Wrexham redouble

[merlodlliw]

Bob if the redouble goes ahead as you wish can you really see more services added to the already good service from Wrexham?

Yes I can,one train an hour to Chester current is not sufficient in my opinion .As I mentioned in an earlier thread Rhyl gets up to four an hour,I am wondering why you consider Wrexhams huge growing conurbation to have an already good rail service. Rhyl is of course on a different line

 

[Squaddie]

Back to Wrexham, Welsh Government have just released house forecasts showing households in Wrexham are to soar 27% in 20 years with 15K new homes ,the largest figures of any County outside Cardiff, so perhaps the current WG redouble thinking will prove insufficient and needs an urgent review.

It's unfortunate that the Daily Post didn't provide a link to the original documents, or even undertake a slightly deeper analysis of the figures themselves, because, as always, I'd imagine that the devil is in the detail.

Wrexham may well be forecast to have the second-highest increase in the number of households of any county in Wales, but there may be other towns and communities that are forecast to see greater growth. I'm thinking particularly of the towns in the Cardiff valleys and Vale of Glamorgan: significant growth in these towns, alongside a projected growth of 41% in the number of households in Cardiff itself, might well justify spending more of the available transport budget on improving services in and around the capital city at the expense of the north.

Secondly, the report highlights the projected increase in the number of households, not population. Most of the increase in the number of households in Wales between 2008 and 2013 was due to a decrease in the size of the average household, and there is no reason to believe that this won't continue to be the case. It is even possible (though unlikely) that a 27% increase in the number of households in Wrexham might translate to no increase in population whatsoever.

Without access to the full figures, it's simply not possible to make any sort of assessment of likely changes in demand for rail services in Wrexham.

 

[quarella]

Is there a need for an increased train service between Wrexham and Chester when from 0530 to 2330 approx there is a bus service at it's least frequent every half hour increasing to every 12 minutes between 0630 and 1830 with leather seats, free Wi-fi and power points serving Chester city centre and the not centrally located railway station.

 

[Arglwydd Golau]

Is there a need for an increased train service between Wrexham and Chester when from 0530 to 2330 approx there is a bus service at it's least frequent every half hour increasing to every 12 minutes between 0630 and 1830 with leather seats, free Wi-fi and power points serving Chester city centre and the not centrally located railway station.

Yes, Merlodlliw has mentioned this bus before. If it is well used then the trains would have to be pretty special to take business away from it. wrexham station could also do with some more parking spaces - it has less than Rhyl or Bangor - the only time I have driven to Wrexham for a train it was full (probably is every day)...luckily on that occasion I had enough time to find somewhere else to park.

 

[D1009]

As the train does the trip in less than half the time the bus takes, I can't see the bus having all that many through passengers.

Have any intermediate station reopenings been considered lately?

 

[kieron]

As the train does the trip in less than half the time the bus takes, I can't see the bus having all that many through passengers.

As the train is only hourly, it can sometimes be quicker to catch the 'bus through the villages rather than wait around for a train. The 'bus does have some important intermediate calls, such as Chester Business Park (which is nowhere near the railway, and is too spread out to be served by a station anyway).

Most people catching a train further afield won't use any 'bus, of course. They'll probably use a train-only journey planner and then drive to whichever station seems best for their needs.

If you're travelling from west of the bypass (and I have no idea where the new houses are supposed to be built), going via Wrexham probably doesn't appeal that much anyway.

 

[merlodlliw]

As the train does the trip in less than half the time the bus takes, I can't see the bus having all that many through passengers.

Have any intermediate station reopenings been considered lately?

The interchange Hub at Rossett is not in the current plan,however the WG Task Force Quango is keen on a stop near Chester Business Park,otherwise no.

Is there a need for an increased train service between Wrexham and Chester when from 0530 to 2330 approx there is a bus service at it's least frequent every half hour increasing to every 12 minutes between 0630 and 1830 with leather seats, free Wi-fi and power points serving Chester city centre and the not centrally located railway station.

A strange reply,for a Railway forum. One might say was there need for Sunday trains to Aberyswyth when buses ran between Salop & Aber on Sundays.

Yes, Merlodlliw has mentioned this bus before. If it is well used then the trains would have to be pretty special to take business away from it. wrexham station could also do with some more parking spaces - it has less than Rhyl or Bangor - the only time I have driven to Wrexham for a train it was full (probably is every day)...luckily on that occasion I had enough time to find somewhere else to park.

I agree parking is at a premium at Wrexham General,the site across the road as been taken by a Large Premier Inn, that's why the Rossett idea with loads of NR land available was proposed.Rhyl has a lot of space around the station on the up side no one wants to build on.

 

[jones_bangor]

The interchange Hub at Rossett is not in the current plan,however the WG Task Force Quango is keen on a stop near Chester Business Park,otherwise no.

I think there's a good case for at least a 1/2 hourly service from Wrexham - Chester (and vice versa). A dedicated 140 class or 153 might do the trick?

I thought the luxury bus with leather seats was also operated by Arriva?

 

[transmanche]

I think there's a good case for at least a 1/2 hourly service from Wrexham - Chester. A dedicated 140 class or 153 might do the trick?

There's probably just as good a case for a 2tph service all the way between Shrewsbury and Chester.

 

[Gareth Marston]

It's unfortunate that the Daily Post didn't provide a link to the original documents, or even undertake a slightly deeper analysis of the figures themselves, because, as always, I'd imagine that the devil is in the detail.

Wrexham may well be forecast to have the second-highest increase in the number of households of any county in Wales, but there may be other towns and communities that are forecast to see greater growth. I'm thinking particularly of the towns in the Cardiff valleys and Vale of Glamorgan: significant growth in these towns, alongside a projected growth of 41% in the number of households in Cardiff itself, might well justify spending more of the available transport budget on improving services in and around the capital city at the expense of the north.

Secondly, the report highlights the projected increase in the number of households, not population. Most of the increase in the number of households in Wales between 2008 and 2013 was due to a decrease in the size of the average household, and there is no reason to believe that this won't continue to be the case. It is even possible (though unlikely) that a 27% increase in the number of households in Wrexham might translate to no increase in population whatsoever.

Without access to the full figures, it's simply not possible to make any sort of assessment of likely changes in demand for rail services in Wrexham.

The figures have only been given out at unitary authority level so your right to say proceed with caution making generalisations from them. You need this info at what's known as medium super output level and then where in those areas and the relationship or otherwise to stations.
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Is there a need for an increased train service between Wrexham and Chester when from 0530 to 2330 approx there is a bus service at it's least frequent every half hour increasing to every 12 minutes between 0630 and 1830 with leather seats, free Wi-fi and power points serving Chester city centre and the not centrally located railway
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Is there a need for an increased train service between Wrexham and Chester when from 0530 to 2330 approx there is a bus service at it's least frequent every half hour increasing to every 12 minutes between 0630 and 1830 with leather seats, free Wi-fi and power points serving Chester city centre and the not centrally located railway station.

Either you think folk only travel between Wrexham and Chester or your a great believer in multi modal journeys.

 

[jones_bangor]

There's probably just as good a case for a 2tph service all the way between Shrewsbury and Chester.

Why not a circular service....Chester - Wrexham - Shrewsbury (reverse) - Chester (and an opposite train). This would bring big connectivity benefits all round. ..

 

[D1009]

Having reread the earlier posts in this thread I am still confused as to what purpose the additional capacity created by the redoubling might eventually be used.

 

[transmanche]

Having reread the earlier posts in this thread I am still confused as to what purpose the additional capacity created by the redoubling might eventually be used.

It's not just about additional capacity, there will be speed improvements (90mph running?) and with the speed improvements planned between Shrewsbury and Gobowen, it'll cut a nice chunk off the Shrewsbury-Chester journey time.

Plus it will allow more flexibility in scheduling and service recovery. At present you can only have one train at a time between Saltney Junction and Wrexham. After the work, you'll only be able to have one train at a time between (I believe) Rhosset and Wrexham. This could reduce the likelihood of a late-running southbound train delaying a northbound service (and vice versa).

 

[edwin_m]

Doesn't the ability to pass between Chester and Wrexham also eliminate some long timetabled waits at Chester or Shrewsbury? I was on a Holyhead-Birmingham from Chester last week that came in 20min before departure time.

 

[D1009]

In that case I find it amazing that a business case can be made for redoubling even a 5 mile stretch of railway, with presumably additional pointwork and signalling, but with no detailed plans for any additional services, but I suppose that's the difference between devolved government and England.

 

[transmanche]

In that case I find it amazing that a business case can be made for redoubling even a 5 mile stretch of railway, with presumably additional pointwork and signalling, but with no detailed plans for any additional services, but I suppose that's the difference between devolved government and England.

Well; firstly there are no definite plans in the public domain. Secondly, the benefits in linespeed improvements, timetabling flexibility and improved service recovery, (in my eyes at least) more than justify the redoubling.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Well; firstly there are no definite plans in the public domain. Secondly, the benefits in linespeed improvements, timetabling flexibility and improved service recovery, (in my eyes at least) more than justify the redoubling.

The funding body - Welsh Government have it under the banner of north to south (Wales) journey time improvements with several documents seen with an aspiration for an hourly service between Holyhead and Cardiff.

However locally in Wrexham the main flow of movement is toward North West England, at least the additional capacity and flexibility is toward where the demand is if not the proposed trains.

As far as further south is concerned there is a long standing grievance in that trains bound for Wrexham and Chester depart Shrewsbury one minute before trains from the Cambrian arrive, the increased flexibility offers the prospect of this changing especially if they get round to running a tt based on etcs timings instead of the current retb one.

 

[The Planner]

NR won't have even entertained it unless the WG stumped up the cash under its N-S journey time scheme. I imagine the business case is weak at best.

 

[Gareth Marston]

NR won't have even entertained it unless the WG stumped up the cash under its N-S journey time scheme. I imagine the business case is weak at best.

Funny how extra rolling stock across ex a Regional Railways franchises is dismissed as not having a business case as fares are too low etc etc yet there's always infrastructure £ Millions going around, Northern hub, Todmorden Curve, electrification etc

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Cotswold (done) and Kemble (in progress) redoubling happened without any specific extra services planned.
They were justified because of the constraints the single lines imposed on the timetable, performance, and growth.
Gowerton is similar but also Loughor Viaduct needed rebuilding anyway so it made sense to deliver extra capacity at the same time.
Saltney redoubling will be the catalyst for other developments (maybe the Halton curve).

Cautionary tale: the last infrastructure upgrade in the area was the 90mph line speed upgrade west of Chester, at a reported £20m (also provided by the WG).
I'm not sure this delivered value for money - journey times did not come down much, and a lot of the line is still stuck at 75mph.

 

[TDK]

Yes I can,one train an hour to Chester current is not sufficient in my opinion .As I mentioned in an earlier thread Rhyl gets up to four an hour,I am wondering why you consider Wrexhams huge growing conurbation to have an already good rail service. Rhyl is of course on a different line

Rhyl is a major holiday resort Bob and merits it's service I feel 1TPH is adequate and the loadings from Wrexham merit this, I have never seen the platforms crowded. What do you think? 2 TPH? The money could be spent on better ideas. I work these trains and it is very rare that they are crowded with folks getting on at Wrexham. You cannot compare Wrexham with somewhere like Rhyl but you could with Shotton I suppose and many of the services serving Rhyl do not stop there as there is not the demand.
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In that case I find it amazing that a business case can be made for redoubling even a 5 mile stretch of railway, with presumably additional pointwork and signalling, but with no detailed plans for any additional services, but I suppose that's the difference between devolved government and England.

Good comment, I live in Wrexham and I think it is a complete waste of taxpayers money to redouble the line unless a good positive business case is submitted to merit the cost, unfortunately unless it is subsidised by the WG I cannot see any profit for ATW in the scheme of things with the extra cost of running extra services. The money should be spent elsewhere

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Rhyl is a major holiday resort

Not since about 1964...

But it's certainly true that population size does not necessarily reflect usage.
Big swathes of the northern towns and cities turned their back on the railway in the 60s and have not come back.
Meanwhile seemingly unpromising areas like the Cotswolds, Devon and the North Wales coast kept their traffic up and deliver more passengers than their modest population suggests.
They are simply "more rail-minded", and travel more by train.

Also, have a look round and listen on the train.
There are far more students and non-English speakers travelling than there were.
These groups seem to use the train more than the resident population.
Demographics is a complex business.

Wrexham pop 42,000, usage 2012/13 - 657K, essentially flat (combining both stations)
Rhyl pop 25,000, usage 2012/13 - 612K, down 3.5%
Chester pop 120,000, usage 2012/13 - 3011K, up 1.8% (plus 805K interchanges)

 

[edwin_m]

Also, have a look round and listen on the train.
There are far more students and non-English speakers travelling than there were.
These groups seem to use the train more than the resident population.
Demographics is a complex business.

Apart from the last bit, you're sounding alarmingly like Nigel Farage!

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Apart from the last bit, you're sounding alarmingly like Nigel Farage!

Absolutely not, I'm from the opposite persuasion...
But it's undoubtedly true there are more foreign accents about.
You just have to listen to the mobile phone conversations.
Tourism and education are growth sectors of the economy.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Rhyl is a major holiday resort Bob and merits it's service I feel 1TPH is adequate and the loadings from Wrexham merit this, I have never seen the platforms crowded. What do you think? 2 TPH? The money could be spent on better ideas. I work these trains and it is very rare that they are crowded with folks getting on at Wrexham. You cannot compare Wrexham with somewhere like Rhyl but you could with Shotton I suppose and many of the services serving Rhyl do not stop there as there is not the demand.
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Good comment, I live in Wrexham and I think it is a complete waste of taxpayers money to redouble the line unless a good positive business case is submitted to merit the cost, unfortunately unless it is subsidised by the WG I cannot see any profit for ATW in the scheme of things with the extra cost of running extra services. The money should be spent elsewhere

Cost benefit analysis was developed in the 70's and 80's by right wing economists primarily as a methodology to justify road construction I.e we predict lots of extra traffic therefore there will be many benefits of just a few pounds that add up to sum greater than the cost of building hey presto it must be a good thing! That this methodology doesn't stack up elsewhere is not surprising as it's not designed to justify rail investment! See HS2 problems therefore talking of business cases is rather pointless.

 

[transmanche]

Cost benefit analysis was developed in the 70's and 80's by right wing economists primarily as a methodology to justify road construction

And there was me believing it was created by Jules Dupuit in the 1840s, refined by Alfred Marshall in the late 19th century and in common usage by the 1930s.

I'll have to have words with my university lecturers...

 

[Gareth Marston]

And there was me believing it was created by Jules Dupuit in the 1840s, refined by Alfred Marshall in the late 19th century and in common usage by the 1930s.

I'll have to have words with my university lecturers...

Perhaps I should have said cost benefit analysis as used by transport planners in the UK.....though my general point about HS2 is right the DFT was panned by for making it all about values for time savings for business travelers in its original business's case of course they stuck HS2 into the road bias model where much emphasis is made on notional monetary values of time savings.

And look at all the road schemes that have been resurrected under the coalition they've
had to have a massive projection of increased road usage despite the reality of declining/static travel levels over the past few years as they can't get the figures to stack using CBA given the huge costs of road construction. The Welsh Government when challenged about the poor ratios for the heads of valleys dualling project said that CBA only formed part of the decision making -it will economically regenerate the area apparently. I'm sure Jules and Alfred would love all the shenanigans around modern use of CBA, TDK will never get his clean positive business case.

 

[edwin_m]

Cost benefit analysis was developed in the 70's and 80's by right wing economists primarily as a methodology to justify road construction I.e we predict lots of extra traffic therefore there will be many benefits of just a few pounds that add up to sum greater than the cost of building hey presto it must be a good thing! That this methodology doesn't stack up elsewhere is not surprising as it's not designed to justify rail investment! See HS2 problems therefore talking of business cases is rather pointless.

Victoria Line?

 

[Gareth Marston]

Victoria Line?

Numbers game, Central London tube users, ever increasing traffic levels....Everything counts in large amounts as the Depeche Mode song goes.

 

[Arglwydd Golau]

Absolutely not, I'm from the opposite persuasion...
But it's undoubtedly true there are more foreign accents about.
You just have to listen to the mobile phone conversations.
Tourism and education are growth sectors of the economy.

I agree with that (and I'm definitely not of the Nigel Farage persuasion either).., every time I catch a train from Bangor there is, without fail, a group of Chinese students waiting....but why not? There are many Chinese students in Bangor these days...even when I caught an extra unadvertised Ruggex a couple of years ago there were two young Chinese waiting.
I caught a packed train along the coast on Friday, it was running a few minutes late and I only just managed to get on, there were thirty people standing in the vestibule - 2-car 175) didn't manage to get a seat until the train left the Junction (some people still standing) and most people got off at Bangor. Friday pm is certainly student travel time.