 a Path.
 

Rhydgaled

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Also you cant't interfere with Fishguard services at the presnt time as the present service is being trialled for a 3 year period.
Does this mean the two changes at Clarbeston Road are locked in stone and these services cannot be replaced by others to/from further afield at a similar time? The evening service from Cardiff has been ajusted to run later and to come from Gloucester, so I can't see why the 20:05ish Clarbeston Road to Fishguard couldn't be replaced with a 17:54ish Cardiff - Fishguard.

Also, the anouncment was that there would be a 3-year trial of 5 extra services each way between Fishguard and Carmarthen, going just to/from Clarbeston Road (one service into Fishguard doesn't even have a connection from Carmarthen) is not what was promised. That connection-less Clarbeston Road - Fishguard is basicly an ECS move, as is a least one of the other services that have been counted among the '5 extras each way' we were promised. Still, the service should be quite good now if only the last connection into the last train of the day wasn't full and standing out of Cardiff.
 

merlodlliw

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When IWJ announced the funding package for three years, ATW had not been forewarned, it was then up to ATW to supply the five extra services,of course nothing stops ATW improving the plan at its own expense:)
I am not sure how the trial works,numbers of pax or what,plus how are the figures calculated & I know how numbers can be fudged.
I wish the scheme well, here in Wrexham when we lost two BH services, I had two written replies to my question.
WG Rail Unit & Mike Bagshaw "the two services were historically little used"
ATW complaints depot "The trains were unavailable,due to not been required on the Bidston route on Bank Holiday "

How you calculate historically little used after only three years service is anyone's guess,(services in question Wrexham/Salop) the ATW complaints dept confirmed our suspicions without the usual spin factor.
I just mention this out of interest, using our own three year example.

...................................................................................................
 
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jones_bangor

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Interesting. Takes the "spare" out of the equation. This would however still allow two extra LHCS diagrams per day to operate.

Presumably when the 67s and DVTs were being procured, 4 x LHCS diagrams were very much on the cards.

That will now just be 2 x LHCS diagrams, which makes sense.
 

Michael.Y

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Presumably when the 67s and DVTs were being procured, 4 x LHCS diagrams were very much on the cards.

That will now just be 2 x LHCS diagrams, which makes sense.

Given that there will be a gap between Gerald arriving at 0958 and departing at 1818, there's plenty of room for another movement....
 
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