Will the Class 172 be the last DMU for a while?

[cslusarc]

Given the Government's plans for electrification of the railway, do you think that British Rail Class 172 will be the only DMU built this decade (excluding light-weight railcars like diesel powered trams and the Parry People Mover)?

Rail Electrification Schedule:
•Manchester to Newton-le-Willows (2013)
Garngad Chord & Cumbernauld Electrification (2013)
•Newton-le-Willows to Liverpool Lime Street, plus Huyton to Wigan (2014)
•Blackpool to Preston (2015)
•Manchester to Euxton Junction (Chorley) (2016)
•Whifflet Electrification (2016)
•Edinburgh – Glasgow electrification and enhancements (2016)
•Great Western and South Wales Main Lines from Heathrow Airport Junction to Oxford, Newbury, Bristol Temple Meads and Cardiff (through to 2017)

 

[ChrisCooper]

I don't know, most of the DMUs that will be displaced by electrification are getting on for needing replacement anyway, particularly with the accesibility requirements towards the end of the decade (either that or a lot of costly work). There are going to be many routes that are going to be diesel for a long time, afterall very few countries come close to 100% electrification. Few of those routes are suited to tram train type things.

 

[ainsworth74]

No I think there will be another order of DMUs at some point possibly more 172s or perhaps a follow on refinement of the 172. I don't think that enough modern DMUs are going to be released by the electrification to enable these DMUs to replace the life expired 14xs and some 15xs therefore we will need another build of DMUs this decade.

 

[northernrail]

no i dont think so, will we need a replacement for the pacer's soon?

 

[Failed Unit]

I hope so,

I am hoping they look at lines to electrify and cascade DMUs rather than new EMU, but hope is a strange thing. If the electrify the whole of the North TPE for example they would help release some units to get rid of some pacers.

The Scottish electrification is going to release a lot of DMUs as well.

 

[387star]

I have read Bombardier are halting London Midland 172 delivery and concentrating on Chiltern units. I have seen one on youtube... are they compatible with 168s? Which routes are they to work on?

I very much doubt there will be no further diesal orders. Voyagers will ned extending and it would be a good idea to replace 142/143/144/150/153/155 and 156 fleets with a single design. They will need to be replaced in the decade and many routes are unsuitable for tram rail

 

[ainsworth74]

will we need a replacement for the pacer's soon?

Yes after 2020 they aren't going to meet the requirments for DDA. Ignoring that another issue is that by 2015 the youngest 142s are going to be 30 years old. That's getting on a bit for DMUs, and we are going to seriously need think about replacing them sooner rather than later.

If the electrify the whole of the North TPE for example they would help release some units to get rid of some pacers.

I would love them to electrify the whole of North TPE but I hope you mean that the 185s would release units like 15xs to replace 14xs as I'm not sure a 185 is exactly an appropriate replacement. (Not that I would complain )

 

[MCR247]

I have read Bombardier are halting London Midland 172 delivery and concentrating on Chiltern units. I have seen one on youtube... are they compatible with 168s? Which routes are they to work on?

London - High Wycombe stoppers IIRC

 

[RobShipway]

I think you will find there is some routes where it might be impossible to electrify them or that there is not the demand there, such that electrify the routes would pay dividends. For these routes you wil either see the likes of class 156, 158, 165 & 166 trains move to these roues as more class 172 trains are required.

Likewise, as has been mentioned I can also see Voyager/Meridians being lengthened if only to add a transformer carrriage to the set with a pantograph such that it can services like London Euston - Holyhead with the pantograph under the wires, then continue on from Chester if it gets electrified to Holyhead. Likewise, the XC services from Penzance.

 

[387star]

Speaking of voyagers too many diesal trains need lengthening like xc 170s

 

[anthony263]

no i dont think so, will we need a replacement for the pacer's soon?

Yes and that is 1 of the reasons why the WAG want the valley lines electrified

I think we may have some class 165/166's displaced after the crossrail project so providing they can be cleared could some be sent to work local services around cornwall/devon?

 

[Failed Unit]

I agree some lines will never justify electrification but we probably already have enough 17x to cover these taking us to 2030. After that who knows! We could have battery operated trains on such lines if technology permits.

 

[Nym]

One of the above points about converting the 22x to electrodiesel, if these can be sucsessfully done then we don't need a bi-mode IEP. If electrification carries on, (Complete the MML, Crewe - Chester, Birmingham - Oxford etc.)

It's in another thread somwhere about how it can be done and I can't be bothered finding it, but the upshot was if Crewe - Chester and the MML where electrified we wouldn't need any more 125mph DEMU stock (it would be converted to EDMU). And ordering more LDPE Electric stock.

Because of the growth of suburban routes around the country though, we will need more new DMUs, but they don't need to be any diferent to the 172s. If I'm thinking right they use tightlock couplers and are electrically compatable with Sprinters and Pacers, so could eventually replace all the sprinters as they life expire, but not before. I'd think we should be seeing an order for more 172s, provided they can work in multiple with sprinters and have through gangways.

Btw. Quick summary of my numbers for LDPE DEMU Cascade:
Crewe - Chester & ICWC Electric Stock percurement (More Class 390): All Class 221 Released from ICWC (19 * 5 car + 2 * 4 car pre conversion, 21*7 or 8 car post conversion to EDMU, or as long as you like to be honest)
MML would release all MML Medirans, so, 27 Class 222 trains... Convert as needed etc.
The ICWC Cascade and the 180s should be plenty for ICGW's services. Or, send the 222s to ICGW and send the 221s to open access operators in EDMU Form, with some possible shuffling around between them and XC for EPS running.

Also, if the franchise map stays the same when the lancs triangle is wired, TPE better damn well be keeping all the 185s, so for the aspiring hourly service pattern...

Electric TPE:
Manchester Airport - Scotland Via Chat Moss
Manchester Airport - Blackpool N Via Bolton & Chorley

Electric Northern:
Manchester Airport - Liverpool L St Via Chat Moss
Hazel Grove - Preston - (Blackpool North) Via Manchester Piccadilly, Bolton and Chorley
Victoria - Chat Moss - Liverpool L St 2tph

Diesel TPE (NW):
Manchester Airport - Barrow / Windermere via Bolton and Chorley

Diesel TPE (N & S): Can have more doubled up (or even tripped up) 185s to releive congestion on the lines.

 

[Failed Unit]

But when you look at the areas around the major cities if electrification started now then we could get the pacers and sprinters retired before they become expired.

South East area, get all gaps removed such as reading - basingstoke and various on the Redhill - Gatwick area.

Birmingham do leamington - great Malvern via snow will along with brant green - driotwich and Oxford - Coventry.

Leeds
TPE north and Leeds - sheffield short term

Manchester
Again TPE north will remove a lot coupled with what is planned.

Sheffield
Doncaster - sheffield.

 

[Nym]

The same as for LDPE Diesel stock, but we will eventually need more diesel stock as the current life expires. Unlike LDPE routes we can't electrify the whole country, but we can electrify all LDPE routes, except the odd few where locos can haul the EMUs, as VT have proven can work (somtimes)

 

[RobShipway]

One of the above points about converting the 22x to electrodiesel, if these can be sucsessfully done then we don't need a bi-mode IEP. If electrification carries on, (Complete the MML, Crewe - Chester, Birmingham - Oxford etc.)

It's in another thread somwhere about how it can be done and I can't be bothered finding it, but the upshot was if Crewe - Chester and the MML where electrified we wouldn't need any more 125mph DEMU stock (it would be converted to EDMU). And ordering more LDPE Electric stock.

Because of the growth of suburban routes around the country though, we will need more new DMUs, but they don't need to be any diferent to the 172s. If I'm thinking right they use tightlock couplers and are electrically compatable with Sprinters and Pacers, so could eventually replace all the sprinters as they life expire, but not before. I'd think we should be seeing an order for more 172s, provided they can work in multiple with sprinters and have through gangways.

Btw. Quick summary of my numbers for LDPE DEMU Cascade:
Crewe - Chester & ICWC Electric Stock percurement (More Class 390): All Class 221 Released from ICWC (19 * 5 car + 2 * 4 car pre conversion, 21*7 or 8 car post conversion to EDMU, or as long as you like to be honest)
MML would release all MML Medirans, so, 27 Class 222 trains... Convert as needed etc.
The ICWC Cascade and the 180s should be plenty for ICGW's services. Or, send the 222s to ICGW and send the 221s to open access operators in EDMU Form, with some possible shuffling around between them and XC for EPS running.

Also, if the franchise map stays the same when the lancs triangle is wired, TPE better damn well be keeping all the 185s, so for the aspiring hourly service pattern...

Electric TPE:
Manchester Airport - Scotland Via Chat Moss
Manchester Airport - Blackpool N Via Bolton & Chorley

Electric Northern:
Manchester Airport - Liverpool L St Via Chat Moss
Hazel Grove - Preston - (Blackpool North) Via Manchester Piccadilly, Bolton and Chorley
Victoria - Chat Moss - Liverpool L St 2tph

Diesel TPE (NW):
Manchester Airport - Barrow / Windermere via Bolton and Chorley

Diesel TPE (N & S): Can have more doubled up (or even tripped up) 185s to releive congestion on the lines.

One route you have forgotten here is the Euston - Holyhead route as I think you will find that the WCML will not be getting any IEP trains, these are going to GWML & ECML. Hence, why the thought is of extending certainly the Voyagers to be six cars trains with a Transformer coach.

 

[swt_passenger]

One of the above points about converting the 22x to electrodiesel, if these can be sucsessfully done then we don't need a bi-mode IEP.

Tim Shoveller, (the MML MD) has just been quoted in Modern Railways suggesting that conversion just isn't going to happen...

 

[Nym]

One route you have forgotten here is the Euston - Holyhead route as I think you will find that the WCML will not be getting any IEP trains, these are going to GWML & ECML. Hence, why the thought is of extending certainly the Voyagers to be six cars trains with a Transformer coach.

I wasn't sudgesting getting IEPs on the WCML, 390s are whats needed, proberbly 30, they wouldn't work without EPS, wires to chester and loco haulage for the extentions to Holyhead.

 

[tbtc]

Yes, we will need new DMUs.

Take the line from Cardiff to Swansea as an example. Electrification would save the hourly HST (replacing it with an EMU), but there apparently isn't a good enough business case for it.

Now, if an hourly service doesn't have a good enough business case for electrification then there are a lot of lines which don't qualify elsewhere. If these can't justify electrification then they will need new DMUs in the medium term.

For example, from Sheffield we have the following:

TPE South - all the route west of Scunthorpe has at least two trains an hour (inc other services), so would be a good candidate for electrifiation

Norwich - Liverpool - all the route has at least two trains an hour (inc other services), but this would only move to EMU once all of these were wired, which is a long way away

XC - The core XC services run on lines with at least a couple of trains an hour (inc other services), but the extensions at the far ends don't necessarily (Newquay etc) - like the Liverpool/Norwich these would only move to EMU after hundreds of miles of electrification elsewhere

MML - Best case for long distance electrification

Sheffield - Lincoln - hourly service almost all of the way, poor business case (based on current service pattern), though scope for Sheffield - Retford - London services if it is wired

Sheffield - Huddersfield - hourly service almost all of the way, poor business case (based on current service pattern)

Sheffield - Scunthorpe/Adwick. If the line to Doncaster is wired (see XC/TPE South) then these would move to EMU

Sheffield - Bolton On Dearne - Leeds - depends on XC being wired

Sheffield - Barnsley - Leeds - decent business case (would need Castleford part doing too)

Sheffield - New Mills - Manchester - depends on suburban electrification around Manchester

So, based on my local station, there are a few routes which aren't viable for electrification and a few routes (Norwich - Liverpool, XC) where you could only move to EMUs after lots of gaps have been filled in around the country, which is a long time away.

Better to concentrate on self contained routes with a lot of DMUs (GOBLIN, Snow Hill lines, Cardiff Valleys). These would free up a lot of DMUs for elsewhere. However there's a limit to how cascading can work - you're not going to be able to put 185s on "local" routes.

 

[ChrisCooper]

I think the main issue is going to be the 156 and it's routes. They cover a lot of unelectrified milage that would not be economic to electrify, yet they are not routes that would be suitable for tram-train type things. Cascaded 158s will only delay the problem a year or two, they aren't that much newer. 150 and 158 core routes should be being electrified, and pacer routes might end up with tram-trains. The only real option using existing DMUs would be to electrify the Snow Hill lines, the Chiltern lines and GOBLIN and displace the 172s to replace 156s, and electrify much of the regional express network to displace 170s to replace 158s. 150 and Pacers in other areas would be replaced with electrics or tram-trains. Not sure about the 153s, they are weird. Most of the routes where they run single (and nothing more would be justified) would probably be suitable for tram-trains, when coupled they just become 156s.

 

[NXEA!]

As to the original question, I think yes, we will need a new order of DMU's similar to 172's to replace all the 14x/15x units that will be reaching the end of their life soon which won't have already been replaced by EMU's from Electrification Schemes. I think we also have to concentrate on electrifying 'diesel islands' such as the GOBLIN, Oxted-Uckfield, Ashford-Hastings, the North Downs, the Reading-Basingstoke branch, and such other lines. I think also they should electrify the branches of the GWML which aren't going to be electrified, such as the Henley branch, the Windsor branch, the Bourne End and Marlow Branches and the Greenford branch (I'm pretty sure there's others as well off the Thames end of the GWML), as it's silly that they're going to electrify the main sections to replace the bulk of the 165/166's but this will not free up all sets and so a small diesel fleet will have to be kept at Old Oak Common/Reading. I know, cost-effectiveness play's a part, but it would be better if they showed some initiative.

 

[RobShipway]

As to the original question, I think yes, we will need a new order of DMU's similar to 172's to replace all the 14x/15x units that will be reaching the end of their life soon which won't have already been replaced by EMU's from Electrification Schemes. I think we also have to concentrate on electrifying 'diesel islands' such as the GOBLIN, Oxted-Uckfield, Ashford-Hastings, the North Downs, the Reading-Basingstoke branch, and such other lines. I think also they should electrify the branches of the GWML which aren't going to be electrified, such as the Henley branch, the Windsor branch, the Bourne End and Marlow Branches and the Greenford branch (I'm pretty sure there's others as well off the Thames end of the GWML), as it's silly that they're going to electrify the main sections to replace the bulk of the 165/166's but this will not free up all sets and so a small diesel fleet will have to be kept at Old Oak Common/Reading. I know, cost-effectiveness play's a part, but it would be better if they showed some initiative.

I totally agree with you comments above and one thing that I think also should be done which has been mentioned in this forum before is to make the section between Wokingham and Guildford third Rail or alternative have some DEMU either Electrostar or Desiro's built to be a modern day version of the Thumper DEMU's.

 

[Blindtraveler]

when is the 156 fleat life expired? We have quite a fleat in Scotland and due to the diversitty of the runs they do then replacement may need a bit of propper looking at. Am I right in thinking runs like the west highland, carlisle/dumfries/stranrar arn't cleared for other D M U stock, eg 158s?

 

[387star]

Gatwick Airport-Reading could be handed over to South West Trains

 

[Blindtraveler]

oh and if shuffling the pack, some of TPE's shorter stoppers could go over to 172 type opperation and the freed up 185 units from the new EMU Scotland-Manchester could be cascaded to Scotrail to opperate Edinburgh/Glasgo - Aberdeen/Inverness runs, being far more appropriate than the turbostars currently working them and in turn this would free up the formentioned to allow the retirement of older stock on some runs. The 170s could be refurbished to provide a more comuter style 3 plus 2 layout, with fc removed.

 

[daccer]

The issue is so closely linked to the electrification progarmme that they will always run side by side. The age of the DMU fleet is an issue and will continue to be so. If the electrification programme does not roll on after the GWML and stops then there is going to be a real issue with the DMU's becoming life expired and cascades not being enough to replace the Pacers and early Sprinter classes.

The other issue which the Govt seems to be oblivious to is that demand is likely to continue to grow in the coming years despite attempts to choke it with fare increases. How can DMU's be retired when overcowding is likely to become endemic and in some Northern areas catastrophic. It would seem that the ROSCO's arent that keen on financing DMU's in large numbers anymore due to the fact they might become obsolete before they become life expired. Who is going to fund any new DMU builds? The Govt seem to believe that the current electrification schemes will suffice. My view is that there is a reckoning coming on the DMU front and by 2019 it will be an extreme issue.

 

[LE Greys]

I would love them to electrify the whole of North TPE but I hope you mean that the 185s would release units like 15xs to replace 14xs as I'm not sure a 185 is exactly an appropriate replacement. (Not that I would complain )

This relies on TPX getting electrified, but I like the idea of transferring the 185s to XC to replace the 170s. After all, they use the same QSK19 engines as the Voyagers. Only problem is that they are quite heavy for some lines. That then shakes loose a few 170s for other routes, perhaps to replace the 158s in Scotland or finally bring newer units to FGW. As a result of the cascade, we might see the back of the Pacers in a few years.

 

[ainsworth74]

some of TPE's shorter stoppers could go over to 172 type opperation and the freed up 185 units from the new EMU Scotland-Manchester could be cascaded to Scotrail to opperate Edinburgh/Glasgo - Aberdeen/Inverness runs

I don't think it's a wise idea to split up a fleet between two operators if we can avoid it (especially one that has had specific depots built to maintain the fleet). Besides you're not going to free up enough 185s to take over any of the Edinburgh to Glasgow/Aberdeen/Inverness services completely. The only short runs on TPE are Windermere and Barrow to Manchester. Even then they are not short at 1hr 38min for a Windermere - Piccadilly service, whilst Edinburgh - Glasgow comes in at around 55mins. For TPE everything else is at least two hours minimum end to end (I suspect longer than that even). And out of a fleet of 51 running Barrow and Windermere probably only takes up 6 or so units, not really enough to run any of those Scottish runs.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

This relies on TPX getting electrified... [snip]

Can't say I object to that idea! Shame TPE is unlikely to wires any time soon other than for Manchester-Scotland

 

[MCR247]

Gatwick Airport-Reading could be handed over to South West Trains

And why is that?

 

[swt_passenger]

And why is that?

I assume he's thinking of when that route is fully electrified. Now the electrification strategy already states that if competed it would be done with third rail.

Economies of scale suggest it would sit better with SWT (or even SN) - but only if a third rail EMU was planned to be used - but it wouldn't be impossible for FGW to keep on running it - perhaps using 319s from their overall fleet, if they have enough.