Will next year’s rail fares increase be the highest ever?

[bakerstreet]

Will we see double digit fare rises across the England (and UK) rail network in 2023?

Will UK government or devolved authorities step in to limit any eye watering rise?

Will GBR’s first material act be to impose the highest fares rise in a generation?

RPI (the inflation statistic, rather than the revenue role) is 7.8% (January 2022 figure). It’s the highest since March 1991 (source Office for National Statistics)

It was 7.5% the previous month (Dec 2021)

According to economists, it will almost certainly be higher by July, the month of doom which identifies the amount January (or, of late, March) regulated fares will increase by.

I found this on the gov website. It’s packed full of UK rail fare statistics.

Going back as far as 1999, the highest regulated fares rise I can see over the past 20+ years is c.6%

How much do you think passengers will bear in 2023 before they vote with their feet?

We see current cuts to frequencies. Will we see the network cut back in size as well?

 

[Spartacus]

To answer the first question, no, BR raised rail fares rose MUCH quicker in the late 70s and I think early 80s, the biggest I’ve found is by 16.5% in 1978, I think there was a general rule of thumb of 10%.

 

[Robertj21a]

I would suggest that fare rises may well be in double digit %. There's going to be significant inflation across a massive UK cost base (particularly after Ukriane-Russia sanctions etc) and the railways will be right in the middle of it.

 

[SynthD]

It won’t be gbr’s first act, as gbr won’t be visible to the public by then.

The student loan calculation abandoned the +3% part, so maybe this will too.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The government is always capable of deciding a lower fares rise, as it did this year.
If everything is going up by say 10%, there's no reason to think rail fares will be exempt.
Inflation peaked at about 25% in the 1970s, following the quadrupling of oil prices and middle east wars.
That was followed by a period of wage and prices freeze (and the "winter of discontent").
Very likely there will be many government interventions as the fallout from Covid and the Russian sanctions regime works its way through the economy.
But the underlying rail legislation allows RPI + 1% (+3% in some circumstances).