Will Keir Starmer last?

[nlogax]

Because it is represented that way and not as what it really is: Corruption!

Fine, let me clarify. I'm fairly sure most people are intelligent to see the home decor distraction for what it is, which is indeed corruption.

And they still don't seem to care.

 

[DarloRich]

Fine, let me clarify. I'm fairly sure most people are intelligent to see the home decor distraction for what it is, which is indeed corruption.

And they still don't seem to care.

agreed - it is a worrying sign.

 

[75A]

Keir who?

aka The Invisible Man

 

[packermac]

agreed - it is a worrying sign.

Why are you surprised? All around the world voters seem not care about many things that opposition parties and the media like to stoke up "as evets"
For example

Trump
Numerous Italian Leaders
Numerous French Leaders

For months many on here have been giving dates when Boris wili resign because of how unpopular he and the Tories are. Yesterday did not seem to confirm that.

 

[eMeS]

I can remember a time when cars fitted with loudspeakers on their roofs went around the area telling us who to vote for, but in the few days leading up to yesterday's elections, I had none of that here. I did get a few leaflets, but nothing whatsoever from the would-be "Police & Crime Commissionaires". What on earth are they for? Are they jobs for old political friends?

 

[swt_passenger]

I did get a few leaflets, but nothing whatsoever from the would-be "Police & Crime Commissionaires". What on earth are they for? Are they jobs for old political friends?

Standing at the police HQ door looking smart?

 

[DerekC]

I can remember a time when cars fitted with loudspeakers on their roofs went around the area telling us who to vote for, but in the few days leading up to yesterday's elections, I had none of that here. I did get a few leaflets, but nothing whatsoever from the would-be "Police & Crime Commissionaires". What on earth are they for? Are they jobs for old political friends?

They are so that the government can exercise political control over local police forces. Previously the police in an area reported to a local government committee, some of which were inclined to criticise Home Office policy!

 

[Typhoon]

Why are you surprised? All around the world voters seem not care about many things that opposition parties and the media like to stoke up "as evets"
For example

Trump
Numerous Italian Leaders
Numerous French Leaders

For months many on here have been giving dates when Boris wili resign because of how unpopular he and the Tories are. Yesterday did not seem to confirm that.

Daily Mail poll published on May 1st (copied from newspaper):
'Do you believe Boris Johnson said that he would rather see 'bodies pile high' than impose another lockdown' - 48% 'yes', 30% 'no'.*

'Do you believe Boris Johnson has behaved improperly over the renovation of his flat?' 58% 'yes' (including 37% of Conservatives), 26% 'no'.

It doesn't seem to matter what he does, people still vote for him.

* - whatever anyone thinks of a further lockdown, surely the phrase 'bodies pile high' can be seen as being offensive to some, at least?

I did get a few leaflets, but nothing whatsoever from the would-be "Police & Crime Commissionaires". What on earth are they for? Are they jobs for old political friends?

Standing at the police HQ door looking smart?

Very good, sir. Maybe greet them with 'Morning All' and a sharp salute. In some cases that might be a more constructive use of their skills. Ours is very good at looking stern.

Are they jobs for old political friends? Yes, that and politicians who have lost in an election

 

[Bertie the bus]

Fine, let me clarify. I'm fairly sure most people are intelligent to see the home decor distraction for what it is, which is indeed corruption.

And they still don't seem to care.

Indeed. It’s laughable how much the media has made out of this so called wallpaper scandal. Boris Johnson illegally prorogued parliament and was alleged to have lied to the Queen to achieve it. Did real people care? No, when the election came he won a large majority. Normal people want somebody who will do what they want doing. Obviously people care about real corruption, which is why several long serving MPs lost their seats after the expenses scandal, but they don’t care about who pays for wallpaper for a property Johnson doesn’t even own. Political pundits care about things like that but they wouldn’t recognise a normal person if they married them.

 

[WAB]

The Labour Party is an uneasy coalition of two seperate parties, and it is increasingly futile trying to hold them together.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Indeed. It’s laughable how much the media has made out of this so called wallpaper scandal. Boris Johnson illegally prorogued parliament and was alleged to have lied to the Queen to achieve it. Did real people care? No, when the election came he won a large majority. Normal people want somebody who will do what they want doing. Obviously people care about real corruption, which is why several long serving MPs lost their seats after the expenses scandal, but they don’t care about who pays for wallpaper for a property Johnson doesn’t even own. Political pundits care about things like that but they wouldn’t recognise a normal person if they married them.

It isnt about the wallpaper though. It's about who is providing the money and so who is gaining influence over the prime minister. Is that not something you think is important?

Also, if his money situation is as bad as has been rumoured, then thats him a ripe target for blackmail or worse (essentially the same reason why in some industries, being in debt can rule you out of a job).

It is also about his addiction to lying and getting away with it, which the mainstream media seem to want to ignore (the BBC even did an article on his "relationship with the truth" but failed to cover clear examples of him lying to the public and to Parliament).

 

[birchesgreen]

"The Labour Party is an uneasy coalition of two seperate parties, and it is increasingly futile trying to hold them together."

The Tories used to be like that too of course, but they recently booted out one half.

 

[Butts]

"The Labour Party is an uneasy coalition of two seperate parties, and it is increasingly futile trying to hold them together."

The Tories used to be like that too of course, but they recently booted out one half.

Perhaps Labour should follow suit ? - it doesn't seem to have done them much harm.

 

[birchesgreen]

Perhaps Labour should follow suit ? - it doesn't seem to have done them much harm.

They have tried to do it to an extent. Maybe the party should split: a more centrist party in the south and a lefty one in the north, with a pact not to compete against each other.

 

[Peterthegreat]

They have tried to do it to an extent. Maybe the party should split: a more centrist party in the south and a lefty one in the north, with a pact not to compete against each other.

I suspect it should be the other way round. A lefty one in the south (London) and a centrist (right wing one) in the north.

 

[birchesgreen]

I suspect it should be the other way round. A lefty one in the south (London) and a centrist (right wing one) in the north.

Yes got that mixed up! I doubt you could get away with it though, but maybe the party needs to become devolved and regionalised, different regional parties which work together.

 

[Butts]

I suspect it should be the other way round. A lefty one in the south (London) and a centrist (right wing one) in the north.

Perhaps Labour should be looking at "Darth Drakefords" success in Wales for a key to future prosperity ?

 

[WAB]

They have tried to do it to an extent. Maybe the party should split: a more centrist party in the north and a lefty one in the south, with a pact not to compete against each other.

Oh 100%. Would need FPTP to be ditched though. Then they could compete nationally and see if there is true support for the Tories and Momentum.

 

[edwin_m]

I suspect it should be the other way round. A lefty one in the south (London) and a centrist (right wing one) in the north.

The risk would be that Tories would continue the "vote X, get Y" mantra to scare people off voting for Northern Labour because it would help to get Southern Labour into power and vice versa. Of course it would be within their power to change the voting system that allows that to happen, but they choose not to...

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Daily Mail poll published on May 1st (copied from newspaper):
'Do you believe Boris Johnson said that he would rather see 'bodies pile high' than impose another lockdown' - 48% 'yes', 30% 'no'.*

'Do you believe Boris Johnson has behaved improperly over the renovation of his flat?' 58% 'yes' (including 37% of Conservatives), 26% 'no'.

It doesn't seem to matter what he does, people still vote for him.

* - whatever anyone thinks of a further lockdown, surely the phrase 'bodies pile high' can be seen as being offensive to some, at least?

Quite. And that's probably because most voters, very sensibly, do not vote based on one single issue, but on the aggregate of everything they feel the Government is doing. Some of the posts here seem to give the impression that people imagine that the wallpaper plus the remark are so incredibly important that they should trump everything else in how you vote. But that's not really how it works. Most people are going to see something more like, bedroom wallpaper vs. one of the World's fastest vaccine rollouts which may well turn out to have saved tens of thousands of lives, and they're not going to decide that bedroom wallpaper is more important than lots of lives saved!

Regarding the 'bodies pile high' thing. What people here seem to be forgetting is that everyone from time to time makes off-the-cuff remarks that come out the wrong way or they plain said completely the wrong thing without thinking. If you decide that anyone who ever makes an off-the-cuff remark that turns out to have come out in an offensive way is automatically not fit to be prime minister, then you'll probably find there isn't a single human being anywhere on the planet who is fit to be prime minister. My own view is that - if a statement like that had been put in a formal Government document, passed several rounds of proof-reading and editing, and then been approved by several senior ministers, then I'd be very worried. But as an off-the-cuff remark that clearly doesn't reflect what the Government is actually doing about lockdowns etc., then it's not really that significant.

 

[TravelDream]

It wasn't all bad for Labour.

In Wales Labour won 39.9% of the constituency vote which was up 5.2% compared to 2016. The Tories won 26.1% and were up 5.0% which is obviously less than Labour. FPTP means that Labour won 27/40 constituency seats on that share.

Labour also did incredibly well in Wales in places that are not too dissimilar to the likes of Hartlepool. There were swings from Conservative to Labour in places like Wrexham.

What did Welsh Labour do right that Labour in England didn't? We still have most of the same newspapers and UK news on TV.

 

[Typhoon]

It wasn't all bad for Labour.

In Wales Labour won 39.9% of the constituency vote which was up 5.2% compared to 2016. The Tories won 26.1% and were up 5.0% which is obviously less than Labour. FPTP means that Labour won 27/40 constituency seats on that share.

Labour also did incredibly well in Wales in places that are not too dissimilar to the likes of Hartlepool. There were swings from Conservative to Labour in places like Wrexham.

What did Welsh Labour do right that Labour in England didn't? We still have most of the same newspapers and UK news on TV.

Maybe it was a vote for the people voters think are getting and will get us out of this mess. Sturgeon seems to have done OK in Scotland despite the clash with Salmond!

 

[Arglwydd Golau]

Perhaps Labour should be looking at "Darth Drakefords" success in Wales for a key to future prosperity ?

People I know here in Wales gladly voted for Mark Drakeford but would not have cast their vote in favour of Keir Starmer.

 

[telstarbox]

Oh 100%. Would need FPTP to be ditched though. Then they could compete nationally and see if there is true support for the Tories and Momentum.

I think the split is more between university cities and post industrial towns than North / South. Labour did well in Preston and Salford this week where both councils are left-leaning.

Not sure which side would want to make the first move on a split though, after Change UK sank without trace.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

I think the split is more between university cities and post industrial towns than North / South. Labour did well in Preston and Salford this week where both councils are left-leaning.

Not sure which side would want to make the first move on a split though, after Change UK sank without trace.

I think Corbynites should jump first, after all, they seem to genuinely believe Corbynism will win the north, so they should put their money where their mouth is.

That would leave liberal-remain labour vs red wall labour. The former could create an alliance with the Greens and Lib Dem’s and the latter MPs could just defect to the SDP.

 

[telstarbox]

It's not as simple as winning back the north though. With Scotland out of the picture Labour needs to win back Southern England seats too for a majority.

For example the Medway seat (now Rochester ) is as much part of the "Red Wall" as Hartlepool, it just fell earlier:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medway_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

There are similar post industrial seats along North Kent and the Solent with socially conservative, Brexit heavy electorates. Labour held these in the Blair years but wouldn't win them at the moment.

 

[edwin_m]

I think Corbynites should jump first, after all, they seem to genuinely believe Corbynism will win the north, so they should put their money where their mouth is.

Isn't that what the Northern Independence Party is trying to achieve?

 

[Typhoon]

It's not as simple as winning back the north though. With Scotland out of the picture Labour needs to win back Southern England seats too for a majority.

For example the Medway seat (now Rochester ) is as much part of the "Red Wall" as Hartlepool, it just fell earlier:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medway_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

There are similar post industrial seats along North Kent and the Solent with socially conservative, Brexit heavy electorates. Labour held these in the Blair years but wouldn't win them at the moment.

The problem with Rochester and Strood, and several other Kent constituencies is they may have a 'red wall' centre but are surrounded by a landscape of blue. In this case, the constituency includes the Hoo peninsula, most (but not all) is rural largely commuter land, Cuxton and Halling (commuter villages), Wainscott (comfortable middle class or retirement), new developments to the south of the constituency (with easy access to Chatham Station). The riverside development just north of Rochester Station is unlikely to be filled by those on the minimum wage, partly because the riverside views will have added at least £30k to the price. These and similar developments in the area will be occupied by those who have felt pressured to get on the housing ladder, used the Bank of mum and dad to get the deposit, can just about meet the mortgage payments, are DFLs ('Down From London') or from other high house price areas, aren't really interested in politics but are easy to scare into the blue corner with tales of Labour extremism that might affect their income/ mortgage/ job security (although it is probably safer under Labour). Labour needs to appeal to them. And a picture of a property in the constituency at the 2014 by-election with three St George's flags and a white van outside by Emily Thornberry did nothing to help. Who did she think used to vote Labour?
That the constituency had a UKIP MP after Mark Reckless, the sitting Conservative, resigned and won the resulting by-election under the Farage banner says something about the it.

The division of the county into constituencies doesn't help. The neighbouring constituency, held by the excellent Tracey Crouch, is Chatham and Aylesford. If you start from Chatham and go south there are a lot of dollops of green and commuter villages on the map before you get to Aylesford, the area is a house builders delight.

Areas such as parts of Thanet, Dover, parts of Swale are similar; core of potential Labour voters, but with a wide blue rim and Brexit voting. Not only does Labour look like wining them, I don't think Blair would either.

 

[telstarbox]

You might be surprised - in 1997 Labour had:
Dover
South Thanet
North Thanet
Sittingbourne and Sheppey
Medway (now Rochester)
Gillingham
Gravesham
Dartford

So almost a continuous string from Dover to London, in the towns which in recent years have been the poorer half of Kent. Admittedly that was the largest landslide but they were winnable once. That would have been with a higher proportion of home ownership and fewer renters as well.

I don't know why you assume that people who move to Kent because it's cheaper than London would be 'uninterested in politics' - if anything they would resent being priced out and more likely to vote?

To bring it back on topic, I think the problem for Keir Starmer is that he's been so cautious in the past year that he's failed to inspire either of the two halves of the Labour coalition which doesn't help Labour at all.

 

[tbtc]

It wasn't all bad for Labour.

In Wales Labour won 39.9% of the constituency vote which was up 5.2% compared to 2016. The Tories won 26.1% and were up 5.0% which is obviously less than Labour. FPTP means that Labour won 27/40 constituency seats on that share.

Labour also did incredibly well in Wales in places that are not too dissimilar to the likes of Hartlepool. There were swings from Conservative to Labour in places like Wrexham.

What did Welsh Labour do right that Labour in England didn't? We still have most of the same newspapers and UK news on TV.

Wales is an interesting story that isn't being discussed (because Hartlepool has a novelty factor, and other debates can be framed in terms of Corbyn-vs-Starmer, so the media don't seem interested?)

"Wales stays Labour" would have seemed a pretty obvious headline ten/twenty years ago, but after seeing the Central Belt fall to the SNP and chunks of the Red Wall to the Tories (often via the gateway drug of UKIP), just standing still is an achievement!

From what I know of Drakeford, he seems to have charted a fairly sensible course without getting involved in factionalism - he doesn't get involved in any of the silly stunts or slogan-parroting that a lot of English Labour seem to enjoy (e.g. the mass waiving of Palestinian flags at the conference) - it just seems fairly practical Labour - maybe there's a lesson for us all to learn there (and that's in Wales which obviously voted for Brexit, so he's handed that well)