Your rail predictions for 2015

[northwichcat]

What are your rail predictions for 2015?

Mine are as follows:


Electrification

Patrick McLoughlin will reluctantly inform us in a couple of months that North TPE electrification will be moved back in to CP6. However, I think it'll come in the form of a new TPE electrification announcement whereby Manchester-York, York-Middlesbrough, Leeds-Hull, Stockport-Sheffield plus Warrington-Chester will all be electrified by some date in CP6 and hidden in that will be a revised date for Manchester to York/Selby.


TPE franchise specification

I expect the new franchise specification won't include Liverpool-Nottingham from the outset but there will be an option to move it at a later date.

I expect the new South TPE service will go ahead in the form of a Chester-Sheffield service, which will be easy to switch to electric at a later date.

I expect the revised North TPE service pattern to eventually be the following services half-hourly (assuming my prediction about electrification is correct):
Liverpool-Newcastle
Piccadilly-Hull
Airport-Middlesbrough


New stock

I expect one of the following to be announced:

Option A: With delays to TPE electrification, TPE will take on a number of the 170s released by Scotrail for extra capacity until such time that they can on electric units (by which time class 150 withdrawal will need to start.) Northern will be allowed to order new DMUs with the price being kept as low as possible.

Option B: Northern will eventually get the released Scotrail 170s. TPE will be allowed to order some bi-mode trains initially for North TPE services.

 

[Baggypants]

Google buy Virgin and require everyone to have a Google account in order to buy tickets. Trial driverless trains and block access to Bing on the WiFi. Everyone thinks it's all a brilliant idea apart from a minority who complain about having a Google account. These people already have a Google account but it's the principle of the thing.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
A Chinese conglomerate announce a plan to build a Maglev link between Birmingham and the airport. The BBC announce it as "The first commercial Maglev line in the UK"

 

[Saint66]

People wont stop moaning on here in 2015.

 

[al.currie93]

A government announcement to replace pacers as soon as possible will be made.

The Bring Back First Capital Connect group will be founded.

News about the fantastic new Class 800 that Richard Branson will be financing out of his back pocket will begin appearing.

Abellio will continue to paint everything white.

Class 442s will be sent to the GEML and be top and tailed by class 43s.



Seriously though, I don't think any real changes will be seen other than a few franchise changes, which will only mean people will moan about the new one :P

 

[Senex]

Aged and unrefurbished 319s will begin running in the north-west, with the DfT sure to describe them as a great investment for the north of England shewing government commitment to introduce modern rolling stock (despite 3+2 seating, no air-conditioning, seats too low relative to the windows ....).

About March announcement of postponement of Manchester- Leeds electrification (but Leeds to Hull and York to go ahead).

About June a Miliband-led government will cancel all electrification projects that have not been started in England and announce that the money is needed for investment in Scotland and Wales.

 

[northwichcat]

About June a Miliband-led government will cancel all electrification projects that have not been started in England and announce that the money is needed for investment in Scotland and Wales.

I think it's unlikely Labour would literally do that. However, as new DMUs are cheaper than electrification and Joe Public would probably rather have new DMUs than cascaded EMUs that haven't been refurbished, they probably could cut back electrification and keep Labour voters in the North on side.

However, if there's a hung parliament and Labour enter a Coaltion which includes the Green Party, HS2 would probably be the first thing that is put up for review.

 

[deltic]

Announcements made prior to May 2015 will include

New HS2 station to be built in Chilterns
Chiltern lines to be electrified
New rolling stock to be introduced on services to Clacton and Thanet
New direct rail services to operate from Great Yarmouth to Liverpool Street
New direct London rail service announced to any other location where UKIP may win
All rail lines serving Sheffield to be electrified and new rolling stock to be introduced
New rail diversionary route to be built to serve South West England
HS2 told to examine feasibility of a new high speed route between London and south west.
New Oyster type smart cards to be introduced everywhere
New Anglo-Scottish high speed rail routes announced
rail fares to be frozen for five years

Announcements after May 2015

All electrification work not yet started to be postponed indefinitely
Rail fares to increase by RPI +2%
HS2 to be scaled down to reduce costs (chiltern station sadly scrapped) and route north of Birmingham to be postponed for 10 years
All other rail schemes including smart card introduction not yet started to be cancelled
New inquiry launched into location of new south east runway
Government to commission study looking at new rolling stock requirements to be published after the next election in 2020

 

[MidlandMainlie]

My aren't we all a pessimistic lot. Ok here we go

What are your rail predictions for 2015?

Mine are as follows:


Electrification

Patrick McLoughlin will reluctantly inform us in a couple of months that North TPE electrification will be moved back in to CP6. However, I think it'll come in the form of a new TPE electrification announcement whereby Manchester-York, York-Middlesbrough, Leeds-Hull, Stockport-Sheffield plus Warrington-Chester will all be electrified by some date in CP6 and hidden in that will be a revised date for North TPE.


TPE

I expect the new franchise specification won't include Liverpool-Nottingham from the outset but there will be an option to move it at a later date.

I expect the new South TPE service will go ahead in the form of a Chester-Sheffield service, which will be easy to switch to electric at a later date.

I expect the revised North TPE service pattern to eventually be the following services half-hourly (assuming my prediction about electrification is correct):
Liverpool-Newcastle
Piccadilly-Hull
Airport-Middlesbrough


New stock

I expect one of the following to be announced:

Option A: With delays to TPE electrification, TPE will take on a number of the 170s released by Scotrail for extra capacity until such time that they can us electric units (by which time class 150 withdrawal will need to start.) Northern will be allowed to order new DMUs with the price being kept as low as possible.

Option B: Northern will eventually get the released Scotrail 170s. TPE will be allowed to order some bi-mode trains initially for North TPE services.

Largely agree with all of that, think option A the more likely with 170's on South Transpennine and 185's concentrated on North Transpennine. Nothern will take on some Trnspennine routes o Blackpool, Windermere and Barrow and run them wsing extra cascaded 319's or DMU's freed up from electrification.

On HS2 in March there will be a big announcement regarding HS3 including route options and integration with HS2. This will lead to some changes to HS2 in Leeds and Manchester (e.g. remodelling of Leeds station for integrated HS2/3 services plus some route changes north of Crewe for Liverpool - Manchester - Leeds HS3. This will immediately win the backing of Northern Labour Council leaders and tie Miliband's hands into fully supporting HS2/3 or risk a damaging split with Labours northern councils.

Assuming as is looking increasingly likely Labour will have to form a collation with the SNP post General election then the price will be a third phase to Scotland with the Scottish government getting new devolved tax and borrowing powers to fund the High speed Rail construction north of the border.

On Electrification assuming Transpennine is differed into CP6 then I can see parts of the electric spine also being differed e.g. Basingstoke - Southampton conversion and Leamington - Coventry - Nuneaton look like easy targets but the core MML and East West Rail will go ahead as planned.

 

[Senex]

Announcements made prior to May 2015 will include

New HS2 station to be built in Chilterns
Chiltern lines to be electrified
New rolling stock to be introduced on services to Clacton and Thanet
New direct rail services to operate from Great Yarmouth to Liverpool Street
New direct London rail service announced to any other location where UKIP may win
All rail lines serving Sheffield to be electrified and new rolling stock to be introduced
New rail diversionary route to be built to serve South West England
HS2 told to examine feasibility of a new high speed route between London and south west.
New Oyster type smart cards to be introduced everywhere
New Anglo-Scottish high speed rail routes announced
rail fares to be frozen for five years

Announcements after May 2015

All electrification work not yet started to be postponed indefinitely
Rail fares to increase by RPI +2%
HS2 to be scaled down to reduce costs (chiltern station sadly scrapped) and route north of Birmingham to be postponed for 10 years
All other rail schemes including smart card introduction not yet started to be cancelled
New inquiry launched into location of new south east runway
Government to commission study looking at new rolling stock requirements to be published after the next election in 2020

And some might just call you a trifle cynical in your opinion of our dedicated, devoted, and wonderful politicians ......

 

[edwin_m]

Northern franchise bidders will pick up all the D78 conversions as the cheapest way to get rid of some Pacers. Vivarail or another company will follow up with a similar conversion of 314 or 315 stock to give a bi-mode version.

 

[northwichcat]

Northern franchise bidders will pick up all the D78 conversions as the cheapest way to get rid of some Pacers. Vivarail or another company will follow up with a similar conversion of 314 or 315 stock to give a bi-mode version.

Couldn't another company come up with 31x conversion as a rival to Vivarail's proposal? That would then have the advantage of being 75mph stock which is a NR standard carriage length and width meaning they would be less likely to come up against clearance issues.

 

[anti-pacer]

Pacers will be staying for another 20 years, but us Northerners will be getting non-refurbished 319's for our new showcase electric lines, so we can put up, shut up, and get back in our corner until we stop sulking.

All other TOC's except Northern to get new stock.

That'll teach us for not voting blue!

 

[northwichcat]

That'll teach us for not voting blue!

Unfortunately there are Conservative MPs who represent places served by Northern Rail. We've got one here who actively avoids the local Pacer/Sprinter service and gets a taxi to and from the nearest station with a Pendolino service to London despite telling us "the economy is improving" and "we're all in it together."

 

[Tony2215]

My prediction for 2015 is Northern will be given a five or six year extension on their franchise, just a friendly way for the government to stick two fingers up at the North as they have always done in the past.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

There are endless permutations, but the main issue will be which party or parties are in power from May, and what their rail policy is.
If the Tories don't get back in there will be a major review of rail projects.
I can see franchise competitions in progress (ie Northern/TPE) being put back a year until a new spec is published after the election.

More uproar in the north (outside Manchester) as Rail North turns out to be TfGM in disguise.
Devolution will be even more unpopular than centralisation (as local people will now make the hard decisions on services and fares).

Electrification will be reprofiled as jcollins says.
Electric spine will be quietly forgotten.
Network Rail will have a bad year, with all the indicators going the wrong way and ORR on the warpath.
At least Reading and Birmingham New St will be finished.

Big projects will be in big cost trouble (HS2, Northern Hub, East-West Rail).
No new rolling stock orders will be placed (other than those already in the pipeline, eg to replace GN 313s).
Class 700/800 manufacture will go well.
Passenger numbers will keep on rising.
Wolmar will start asking: "what are franchises for".

 

[Bevan Price]

1. After the election, it will be announced that, after a careful survey, none of the existing cross-Pennine routes were found to be suitable for economic upgrading to HS3 standard. Therefore, the proposals for HS3 are deferred indefinitely.

2. Prime Minister Osborne asks a Dr. B Ching to examine the future financing of the railway network.

3. 9 Northern Class 158 transferred to TPE as Class 170 replacements. Leeds - Nottingham service converted to Class 156 operation.

4. Electrification of Trans Pennine routes will be deferred for up to 5 - 10 years. Other proposed, supposedly approved, schemes will also be deferred, due to the need to divert funding to HS2 and new motorways (although the public announcement will not explain the real reason.)

 

[Aldaniti]

News about the fantastic new Class 800 that Richard Branson will be financing out of his back pocket will begin appearing.

Indeed, ECML users should get ready for the smell of wafting red bull****, the will be plenty of it to come .....

My only prediction is that we might well see the year on year increase in passenger numbers either ease off, or even show a slight decline. Depending on how ATOC/RDG fiddle the figures of course.

 

[Manchester77]

The run up to the election will be dominated by the conservatives telling us how the last labour government was very bad so we shouldn't vote for them instead we should vote for them and their long term economic plan will benefit everyone and everything will be all sunny and happy. The northern and TPE franchise ITTs will be released and David Cameron will proclaim that they are a 'good deal for the north'. Labour will desperately try to claw back up the Scottish polls by promising that a labour majority will extend HS2 to Scotland and something about value for money - Nicola Sturgeon will simply respond with a comment about a HS link between Edinburgh and Glasgow will be better for Scotland and that Scotland shouldn't trust the red tories. Then when the SNP become the third party of the UK most likely supporting a labour Minority government Scotland will get more powers and labours plans will become nothing more as Ed Balls says they're not value for money.

We'll continue to get the DfT leave rolling stock to the 'market' except when they don't still not taking up any kind of national rolling stock plan

I also think its best we say goodbye to Plaid Cymrus seats in Wales, they'll probably only get one. But oh well 2015 might be good Caroline Lucas' Railway Bill might pass....if the tories have a change of heart

 

[mister-sparky]

One guaranteed prediction for 2015.

There will be at least 5 billion posts a day from northerners moaning and bitching about how people in the south east get the most investment and better stuff.

 

[Busaholic]

The sea wall and railway line at Dawlish fall into the English Channel, sparking a mini tidal wave which does for all the neighbouring track along that coast.

If pre -May, Cameron is helicoptered in to announce money will be no object to finding a permanent solution, no-one could have foreseen another once-in-a-century occurrence and an immediate judicial enquiry will commence as soon as they can find a senior judge not already engaged on another enquiry; Clegg is helicoptered in separately to say that if only all of Devon and Cornwall vote LibDem in the coming election, all will be well as he will still be Deputy P.M. and he'll ensure his Coalition partners deliver whatever is decided.

If post-May, Deputy P.M. Alex Salmond will be helicoptered in to say that if only the voters in Cornwall had voted for a nationalist candidate, then they could have a high-speed line, with tunnel under Dartmoor, to whisk them through to Exeter, but, as it was, all spare money was going to go to Scotland as per the post-referendum concord.

If either pre- or post-May, it is announced a royal personage will also be helicoptered in for an hour's handwringing and expressions of condescension, but when it is realised Prince Andrew is coming the Girl's School Band is hurried away.

Old Moore (and more and more)

 

[GrimsbyPacer]

One guaranteed prediction for 2015.

There will be at least 5 billion posts a day from northerners moaning and bitching about how people in the south east get the most investment and better stuff.

I find that post offensive. You are attacking millions of people because of their location, it's malice discrimination. People in the North do moan about the service, so do South people.

My prediction is that no new rail projects will be announced.
Also Ilkeston and Fleetwood stations will open.

 

[CC 72100]

One guaranteed prediction for 2015.

There will be at least 5 billion posts a day from northerners moaning and bitching about how people in the south east get the most investment and better stuff.

Indeed, and often using the word 'South' as a direct replacement for London, which fails to account for the fact that large parts of the 'South' - this golden land with new trains every 5 minutes, no overcrowding and cheap fares - has a lot of areas that in rail terms, are not too dissimilar to the 'North'.

 

[bussnapperwm]

At least one operator will have a strike happen to them.

 

[fandroid]

Virgin Trains reduce their London-Liverpool service in order to find enough trains to serve more important places like Blackpool and Shrewsbury

On their Bicester services Chiltern start making on-train announcement exclusively in Mandarin

The Bite Card discount will go down to 5% (without announcement) and the promised 'even more rewards' will fail to materialise, just like last year

Virgin will increase the volume of the 'Bing Bong' that precedes announcements, because they feel that really deaf people cannot hear them.

An ISIS plotter will infiltrate ATOC and increase security announcements on trains to the point where passengers are driven to murdering the on-train staff

Boris Johnson will introduce red double deck trains on London Overground as they are a 'London Icon'

 

[adrock1976]

Google buy Virgin and require everyone to have a Google account in order to buy tickets. Trial driverless trains and block access to Bing on the WiFi. Everyone thinks it's all a brilliant idea apart from a minority who complain about having a Google account. These people already have a Google account but it's the principle of the thing.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
A Chinese conglomerate announce a plan to build a Maglev link between Birmingham and the airport. The BBC announce it as "The first commercial Maglev line in the UK"

I remember there was a Maglev link between International station and the airport terminal building first time round in the 1980s.

In peace

Adam

 

[TheJRB]

The run up to the election will be dominated by the conservatives telling us how the last labour government was very bad so we shouldn't vote for them instead we should vote for them and their long term economic plan will benefit everyone and everything will be all sunny and happy. The northern and TPE franchise ITTs will be released and David Cameron will proclaim that they are a 'good deal for the north'. Labour will desperately try to claw back up the Scottish polls by promising that a labour majority will extend HS2 to Scotland and something about value for money - Nicola Sturgeon will simply respond with a comment about a HS link between Edinburgh and Glasgow will be better for Scotland and that Scotland shouldn't trust the red tories. Then when the SNP become the third party of the UK most likely supporting a labour Minority government Scotland will get more powers and labours plans will become nothing more as Ed Balls says they're not value for money.

We'll continue to get the DfT leave rolling stock to the 'market' except when they don't still not taking up any kind of national rolling stock plan

I also think its best we say goodbye to Plaid Cymrus seats in Wales, they'll probably only get one. But oh well 2015 might be good Caroline Lucas' Railway Bill might pass....if the tories have a change of heart

I think you just hit the nail on the head there!

I think one of two things will happen after the election at this point; either a Labour and SNP supply and confidence agreement or a Labour minority. In the case that the latter remains the only viable option, I imagine that (as Michael Portillo has alluded to) the Conservatives would back what would have to be quite a moderate maintenance budget from Labour to prevent another election from being forced straight away. The Conservatives would then wait until they were in a good enough place with the electorate to vote against the next budget and force an election. What would this mean for the railway? I'm not sure really but a Labour/SNP supply and confidence would probably mean a good five years for Scottish railways or a Labour minority would proabably simply mean maintaining the status quo.

As for the run up to election promises down here, I'd imagine something from the Lib Dems and/or the Conservatives about reinstating Willindon Chord near Eastbourne and Amber Rudd desperately trying to keep Hastings & Rye by pointing at the new 90 minute service to Charing Cross and somehow suggesting that the cascaded 170s to Southern will benefit the Marshlink.

 

[GrimsbyPacer]

I remember there was a Maglev link between International station and the airport terminal building first time round in the 1980s.

Cheers

Adam

The maglev track is still there, the new cable railway was just laid ontop. The maglev car is in York. It was a very slow maglev.

 

[route:oxford]

If post-May, Deputy P.M. Alex Salmond will be helicoptered in to say that if only the voters in Cornwall had voted for a nationalist candidate, then they could have a high-speed line, with tunnel under Dartmoor, to whisk them through to Exeter, but, as it was, all spare money was going to go to Scotland as per the post-referendum concord.

I thought Alex Salmond was getting Secretary of State for Northern Ireland?

Celtic bond and all that.

 

[caliwag]

Post 2015!...HS2 kicked into the very long grass!

 

[DaveNewcastle]

Predictions for 2015:

• Overrunning engineering works.
• Passengers increasingly confident that they know how to operate railways better than rail professionals.
• Everything costs too much.
• Large number of experienced rail personnel retire or redundant.
• Lots of talk of investment. Lots of talk of scaling down investment. Lots of investment (but not as much as talked about). Not much about the railways apparently any different by the end of the year.