Yet Another Idea for XC...

[Manutd1999]

It seems that the XC service is not being restored to post-COVID levels anytime soon, so I was thinking about what could be done as an alternative to just chopping services. Note I am only considering the long distance (Voyager) services here. Links to Cardiff, Nottingham, Leicester etc. are not part of these proposals.

XC are currently running 2x hourly services:
Plymouth - Bristol - Birmingham - Leeds - Newcastle - Edinburgh
Bournemouth - Reading - Birmingham - Manchester

A lot of connections that existed pre-Covid, such as Bristol-Manchester, are reduced to just a few daily services , with rumours they may return at 1p2h.

However, the XC paths arrive at New Street at similar times and have dwells of up to 15 mins. My idea is to alternate the destinations every hour. For example,

Hour 1: Plymouth - Birmingham - Edinburgh // Bournemouth - Birmingham - Manchester
Hour 2: Plymouth - Birmingham - Manchester // Bournemouth - Birmingham - Edinburgh

This gives a much wider range of connections at a 1p2h frequency, whilst keeping the same hourly services into Birmingham.


There is then a second path available on each branch, which used to be the Newcastle-Reading and Manchester-Bristol services. These paths are mostly unused at present. I would treat this slightly differently:

I would hand the Manchester-Birmingham path to WMR or Northern for an hourly EMU shuttle-type service, perhaps even continuing onto Birmingham International if there is space. This is a better way of providing capacity, with the full range of (pre Covid) long-distance connections already provided by the alternating pattern described above.

The Birmingham to Newcastle path is the 'fast' path via Doncaster. IMO it makes sense to take more advantage of the faster route. It should be restored to hourly and extended to Edinburgh. The trains via Leeds could then be terminated at York, saving some units and better separating the Leeds and North-East/Scotland passenger flows. Leeds-Edinburgh would be picked up by TPE.

Similar to the above, the new Edinburgh service could alternate between the Plymouth and Southampton, giving both of those branches 3p2h in total. Compared to pre-Covid, this would add new connections from Southampton/Reading/Oxford to Scotland, and would offer Exeter/Bristol a faster service.

In summary, I would have the following trains running 1p2h (not all stops are listed):

Hour 1:
Plymouth - Bristol - Birmingham NS - Sheffield - Leeds - York
Bournemouth - Southampton - Reading - Birmingham NS - Manchester Picc
Plymouth - Bristol - Birmingham NS - Sheffield - Doncaster - York - Newcastle - Edinburgh

Hour 2:
Plymouth - Bristol - Birmingham NS - Manchester Picc
Bournemouth - Southampton - Reading - Birmingham NS - Sheffield - Leeds - York
Bournemouth - Southampton - Reading - Birmingham NS - Sheffield - Doncaster - York - Newcastle - Edinburgh

This pattern would be achievable using the current paths, give or take a few minor tweaks at New Street. There would be more units required than today but still significantly less than pre-Covid, with only 1x service north of York and 3p2h on the Bristol/Southampton branches. This should enable most services to be double Voyagers.

 

[Starmill]

The May timetable makes a number of amendments to the pattern you describe, it may be worth noting those first.

It's also worth noting that now that TPE have agreed to carry largely fresh air running additional services between Newcastle or Berwick-upon-Tweed and Edinburgh that call at Reston (and will call at East Linton) they probably haven't got enough rolling stock to run Leeds to Edinburgh hourly.

 

[Purple Orange]

I have a feeling there will not be a return to Manchester-Bristol direct at all. The travelling public will get used to double voyagers and a change at New Street, with the idea that when HS2 is delivered we will readily migrate to changing from a HS2 service at Curzon Street & Moor Street.

 

[30907]

While I like the idea of swapping paths at New Street, unfortunately you would need to adjust one or other leg by several minutes each time to make it work, which would be a major challenge rather than a "minor tweak." (Not saying it's impossible, as I haven't checked further.)
The booked stop is 6-8 minutes, and (for example) a NE to SW arrives just as the NW to Bournemouth is leaving (making the NW-SW connection work in that direction, whereas Bournemouth-NE is the one that works northbound.)

 

[Grecian 1998]

I have a feeling there will not be a return to Manchester-Bristol direct at all. The travelling public will get used to double voyagers and a change at New Street, with the idea that when HS2 is delivered we will readily migrate to changing from a HS2 service at Curzon Street & Moor Street.

There are a handful of Bristol - Manchester services returning in the May timetable. Not many, but some.

 

[Starmill]

I have a feeling there will not be a return to Manchester-Bristol direct at all.

Some are now on sale so there will be some very unhappy customers if so.

 

[Manutd1999]

While I like the idea of swapping paths at New Street, unfortunately you would need to adjust one or other leg by several minutes each time to make it work, which would be a major challenge rather than a "minor tweak."

The Plymouth service arrives at New Street at XX56 and departs and XX03 for Leeds/Newcastle/Edinburgh
The Reading service arrives at XX48 and departs and XX57 for Manchester.

To allow swapping, the Plymouth service would have to arrive at around ~XX52 or earlier, leaving a minimum dwell of circa 5 minutes before departing at XX57.

The Plymouth service currently sits at Bristol for 10 minutes, so there is definitely some flexibility to start that leg a few minutes earlier. Pathing into New Street is hard to assess but the only other service I can see passing through Five Ways is the XC to Nottingham, which is ~10 minutes before.

 

[The Planner]

The Plymouth service arrives at New Street at XX56 and departs and XX03 for Leeds/Newcastle/Edinburgh
The Reading service arrives at XX48 and departs and XX57 for Manchester.

To allow swapping, the Plymouth service would have to arrive at around ~XX52 or earlier, leaving a minimum dwell of circa 5 minutes before departing at XX57.

The Plymouth service currently sits at Bristol for 10 minutes, so there is definitely some flexibility to start that leg a few minutes earlier. Pathing into New Street is hard to assess but the only other service I can see passing through Five Ways is the XC to Nottingham, which is ~10 minutes before.

You also still have to get the Bournemouth to sit at New St from xx.48 to xx.03 as well remember. You would be better off trying to go via the Camp Hill to avoid the reversal and the Cross City train which would be in front of it which stops you getting in earlier. You would have to have 5 minimum for a reversal at New St.

 

[david1212]

However, the XC paths arrive at New Street at similar times and have dwells of up to 15 mins. My idea is to alternate the destinations every hour. For example,

Hour 1: Plymouth - Birmingham - Edinburgh // Bournemouth - Birmingham - Manchester
Hour 2: Plymouth - Birmingham - Manchester // Bournemouth - Birmingham - Edinburgh

This gives a much wider range of connections at a 1p2h frequency, whilst keeping the same hourly services into Birmingham.

This what XC always should have been.

In summary, I would have the following trains running 1p2h (not all stops are listed):

Hour 1:
Plymouth - Bristol - Birmingham NS - Sheffield - Leeds - York
Bournemouth - Southampton - Reading - Birmingham NS - Manchester Picc
Plymouth - Bristol - Birmingham NS - Sheffield - Doncaster - York - Newcastle - Edinburgh

Hour 2:
Plymouth - Bristol - Birmingham NS - Manchester Picc
Bournemouth - Southampton - Reading - Birmingham NS - Sheffield - Leeds - York
Bournemouth - Southampton - Reading - Birmingham NS - Sheffield - Doncaster - York - Newcastle - Edinburgh

This pattern would be achievable using the current paths, give or take a few minor tweaks at New Street. There would be more units required than today but still significantly less than pre-Covid, with only 1x service north of York and 3p2h on the Bristol/Southampton branches. This should enable most services to be double Voyagers.

To best cover routes where no or few alternative service terminating some services at York is logical.

While the ongoing 1 train per 2 hours south of Reading with no direct alternative even just to Southampton is appalling realistically is there sufficient demand for two? Hence cut your second train back to e.g. Reading or run elsewhere e.g. Gatwick to provide a through service avoiding London.

Similarly in hour 1 instead of 2tph to Plymouth one train to Paignton.

 

[py_megapixel]

There are a handful of Bristol - Manchester services returning in the May timetable. Not many, but some.

"Not many" is understating it. Three a day MAN-BRI, two in the other direction, and they're generally clustered together rather than spread out over the day.

A reliable 2tph all day MAN-BHM EMU would be far more useful on paper than the random assortment of services XC provides - though it might put off some leisure travellers who don't want the change in Birmingham.

 

[317 forever]

Sorry @Manutd1999 but I think you mean that XC is not returning to pre-Covid (not post-Covid) levels yet

 

[class397tpe]

"Not many" is understating it. Three a day MAN-BRI, two in the other direction, and they're generally clustered together rather than spread out over the day.

A reliable 2tph all day MAN-BHM EMU would be far more useful on paper than the random assortment of services XC provides - though it might put off some leisure travellers who don't want the change in Birmingham.

the class 379s are sitting around waiting for someone to use them
Wonder if the extortionate fares that XC charge would be enough to cover the high leasing costs...

 

[Manutd1999]

A reliable 2tph all day MAN-BHM EMU would be far more useful on paper than the random assortment of services XC provides - though it might put off some leisure travellers who don't want the change in Birmingham.

1ph EMU + 1ph XC seems like a reasonable balance.

To best cover routes where no or few alternative service terminating some services at York is logical.

Terminating the Leeds train at York is also beneficial for separating the Leeds and Newcastle passenger flows. Even pre-Covid, the same train was trying to serve both the BHM-Newcastle/Scotland and BHM-Leeds flows, hence was routinely overcrowded.

This would also allow the Leeds train to pick up more calls (Chesterfield, Burton) and become more of a 'regional' service aimed at connectivity, whereas the via Doncaster train runs as an express.

While the ongoing 1 train per 2 hours south of Reading with no direct alternative even just to Southampton is appalling realistically is there sufficient demand for two? Hence cut your second train back to e.g. Reading or run elsewhere e.g. Gatwick to provide a through service avoiding London.

Similarly in hour 1 instead of 2tph to Plymouth one train to Paignton.

I like both of these ideas. I will edit my suggestion

Hour 1:
Plymouth - Bristol - Birmingham NS - Sheffield - Leeds - York
Bournemouth - Southampton - Reading - Birmingham NS - Manchester Picc
Paignton - Bristol - Birmingham NS - Sheffield - Doncaster - York - Newcastle - Edinburgh

Hour 2:
Plymouth - Bristol - Birmingham NS - Manchester Picc
Bournemouth - Southampton - Reading - Birmingham NS - Sheffield - Leeds - York
Brighton - Reading - Birmingham NS - Sheffield - Doncaster - York - Newcastle - Edinburgh

 

[JonathanH]

Brighton - Reading

Seriously. Just forget about XC at Brighton. It isn't needed and isn't going to happen.

 

[gc4946]

I like both of these ideas. I will edit my suggestion

Hour 1:
Plymouth - Bristol - Birmingham NS - Sheffield - Leeds - York
Bournemouth - Southampton - Reading - Birmingham NS - Manchester Picc
Paignton - Bristol - Birmingham NS - Sheffield - Doncaster - York - Newcastle - Edinburgh

Hour 2:
Plymouth - Bristol - Birmingham NS - Manchester Picc
Bournemouth - Southampton - Reading - Birmingham NS - Sheffield - Leeds - York
Brighton - Reading - Birmingham NS - Sheffield - Doncaster - York - Newcastle - Edinburgh

I hope your final version is given consideration at Cross Country's HQ, a North East to South Coast link is sorely missed to see old schoolmates down south!

 

[43096]

I hope your final version is given consideration at Cross Country's HQ

It won't be.

 

[Neptune]

I hope your final version is given consideration at Cross Country's HQ, a North East to South Coast link is sorely missed to see old schoolmates down south!

The quickest way from the North East to the South Coast is down the ECML to Kings Cross, transfer to St Pancras Thameslink and direct journey to Brighton.

 

[A S Leib]

The quickest way from the North East to the South Coast is down the ECML to Kings Cross, transfer to St Pancras Thameslink and direct journey to Brighton.

And Brighton to Salisbury / Bath & Bristol / Newport & Cardiff's slightly quicker via London (Clapham Junction / Farringdon & Paddington) as well.

 

[Manutd1999]

The mention of Brighton seems to provoke some strong reactions / hysteria

That service could be cut back to Reading if needed without affecting to overall proposal.

 

[swt_passenger]

The mention of Brighton seems to provoke some strong reactions / hysteria

Only because everyone who posts the suggestion thinking they're being original seems blissfully unaware that others have already suggested it about three times a year since about 2007…

 

[Purple Orange]

I think what we really need is a XC service from Liverpool to Brighton, 1 train every 2 or 3 hours!

 

[gc4946]

The mention of Brighton seems to provoke some strong reactions / hysteria

That service could be cut back to Reading if needed without affecting to overall proposal.

Most of my former schoolmates live in and around Portsmouth also one in Bournemouth

 

[Bletchleyite]

There are a handful of Bristol - Manchester services returning in the May timetable. Not many, but some.

TBH I think they cut the wrong one from Manchester - is demand to Bournemouth really that high? Manchester-Bristol and North East-Bournemouth make more sense as pairs. No, not many people will be going from Newcastle to Bournemouth, but not many will be going from there to Bristol either, it's a bit far! (And there are flights which would be far quicker). There would be demand for Manchester-Reading but a lot of that would go via London as it wouldn't be much slower and fares will be more attractive due to the huge amount of capacity on Manchester-Euston.

 

[JonathanH]

TBH I think they cut the wrong one from Manchester - is demand to Bournemouth really that high? Manchester-Bristol and North East-Bournemouth make more sense as pairs. No, not many people will be going from Newcastle to Bournemouth, but not many will be going from there to Bristol either, it's a bit far! (And there are flights which would be far quicker). There would be demand for Manchester-Reading but a lot of that would go via London as it wouldn't be much slower and fares will be more attractive due to the huge amount of capacity on Manchester-Euston.

The primary services on XC, right back to BR days, have always been South West to North East and South to North West so it is fairly obvious why those were chosen for the 1tph service.

I dont think Bournemouth is the key driver of passengers from Manchester but that isn't why that is the favoured service. Things like HSTs running on the SW-NE corridor and Plymouth / Bournemouth being the longer distance routes will have led the decision. The Manchester - Bristol and Newcastle - Reading services are the 'shorts'.

 

[Manutd1999]

TBH I think they cut the wrong one from Manchester - is demand to Bournemouth really that high? Manchester-Bristol and North East-Bournemouth make more sense as pairs.

As I proposed, there's a fairly easy fix to this which is achievable with only minor timetable adjustments . Simply swap the destinations each hour:

Hour 1: Plymouth - Birmingham - Edinburgh // Bournemouth - Birmingham - Manchester
Hour 2: Plymouth - Birmingham - Manchester // Bournemouth - Birmingham - Edinburgh

This gives a much wider range of connections at a 1p2h frequency, whilst keeping the same hourly services into Birmingham.

 

[The Planner]

I thought this was discussed before and they weren't "minor"

 

[Grecian 1998]

I assumed that a driving factor for the SW-NE and SC-NW routes being prioritised is operational. They don't involve a reversal at New Street and they cause less of a capacity crunch. The SW-NE services stay on the south side of the station (platforms 7-12) and the SC - NW services stay on the north side of the station (platforms 1-6). You don't then have services manoeuvring across the station blocking multiple other lines. Manchester - Bristol services are a particular issue - they exit New Street via Camp Hill to avoid crossing virtually every line at the west end of the station.

Might seem arbitrary but when you have so little spare capacity these things presumably matter.

 

[Mitchell Hurd]

Just a thought - if GWR took on the TfW 158's as suggested elsewhere on this forum, could a few HST's have their lease extended to 2030 and transfer to CrossCountry to increase capacity there instead? Would that be easier than relying on 20 or nearly Voyagers from Avanti West Coast?

 

[JonathanH]

Just a thought - if GWR took on the TfW 158's as suggested elsewhere on this forum, could a few HST's have their lease extended to 2030 and transfer to CrossCountry to increase capacity there instead? Would that be easier than relying on 20 or nearly Voyagers from Avanti West Coast?

No, that isn't going to happen. All indications are that the DfT want HSTs off the network, including those currently operated by CrossCountry. They would not allow CrossCountry to lease GWR HSTs.

 

[Rich McLean]

No, that isn't going to happen. All indications are that the DfT want HSTs off the network, including those currently operated by CrossCountry. They would not allow CrossCountry to lease GWR HSTs.

Also just to add, the TfW 158s are likely not to be going to GWR, as 175s will be released first to go to Northern, to in turn release via cascade more 150s or 158s to GWR, which will then replace the HSTs.

Also the lease dates around HSTs can be overcome with DfT intervention.