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XC desperately needs more rolling stock

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The Planner

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I have a feeling this will be one of the services to go in the long run, except maybe a daily service each way. It would free up several sets to make doubles and with the current cost-cutting it seems plausible. The Manchester to Bristol route again is another example of a potential one for the chop, again leaving just a sole daily service each way. This could include a firm end of trains to Newquay/Bath Spa among others, and also likely seeing extensions to Paignton go as well. Not to forget potentially all extensions beyond Edinburgh going as well.

The Cardiff-Edinburgh service I suspect will form a part of the major recast we can expect to see on the East Coast Mainline and might not necessarily be a divert of say 1S35/1V70, which on paper are probably the most likely from the current timetable. I also wouldn’t rule out an extension of 1S33 to start from Cardiff with a tie up at New Street to make a double set as well.

If you look at the numbers of cutting the above, it must free up at least 5-6 sets to make doubles. I was told last week that there are sufficient spares to use for the HST replacements (which annoyingly is only 2 sets) and you’ve also got the 7 from Avanti coming too. I have a feeling the last of the spare 221’s will likely end up with Grand Central in time, with the 222’s still a potential option later on.
I would be very very surprised if the Bristol Manchester went, unless it was 100% double Voyagers on Bournemouth's, even then its very retrograde. If Grand Union start progressing Stirling then I can see 221s ending up with them.
 
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sprinterguy

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I have a feeling this will be one of the services to go in the long run, except maybe a daily service each way. It would free up several sets to make doubles and with the current cost-cutting it seems plausible. The Manchester to Bristol route again is another example of a potential one for the chop, again leaving just a sole daily service each way. This could include a firm end of trains to Newquay/Bath Spa among others, and also likely seeing extensions to Paignton go as well. Not to forget potentially all extensions beyond Edinburgh going as well.
The hourly Manchester - Bristol and handful of Newcastle - Reading services have only recently been reintroduced. I would imagine that they're fairly core to any timetable plans for the next 4 years at least.
 

YorksLad12

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Indeed this is my usual train for work meetings in the Midlands, and it can get really busy south of around Sheffield. In future I will be avoiding this train wherever possible.

The rolling stock strategy, combined with high fares, is designed to deter travel as much as possible, but the demand is still sufficient to cause overcrowding.
1V50 was a double-Voyager this morning, according to RTT. I was on 1V48, four cars, which the CIS said was leaving from 15B at Leeds but actually left from 15A. Cue much movement of annoyed passengers. Fortunately, I hit the platform just as it arrived, saw what was happening and jumped the queue :E
 

GoneSouth

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I doubt very much that the current Cardiff to Nottingham service would be extended to Edinburgh. As I and others have said elsewhere it would seem more likely that one of the existing early morning Bristol to Edinburgh trains would start back at Cardiff. (Reverse in the evenng)
This is a big headline statement in the new contract for what is essentially starting one train per day 1 hour earlier at Cardiff rather than Bristol. This also used to happen before the COVID cutbacks as a Cardiff to Bristol only I think. So, no change really.

There are plenty of Cardiff Birmingham Derby trains already of course, and I doubt many people will be digging deep into their pockets to pay the ludicrous peak fares from Cardiff to Edinburgh on this service.

It’s all just desperate marketing without substantial improvement.

Glad to see a refurb has been promised and a restoring the stock to what it was before the HSTs were withdrawn, but again this is being sold as major improvements which it clearly isn’t, and is only going to undue the reductions already made to the fleet
 

swt_passenger

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This is a big headline statement in the new contract for what is essentially starting one train per day 1 hour earlier at Cardiff rather than Bristol. This also used to happen before the COVID cutbacks as a Cardiff to Bristol only I think. So, no change really.
Cardiff to Manchester Picc Via Bristol, it was shown as a through service in the timetable.
 

Rhydgaled

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The DfT should be applauded for making a wise decision to dispense with expensive-to-run relics from the past.
The Voyagers must be expensive to run too. Certainly Voyagers use more fuel than IC125s on a cost-per-seat basis - probably on a per-coach basis too but I'm not sure on that.

As for relics from the past, I would agrue that this is not a wise time to dispense of power-door fitted IC125s. Wise options would have been:
  • a dispensation to allow them to continue running with slam doors until the ex-Avanti Voyagers were available, instead of spending millions on upgrading them with power doors (they could maybe have reduced it to one daily diagram around now if XC had recenty gained two Voyagers instead of Grand Central, with the remaining IC125 following when Avanti start off-leasing more 221s)
  • getting a decent return on the investment in power doors by having them run until more electrification allows EMUs to replace them or cascade bi-modes from GWR, EMR and/or LNER
There are plenty of available emus off lease and a shortage of diesel trains, which are no longer being built in significant numbers because the plan is to phase them out long-term. Therefore it makes sense to reduce diesel "running under the wires" even if the consequence is that some more passengers need to change trains.
That is a reasonable arguement but what EMUs are we talking about here and, if we are to do what you suggest, why do we even have an XC franchise? The only off-lease EMUs I can think of (except perhaps ancient stuff like the 313s) are the class 379s, which are a long way from being InterCity units.

Now, if we had sidings full of 397s to play with (or indeed HS2 as (poorly) planned) then your argument would be stronger - do we then make everyone change at Birmingham and have Voyagers south from there with HS2 doing Birmingham to Manchester, Leeds and York? But, if we did that, why not have GWR run Devon/Cornwall-Bristol-Birmingham and Birmingham-Bournemouth and scrap the XC TOC altogether?

XC really is becoming an operator to avoid.
Apart from the handful of IC125 diagrams, they already were an operator to avoid for me (I like to look out of the window and XC Voyagers have a high risk of a blank panel to look at instead). Sadly, most of the others TOCs are now joining them in the 'avoid' pile thanks largely to Fainsa and their awful seats (although I think the last new seat I've sat in on a train that I thought was actually acceptable for a longish journey was the Grammer seats in Arriva Trains Wales' refurbished 158s and mark 3s*).

* even those seem less attractive since COVID - Modern Railways' Ian Walmsley was right when he wrote "Our expectations are managed downwards train by train, but that doesn’t work on someone moving from EasyJet or company car. They just see a hard, uncomfortable seat." Unfortunately for me it also didn't work when I was kept off public transport for a couple of years due to COVID - coming back afterwards my expectations were no longer based on my prior rail travel but private cars and the nice, comfy, sofas at home.
 

LUYMun

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As for relics from the past, I would agrue that this is not a wise time to dispense of power-door fitted IC125s. Wise options would have been:
  • a dispensation to allow them to continue running with slam doors until the ex-Avanti Voyagers were available, instead of spending millions on upgrading them with power doors (they could maybe have reduced it to one daily diagram around now if XC had recenty gained two Voyagers instead of Grand Central, with the remaining IC125 following when Avanti start off-leasing more 221s)
  • getting a decent return on the investment in power doors by having them run until more electrification allows EMUs to replace them or cascade bi-modes from GWR, EMR and/or LNER
I'd argue the conversion to sliding doors were more in line with PSVAR compliance as well as Health & Safety regulations, not to throw money at them for no good reason.
 

daodao

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That is a reasonable arguement but what EMUs are we talking about here and, if we are to do what you suggest, why do we even have an XC franchise? The only off-lease EMUs I can think of (except perhaps ancient stuff like the 313s) are the class 379s, which are a long way from being InterCity units.

Now, if we had sidings full of 397s to play with (or indeed HS2 as (poorly) planned) then your argument would be stronger - do we then make everyone change at Birmingham and have Voyagers south from there with HS2 doing Birmingham to Manchester, Leeds and York? But, if we did that, why not have GWR run Devon/Cornwall-Bristol-Birmingham and Birmingham-Bournemouth and scrap the XC TOC altogether?
West Midlands Trains could retain their class 350/2 fleet, which they are intending to retire with the introduction of the class 730 Aventras, and use them as 8 car trains on a Birmingham-Manchester service to replace XC on this sector. The high capacity seating (3/2) would come in handy on this route. This provision is deemed adequate for the similar Birmingham-Liverpool service.

HS2 isn't going to be providing services from Birmingham to Leeds/York for at least 20 years, if ever, so XC would need to retain their routes south of Birmingham and via Derby. However, many XC services running north of Derby could terminate within Yorkshire and not run further north under the ECML wiring.
 
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Snow1964

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The big question for me is not the total number of carriages, (and the 35 extra voyagers carriages are effectively direct replacement for 35 HST carriages, even if they tended not to use more than couple of HST sets daily in recent years

I might be out of date but XC has
7 2car 170 sets 111-170 that are 24 years old
10 3car 170 sets 101-110 that are 25 years old
12 3car 170 sets that are 21-23 years old

Simple question, why does it think it needs 2car non-gangwayed units. Surely it should be looking at exchanging these 14 vehicles for more 221s

Then we move onto the voyager fleet

34 4car 220 that are 22-23 years old
4 4car 221 that are 21 years old
20 5car 221 that are 21-22 years old
7 5car 221 due from Avanti in 2024

There are another 15 5car 221s (2 on one year hire to GC, other 13 currently with Avanti, but available once 805 & 807 enter service)

I am not a great fan of the 4car units used singly, too low a capacity for many services. Although not ideal, having them coupled is acceptable (and if stock is short would possibly be ok to run single 4car units at extremes of routes, eg Winchester-Bournemouth or Plymouth-Penzance), providing double units for main core.

If we were being blunt (and GC took something else like 222s, but let's not speculate on GC plans here), then in theory there are 45 intermediate class 221 vehicles and 30 driving class 221 vehicles. I would be keen to do some reforms. How much could actually be negotiated with LeaseCo might turn out to kill my idea, but let's look anyway.

My reformed units (swapping but keeping same total number of vehicles) would be to lose the 2car 170s, XC should never be operating 2car units, and they don't work well for train managers and catering to be coupled to 3car either, as end up with lot of part time customer service. If can't get longer 170s then swap them for 221s

I would be lengthening some 5car units, ideally ending up with 29 6car 221s (and no 4car or 5car 221s). Losing some 4car 220s to compensate. Then use the 6car units on the shorter services to places like Manchester or Leeds, and the twin sets on long services to Scotland and South West. I don't like current scheme of using 4car and 5car interchangeably, and hopefully more care would be taken to keep 4car units on their own away from the Midlands core if they were 4car and 6car

I know it is not perfect, but if stuck with a diesel only fleet, (and in ideal world would be looking at electric fleets, or bi-modes) then trying to make best of bad job. I am not adverse to cutting a few voyager units for spare parts. It is ludicrous that often a 4car set is provided whilst at least dozen units are sitting at Three Rivers depot.

So my speculative solution, is to try and swap units and vehicles with off lease ones to get better formation mix
 

JonathanH

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I would be keen to do some reforms. How much could actually be negotiated with LeaseCo might turn out to kill my idea, but let's look anyway.
The layout of the depot and other practical consequences never seems to be given any thought when these six car ideas are touted.

A simple look at an aerial view of Central Riverside shows that it is fairly obviously built around the fact that the longest units it has to deal with have five coaches. The sidings are fifteen coaches long. The fueling points are for a maximum of five car units. The depot buildings are five coaches long.
 

Snow1964

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The layout of the depot and other practical consequences never seems to be given any thought when these six car ideas are touted.

A simple look at an aerial view of Central Riverside shows that it is fairly obviously built around the fact that the longest units it has to deal with have five coaches. The sidings are fifteen coaches long. The fueling points are for a maximum of five car units. The depot buildings are five coaches long.
Yes that never make sense to me, as the original aim was to lengthen some sets to 6car as patronage grew. That's why end cars are A and F, not lettered A to E. Surely provision should have been made for the proposed 6car sets when it was built. What happened?
 

RobShipway

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Simple question, why does it think it needs 2car non-gangwayed units. Surely it should be looking at exchanging these 14 vehicles for more 221s
As has been said many times, on the route certainly into Stansted Airport from Birmingham, neither class 220/221 Voyagers can be used due to the weight of the trains. In cases where 5 carriages are needed on services then the 2 car class 170 units act as the extra carriages. The other aspect is that depending on what platform the XC service to Stansted is routed too, it may only be able to take a max of a three carriage train and if it is thought that the loadings would be lower, then there is no point in wasting extra fuel, when a two carriage class 170 would be adequate over a three carriage class 170.
 

TheBigD

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Stansted Airport platform 2 is limited to 4 x 23m, eg 2 x 2 car 170s.

Whilst they're are specific instructions if 170s are required to either platforms 1 or 3, the reality is that these platforms are used by the half hourly London service and the (most hours) Norwich service and do not have sufficient spare capacity.

220s and 221s have been used vice 170s but only between Birmingham and Leicester.
222s have been over the rest of the route (test runs/diversions etc) as far as Shepreth Branch Jn (south of Cambridge). I'm not aware of them going to the airport but happy to be corrected.
 

Trainbike46

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Stansted Airport platform 2 is limited to 4 x 23m, eg 2 x 2 car 170s.

Whilst they're are specific instructions if 170s are required to either platforms 1 or 3, the reality is that these platforms are used by the half hourly London service and the (most hours) Norwich service and do not have sufficient spare capacity.

220s and 221s have been used vice 170s but only between Birmingham and Leicester.
222s have been over the rest of the route (test runs/diversions etc) as far as Shepreth Branch Jn (south of Cambridge). I'm not aware of them going to the airport but happy to be corrected.
The london service will go every 15 minutes soon, so from there will be even less scope for running the 170s into platform 1&3. In addition, when platform sharing with a london service the other service is also limited to 4 cars in length
 

Mark J

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So the Arriva XC franchise has been extended and fleet refurbishment is due at some point. However, the elephant in the room still hasn't been addressed - the lack of rolling stock and overcrowding.
 

Bletchleyite

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So the Arriva XC franchise has been extended and fleet refurbishment is due at some point. However, the elephant in the room still hasn't been addressed - the lack of rolling stock and overcrowding.

They are getting 7 more Voyagers from Avanti (basically a 1 for 1 replacement for Mk3 coaches in the HSTs). This isn't a lot but will add more capacity than the HSTs because they will be able to be diagrammed much more intensively.
 

The Ham

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They are getting 7 more Voyagers from Avanti (basically a 1 for 1 replacement for Mk3 coaches in the HSTs). This isn't a lot but will add more capacity than the HSTs because they will be able to be diagrammed much more intensively.

Indeed, it's a bit of a shame that a deal wasn't done to replace the 4 coach 221's with 5 coach ones, as that would helped a little more.

I suspect, however, that the numbers are down to ensuring ICWC can carry on using their in service whilst they introduce their new trains.

I wouldn't be surprised if the plan is to drip feed more capacity as the extra units become available, so the government can dine out on multiple announcements. It also allows them to have XC "prove" that extra trains equals extra passengers without it being too risky.
 

Rhydgaled

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I'd argue the conversion to sliding doors were more in line with PSVAR compliance as well as Health & Safety regulations, not to throw money at them for no good reason.
Did I say that the conversion to sliding doors was "throwing money at them for no good reason"? I don't think I did, and I certainly didn't in the bit you quoted. The conversion certainly delivered safety and accessibility benefits, but these will not have come cheap. The longer the trains run after conversion the greater the benefit from doing the conversion, without making the conversion cost more. My opinion is that the public benefit from running them with sliding doors does not justify the cost of conversion, but running them until 2030 would.

West Midlands Trains could retain their class 350/2 fleet, which they are intending to retire with the introduction of the class 730 Aventras, and use them as 8 car trains on a Birmingham-Manchester service to replace XC on this sector. The high capacity seating (3/2) would come in handy on this route. This provision is deemed adequate for the similar Birmingham-Liverpool service.
Are the 350s much different from 379s (from a passenger comfort point of view)? I would argue that neither is an InterCity product, and that the UK rail industry should be ashamed of the pathetic service offering where Birmingham-Liverpool through trains are concerned. On the latter point, the route has only one train per hour and even that is, at best, a semi-fast worked by outer-suburban stock - compare that to the two INTERCITY workings (admittedly desperately in need of longer units) per hour between Birmingham and Manchester.

That said, I have actually thought of some better-quality stock which apparently is going off-lease: the TPE mark 5s. Not that I think TPE should be losing them either (why didn't TPE's plan to deploy them on Manchester-Cleethorpes services work out, seems the most-sensible use of them to me?) but if they're standing around idle (and with DRS rumoured to be unwilling to start any new class 68 lease contracts elsewhere on this forum) is there something that could be done with mark 5s and 88s or 93s? I think there are 90s and 91s free, but of course the mark 5 driving trailers aren't going to be compatible with those are they. Still means making passengers change in Birmingham though.

I am not adverse to cutting a few voyager units
I am not adverse to scrapping some individual class 220 vehicles (particularly driving cars, which have relatively few seats once you've accounted for the cabs and accessible toilets), but don't see any need to scrap whole units for now.
I would be keen to do some reforms.
As would I, with my main aim being to eliminate 4-car operation making XC's HST* routes 5-car minimum. I would rather not mix the different bogie types (class 221 vs 220), partly to retain the possibility of restoring tilt on the 221s if it becomes desirable in future (not that I think this is likely). Thus there are not many options with the 220s, which are all 4-car to begin with. You could:
  • Scrap 15 driving cars (keeping two pairs of redundant driving cars just in case) and reform the remaining vehicles in 17 six-car sets
  • Leave them as-is but semi-permanently couple them (no physical mods, just couple them and leave them together except when necessary for maintenance) in pairs as 17 eight-car 'virtual sets'
Neither of those formations seem particularly ideal though - which would appear to be to have as many 7 (or possibly longer) coach trains with no intermedite cabs as possible and everything else being 5-car (with the possible exception of four semi-permanent 'virtual' 9-car class 221 'sets' formed by coupling the four 4-car 221s to four of the 5-car 221s). I had previously thought that the 222s and 220s were largely identical, with just different interior specs and train management software, and assumed that 220 and 222 vehicles could be mixed if the software was changed, but have previously been told on here that this isn't really the case. Could all the tilt equipment on a 221 vehicle be swapped with a 220 (eg. if it is only the bogie that's different) so that you could transfer vehicles between the two classes while maintaining a 'pure' fleet of 220s and 221s and no 'hybrids' with a mix of tilt and non-tilt coaches?

* Used in this context to mean literally 'High Speed Train' rather than specifically IC125s.

Indeed, it's a bit of a shame that a deal wasn't done to replace the 4 coach 221's with 5 coach ones, as that would helped a little more.

I suspect, however, that the numbers are down to ensuring ICWC can carry on using their in service whilst they introduce their new trains.

I wouldn't be surprised if the plan is to drip feed more capacity as the extra units become available, so the government can dine out on multiple announcements. It also allows them to have XC "prove" that extra trains equals extra passengers without it being too risky.
While that makes a degree of sense, and I hope the rest of the 221 fleet will indeed follow to XC once Avanti are done with them completely, they could equally have used the planned increase from two IC125 diagrams to four as a 'proving ground' for the concept of extra trains = extra passengers, instead of cutting capacity for a few months until Avanti are ready to release the first 7 units.
 

daodao

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Are the 350s much different from 379s (from a passenger comfort point of view)? I would argue that neither is an InterCity product, and that the UK rail industry should be ashamed of the pathetic service offering where Birmingham-Liverpool through trains are concerned. On the latter point, the route has only one train per hour and even that is, at best, a semi-fast worked by outer-suburban stock - compare that to the two INTERCITY workings (admittedly desperately in need of longer units) per hour between Birmingham and Manchester.

That said, I have actually thought of some better-quality stock which apparently is going off-lease: the TPE mark 5s. Not that I think TPE should be losing them either (why didn't TPE's plan to deploy them on Manchester-Cleethorpes services work out, seems the most-sensible use of them to me?) but if they're standing around idle (and with DRS rumoured to be unwilling to start any new class 68 lease contracts elsewhere on this forum) is there something that could be done with mark 5s and 88s or 93s? I think there are 90s and 91s free, but of course the mark 5 driving trailers aren't going to be compatible with those are they. Still means making passengers change in Birmingham though.
@Hardford

Compared to the noisy/cramped/claustrophobic/smelly Voyagers used on the Manchester-Birmingham service, the class 350s used on the Liverpool-Birmingham service are pleasanter/smoother/quieter and have a larger capacity per coach.

Emus are much more straightforward to operate than locomotive-hauled passenger trains. IMO, all of the latter should be withdrawn from Britain's railways asap to improve reliability and cut costs.
 

JonathanH

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Are the 350s much different from 379s (from a passenger comfort point of view)? I would argue that neither is an InterCity product, and that the UK rail industry should be ashamed of the pathetic service offering where Birmingham-Liverpool through trains are concerned. On the latter point, the route has only one train per hour and even that is, at best, a semi-fast worked by outer-suburban stock - compare that to the two INTERCITY workings (admittedly desperately in need of longer units) per hour between Birmingham and Manchester.
I really hope at least some 350s will hang around on Birmingham-Liverpool services. They are lovely things to travel on up the WCML - quiet, decent seating (except on the /2s which are going anyway), plenty of natural light. They have a way of making it seem effortless to accelerate multiple tons of metal up to 110mph, which I somehow doubt the Aventrae will be able to match.
Contrasting views on 350s between Birmingham and Liverpool.

There really is a lot of prejudice about Birmingham to Liverpool, particularly given CrossCountry looks like it is going to be run solely with Voyagers (and 170s) for the short to medium term. If CrossCountry had had four extra Voyagers and run them between Birmingham and Liverpool for the last 20 years on an hourly frequency I am not convinced people would be happy with that.

Something needs to serve Winsford, Hartford and Acton Bridge, and the demand and number of settlements solely between Crewe and Liverpool doesn't justify a dedicated stopper like it does between Crewe and Manchester. Long ago, Hartford used to be a stop in Intercity services.
 

Xavi

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Once the extra 221s arrive, Edinburgh to Plymouth may be served by the 4/8-car units with some splitting at Newcastle and Bristol.

Bristol/ Bournemouth - Manchester would be 5-car with more of the Bristol services extending to Exeter (as pre-Covid). Platform 2 at Exeter is being extended to enable this.

Plus 1 or 2 extra Newcastle to Reading diagrams too.
 

Snow1964

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Once the extra 221s arrive, Edinburgh to Plymouth may be served by the 4/8-car units with some splitting at Newcastle and Bristol.
One of the oddities of published XC contract is in the section on routes, there is provision for Bristol-Bath to be an add on. I suspect Bristol is not really a final destination for many, more an operationally convenient turning and servicing location

Bristol/ Bournemouth - Manchester would be 5-car with more of the Bristol services extending to Exeter (as pre-Covid). Platform 2 at Exeter is being extended to enable this.
Again, Exeter is never really a final destination from NE (except for handful of students), would be much more logical to end at Exmouth or Torbay

Plus 1 or 2 extra Newcastle to Reading diagrams too.
This is one that needs to be reevaluated, the East Coast is now so fast and frequent (and cheap compared to XC fares), that travelling this route rather than via London is bonkers.

What there is a stronger case for is a service that links Wessex (Bath or Salisbury area etc) with Oxford and Midlands. Probably not practical until Oxford is enlarged but continuing towards Bedford and Nottingham etc is going to be better than having a train from Midlands and North ending at Reading.

Whatever happens, I would like to see end to 4car workings, and I too think losing few driving cars and reforming into 6car units would be beneficial. Just the bodyshells, keep all the spare motors, bogies, seats etc. I still wonder if it would be economic to fabricate some new (non-driving) bodyshells and move all the equipment over for remaining life of about 20 years. For clarity not build whole new vehicle, literally unbolt all fittings and switch them over, a lot of it will be removed and refitted during full mid life refurbishment anyway.
 

RobShipway

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What there is a stronger case for is a service that links Wessex (Bath or Salisbury area etc) with Oxford and Midlands. Probably not practical until Oxford is enlarged but continuing towards Bedford and Nottingham etc is going to be better than having a train from Midlands and North ending at Reading.
Should the service between Wessex and Oxford come into being, then it is a service that should be provided by either GWR or SWR, it should not be a service provided bu XC.

XC should be providing services countrywide, not more regional local services between Bath Or Salisbury to Oxford. I know from past experience from having lived previously both in the Dorset area and Berkshire areas, that there is a demand for people to be travelling from these areas to the Midlands and to the North, especially where flight alternatives are not available.
 

Xavi

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Bristol is not really a final destination
Bristol will always be the terminus for some services on this route. You advocate cross-London connections, so change at Bristol for Bath must be viable.
Exeter is never really a final destination from NE
Again, lots of connections across Devon from here.
This is one that needs to be reevaluated, the East Coast is now so fast and frequent (and cheap compared to XC fares), that travelling this route rather than via London is bonkers.
Capacity and eye-watering high fares are the XC problems. More Birmingham to NE capacity is needed, irrespective of whether some passengers choose to travel via London.
 

irish_rail

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Bristol will always be the terminus for some services on this route. You advocate cross-London connections, so change at Bristol for Bath must be viable.

Again, lots of connections across Devon from here.

Capacity and eye-watering high fares are the XC problems. More Birmingham to NE capacity is needed, irrespective of whether some passengers choose to travel via London.
Exeter is an infinitely better destination than Bristol, as from Exeter numerous trains throughout Devon and Cornwall. Bristol is pretty useless in this regard, and in my view nothing should terminate there, Exeter is far more useful (or plymouth )
 

Xavi

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Exeter is an infinitely better destination than Bristol, as from Exeter numerous trains throughout Devon and Cornwall. Bristol is pretty useless in this regard, and in my view nothing should terminate there, Exeter is far more useful (or plymouth )
If only they’d allow XC to take the remaining Avanti Voyagers
 

JonathanH

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Capacity and eye-watering high fares are the XC problems. More Birmingham to NE capacity is needed, irrespective of whether some passengers choose to travel via London.
Trouble is that further increases in fares would almost certainly be required to pay increasing capacity.

There seems to be a naive view that more capacity could mean lower prices, because the DfT would allow fares to be slashed to fill that capacity. That doesn't seem likely. I note that GWR increased capacity and hiked the price of advance fares, and other operators are doing likewise.
 

Trainbike46

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Trouble is that further increases in fares would almost certainly be required to pay increasing capacity.
That's probably not true; If XC provided more capacity in a way that reduced per-seat costs you could cover the extra costs through increased passenger numbers

And given how inefficent short voyagers in particular are with staff and fuel, it should be doable to have cheaper per-seat costs
 

The Ham

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Trouble is that further increases in fares would almost certainly be required to pay increasing capacity.

There seems to be a naive view that more capacity could mean lower prices, because the DfT would allow fares to be slashed to fill that capacity. That doesn't seem likely. I note that GWR increased capacity and hiked the price of advance fares, and other operators are doing likewise.

The increase in advance fares could be down to changes in travel patterns, government guidance or down to inflation (just between 2021 and 2023 that's +17.7%), or a combination of two (or more).

Staff costs wouldn't change much, maintenance would, fuel would, and lease costs would.

I think it's why the government had allowed a few extra units, add it allows them to test to see if passenger numbers increase accordingly. If they do, then happy days, and we'll likely see a few more heading to XC. If not then the extra numbers are small, so won't cost the government much extra in subsidy.

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That's probably not true; If XC provided more capacity in a way that reduced per-seat costs you could cover the extra costs through increased passenger numbers

And given how inefficent short voyagers in particular are with staff and fuel, it should be doable to have cheaper per-seat costs

Indeed if a train of 200 seats cost 100 to run, getting an extra coach of 50 seats isn't necessarily going to cost 125 to run, it may only cost 117 to run (about 2/3rds of the "expected" costs if the costs were equally applied for the first coach as the fifth coach).

If you sell each ticket for 0.55 normally (182 seats or 91% full to break even), you could only need to sell 13 of those 50 seats to also break even (195 seats or 78% full).

However with far lower percentage of the seats needing to be filled to reach the break even point your trains will feel a lot least busy.
 
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Xavi

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Trouble is that further increases in fares would almost certainly be required to pay increasing capacity.

There seems to be a naive view that more capacity could mean lower prices, because the DfT would allow fares to be slashed to fill that capacity. That doesn't seem likely. I note that GWR increased capacity and hiked the price of advance fares, and other operators are doing likewise.
The naive view is within DfT - there’s no way that 4/5 coach trains are the most efficient balance of cost/revenue between the major centres served by XC.

Fares under control of XC have been hiked massively to curb demand over the past 20 years to the extent that now they are barely used. Instead, passengers split the GWR / LNER / MML fares, which sends ORCATS revenue elsewhere and distorts usage data. This suits DfT as it overstates performance of London TOCs to detriment of XC.
 
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