Wrexham redouble

[Gareth Marston]

The thinking behind the hourly Holyhead to Cardiff was of course a political aspiration by the then Minister,who also got Gerald running plus the flights from Valley to Cardiff,times have changed and the current Minister who lives in Gower is not as O Fey of the Cardiff/Holyheads asperation,plus with all respect to the current Minister,she is now looking at the North and appears not too happy with the advice's she was given by her staff & others, a major shock has occurred when the Minister was informed by a very informative AM that cutting the dueling back by two miles prevents any extra services being dreamed up by her North Wales Think Tank Quango, IE Liverpools & Manchesters from Wrexham,that is if the HST idea goes ahead, anyhow Bernyarms which in your estimation are the main centres along the route,as the HST thinking is semi fast.In my opinion years ago money was no object for asperations,however 2014 is different.

There are a couple of big unanswered questions about the hourly Cardiff to Holyhead proposal firstly what paths will they occupy and how will this effect other services along the route? ATW have an aspiration to reduce the time of the Cardiff to manchester service to under 3 hours, already some of these services skip stop south of Shrewsbury and the current Holyheads have stopped at Craven Arms and Church Stretton to fill the gaps. If your having two semi fasts an hour up the Marches one to Holyhead and one to Manchester how do CA and CS fit in? Pointypool and New Inn fits the awkward to serve bill in this scenario also. North of Shrewsbury will these new trains clash and have to take the paths of the current BHM INTL to Holyhead trains? You may have to end up finding a replacement local service, the same would apply west of Llandudno Junction.

Secondly what will the impact be on the business case for north wales coast electrification? I doubt it could be made if 30/40% of the services on the coast would have to remain diesel powered.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

But it still facilitates anyone travelling between the main centres along the route - that surely would be a reasonable number of people.

One Intermediate flow that we do know the usage figures for is travel to Wrexham from the other North Wales Unitary Authorities, ORR and Welsh Government stats show that there 172K journeys per annum from Flintshire though undoubtedly these are predominantly on the Bidston line. The other 5 UA's contribute 45K between them and these include anyone from the Cambrian Coast pRt of Gwynedd that travels via Shrewsbury. That averages the low sixties each way a day.

 

[jones_bangor]

The thinking behind the hourly Holyhead to Cardiff was of course a political aspiration by the then Minister,who also got Gerald running plus the flights from Valley to Cardiff,times have changed and the current Minister who lives in Gower is not as O Fey of the Cardiff/Holyheads asperation,

That statement is plainly incorrect. I think you could be taken more seriously if you'd bother to check chronological events before posting your "facts".

The decision to replace the service pattern operated by "First North Western" that focused on North Wales - Crewe, Birmingham and Manchester occurred when the new All-Wales franchise came into being in 2003. This was under Labour both at Cardiff Bay and Westminster.

The aspirational Minister you refer to - Ieuan Wyn Jones - was Deputy Minister from 2007 to 2011. The Premier "Gerald" service was introduced, by his department, as an enhancement to existing North - South services.

There are a couple of big unanswered questions about the hourly Cardiff to Holyhead proposal firstly what paths will they occupy and how will this effect other services along the route? ATW have an aspiration to reduce the time of the Cardiff to manchester service to under 3 hours, already some of these services skip stop south of Shrewsbury and the current Holyheads have stopped at Craven Arms and Church Stretton to fill the gaps. If your having two semi fasts an hour up the Marches one to Holyhead and one to Manchester how do CA and CS fit in? Pointypool and New Inn fits the awkward to serve bill in this scenario also. North of Shrewsbury will these new trains clash and have to take the paths of the current BHM INTL to Holyhead trains? You may have to end up finding a replacement local service, the same would apply west of Llandudno Junction.

I think local services west of Llandudno, as there used to be once upon a time, would be very popular. Maybe the current South Wales Metro plans could improve services between Abergavenny and Newport / Cardiff - again a popular move I'm sure.

 

[merlodlliw]

That statement is plainly incorrect. I think you could be taken more seriously if you'd bother to check chronological events before posting your "facts".

The decision to replace the service pattern operated by "First North Western" that focused on North Wales - Crewe, Birmingham and Manchester occurred when the new All-Wales franchise came into being in 2003. This was under Labour both at Cardiff Bay and Westminster.

The aspirational Minister you refer to - Ieuan Wyn Jones - was Deputy Minister from 2007 to 2011. The Premier "Gerald" service was introduced, by his department, as an enhancement to existing North - South services.

I would appreciate your knowledge on the All Wales Franchise circa 2003,I was fully under the impression it was Arriva Trains Wales(Wales & Borders franchise) that commenced the bi hourly Holyhead/Cardiff services.It was never an All Wales Franchise,Wales was part of the Wales & Borders franchise and still is.
It was Ian Wyn Jones himself that launched the Premier Service,along with the Air Service(Wagair)

 

[berneyarms]

There are a couple of big unanswered questions about the hourly Cardiff to Holyhead proposal firstly what paths will they occupy and how will this effect other services along the route? ATW have an aspiration to reduce the time of the Cardiff to manchester service to under 3 hours, already some of these services skip stop south of Shrewsbury and the current Holyheads have stopped at Craven Arms and Church Stretton to fill the gaps. If your having two semi fasts an hour up the Marches one to Holyhead and one to Manchester how do CA and CS fit in? Pointypool and New Inn fits the awkward to serve bill in this scenario also. North of Shrewsbury will these new trains clash and have to take the paths of the current BHM INTL to Holyhead trains? You may have to end up finding a replacement local service, the same would apply west of Llandudno Junction.

Secondly what will the impact be on the business case for north wales coast electrification? I doubt it could be made if 30/40% of the services on the coast would have to remain diesel powered.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


One Intermediate flow that we do know the usage figures for is travel to Wrexham from the other North Wales Unitary Authorities, ORR and Welsh Government stats show that there 172K journeys per annum from Flintshire though undoubtedly these are predominantly on the Bidston line. The other 5 UA's contribute 45K between them and these include anyone from the Cambrian Coast pRt of Gwynedd that travels via Shrewsbury. That averages the low sixties each way a day.

Maybe you have a mix of stopping and semi-fast services on both routes - every alternate hour the Manchester service is semi-fast, the other it's stopping, and the same for Holyhead. That way you have an hourly stopping and an hourly semi-fast service between Cardiff and Shrewsbury.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The big change was in 2004 when ATW introduced their standard pattern timetable.
The FNW Holyhead-Crewe-Birmingham through trains ceased running south of Crewe in 2002 when the WCML fast lines were being rebuilt between Crewe and Stafford.
They did not come back when the WCML reopened, and the second hourly LM Liverpool-Birmingham essentially now fills that gap.
Actually, both ATW and VT still run one train a day over this route, early and late.
The VT working is in order to get units to/from Barton for maintenance.

 

[Gareth Marston]

That statement is plainly incorrect. I think you could be taken more seriously if you'd bother to check chronological events before posting your "facts".

The decision to replace the service pattern operated by "First North Western" that focused on North Wales - Crewe, Birmingham and Manchester occurred when the new All-Wales franchise came into being in 2003. This was under Labour both at Cardiff Bay and Westminster.

The aspirational Minister you refer to - Ieuan Wyn Jones - was Deputy Minister from 2007 to 2011. The Premier "Gerald" service was introduced, by his department, as an enhancement to existing North - South services.




I think local services west of Llandudno, as there used to be once upon a time, would be very popular. Maybe the current South Wales Metro plans could improve services between Abergavenny and Newport / Cardiff - again a popular move I'm sure.

Network Rail have stated that the Marches south of Shrewsbury will be re- signalled and controlled from Cardiff on the basis of paths for two semi fast or fast passenger trains an hour between Shrewsbury and Newport , a path for a freight per hour between Shrewsbury and Newport, an hourly stopping path between Newport and Abergavenny and an hourly stopping train path between Shrewsbury and Craven Arms.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Maybe you have a mix of stopping and semi-fast services on both routes - every alternate hour the Manchester service is semi-fast, the other it's stopping, and the same for Holyhead. That way you have an hourly stopping and an hourly semi-fast service between Cardiff and Shrewsbury.

Very hard to reconcile with clock face departures and paths through junctions elsewhere. The Manchesters have the problem of Crewes inflexibility since the 1985 re build that will always drive the timings further south.

 

[TDK]

ATW have a contract which they are delivering (at a profit).
I don't think the relationship is anything like you describe.
For a start WG hasn't any money to throw at rail.
The franchise funding was specified long ago by the SRA (with huge UK taxpayer subsidy).
WG just manage it on a day-to-day basis.

Who paid for the 158/150 refurb?
Who pays for the WAG express?
Who contributes to training?
Who paid for the CCTV?

This list is a lot longer than this.

Without the government subsidy no TOC would make any profit

What part do WG manage?

 

[northwichcat]

The big change was in 2004 when ATW introduced their standard pattern timetable.

2004 was when some of the old FNW diagrams (which included both services in the FNW and ATW franchises) ended giving ATW more flexibility but meaning more ECS runs were required.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Who paid for the 158/150 refurb?
Who pays for the WAG express?
Who contributes to training?
Who paid for the CCTV?
This list is a lot longer than this.
Without the government subsidy no TOC would make any profit
What part do WG manage?

The franchise spec and revenue/subsidy profile were fixed in 2003 (SRA).
WG took over the management of the franchise in 2007 but picked up the existing DfT finances to go with it.
They can and do vary the spec slightly and provide top-up where necessary (not just for Wales), but it is a flea-bite compared to leasing extra stock long term.
The extra funding is similar to that provided to other TOCs by the English PTEs.

 

[merlodlliw]

Who paid for the 158/150 refurb?
Who pays for the WAG express?
Who contributes to training?
Who paid for the CCTV?

You mention the WAG Express, it will be interesting to see if the Minister has capital to continue the hiring in of the stock when the £3.5Millions,refurb & hire runs out in 2015, this was on top of the Annual running costs paid to ATW each year of £1.4million out of WG revenue account.
However Wagair contract also ends in 2015,as WG now own Cardiff Airport bought out of reserves for £50 million,will they cull this flight,in my opinion extravagance in favor of rail,I wonder.

 

[Gareth Marston]

You mention the WAG Express, it will be interesting to see if the Minister has capital to continue the hiring in of the stock when the £3.5Millions,refurb & hire runs out in 2015, this was on top of the Annual running costs paid to ATW each year of £1.4million out of WG revenue account.
However Wagair contract also ends in 2015,as WG now own Cardiff Airport bought out of reserves for £50 million,will they cull this flight,in my opinion extravagance in favor of rail,I wonder.

The Minister has set the oap free bus pass grant in stone until 2017 with three years funding with no review until safely after next election. What political capital is their for Welsh Labour in keeping Iuean Air and Iuean Rail going? There safely out the way 12 months before poll day.

 

[merlodlliw]

The Minister has set the oap free bus pass grant in stone until 2017 with three years funding with no review until safely after next election. What political capital is their for Welsh Labour in keeping Iuean Air and Iuean Rail going? There safely out the way 12 months before poll day.

I agree, I wonder how much it costs to lease the Class 67s,DVTs and two sets of mark 3 carriages, getting rid of Wagair could pay for them.

 

[swcovas]

I agree, I wonder how much it costs to lease the Class 67s,DVTs and two sets of mark 3 carriages, getting rid of Wagair could pay for them.

Just curious, but does anyone know how many passengers actually use Wagair? We do know now that the airport bus link (another costly subsidised service) is used by an average number of less than 4 per service.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Just curious, but does anyone know how many passengers actually use Wagair? We do know now that the airport bus link (another costly subsidised service) is used by an average number of less than 4 per service.

We'll they use a 25 sweater once a day Monday to Saturday in each direction so even with 100% loading in a year less than Cardiff Centrals stations 35 K per day footfall.

 

[D1009]

We'll they use a 25 sweater once a day Monday to Saturday in each direction so even with 100% loading in a year less than Cardiff Centrals stations 35 K per day footfall.

If it's 100% loaded I suspect it costs the Welsh economy less to run than Gerald.

 

[merlodlliw]

If it's 100% loaded I suspect it costs the Welsh economy less to run than Gerald.

Loading as no effect on the WG funding,flights are advertised from as little as £19.

The last costings paid by WG were a five year deal,only one Airline applied when the other went broke.

WG pay the rental of Valley Airport at £500K per year for the two weekday flights a day.
WG pay the Airline Company over £5Million,close to £6M for the five year deal.
What costs are paid by WG at Cardiff are unknown.

Gerald gets around £1.4Millions a year subsidy from WG to cover open access running costs,£3.5 Millions was paid by WG for hire of stock & refurb this ends in 2015,I think it was a three year deal without looking it up.

Both operators ATW & CityAir keep all fares.

 

[pablo]

We'll they use a 25 sweater once a day Monday to Saturday in each direction so even with 100% loading in a year less than Cardiff Centrals stations 35 K per day footfall.

I think the only sweaters over this are on this forum. More misinformation being pedalled.
They're 19 seaters; both the Do 228 operated previously by Manx2 and now the Jetstream 31 operated by their sucessor Citywings.
Anglesey gets two flights/day each way to Cardiff and seasonal flights to the IoM. Nowt on Saturdays or Sundays. http://www.anglesey-today.com/anglesey-airport.html with promises of more destinations. No doubt, APD comes on top of the quoted fares. You takes your choice. If it's any use it will grow; otherwise it will die.

Mods please note: Summat wrong on the board; quotes are being ascribed to the wrong originator.

 

[jones_bangor]

Gerald gets around £1.4Millions a year subsidy from WG to cover open access running costs,£3.5 Millions was paid by WG for hire of stock & refurb this ends in 2015,I think it was a three year deal without looking it up.

The Gerald / Premier service has now effectively replaced a franchised working (1716) and this is a very positive move and undone a short sighted political move to move the departure to after 6pm......

If savings had to be made, then the 1st class would be the sacrificial lamb I would suggest, rather than the whole service.

 

[merlodlliw]

The Gerald / Premier service has now effectively replaced a franchised working (1716) and this is a very positive move and undone a short sighted political move to move the departure to after 6pm......

If savings had to be made, then the 1st class would be the sacrificial lamb I would suggest, rather than the whole service.

I fully agree,however Gerald is still an open access service and will require WG funds to hire in stock and pay for the running from 2015,note Gerald is only a five day service & ATW wont fund it. The the Welsh Government, is short sighted in many areas of rail in my opinion,especially the culling of the Wrexham Redouble,which is what this thread is all about.
I agree chop the little used First extravagance, but politicians tend to look after themselves.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I fully agree,however Gerald is still an open access service and will require WG funds to hire in stock and pay for the running from 2015,note Gerald is only a five day service & ATW wont fund it. The the Welsh Government, is short sighted in many areas of rail in my opinion,especially the culling of the Wrexham Redouble,which is what this thread is all about.
I agree chop the little used First extravagance, but politicians tend to look after themselves.

The problem as explained to me by a source in Welsh Government is that the schemes in the national transport plans have always cost more than the budget available to build them. Something was always going to have to give regardless, Wrexham getting what it has is something of a victory. If not completely what folk want. There's plenty of road schemes that are not going ahead.

Gerald an WAGAir are out the revenue budget preceding the choices the Minister will have to make will be what to do with Fishguard extras that only have 6 months of funding left.

 

[merlodlliw]

The problem as explained to me by a source in Welsh Government is that the schemes in the national transport plans have always cost more than the budget available to build them. Something was always going to have to give regardless, Wrexham getting what it has is something of a victory. If not completely what folk want. There's plenty of road schemes that are not going ahead.

Gerald an WAGAir are out the revenue budget preceding the choices the Minister will have to make will be what to do with Fishguard extras that only have 6 months of funding left.

I fully agree the Wrexham semi redouble is part victory,we stuck at it & have not given up on the two miles culled.The Minister was under intense pressure from all quarters,including her own AMs and the First Ministers scrutiny committee who demanded to know what was going on,this was televised & I am aware some interesting misinterpretation of the National Transport Plan is about to come to light,effecting Wrexham & North Wales.

On another point I visited Rhyl last week,I was stunned to find out four trains an hour depart from Rhyl to Chester twice a day,with three on most hours,four trains in one hour to Chester is amazing for a small seaside town in Winter along with the other small towns on the Coast.I always thought three an hour was a lot.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I fully agree the Wrexham semi redouble is part victory,we stuck at it & have not given up on the two miles culled.The Minister was under intense pressure from all quarters,including her own AMs and the First Ministers scrutiny committee who demanded to know what was going on,this was televised & I am aware some interesting misinterpretation of the National Transport Plan is about to come to light,effecting Wrexham & North Wales.

On another point I visited Rhyl last week,I was stunned to find out four trains an hour depart from Rhyl to Chester twice a day,with three on most hours,four trains in one hour to Chester is amazing for a small seaside town in Winter along with the other small towns on the Coast.I always thought three an hour was a lot.

It's partly due to having two separate operators, VT and ATW in days gone by the Eustons would take precedence and the other services work around it, now we have the other trains having to be on tap all day long with the Eustons on top, there's also the north to South Wales increases in the mix as we'll. in terms of trains per day the Llandudno Junction to Chester section is very well served all year round, perhaps too we'll in the winter and not enough capacity in the summer.

 

[merlodlliw]

It's partly due to having two separate operators, VT and ATW in days gone by the Eustons would take precedence and the other services work around it, now we have the other trains having to be on tap all day long with the Eustons on top, there's also the north to South Wales increases in the mix as we'll. in terms of trains per day the Llandudno Junction to Chester section is very well served all year round, perhaps too we'll in the winter and not enough capacity in the summer.

The train I caught back to Chester was lightly loaded,albeit just after 3pm,I would agree ,too much capacity in Winter & not enough in Summer, but the same goes for all seaside resorts.nearer to home asking for more services on the busy all year round Wrexham to Chester line is a most reasonable request for a well populated area.

As for the Fishguard extras, the Minister will probably look more favorably at them,as they are close to her Consituency,the loading's will be interesting.

 

[Gareth Marston]

The train I caught back to Chester was lightly loaded,albeit just after 3pm,I would agree ,too much capacity in Winter & not enough in Summer, but the same goes for all seaside resorts.nearer to home asking for more services on the busy all year round Wrexham to Chester line is a most reasonable request for a well populated area.

As for the Fishguard extras, the Minister will probably look more favorably at them,as they are close to her Consituency,the loading's will be interesting.

According to the footfall figures just released we're looking at around 25,000 extra in 2012/2013. I'm sure we'd have had one hell of lot more on Cambrian if the money had spent here.

 

[merlodlliw]

According to the footfall figures just released we're looking at around 25,000 extra in 2012/2013. I'm sure we'd have had one hell of lot more on Cambrian if the money had spent here.

That sounds like around 100 or so a day X 5. Does that mean 50 access & 50 egress?, figures can be played with ,more trains the bigger the footfall it seems.

 

[Gareth Marston]

That sounds like around 100 or so a day X 5. Does that mean 50 access & 50 egress?, figures can be played with ,more trains the bigger the footfall it seems.

The baseline footfall for the harbour station was in the mid twenty thou sounds, the combined footfall for the harbour and reopened station was c50k. That's exits and entry's. There's 10 extra trains a day just over 3000 a year it works out at 8 extra passengers per extra train. By comparison Aberystwth has 46 footfalls per train.

I recall it was £1.4 million in subsidy per annum for the trial that's £56 each passenger!

 

[IanXC]

Mods please note: Summat wrong on the board; quotes are being ascribed to the wrong originator.

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[merlodlliw]

The baseline footfall for the harbour station was in the mid twenty thou sounds, the combined footfall for the harbour and reopened station was c50k. That's exits and entry's. There's 10 extra trains a day just over 3000 a year it works out at 8 extra passengers per extra train. By comparison Aberystwth has 46 footfalls per train.

I recall it was £1.4 million in subsidy per annum for the trial that's £56 each passenger!

Back to Wrexham, Welsh Government have just released house forecasts showing households in Wrexham are to soar 27% in 20 years with 15K new homes ,the largest figures of any County outside Cardiff, so perhaps the current WG redouble thinking will prove insufficient and needs an urgent review.

link,http://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/rethink-urged-wrexham-home-numbers-6755466

 

[TDK]

Back to Wrexham, Welsh Government have just released house forecasts showing households in Wrexham are to soar 27% in 20 years with 15K new homes ,the largest figures of any County outside Cardiff, so perhaps the current WG redouble thinking will prove insufficient and needs an urgent review.

link,http://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/rethink-urged-wrexham-home-numbers-6755466

Bob if the redouble goes ahead as you wish can you really see more services added to the already good service from Wrexham?

 

[swcovas]

the already good service from Wrexham?

I am waiting to see the response to THAT comment from interessted parties!!!!