Will the Chiltern 68s continue beyond the May 2022 Timetable Change?

[HST43257]

Moderator note - split from:

Chiltern 68 weekday diagrams as at 20th Jan 2022

Hi all Can anyone confirm the current weekday trains on the chilterns that are running with 68's to/from Marylebone to Birmingham / Kidderminster. I believe there are is a turn to Oxford. Thank you

www.railforums.co.uk

Is there any news on May timetable diagrams, if any 68s will still be operating?

 

[warwickshire]

Is there any news on May timetable diagrams, if any 68s will still be operating?

As far as I know staying at least till the end off the year.
Also are most certainly needed for the commonwealth games alone.
Also from a very reliable source off mine chiltern are working on a plan for replacement during 2023.
So are safe anyway till end off 2022 at least. During the early part off 2023 is time to get more worried.
However as time goes on during 2022 .
As more news becomes confirmed it will be interesting to see what the replacement plans will be timescale wise for 2023.

 

[CyrusWuff]

The 68s should be in use until at least after the Commonwealth Games (which run until Monday 8th August) as Chiltern will need the capacity.

After that, who knows? Ultimately they'd need twenty-four 100mph capable D(E)MU vehicles (preferably Turbostars, for compatibility with the existing fleet) to replace them, and those are in fairly short supply.

 

[hooverboy]

The 68s should be in use until at least after the Commonwealth Games (which run until Monday 8th August) as Chiltern will need the capacity.

After that, who knows? Ultimately they'd need twenty-four 100mph capable D(E)MU vehicles (preferably Turbostars, for compatibility with the existing fleet) to replace them, and those are in fairly short supply.

I think that hankering for more turbostars is wishful thinking, they're already in short supply in other parts of the network,and those that are around nearly all have pending transfer loactions, dependent on acceptance of the new WMT and TFW stock.

I would have thought that the 68's will be held onto until some of the other operators such as avanti WC and EMR start getting their new toys,but optimistically,in order to release the voyagers/meridians/adalante's you'd be looking at at least 12-18 months from now before those are type approved and crew trained.
You could pehaps have a bit more luck getting hold of the tfw cl175's.There's 27 of those,but they are split 50:50 between 2 and 3 car formations, so could encounter some capacity constraints.

I think if I was playing trainsets with chiltern, I would probably be considering the class 180's(all 14) for the birmingham-london expresses, and the class 175's to replace the clubmans and turbostars.All the Alstom stuff can be maintained in birmingham by their OEM,which is not far away.

 

[sufian123]

The 68s should be in use until at least after the Commonwealth Games (which run until Monday 8th August) as Chiltern will need the capacity.

After that, who knows? Ultimately they'd need twenty-four 100mph capable D(E)MU vehicles (preferably Turbostars, for compatibility with the existing fleet) to replace them, and those are in fairly short supply.

Who said they replacing them?

 

[JonathanH]

I think that hankering for more turbostars is wishful thinking, they're already in short supply in other parts of the network,and those that are around nearly all have pending transfer loactions, dependent on acceptance of the new WMT and TFW stock.

Who says there would be any incoming stock? The usage of the 68 hauled sets is limited in any case. It may just be a case of tinkering with the formations of other services to eliminate the 68s. The percentage cut back in vehicles would only be around 15% relative to the fleet prior to March 2020. Are 85% of passengers still travelling on the route?

 

[Neptune]

I think if I was playing trainsets with chiltern, I would probably be considering the class 180's(all 14) for the birmingham-london expresses, and the class 175's to replace the clubmans and turbostars.All the Alstom stuff can be maintained in birmingham by their OEM,which is not far away.

And what would Grand Central use then?

 

[Bletchleyite]

And what would Grand Central use then?

In any case Chiltern is a 100mph (or less) railway, so 175s would work fine for all of it. No need for the (far less reliable) 180s.

175s "look and feel" so similar to Mk3s (or in some ways a souped up Mk2, though I guess what they really are is souped up 156s) I suspect there would be a lot of non-enthusiast passengers who wouldn't even notice if they painted them silver.

However, doors-at-thirds is better for more commuter oriented services, so replacing 168/170s would not be on the agenda. The 165s are older but have had a heavy refurb so I doubt they are out to replace these either, though I'd imagine having everything 100mph capable would be handy.

 

[Mikey C]

Chiltern have already lost the 172s, so I can't see them losing the 68s/Mk 3s without some sort of replacement.

In an ideal world they'd replace the 165s on use on Mainline stopping services with more 100mph Turbostars, but that's not going to happen. They can stay on the slower Amersham route where their slower speed isn't a problem

 

[JonathanH]

Chiltern have already lost the 172s

In practice that represents 6 carriages as I seem to recall that they didn't run with anything else. The Banbury set another 6 carriages.

However, the point remains - are there more than 85% of the passengers travelling who travelled prior to March 2020. I suspect not.

 

[Mikey C]

In practice that represents 6 carriages as I seem to recall that they didn't run with anything else. The Banbury set another 6 carriages.

However, the point remains - are there more than 85% of the passengers travelling who travelled prior to March 2020. I suspect not.

Long distance commuting has clearly declined. However nobody knows how much it will recover once Covid is no longer an issue, and in the meantime houses are still being built along the Chiltern route.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Long distance commuting has clearly declined. However nobody knows how much it will recover once Covid is no longer an issue, and in the meantime houses are still being built along the Chiltern route.

Chiltern is an interesting one in this regard because, between Harrow-on-the-Hill and Bicester at least and possibly excepting Wycombe and Aylesbury themselves, it goes pretty much entirely through an area of immense prosperity and white-collar work, the kind which is most likely to switch to home-working with maybe one or two days a week in London for meetings and the likes. Thus, I think it is more likely than other routes (though the south WCML is not entirely dissimilar) to see a big drop-off in commuting. It'll take another couple of years for this to settle, though, which would tally with keeping the Mk3s until after the Commonwealth Games.

 

[Philip]

If they do replace the 68-hauled stock, I think it could be the Northern 170s that replace them. Northern can then replace the 170s with either EMR 158s or TfW 175s and if it's the former then the 175s can replace EMR's 158s; the timescales fit well for this.

 

[Bletchleyite]

If they do replace the 68-hauled stock, I think it could be the Northern 170s that replace them. Northern can then replace the 170s with either EMR 158s or TfW 175s and if it's the former then the 175s can replace EMR's 158s; the timescales fit well for this.

True, 170s are an incredibly poor fit for Northern given what they are using them for (local stopping services). Fuel-hungry and slow. They are designed for regional expresses like Chiltern.

 

[Neptune]

If they do replace the 68-hauled stock, I think it could be the Northern 170s that replace them. Northern can then replace the 170s with either EMR 158s or TfW 175s and if it's the former then the 175s can replace EMR's 158s; the timescales fit well for this.

I’ll say this. If everyone’s ideas for Northern 170’s come off there’ll be one to each operator that they are suggested for. Oh and 175’s yet again.

True, 170s are an incredibly poor fit for Northern given what they are using them for (local stopping services). Fuel-hungry and slow. They are designed for regional expresses like Chiltern.

Harrogate line (6 out of 16 units) I’ll grant you but Scarborough/Hull to Sheffield that they are mainly used on is not a local stopping service.

 

[Philip]

I’ll say this. If everyone’s ideas for Northern 170’s come off there’ll be one to each operator that they are suggested for. Oh and 175’s yet again.

Harrogate line (6 out of 16 units) I’ll grant you but Scarborough/Hull to Sheffield that they are mainly used on is not a local stopping service.

Northern 170s to Chiltern makes sense though because they'll be compatible with the existing Chiltern DMU stock; and a suitable train for that kind of work.

I did say either 158s or 175s; I would even suggest the better option would be more 158s for Northern and 175s for EMR Nottingham-Liverpool services, as both Northern and EMR would be gaining additional carriages if this was to happen.

Chiltern: 31 mk5 coaches out, 48 class 170 coaches in

Northern: 48 class 170 coaches out, 52 class 158 coaches in

EMR: 52 class 158 coaches out, 70 class 175 coaches in

 

[JonathanH]

Chiltern: 31 mk5 coaches out, 48 class 170 coaches in

Why would you bring more coaches in than need replacing?

 

[Neptune]

Northern 170s to Chiltern makes sense though because they'll be compatible with the existing Chiltern DMU stock; and a suitable train for that kind of work.

I did say either 158s or 175s; I would even suggest the better option would be more 158s for Northern and 175s for EMR Nottingham-Liverpool services, as both Northern and EMR would be gaining additional carriages if this was to happen.

Northern: 48 class 170 coaches out, 52 class 158 coaches in

EMR: 52 class 158 coaches out, 70 class 175 coaches in

Well if Chiltern are looking for compatibility then why not send them the EMR 158’s?

Why is it always Northern’s 170’s that are fair game for replacing with stock that is 15 years older.

Also why would Northern go to the trouble of specially fitting out Hull Botanic Gardens to take over maintenance of the 170’s from Neville Hill only to ship them out to someone else.

 

[Philip]

Why would you bring more coaches in than need replacing?

Well Northern won't want to keep hold of only a small handful beyond the required number to replace the m5 coaches. Better that all the 170s go, perhaps Cross Country could take the ones that Chiltern don't need?

 

[The Planner]

As I often ask. If all these 170s head south, and especially if XC got more, where are they living?

 

[Neptune]

Well Northern won't want to keep hold of only a small handful beyond the required number to replace the m5 coaches. Better that all the 170s go, perhaps Cross Country could take the ones that Chiltern don't need?

Cross Country now as well. Amazing.

 

[Philip]

Well if Chiltern are looking for compatibility then why not send them the EMR 158’s?

Why is it always Northern’s 170’s that are fair game for replacing with stock that is 15 years older.

Also why would Northern go to the trouble of specially fitting out Hull Botanic Gardens to take over maintenance of the 170’s from Neville Hill only to ship them out to someone else.

On the other hand in this proposal EMR would gain a more modern unit in the form of the 175, some with an extra coach and thus providing more capacity on the Liverpool-Norwich route. The inconvenience in reverting Hull depot back to maintaining trains other than 170s would be offset by Northern having one less type of train on their books for the traincrew to maintain knowledge of.

Northern are also thinking about more 195s in the long term; if this battery bi-mode train proves successful then I suspect more of these will be ordered.

Chiltern should have gone for 170s over loco hauled stock in the first place.

 

[Neptune]

On the other hand in this proposal EMR would gain a more modern unit in the form of the 175, some with an extra coach and thus providing more capacity on the Liverpool-Norwich route. The inconvenience in reverting Hull depot back to maintaining trains other than 170s would be offset by Northern having one less type of train on their books for the traincrew to maintain knowledge of.

So EMR at the expense of Northern is what you’re saying.

Reverting BG back to a proper maintenance depot is inconvenient how? It’s actually more convenient.

The 155’s will also be based there.

I’m fairly sure Traincrew can handle more than 1 class on their route cards. At the max I had 12 different classes and managed to cope.

 

[Philip]

As I often ask. If all these 170s head south, and especially if XC got more, where are they living?

Tyseley depot or Wembley?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Feb 2022 ==

So EMR at the expense of Northern is what you’re saying.

Reverting BG back to a proper maintenance depot is inconvenient how? It’s actually more convenient.

The 155’s will also be based there.

I’m fairly sure Traincrew can handle more than 1 class on their route cards. At the max I had 12 different classes and managed to cope.

As has been said though, some of the routes Northern 170s run on are unsuitable for this unit; both Chiltern and Cross Country routes would be more suitable for the 170s. Class 175s would be suitable for EMR city link routes and Northern would gain from an increase in DMU coaches that this would bring. Northern could shuffle 158s and 195s around so that the Harrogate line gets 195s and extra 158s could go onto routes like York to Blackpool, Leeds to Nottingham and Sheffield to Hull.

 

[Class172]

Tyseley depot or Wembley?

To my knowledge Tyseley is pretty full so unlikely has the capacity for an increase.

 

[Mikey C]

Chiltern should have gone for 170s over loco hauled stock in the first place.

Didn't Chiltern only go for the Mk3s due to a lack of available Turbostars?

 

[JonathanH]

Didn't Chiltern only go for the Mk3s due to a lack of available Turbostars?

The Mark 3s happened to be available in 2010 when they took them on and it happened to be convenient to do so. They went for Turbostars in preference to more Mark 3s later for the opening of the service to Oxford.

 

[HamworthyGoods]

I’m slightly lost here, the mk3 sets are planned to go to save money on a network which has since a big drop in commuting and yet the proposals here seem to be bringing in an a net increase in vehicles just so some 170s don’t go spare so actually adding in cost. Bizarre!!

That really isn’t how businesses work, you lease the number of trains you need it really isn’t the railways concern what the leasing company does with the other vehicles.

 

[Philip]

I’m slightly lost here, the mk3 sets are planned to go to save money on a network which has since a big drop in commuting and yet the proposals here seem to be bringing in an a net increase in vehicles just so some 170s don’t go spare so actually adding in cost. Bizarre!!

That really isn’t how businesses work, you lease the number of trains you need it really isn’t the railways concern what the leasing company does with the other vehicles.

It would be a waste having 170s in cold storage but as said if Northern sent them all back to the leasing company they could be split between Chiltern and another company. Or Northern could retain a handful (if they're happy to have a micro fleet) and just give Chiltern enough to replace the loco hauled stock.

 

[JonathanH]

It would be a waste having 170s in cold storage but as said if Northern sent them all back to the leasing company they could be split between Chiltern and another company. Or Northern could retain a handful (if they're happy to have a micro fleet) and just give Chiltern enough to replace the loco hauled stock.

Northern aren't going to release 170s to anyone though. The point here is for Chiltern to manage with less stock to reflect lower loadings and start to reduce costs by eliminating the fleet likely to have the highest costs.

If Northern have to similarly start reducing their diesel fleet, it may well be the 155s that go first then the worst examples of the 150 fleet.

It has been written that the DfT have fairly free rein to move units around but Chiltern would have to make a solid business case to get any extra stock to maintain its fleet size.