• Our new ticketing site is now live! Using either this or the original site (both powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

Will a rise in home working eliminate the need for HS2?

Status
Not open for further replies.

Skymonster

Established Member
Joined
7 Feb 2012
Messages
2,070
With all that's going on, it would be a good time for the government to introduce emergency legislation that bins HS2 and reallocates the funding to other more needy programmes, on the basis that home working is likely to remain more prevalent in the future.
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

hwl

Established Member
Joined
5 Feb 2012
Messages
8,293
With all that's going on, it would be a good time for the government to introduce emergency legislation that bins HS2 and reallocates the funding to other more needy programmes, on the basis that home working is likely to remain more prevalent in the future.
Or an ideal creator of jobs en-masse...
 

duffield

Established Member
Joined
31 Jul 2013
Messages
3,302
Location
East Midlands
With all that's going on, it would be a good time for the government to introduce emergency legislation that bins HS2 and reallocates the funding to other more needy programmes, on the basis that home working is likely to remain more prevalent in the future.

According to many posts on here, if you cancel HS2, the money for it actually ceases to exist, since it consists of (very cheap) borrowing against future revenues. I'm not a finance type but they sound quite convincing. Also, there are a lot of people already working on it who would be thrown out of a job.
 

Aictos

Established Member
Joined
28 Apr 2009
Messages
10,403
Or an ideal creator of jobs en-masse...

Indeed, one way the Nazis solved unemployment apart from rearming was the building of the autobahns across Germany.

Cancelling HS2 is the last thing this Govt should be considering especially as it provides employment for those currently unemployed and also regardless of Covid19 we should be looking long term and not short term.
 

jfowkes

Established Member
Joined
20 Jul 2017
Messages
1,271
With interest rates falling to record lows, we should be borrowing MORE for EVERYTHING.
 

Ianno87

Veteran Member
Joined
3 May 2015
Messages
15,214
With all that's going on, it would be a good time for the government to introduce emergency legislation that bins HS2 and reallocates the funding to other more needy programmes, on the basis that home working is likely to remain more prevalent in the future.

Homeworking may be more prevalent in the next 12 months....at which point most will be heartily sick of being stuck on their kitchen table day in day out and will be relishing the opportunity to travel and meet other human beings again, even if on a diminished number of days a week. It may even mean that demand for travel returns even stronger than before after many months of being 'cooped up'.
 

DynamicSpirit

Established Member
Joined
12 Apr 2012
Messages
9,218
Location
SE London
With interest rates falling to record lows, we should be borrowing MORE for EVERYTHING.

That logic might make sense for loans that have to be repaid in 6 months' or a year's time. But doesn't make so much sense for borrowing on 25-year+ timescales for which we have no idea what will happen to interest rates during the loan term.
 

hwl

Established Member
Joined
5 Feb 2012
Messages
8,293
That logic might make sense for loans that have to be repaid in 6 months' or a year's time. But doesn't make so much sense for borrowing on 25-year+ timescales for which we have no idea what will happen to interest rates during the loan term.
but if you are borrowing at fixed rate...
 

DynamicSpirit

Established Member
Joined
12 Apr 2012
Messages
9,218
Location
SE London
Homeworking may be more prevalent in the next 12 months....at which point most will be heartily sick of being stuck on their kitchen table day in day out and will be relishing the opportunity to travel and meet other human beings again.

12 months????? It's been basically one week and I'm already heartily sick of being stuck on my (metaphorical) kitchen table, with virtually all direct contact with other human beings cancelled for the foreseeable future. God knows how I'd be feeling in 12 months... :D
 

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
113,832
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
12 months????? It's been basically one week and I'm already heartily sick of being stuck on my (metaphorical) kitchen table, with virtually all direct contact with other human beings cancelled for the foreseeable future. God knows how I'd be feeling in 12 months... :D

I've worked from home for about 7 years. It's a bit isolating but it's not disastrous. You'd get used to it.
 

DynamicSpirit

Established Member
Joined
12 Apr 2012
Messages
9,218
Location
SE London
but if you are borrowing at fixed rate...

How many financial organisations do you think are going to be willing to take the risk of lending a huge sum of money at a fixed rate that is roughly in line with today's interest rates and which remains fixed for 25+ years?
 

yorkie

Forum Staff
Staff Member
Administrator
Joined
6 Jun 2005
Messages
78,529
Location
Yorkshire
Indeed, one way the Nazis solved unemployment apart from rearming was the building of the autobahns across Germany.

Cancelling HS2 is the last thing this Govt should be considering especially as it provides employment for those currently unemployed and also regardless of Covid19 we should be looking long term and not short term.
Agreed
I've worked from home for about 7 years. It's a bit isolating but it's not disastrous. You'd get used to it.
For some people maybe, but for me the answer is it would be disastrous and I would not get used to it.

Working from home 1 or 2 days a week is about the limit for me. I can see how some people want to work at home 3 days a week but even that would be far too isolating for me.

I had the option of more than doubling my salary, by changing jobs, if I worked from home almost exclusively (except for meetings); I did not take it because of the huge impact that would have had on me.

Yes there will be some drop in demand with more remote working, but there is a limit to that. Also the fact that domestic flights do exist on routes that would be covered by HS2 is another reason why there is a demand for it; those flights should be abolished and HS2 will help with that.
 
Last edited:

squizzler

Established Member
Joined
4 Jan 2017
Messages
1,912
Location
Jersey, Channel Islands
Or an ideal creator of jobs en-masse...

With interest rates falling to record lows, we should be borrowing MORE for EVERYTHING.

I agree with the latter post especially.

The end of WW2 shows that the government will be running the economy on a 'war footing' long after the immediate crisis ends, 'cos we will be broke. In that instance the mobilisation for total war was redirected towards the formation of the Welfare State. The economy will not go back to 'normal'. Rather than demobilising, in fact we need to ramp up the mobilisation of the economy to deal with the climate emergency.

Public transport projects, including HS2, will be the obvious beneficiaries of the state controlled economy for both social and ecological reasons.
 
Last edited:

furnessvale

Established Member
Joined
14 Jul 2015
Messages
4,914
The only way stopping HS2 will work is to reduce passenger trains permanently on the several north south main lines to make room for freight. Can't see that working.
 

xotGD

Established Member
Joined
4 Feb 2017
Messages
7,900
Much long distance travel isn't for commuting, it is for attending meetings. Once more and more people realise that in the vast majority of cases these meetings can take place using Skype, Teams or similar software, the requirement to get up at stupid o'clock to get there for a face to face will significantly diminish.

On Thursday I was supposed to be at a meeting in London. Did it remotely, no problem, with 6 of us connecting in from home. And instead of getting home after 9pm I had the whole evening to myself.

I expect to see a permanent reduction in intercity passengers after this. Whether that means that the business case for HS2 is totally shot, who knows?
 

tbtc

Veteran Member
Joined
16 Dec 2008
Messages
18,061
Location
Reston City Centre
As I've said on other threads, there's a remarkable disconnect that people have between "the rules that apply to HS2" and "the rules that apply to every other railway project" - e.g. the pearl clutching at the idea of HS2 cutting down some trees and compulsorily purchasing some houses but people seem perfectly relaxed about doing the same when it comes to following some long abandoned alignment originally built by Victorian speculators - people argue in favour of electrification of the Chiltern line to permit fast accelerating EMUs but sneer at the idea of HS2 because "who wants to get from Birmingham to London faster?".

So, if millions of people start working from home then I'd respectfully suggest that pretty much any railway project might as well be postponed - funny how the potentially huge drop in passenger numbers isn't a reason to give up on Platforms 15/16 at Manchester Piccadilly or more capacity at Welwyn or re-opening a line to some small rural place like Wisbech though, eh?

I'd be interested to see someone suggest that there's no point in re-introducing direct London trains to places like Huddersfield or of electrifying the Midland Main Line or having a proper service to places like Okehampton because the large numbers of people working from home mean that passenger numbers across the country will plummet - but I doubt it. Generally Coronavirus (and the after effects of this pandemic) seem to just be a justification for people to argue in favour of what they always argued in favour of.

According to many posts on here, if you cancel HS2, the money for it actually ceases to exist, since it consists of (very cheap) borrowing against future revenues.

That's my understanding - HS2 will mean significantly more seats on the London - Birmingham - Manchester/ Leeds corridors (both the seats on a 400m long HS2 train and all of the extra seats that you can sell to passengers at places like Milton Keynes where much of the capacity through the station is taken up by non-stop services). If you have no HS2 then you lose all of that additional ticketing income - a lot of people are looking at the price tag in isolation rather than seeing the bigger picture.

THat's not to say that there won't be a drop in passenger numbers across the country - maybe there will - it feels far too early to make decisions over a hundred billion pound project until we are back on a more "regular" footing - but passenger numbers have gone up and up despite over twenty years of electronic communication - we must have had video conferencing for at least fifteen years and yet passenger numbers have still increased - obviously they can't increase forever but people would have been making similar arguments against things like HS2 twenty years ago.

HS2 isn't isolation though - if demand does go significantly down then we'll have to turn all of those "LNER/GWR should extend all of their five coach IET to nine or ten coaches" threads into ones suggesting that they shouldn't have ordered any nine coach ones because even the five coach trains aren't that busy - instead of suggesting we re-double lines we'll argue in favour of singling some existing double track!
 

Purple Orange

On Moderation
Joined
26 Dec 2019
Messages
3,459
Location
The North
As I've said on other threads, there's a remarkable disconnect that people have between "the rules that apply to HS2" and "the rules that apply to every other railway project" - e.g. the pearl clutching at the idea of HS2 cutting down some trees and compulsorily purchasing some houses but people seem perfectly relaxed about doing the same when it comes to following some long abandoned alignment originally built by Victorian speculators - people argue in favour of electrification of the Chiltern line to permit fast accelerating EMUs but sneer at the idea of HS2 because "who wants to get from Birmingham to London faster?".

So, if millions of people start working from home then I'd respectfully suggest that pretty much any railway project might as well be postponed - funny how the potentially huge drop in passenger numbers isn't a reason to give up on Platforms 15/16 at Manchester Piccadilly or more capacity at Welwyn or re-opening a line to some small rural place like Wisbech though, eh?

I'd be interested to see someone suggest that there's no point in re-introducing direct London trains to places like Huddersfield or of electrifying the Midland Main Line or having a proper service to places like Okehampton because the large numbers of people working from home mean that passenger numbers across the country will plummet - but I doubt it. Generally Coronavirus (and the after effects of this pandemic) seem to just be a justification for people to argue in favour of what they always argued in favour of.



That's my understanding - HS2 will mean significantly more seats on the London - Birmingham - Manchester/ Leeds corridors (both the seats on a 400m long HS2 train and all of the extra seats that you can sell to passengers at places like Milton Keynes where much of the capacity through the station is taken up by non-stop services). If you have no HS2 then you lose all of that additional ticketing income - a lot of people are looking at the price tag in isolation rather than seeing the bigger picture.

THat's not to say that there won't be a drop in passenger numbers across the country - maybe there will - it feels far too early to make decisions over a hundred billion pound project until we are back on a more "regular" footing - but passenger numbers have gone up and up despite over twenty years of electronic communication - we must have had video conferencing for at least fifteen years and yet passenger numbers have still increased - obviously they can't increase forever but people would have been making similar arguments against things like HS2 twenty years ago.

HS2 isn't isolation though - if demand does go significantly down then we'll have to turn all of those "LNER/GWR should extend all of their five coach IET to nine or ten coaches" threads into ones suggesting that they shouldn't have ordered any nine coach ones because even the five coach trains aren't that busy - instead of suggesting we re-double lines we'll argue in favour of singling some existing double track!

Very good points. I would also argue the environmental impact on localised pollution on our roads. When the Tyne & Wear metro extension opened, I lived in Newcastle and the step change in usage of the rail lines in to Newcastle from Sunderland was quite impressive. People made fewer car journeys and more metro journeys were made than there was train journeys. These days I live in Cheshire and I hope to see more of a metro-like frequency, particularly from Cheadle Hulme and the Styal Line in to Manchester Piccadilly. The positive impact it would have on the Kingsway road or A6 will be greatly appreciated compared to what it would be if we do nothing.

As I have alluded to it, I think it would be folly to allocate thr paths freed up on the existing network to more long distance or ‘semi-fast’ services. Manchester, Birmingham, Leeds and London must see an increase in ‘all-stop’ services.
 

Nick Ashwell

Member
Joined
20 Dec 2018
Messages
463
Much long distance travel isn't for commuting, it is for attending meetings. Once more and more people realise that in the vast majority of cases these meetings can take place using Skype, Teams or similar software, the requirement to get up at stupid o'clock to get there for a face to face will significantly diminish.

On Thursday I was supposed to be at a meeting in London. Did it remotely, no problem, with 6 of us connecting in from home. And instead of getting home after 9pm I had the whole evening to myself.

I expect to see a permanent reduction in intercity passengers after this. Whether that means that the business case for HS2 is totally shot, who knows?
I do both face to face and Internet meetings and they are completely different. Being with some is really important to doing business, it's much harder to build relationships long distance
 

VT 390

Established Member
Joined
7 Dec 2018
Messages
1,754
Even if there is a drop in passengers for a few years eventually HS2 will be needed so rather than just delaying it if would be better just to get it built so at least it will be ready for when it is needed.
 

HSTEd

Veteran Member
Joined
14 Jul 2011
Messages
20,375
Even if we accept the premise that home working will permanently end passenger growth on the railway, it will become necessary for the railway to become a leaner, more efficient machine to survive in that environment.

Even though it likes to dress it all up as "enhancements", a lot of public money is still expended supporting railway operations, thanks to our old-fashioned and worn out infrastructure.
HS2 will help to mitigate these problems and is a step towards a modern high performance railway.

The GC-gauge station approaches at Birmingham and Manchester alone are a game-changer, much less the 400m platforms.

In this hypothetical future we would see a lot of "rationalisation" on the railway but coupled with enhancements so we still end up with better service than we otherwise would have.
 

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
113,832
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
Commuting is only a small part of why we travel by train.

Indeed so, and is likely to be a minority use of HS2 because the fares are likely to be a bit high for it to be worth it. However, people are learning how to do business meetings remotely too, and when you consider the cost savings of that companies may well cut back a bit on that too.
 

Bald Rick

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Sep 2010
Messages
35,965
Indeed so, and is likely to be a minority use of HS2 because the fares are likely to be a bit high for it to be worth it. However, people are learning how to do business meetings remotely too, and when you consider the cost savings of that companies may well cut back a bit on that too.

Maybe. Maybe not. I’m finding that the meetings I am having remotely are far less effective and less efficient. You might say that it will improve with practice - and maybe it will. But people will still want to travel, indeed need to travel.

And in any event, just about the busiest time for long distance services on the WCML and ECML is Sunday after lunch, when Business travel is essentially zero.
 

najaB

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Aug 2011
Messages
33,734
Location
Scotland
How many financial organisations do you think are going to be willing to take the risk of lending a huge sum of money at a fixed rate that is roughly in line with today's interest rates and which remains fixed for 25+ years?
Any that want long-term, guaranteed fixed income e.g. pension funds.
 

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
113,832
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
And in any event, just about the busiest time for long distance services on the WCML and ECML is Sunday after lunch, when Business travel is essentially zero.

You would probably find, if you looked at it, that a lot of that is weekly commuting, be that the more formal kind (staying in hotels and the company paying) or be it people spending the week in a postage stamp studio flat in London and the weekend with their family in Yorkshire.

Remote working could put a massive dent in that.
 

Bald Rick

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Sep 2010
Messages
35,965
You would probably find, if you looked at it, that a lot of that is weekly commuting, be that the more formal kind (staying in hotels and the company paying) or be it people spending the week in a postage stamp studio flat in London and the weekend with their family in Yorkshire.

Remote working could put a massive dent in that.

Not in my experience. It seems to be people going away for lesirute trips for the weekend. The (full) weekly commuters I know (about 20 of them) exclusively travel on Monday mornings.
 

Ianno87

Veteran Member
Joined
3 May 2015
Messages
15,214
Indeed so, and is likely to be a minority use of HS2 because the fares are likely to be a bit high for it to be worth it. However, people are learning how to do business meetings remotely too, and when you consider the cost savings of that companies may well cut back a bit on that too.

Maybe. Maybe not. I’m finding that the meetings I am having remotely are far less effective and less efficient. You might say that it will improve with practice - and maybe it will. But people will still want to travel, indeed need to travel.

And in any event, just about the busiest time for long distance services on the WCML and ECML is Sunday after lunch, when Business travel is essentially zero.

Like I've said over on the other thread, HS2 may make it feasible in a post-Covid commuting world to live in say, Warrington*, and jump on an HS2 train once or twice a week to pop into the office...and work at home the rest of the time.

*Or, rather, a Warrington resident to take a job in London without needing to relocate for ir.
 

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
113,832
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
Like I've said over on the other thread, HS2 may make it feasible in a post-Covid commuting world to live in say, Warrington*, and jump on an HS2 train once or twice a week to pop into the office...and work at home the rest of the time.

*Or, rather, a Warrington resident to take a job in London without needing to relocate for ir.

I have contemplated moving away from the South East on that sort of basis and I know my employer isn't opposed to it (because I've asked them). Entirely workable even pre-HS2.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top